Bulletin of Mathematical Biology最新文献_第4页

Mathematical Modeling of Influenza Dynamics: Integrating Seasonality and Gradual Waning Immunity. 流感动力学的数学建模：整合季节性和逐渐减弱的免疫力。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01454-w

Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig, Gilberto González-Parra, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva

{"title":"Mathematical Modeling of Influenza Dynamics: Integrating Seasonality and Gradual Waning Immunity.","authors":"Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig, Gilberto González-Parra, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01454-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01454-w","url":null,"abstract":"The dynamics of influenza virus spread is one of the most complex to model due to two crucial factors involved: seasonality and immunity. These factors have been typically addressed separately in mathematical modeling in epidemiology. In this paper, we present a mathematical modeling approach to consider simultaneously both forced-seasonality and gradual waning immunity. A seasonal SIRn model that integrates seasonality and gradual waning immunity is constructed. Seasonality has been modeled classically, by defining the transmission rate as a periodic function, with higher values in winter seasons. The progressive decline of immunity after infection has been introduced into the model structure by considering multiple recovered subpopulations or recovery states with transmission rates attenuated by a susceptibility factor that varies with the age of infection. To show the applicability of the proposed mathematical modeling approach to a real-world scenario, we have carried out a calibration of the model with the data series of influenza infections reported in the 2010-2020 period at the General Hospital of Castellón de la Plana, Spain. The results of the case study show the feasibility of the mathematical approach. We provide a discussion of the main features and insights of the proposed mathematical modeling approach presented in this study.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 6","pages":"75"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12084257/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144086000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Complex Algal Dynamics and Optimal Control with Algicidal Activity and Reabsorption of Algal Cell Contents. 藻类的复杂动力学与最优控制与杀藻活性和藻类细胞内容物的重吸收。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01453-x

Wei Wang, Chunxiao She, Hao Wang

{"title":"Complex Algal Dynamics and Optimal Control with Algicidal Activity and Reabsorption of Algal Cell Contents.","authors":"Wei Wang, Chunxiao She, Hao Wang","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01453-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01453-x","url":null,"abstract":"Algaecides utilizing bacteriolytic algae are considered as a promising approach for algae control. These bacteria inhibit the continuous reproduction of algae cells in various ways, including lysing the cells, which leads to the release of cellular contents and affects the levels of nitrogen and phosphorus in the environment. In this paper, we establish a novel mathematical model with algicidal activities and the reabsorption of algal cell contents. The model exhibits complex dynamical phenomena: (i) backward and forward bifurcations; (ii) transcritical bifurcation and saddle-node bifurcation discussed via Sotomayor's theorem; (iii) Hopf bifurcation; (iv) the codimension 2 bifurcations, exemplified by the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, via the methodologies of normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. We also obtain an explicit formula for the ultimate lower bound of algal bloom. Sensitivity analysis of the basic ecological reproductive indices <math><msub><mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn></msub> </math> is conducted, and the optimal control problem is formulated by integrating environmental factors and physical algal control methods. The analysis indicates that using algicidal bacteria to lyse algal cells can result in two scenarios: algicidal dominance and nutrient supplementation dominance. The former effectively curbs the sustained reproduction of algal cells and is more effective than physical algal control methods.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 6","pages":"72"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144076130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On Discretely Structured Growth Models and Their Moments. 关于离散结构增长模型及其时刻。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01446-w

Benjamin J Walker, Helen M Byrne

引用次数: 0

Asymptotic Enumeration of Normal and Hybridization Networks via Tree Decoration. 通过树装饰的正态和杂交网络的渐近枚举。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01444-y

Michael Fuchs, Mike Steel, Qiang Zhang

引用次数: 0

Matching Habitat Choice and the Evolution of a Species' Range. 匹配生境选择与物种范围的进化。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01445-x

