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Trials and Tribulations of Teaching Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in the Health Sciences 健康科学教学中零假设显著性检验的尝试与磨难
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159
P. Sedgwick
{"title":"Trials and Tribulations of Teaching Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in the Health Sciences","authors":"P. Sedgwick","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159","url":null,"abstract":"Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has become the cornerstone of decision-making in clinical and healthcare research. Statistical significance (p < 0.05) is considered the gold standard for inferring that contextual significance exists. However, such practice is controversial since it was never intended for contextual significance to be inferred based on statistical significance. There have been frequent calls for the abandonment of NHST incorporating the bright-line rule of p < 0.05. The call for a statistics reform represents challenges for the teaching of statistics in the Health Sciences. NHST and p-values are central to traditional undergraduate and postgraduate curricula. It is suggested that whatever the future for NHST, it still needs to be taught. It is important that students appreciate the challenges that inferences based on NHST pose. To avoid such challenges in the future, a greater understanding of the underlying statistical principles is needed. Curricula are typically lacking in these principles, whilst they are difficult concepts based on probability and uncertainty. This may have contributed to the controversial practice of inferring contextual significance from statistical significance. A framework for the teaching of NHST and p-values is presented.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"12 1","pages":"33 - 41"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86932732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tips for Getting a Federal Statistics Job 找到一份联邦统计工作的建议
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152
E. Molfino
{"title":"Tips for Getting a Federal Statistics Job","authors":"E. Molfino","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152","url":null,"abstract":"Are you a recent graduate looking for your first job in the federal government? Are you still in school and interested in ways to improve your chances of getting a job after graduation? Are you looking to transition from academia or industry to the civil service? No matter what stage in your career you are in, getting a statistics job in the federal government can seem daunting. The executive board of ASA’s Government Statistics Section (GSS) has put together these tips to help you. These tips are not meant to be exhaustive, nor will they guarantee a job. But by following these tips, hopefully your job search and application process will be easier.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"30 1","pages":"19 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83537444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Past, Problems, and Potential of Readability Analysis 可读性分析的过去、问题和潜力
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411
Nicholas A. Lines
{"title":"The Past, Problems, and Potential of Readability Analysis","authors":"Nicholas A. Lines","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411","url":null,"abstract":"Readability analysis combines statistical modeling, theoretical linguistics, and psychological theory to determine the accessibility level of writing samples. This study has a long history and broad impact, yet typically uses extremely simple statistical tools (in particular linear regressions). This article briefly reviews key stages in the history of readability, and discusses present issues and potential future benefits these tools offer.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"137 1","pages":"16 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77224618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
In Memoriam: Leland Wilkinson (1944–2021) 纪念:利兰·威尔金森(1944-2021)
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422
P. Velleman, H. Wainer
{"title":"In Memoriam: Leland Wilkinson (1944–2021)","authors":"P. Velleman, H. Wainer","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"92 1","pages":"48 - 49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88987666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Learning Base R (2nd edition) 学习基础R(第二版)
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419
C. Robert
{"title":"Learning Base R (2nd edition)","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"11 1","pages":"46 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79646129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Benford’s Law and County-Level Votes in US Presidential Elections 本福德定律与美国总统选举中的县级投票
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408
Brooks Groharing, D. McCune
{"title":"Benford’s Law and County-Level Votes in US Presidential Elections","authors":"Brooks Groharing, D. McCune","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential election, the argument was raised that because Joseph Biden's county vote totals in Pennsylvania do not follow Benford's law but Donald Trump's do, Democratic voter fraud occurred in Pennsylvania. We use US recent presidential election data to investigate whether this argument holds water. We use statistical tools such as chi squared goodness-of-fit tests and hypothesis tests for proportions, which are commonly used in Benford settings.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"17 1","pages":"4 - 10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75329906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
What Are the Chances? (Why We Believe in Luck) 机会有多大?(为什么我们相信运气)
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418
C. Robert
{"title":"What Are the Chances? (Why We Believe in Luck)","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"18 1","pages":"45 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81257403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Editor’s Letter 编辑的信
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407
Amanda Peterson-Plunkett
{"title":"Editor’s Letter","authors":"Amanda Peterson-Plunkett","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"55 1","pages":"3 - 4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88274108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Should Scientific Journals Handle ‘Big If True’ Submissions? 科学期刊应该如何处理“大若真”的投稿?
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415
A. Gelman
{"title":"How Should Scientific Journals Handle ‘Big If True’ Submissions?","authors":"A. Gelman","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415","url":null,"abstract":"How can scientific journals satisfy an admirable desire for open-mindedness and aversion to censorship while minimizing the publication of junk science? We consider this question in the context of the Bem (2011) paper reporting extra-sensory perception among Cornell students, which received a lot of attention in part because the editors made the decision to publish the article despite extreme skepticism of its claims. We consider the reasons, good and bad, for journals to publish such papers, and then we propose an alternative way in which the journal could publish without seeming to endorse outlandish claims. Our proposal is to flip the standard scheme of scientific publication by privileging data rather than strong conclusions presented with an air of certainty. This proposal could work for the publication of \"big if true\" claims more generally.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"197 1","pages":"41 - 43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79933568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Abundance: Methods for the Estimation of Population Size and Species Richness 测量丰度:估计种群大小和物种丰富度的方法
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417
C. Robert
{"title":"Measuring Abundance: Methods for the Estimation of Population Size and Species Richness","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"35 1","pages":"44 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76755101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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