Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA最新文献_第3页

Effects of vaccination on the two-strain transmission dynamics of COVID-19: Dougherty County, Georgia, USA, as a case study. 疫苗接种对COVID-19两株传播动态的影响:以美国乔治亚州多尔蒂县为例

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqad007

Buddhi Pantha, Jemal Mohammed-Awel, Naveen K Vaidya

{"title":"Effects of vaccination on the two-strain transmission dynamics of COVID-19: Dougherty County, Georgia, USA, as a case study.","authors":"Buddhi Pantha, Jemal Mohammed-Awel, Naveen K Vaidya","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqad007","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqad007","url":null,"abstract":"The emergence of multiple strains of SARS-COV-2 has made it complicated to predict and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Although some vaccines have been effective in reducing the severity of the disease, these vaccines are designed for a specific strain of the virus and are usually less effective for other strains. In addition, the waning of vaccine-induced immunity, reinfection of recovered people, and incomplete vaccination are challenging to the vaccination program. In this study, we developed a detailed model to describe the multi-strain transmission dynamics of COVID-19 under vaccination. We implemented our model to examine the impact of inter-strain transmission competition under vaccination on the critical outbreak indicators: hospitalized cases, undiagnosed cases, basic reproduction numbers, and the overtake-time by a new strain to the existing strain. In particular, our results on the dependence of the overtake-time on vaccination rates, progression-to-infectious rate, and relative transmission rates provide helpful information for managing a pandemic with circulating two strains. Furthermore, our results suggest that a reduction in the relative transmission rates and a decrease in vaccination dropout rates or an increase in vaccination rates help keep the reproduction number of both strains below unity and keep the number of hospitalized cases and undiagnosed cases at their lowest levels. Moreover, our analysis shows that the second and booster-dose vaccinations are useful for further reducing the reproduction number.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":" ","pages":"308-326"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"107593169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Which airways should we treat? Structure-function relationships and estimation of the singular input modes from the forward model alone. 我们应该治疗哪种呼吸道？结构-函数关系以及仅从正向模型对奇异输入模式的估计。

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqad006

Graham M Donovan

引用次数: 0

Pattern formation and travelling waves in a multiphase moving boundary model of tumour growth. 肿瘤生长多相移动边界模型的模式形成和行波。

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqad008

Jacob M Jepson, Reuben D O'Dea, John Billingham, Nabil T Fadai

{"title":"Pattern formation and travelling waves in a multiphase moving boundary model of tumour growth.","authors":"Jacob M Jepson, Reuben D O'Dea, John Billingham, Nabil T Fadai","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqad008","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqad008","url":null,"abstract":"We employ the multiphase, moving boundary model of Byrne et al. (2003, Appl. Math. Lett., 16, 567-573) that describes the evolution of a motile, viscous tumour cell phase and an inviscid extracellular liquid phase. This model comprises two partial differential equations that govern the cell volume fraction and the cell velocity, together with a moving boundary condition for the tumour edge, and here we characterize and analyse its travelling-wave and pattern-forming behaviour. Numerical simulations of the model indicate that patterned solutions can be obtained, which correspond to multiple regions of high cell density separated by regions of low cell density. In other parameter regimes, solutions of the model can develop into a forward- or backward-moving travelling wave, corresponding to tumour growth or extinction, respectively. A travelling-wave analysis allows us to find the corresponding wave speed, as well as criteria for the growth or extinction of the tumour. Furthermore, a stability analysis of these travelling-wave solutions provides us with criteria for the occurrence of patterned solutions. Finally, we discuss how the initial cell distribution, as well as parameters related to cellular motion and cell-liquid drag, control the qualitative features of patterned solutions.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":" ","pages":"327-347"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138300845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lumped parameter models for two-ventricle and healthy and failing extracardiac Fontan circulations 双心室、健康和衰竭心外循环的集总参数模型

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab012

Matthew G Doyle;Marina Chugunova;S Lucy Roche;James P Keener

引用次数: 1

Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment 流行病增长的同步性和选择性遏制的不可能性

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab013

Jan C Budich;Emil J Bergholtz

{"title":"Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment","authors":"Jan C Budich;Emil J Bergholtz","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab013","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqab013","url":null,"abstract":"Containment, aiming to prevent the epidemic stage of community-spreading altogether, and mitigation, aiming to merely ‘flatten the curve’ of a wide-ranged outbreak, constitute two qualitatively different approaches to combating an epidemic through non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we study a simple model of epidemic dynamics separating the population into two groups, namely a low-risk group and a high-risk group, for which different strategies are pursued. Due to synchronization effects, we find that maintaining a slower epidemic growth behaviour for the high-risk group is unstable against any finite coupling between the two groups. More precisely, the density of infected individuals in the two groups qualitatively evolves very similarly, apart from a small time delay and an overall scaling factor quantifying the coupling between the groups. Hence, selective containment of the epidemic in a targeted (high-risk) group is practically impossible whenever the surrounding society implements a mitigated community-spreading. We relate our general findings to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":"38 4","pages":"467-473"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=9686632","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39555501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accurate numerical simulation of electrodiffusion and water movement in brain tissue 脑组织中电扩散和水运动的精确数值模拟