Farshad Shirani, Judith R Miller

{"title":"Matching Habitat Choice and the Evolution of a Species' Range.","authors":"Farshad Shirani, Judith R Miller","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01445-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01445-x","url":null,"abstract":"Natural selection is not the only mechanism that promotes adaptation of an organism to its environment. Another mechanism is matching habitat choice, in which individuals sense and disperse toward habitat best suited to their phenotype. This can in principle facilitate rapid adaptation, enhance range expansion, and promote genetic differentiation, reproductive isolation, and speciation. However, empirical evidence that confirms the evolution of matching habitat choice in nature is limited. Here we obtain theoretical evidence that phenotype-optimal dispersal, a particular form of matching habitat choice, is likely to evolve only in the presence of a steep environmental gradient. Such a gradient may be steeper than the gradient the majority of species typically experience in nature, adding to the collection of possible explanations for the scarcity of evidence for matching habitat choice. We draw this conclusion from numerical solutions of a system of deterministic partial differential equations for a population's density along with the mean and variance of a fitness-related quantitative phenotypic trait such as body size. In steep gradients, we find that phenotype-optimal dispersal facilitates rapid adaptation on single-generation time scales, reduces within-population trait variation, increases range expansion speed, and enhances the chance of survival in rapidly changing environments. Moreover, it creates a directed gene flow that compensates for the maladaptive core-to-edge effects of random gene flow caused by random movements. These results suggest that adaptive gene flow to range margins, together with substantially reduced trait variation at central populations, may be hallmarks of phenotype-optimal dispersal in natural populations. Further, slowly-growing species under strong natural selection may particularly benefit from evolving phenotype-optimal dispersal.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 6","pages":"70"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12058903/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143976853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Theoretical Framework to Quantify the Tradeoff Between Individual and Population Benefits of Expanded Antibiotic Use. 一个量化扩大抗生素使用的个人和群体利益权衡的理论框架。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01432-2

Cormac R LaPrete, Sharia M Ahmed, Damon J A Toth, Jody R Reimer, Valerie M Vaughn, Frederick R Adler, Lindsay T Keegan

{"title":"A Theoretical Framework to Quantify the Tradeoff Between Individual and Population Benefits of Expanded Antibiotic Use.","authors":"Cormac R LaPrete, Sharia M Ahmed, Damon J A Toth, Jody R Reimer, Valerie M Vaughn, Frederick R Adler, Lindsay T Keegan","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01432-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01432-2","url":null,"abstract":"The use of antibiotics during a disease outbreak presents a critical tradeoff between immediate treatment benefits to the individual and the long-term risk to the population. Typically, the extensive use of antibiotics has been thought to increase selective pressures, leading to resistance. This study explores scenarios where expanded antibiotic treatment can be advantageous for both individual and population health. We develop a mathematical framework to assess the impacts on outbreak dynamics of choosing to treat moderate infections not treated under current guidelines, focusing on cholera as a case study. We derive conditions under which treating moderate infections can sufficiently decrease transmission and reduce the total number of antibiotic doses administered. We identify two critical thresholds: the Outbreak Prevention Threshold (OPT), where expanded treatment reduces the reproductive number below 1 and halts transmission, and the Dose Utilization Threshold (DUT), where expanded treatment results in fewer total antibiotic doses used than under current guidelines. For cholera, we find that treating moderate infections can feasibly stop an outbreak when the untreated reproductive number is less than 1.42 and will result in fewer does used compared to current guidelines when the untreated reproductive number is less than 1.53. These findings demonstrate that conditions exist under which expanding treatment to include moderate infections can reduce disease spread and the selective pressure for antibiotic resistance. These findings extend to other pathogens and outbreak scenarios, suggesting potential targets for optimized treatment strategies that balance public health benefits and antibiotic stewardship.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 6","pages":"68"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12043784/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143966187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics: Insights into Viral Clearance and Immune Synergy. 模拟SARS-CoV-2感染动力学：对病毒清除和免疫协同作用的见解。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01442-0

Lele Fan, Zhipeng Qiu, Qi Deng, Ting Guo, Libin Rong

{"title":"Modeling SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics: Insights into Viral Clearance and Immune Synergy.","authors":"Lele Fan, Zhipeng Qiu, Qi Deng, Ting Guo, Libin Rong","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01442-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01442-0","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the mechanisms of interaction between SARS-CoV-2 infection and the immune system is crucial for developing effective treatment strategies against COVID-19. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated to investigate the interactions among SARS-CoV-2 infection, cellular immunity, and humoral immunity. Clinical data from eight asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 patients in Munich are used to fit the model, and the dynamics of natural killer (NK) cells, cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), B cells, and antibodies are further explored using the average of the best-fitting parameter values. Subsequently, the impact of NK cells, CTLs, B cells, and antibodies on SARS-CoV-2 infection is numerically investigated. The results indicate that (i) the synergy of NK cells, CTLs, and antibodies leads to a rapid decrease in the viral load during SARS-CoV-2 infection; (ii) antibodies play a crucial role compared to other immune mechanisms, and enhancing B cell stimulation may be more effective in clearing the virus from the lungs; (iii) in terms of cytotoxic effects, CTLs are stronger and more sustained than NK cells. Furthermore, the existence and local stability of the model's equilibria are fully classified, and complex dynamics of the model are further investigated using bifurcation theory, revealing multistability phenomena, including multiple attractors and periodic solutions. These findings suggest potential uncertainty and diversity in SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 6","pages":"67"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143980873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Risk-Structured Model of the Influence of Mental Health on Opioid Addiction. 心理健康对阿片类药物成瘾影响的风险结构模型

