Causal inference with hidden mediators

Abstract

Summary Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference approach to settings where identification of causal effects hinges upon a set of mediators which are not observed, yet error prone proxies of the hidden mediators are measured. Specifically, (i) we establish causal hidden mediation analysis, which extends classical causal mediation analysis methods for identifying natural direct and indirect effects under no unmeasured confounding to a setting where the mediator of interest is hidden, but proxies of it are available. (ii) We establish a hidden front-door criterion, which extends the classical front-door criterion to allow for hidden mediators for which proxies are available. (iii) We show that the identification of a certain causal effect called population intervention indirect effect remains possible with hidden mediators in settings where challenges in (i) and (ii) might co-exist. We view (i)-(iii) as important steps towards the practical application of front-door criteria and mediation analysis as mediators are almost always measured with error and thus, the most one can hope for in practice is that the measurements are at best proxies of mediating mechanisms. We propose identification approaches for the parameters of interest in our considered models. For the estimation aspect, we propose an influence function-based estimation method and provide an analysis for the robustness of the estimators.