Biometrika最新文献

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Sensitivity models and bounds under sequential unmeasured confounding in longitudinal studies 纵向研究中连续未测量混杂情况下的灵敏度模型和界限
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae044
Zhiqiang Tan
{"title":"Sensitivity models and bounds under sequential unmeasured confounding in longitudinal studies","authors":"Zhiqiang Tan","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae044","url":null,"abstract":"Consider sensitivity analysis for causal inference in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and covariates. It is of interest to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual-outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding. We formulate several multi-period sensitivity models to relax the corresponding versions of the assumption of sequential non-confounding. The primary sensitivity model involves only counterfactual outcomes, whereas the joint and product sensitivity models involve both counterfactual covariates and outcomes. We establish and compare explicit representations for the sharp and conservative bounds at the population level through convex optimization, depending only on the observed data. These results provide for the first time a satisfactory generalization from the marginal sensitivity model in the cross-sectional setting.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142203421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Studies in the history of probability and statistics, LI: the first conditional logistic regression 概率论与统计学史研究,LI:第一个条件逻辑回归
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae038
J A Hanley
{"title":"Studies in the history of probability and statistics, LI: the first conditional logistic regression","authors":"J A Hanley","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae038","url":null,"abstract":"Statisticians and epidemiologists generally cite the publications by Prentice & Breslow and by Breslow et al. in 1978 as the first description and use of conditional logistic regression, while economists cite the 1973 book chapter by Nobel laureate McFadden. We describe the until-now-unrecognized use of, and way of fitting, this model in 1934 by Lionel Penrose and Ronald Fisher.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141935803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust Covariate-Balancing Method in Learning Optimal Individualized Treatment Regimes 学习最佳个性化治疗方案的稳健协变量平衡法
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae036
Canhui Li, Donglin Zeng, Wensheng Zhu
{"title":"Robust Covariate-Balancing Method in Learning Optimal Individualized Treatment Regimes","authors":"Canhui Li, Donglin Zeng, Wensheng Zhu","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae036","url":null,"abstract":"Summary One of the most important problems in precision medicine is to find the optimal individualized treatment rule, which is designed to recommend treatment decisions and maximize overall clinical benefit to patients based on their individual characteristics. Typically, the expected clinical outcome is required to be estimated first, in which an outcome regression model or a propensity score model usually needs to be assumed for most of the existing statistical methods. However, if either model assumption is invalid, the estimated treatment regime is not reliable. In this article, we first define a contrast value function, which is the basis of the study for individualized treatment regimes. Then we construct a hybrid estimator of the contrast value function, by combining two types of estimation methods. We further propose a robust covariate-balancing estimator of the contrast value function by combining the inverse probability weighted method and matching method, which is based on the covariate balancing propensity score proposed by Imai and Ratkovic (2014). Theoretical results show that the proposed estimator is doubly robust, that is, it is consistent if either the propensity score model or the matching is correct. Based on a large number of simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator outperforms existing methods. Lastly, the proposed method is illustrated through analysis of the SUPPORT study.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"337 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141740777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal inference with hidden mediators 隐性中介的因果推断
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae037
AmirEmad Ghassami, Alan Yang, Ilya Shpitser, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen
{"title":"Causal inference with hidden mediators","authors":"AmirEmad Ghassami, Alan Yang, Ilya Shpitser, Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae037","url":null,"abstract":"Summary Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference approach to settings where identification of causal effects hinges upon a set of mediators which are not observed, yet error prone proxies of the hidden mediators are measured. Specifically, (i) we establish causal hidden mediation analysis, which extends classical causal mediation analysis methods for identifying natural direct and indirect effects under no unmeasured confounding to a setting where the mediator of interest is hidden, but proxies of it are available. (ii) We establish a hidden front-door criterion, which extends the classical front-door criterion to allow for hidden mediators for which proxies are available. (iii) We show that the identification of a certain causal effect called population intervention indirect effect remains possible with hidden mediators in settings where challenges in (i) and (ii) might co-exist. We view (i)-(iii) as important steps towards the practical application of front-door criteria and mediation analysis as mediators are almost always measured with error and thus, the most one can hope for in practice is that the measurements are at best proxies of mediating mechanisms. We propose identification approaches for the parameters of interest in our considered models. For the estimation aspect, we propose an influence function-based estimation method and provide an analysis for the robustness of the estimators.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"249 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141718261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
More Power by Using Fewer Permutations 用更少的排列组合获得更大的能量
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae031
Nick W Koning
{"title":"More Power by Using Fewer Permutations","authors":"Nick W Koning","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae031","url":null,"abstract":"Summary It is conventionally believed that permutation-based testing methods should ideally use all permutations. We challenge this by showing we can sometimes obtain dramatically more power by using a tiny subgroup. As the subgroup is tiny, this also comes at a much lower computational cost. Moreover, the method remains valid for the same hypotheses. We exploit this to improve the popular permutation-based Westfall & Young MaxT multiple testing method. We analyze the relative efficiency in a Gaussian location model, and find the largest gain in high dimensions.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"377 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141585906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing Independence for Sparse Longitudinal Data 测试稀疏纵向数据的独立性