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab016

Ada J Ellingsrud;Nicolas Boullé;Patrick E Farrell;Marie E Rognes

{"title":"Accurate numerical simulation of electrodiffusion and water movement in brain tissue","authors":"Ada J Ellingsrud;Nicolas Boullé;Patrick E Farrell;Marie E Rognes","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab016","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqab016","url":null,"abstract":"Mathematical modelling of ionic electrodiffusion and water movement is emerging as a powerful avenue of investigation to provide a new physiological insight into brain homeostasis. However, in order to provide solid answers and resolve controversies, the accuracy of the predictions is essential. Ionic electrodiffusion models typically comprise non-trivial systems of non-linear and highly coupled partial and ordinary differential equations that govern phenomena on disparate time scales. Here, we study numerical challenges related to approximating these systems. We consider a homogenized model for electrodiffusion and osmosis in brain tissue and present and evaluate different associated finite element-based splitting schemes in terms of their numerical properties, including accuracy, convergence and computational efficiency for both idealized scenarios and for the physiologically relevant setting of cortical spreading depression (CSD). We find that the schemes display optimal convergence rates in space for problems with smooth manufactured solutions. However, the physiological CSD setting is challenging: we find that the accurate computation of CSD wave characteristics (wave speed and wave width) requires a very fine spatial and fine temporal resolution.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":"38 4","pages":"516-551"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel7/8016811/9686629/09686655.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39743841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

Diffusion of dermatological irritant in drying laundered cloth 皮肤刺激物在干洗布中的扩散

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab014

P Broadbridge;B S Tilley

引用次数: 0

A deterministic model for non-monotone relationship between translation of upstream and downstream open reading frames 上游和下游开放阅读框翻译非单调关系的确定性模型

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab015

D E Andreev;P V Baranov;A Milogorodskii;D Rachinskii

{"title":"A deterministic model for non-monotone relationship between translation of upstream and downstream open reading frames","authors":"D E Andreev;P V Baranov;A Milogorodskii;D Rachinskii","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab015","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqab015","url":null,"abstract":"Totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) modelling was shown to offer a parsimonious explanation for the experimentally confirmed ability of a single upstream open reading frames (uORFs) to upregulate downstream translation during the integrated stress response. As revealed by numerical simulations, the model predicts that reducing the density of scanning ribosomes upstream of certain uORFs increases the flow of ribosomes downstream. To gain a better insight into the mechanism which ensures the non-monotone relation between the upstream and downstream flows, in this work, we propose a phenomenological deterministic model approximating the TASEP model of the translation process. We establish the existence of a stationary solution featuring the decreasing density along the uORF for the deterministic model. Further, we find an explicit non-monotone relation between the upstream ribosome density and the downstream flow for the stationary solution in the limit of increasing uORF length and increasingly leaky initiation. The stationary distribution of the TASEP model, the stationary solution of the deterministic model and the explicit limit are compared numerically.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":"38 4","pages":"490-515"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39576651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A mathematical model of cardiovascular dynamics for the diagnosis and prognosis of hemorrhagic shock 失血性休克诊断及预后的心血管动力学数学模型

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab011

Laura D'Orsi;Luciano Curcio;Fabio Cibella;Alessandro Borri;Lilach Gavish;Arik Eisenkraft;Andrea De Gaetano

{"title":"A mathematical model of cardiovascular dynamics for the diagnosis and prognosis of hemorrhagic shock","authors":"Laura D'Orsi;Luciano Curcio;Fabio Cibella;Alessandro Borri;Lilach Gavish;Arik Eisenkraft;Andrea De Gaetano","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab011","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqab011","url":null,"abstract":"A variety of mathematical models of the cardiovascular system have been suggested over several years in order to describe the time-course of a series of physiological variables (i.e. heart rate, cardiac output, arterial pressure) relevant for the compensation mechanisms to perturbations, such as severe haemorrhage. The current study provides a simple but realistic mathematical description of cardiovascular dynamics that may be useful in the assessment and prognosis of hemorrhagic shock. The present work proposes a first version of a differential-algebraic equations model, the model dynamical ODE model for haemorrhage (dODEg). The model consists of 10 differential and 14 algebraic equations, incorporating 61 model parameters. This model is capable of replicating the changes in heart rate, mean arterial pressure and cardiac output after the onset of bleeding observed in four experimental animal preparations and fits well to the experimental data. By predicting the time-course of the physiological response after haemorrhage, the dODEg model presented here may be of significant value for the quantitative assessment of conventional or novel therapeutic regimens. The model may be applied to the prediction of survivability and to the determination of the urgency of evacuation towards definitive surgical treatment in the operational setting.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":"38 4","pages":"417-441"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39416172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing 不确定分类:诊断性抗体检测的数据分析

Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqab007

Paul N Patrone;Anthony J Kearsley

{"title":"Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing","authors":"Paul N Patrone;Anthony J Kearsley","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab007","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imammb/dqab007","url":null,"abstract":"Formulating accurate and robust classification strategies is a key challenge of developing diagnostic and antibody tests. Methods that do not explicitly account for disease prevalence and uncertainty therein can lead to significant classification errors. We present a novel method that leverages optimal decision theory to address this problem. As a preliminary step, we develop an analysis that uses an assumed prevalence and conditional probability models of diagnostic measurement outcomes to define optimal (in the sense of minimizing rates of false positives and false negatives) classification domains. Critically, we demonstrate how this strategy can be generalized to a setting in which the prevalence is unknown by either (i) defining a third class of hold-out samples that require further testing or (ii) using an adaptive algorithm to estimate prevalence prior to defining classification domains. We also provide examples for a recently published SARS-CoV-2 serology test and discuss how measurement uncertainty (e.g. associated with instrumentation) can be incorporated into the analysis. We find that our new strategy decreases classification error by up to a decade relative to more traditional methods based on confidence intervals. Moreover, it establishes a theoretical foundation for generalizing techniques such as receiver operating characteristics by connecting them to the broader field of optimization.","PeriodicalId":94130,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA","volume":"38 3","pages":"396-416"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel7/8016811/9579095/09579102.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39307448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9