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01431-3

Katelyn R Newton, London M Luttrell, Julie C Blackwood, Kathryn J Montovan, Eli E Goldwyn

{"title":"A Risk-Structured Model of the Influence of Mental Health on Opioid Addiction.","authors":"Katelyn R Newton, London M Luttrell, Julie C Blackwood, Kathryn J Montovan, Eli E Goldwyn","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01431-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01431-3","url":null,"abstract":"In 2021, over 80,000 of the 107,622 overdose deaths in the United States involved opioids, with opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal overdoses imposing economic costs exceeding $1 trillion in 2017. Mathematical modeling provides an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the opioid epidemic and evaluating the potential benefits of different treatment and prevention strategies. In particular, we extend the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered paradigm for modeling infectious diseases to the opioid crisis. While existing compartmental models of OUD often assume equal risk of addiction across individuals, this assumption overlooks the significant role of risk heterogeneity. Unlike previous models that assume uniform addiction risk, our model incorporates risk stratification to account for the disproportionate burden among individuals with mental health disorders, who represent 20% of the U.S. population but account for over half of opioid prescriptions and misuse. Our compartmental model distinguishes between addiction pathways initiated by prescription opioids and those driven by social influences. Using existing data, we calibrate the model to estimate key parameters and quantify the impact of risk heterogeneity, offering insights to the addiction process.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 5","pages":"66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Network Based Model for Predicting Spatial Progression of Metastasis. 基于网络的肿瘤转移空间进展预测模型。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01441-1

Khimeer Singh, Byron A Jacobs

{"title":"A Network Based Model for Predicting Spatial Progression of Metastasis.","authors":"Khimeer Singh, Byron A Jacobs","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01441-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01441-1","url":null,"abstract":"Metastatic cancer is reported to have a mortality rate of 90%. Understanding the underlying principles of metastasis and quantifying them through mathematical modelling provides insights into potential treatment regimes. This work presents a partial differential equation based mathematical model embedded on a network, representing the organs and the blood vessels between them, with the aim of predicting likely secondary metastatic sites. Through this framework the relationship between metastasis and blood flow and between metastasis and the diffusive behaviour of cancer is explored. An analysis of the model predictions showed a good correlation with clinical data for some cancer types, particularly for cancers originating in the gut and liver. The model also predicts an inverse relationship between blood velocity and the concentration of cancer cells in secondary organs. Finally, for anisotropic diffusive behaviour, where the cancer experiences greater diffusivity in one direction, metastatic efficiency decreased. This is aligned with the clinical observation that gliomas of the brain, which typically show anisotropic diffusive behaviour, exhibit fewer metastases. The investigation yields some valuable results for clinical practitioners and researchers-as it clarifies some aspects of cancer that have hitherto been difficult to study, such as the impact of differing diffusive behaviours and blood flow rates on the global spread of cancer. The model provides a good framework for studying cancer progression using cancer-specific information when simulating metastasis.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 5","pages":"65"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11982130/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143810508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Different Degrees of Leadership on Collective Navigation in Follower-Leader Systems. 不同领导程度对追随-领导系统中集体导航的影响。

IF 2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01435-z

Sara Bernardi, Kevin J Painter

{"title":"The Impact of Different Degrees of Leadership on Collective Navigation in Follower-Leader Systems.","authors":"Sara Bernardi, Kevin J Painter","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01435-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01435-z","url":null,"abstract":"In both animal and cell populations, the presence of leaders often underlies the success of collective migration processes, which we characterise by a group maintaining a cohesive configuration that consistently moves toward a target. We extend a recent non-local hyperbolic model for follower-leader systems to investigate different degrees of leadership. Specifically, we consider three levels of leadership: indifferent leaders, who do not alter their movement according to followers; observant leaders, who attempt to remain connected with the followers, but do not allow followers to affect their desired alignment; and persuadable leaders, who integrate their attempt to reach some target with the alignment of all neighbours, both followers and leaders. A combination of analysis and numerical simulations is used to investigate under which conditions each degree of leadership allows successful collective movement to a destination. We find that the indifferent leaders' strategy can result in a cohesive and target-directed migration only for short times. Observant and persuadable leaders instead provide robust guidance, showing that the optimal leader behavior depends on the connection between the migrating individuals: if alignment is low, greater follower influence on leaders is beneficial for successful guidance; otherwise, it can be detrimental and may generate various unsuccessful swarming dynamics.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 5","pages":"64"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11976358/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143794693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0