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae035
Changbo Zhu, Junwen Yao, Jane-Ling Wang
{"title":"Testing Independence for Sparse Longitudinal Data","authors":"Changbo Zhu, Junwen Yao, Jane-Ling Wang","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae035","url":null,"abstract":"Summary With the advance of science and technology, more and more data are collected in the form of functions. A fundamental question for a pair of random functions is to test whether they are independent. This problem becomes quite challenging when the random trajectories are sampled irregularly and sparsely for each subject. In other words, each random function is only sampled at a few time-points, and these time-points vary with subjects. Furthermore, the observed data may contain noise. To the best of our knowledge, there exists no consistent test in the literature to test the independence of sparsely observed functional data. We show in this work that testing pointwise independence simultaneously is feasible. The test statistics are constructed by integrating pointwise distance covariances (Székely et al., 2007) and are shown to converge, at a certain rate, to their corresponding population counterparts, which characterize the simultaneous pointwise independence of two random functions. The performance of the proposed methods is further verified by Monte Carlo simulations and analysis of real data.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Semiparametric efficiency gains from parametric restrictions on propensity scores 倾向分数参数限制带来的半参数效率收益
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae034
Haruki Kono
{"title":"Semiparametric efficiency gains from parametric restrictions on propensity scores","authors":"Haruki Kono","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae034","url":null,"abstract":"Summary We explore how much knowing a parametric restriction on propensity scores improves semiparametric efficiency bounds in the potential outcome framework. For stratified propensity scores, considered as a parametric model, we derive explicit formulas for the efficiency gain from knowing how the covariate space is split. Based on these, we find that the efficiency gain decreases as the partition of the stratification becomes finer. For general parametric models, where it is hard to obtain explicit representations of efficiency bounds, we propose a novel framework that enables us to see whether knowing a parametric model is valuable in terms of efficiency even when it is high-dimensional. In addition to the intuitive fact that knowing the parametric model does not help much if it is sufficiently flexible, we discover that the efficiency gain can be nearly zero even though the parametric assumption significantly restricts the space of possible propensity scores.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141566705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Debiasing Welch’s Method for Spectral Density Estimation 用于频谱密度估计的去偏差韦尔奇方法
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae033
Lachlan C Astfalck, Adam M Sykulski, Edward J Cripps
{"title":"Debiasing Welch’s Method for Spectral Density Estimation","authors":"Lachlan C Astfalck, Adam M Sykulski, Edward J Cripps","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae033","url":null,"abstract":"Summary Welch’s method provides an estimator of the power spectral density that is statistically consistent. This is achieved by averaging over periodograms calculated from overlapping segments of a time series. For a finite length time series, while the variance of the estimator decreases as the number of segments increase, the magnitude of the estimator’s bias increases: a bias-variance trade-off ensues when setting the segment number. We address this issue by providing a novel method for debiasing Welch’s method which maintains the computational complexity and asymptotic consistency, and leads to improved finite-sample performance. Theoretical results are given for fourth-order stationary processes with finite fourth-order moments and absolutely convergent fourth-order cumulant function. The significant bias reduction is demonstrated with numerical simulation and an application to real-world data. Our estimator also permits irregular spacing over frequency and we demonstrate how this may be employed for signal compression and further variance reduction. Code accompanying this work is available in R and python.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing serial dependence or cross dependence for time series with underreporting 测试有漏报的时间序列的序列依赖性或交叉依赖性
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae027
Keyao Wei, Lengyang Wang, Yingcun Xia
{"title":"Testing serial dependence or cross dependence for time series with underreporting","authors":"Keyao Wei, Lengyang Wang, Yingcun Xia","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae027","url":null,"abstract":"In practice, it is common for collected data to be underreported, which is particularly prevalent in fields such as social sciences, ecology and epidemiology. Drawing inferences from such data using conventional statistical methods can lead to incorrect conclusions. In this paper, we study tests for serial or cross dependence in time series data that are subject to underreporting. We introduce new test statistics, develop corresponding group-of-blocks bootstrap techniques, and establish their consistency. The methods are shown to be efficient by simulation and are used to identify key factors responsible for the spread of dengue fever and the occurrence of cardiovascular disease.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"197 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Rank-Based Sequential Test of Independence 基于等级的独立性序列检验
IF 2.7 2区 数学
Biometrika Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1093/biomet/asae023
Alexander Henzi, Michael Law
{"title":"A Rank-Based Sequential Test of Independence","authors":"Alexander Henzi, Michael Law","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae023","url":null,"abstract":"Summary We consider the problem of independence testing for two univariate random variables in a sequential setting. By leveraging recent developments on safe, anytime-valid inference, we propose a test with time-uniform type I error control and derive explicit bounds on the finite sample performance of the test. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the procedure in comparison to existing sequential and non-sequential independence tests. Furthermore, since the proposed test is distribution free under the null hypothesis, we empirically simulate the gap due to Ville’s inequality–the supermartingale analogue of Markov’s inequality–that is commonly applied to control type I error in anytime-valid inference, and apply this to construct a truncated sequential test.","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141060585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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