Chance (New York, N.Y.)最新文献

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Editor's Letter 编辑的信
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915043
Amanda Peterson-Plunkett
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引用次数: 0
Benford's Law and COVID-19 Data 本福德定律和COVID-19数据
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915031
Chase Marchand, Dalton Maahs
{"title":"Benford's Law and COVID-19 Data","authors":"Chase Marchand, Dalton Maahs","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915031","url":null,"abstract":"Marchand and Maahs discuss Benford's Law and COVID-19 data Benford's law was first discovered by Simon Newcomb in his 1881 work in the American Journal of Mathematics When Newcomb used logarithm tables, he noticed how much faster the first pages in the bound tables were wearing out than the last pages Newcomb quantified his observation with a logarithmic law that gives the probability of occurrence for the first significant digit--now known as Benford's law Data sets for COVID-19 tend to be a very good fit for Benford's law They include several categories of daily data from both the US and the world These findings also open up the possibility of Benford's law being used in the future to assess the accuracy of reported sets of COVID-19 data","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"43 1","pages":"31 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90541522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Looking at Reported Hate Crimes 看看报道的仇恨犯罪
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915040
H. Wainer, R. Feinberg
{"title":"Looking at Reported Hate Crimes","authors":"H. Wainer, R. Feinberg","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915040","url":null,"abstract":"This investigation was instigated by the horrific events of October 27, 2018, when Joyce Fienberg, an old and dear friend, was one of 11 congregants murdered in Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 2018); Joyce was the widow of famed statistician (and founding editor of CHANCE) Stephen E. Fienberg. As time passed, we grew numb, but the spirit of Tikkun Olam kindled the desire to try to do something. But what? We are statisticians (and Jews), so our path to understanding and thus perhaps diminishing the likelihood of the recurrence of such terrible events begins with looking at data. is account is the start of our empirical search for understanding. e path to understanding is paved with questions whose answers provide illumination. Although many of these questions are causal, we must begin with some obvious questions whose answers are descriptive. ree categories of questions that require descriptive answers are:","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"27 1","pages":"65 - 72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90218081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling the Economic and Societal Impact of Non‐Pharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID‐19 Pandemic COVID - 19大流行期间非药物干预措施的经济和社会影响建模
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915028
J. T., N. B., T. Middleton
{"title":"Modeling the Economic and Societal Impact of Non‐Pharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID‐19 Pandemic","authors":"J. T., N. B., T. Middleton","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915028","url":null,"abstract":"Nicholas and Middleton discuss the economic and societal impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) during the COVID-19 pandemic Like many countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK has deployed a series of national and local NPIs in an effort to control the spread of the virus While others have analyzed the epidemiological impact, on cases and hospitalizations, for example, the broader economic and societal impact can be considered by asking whether, in simple terms, light can be shed on the cost of these measures","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"42 1","pages":"4 - 17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73714755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Data Science Instructional Escape Room-a Successful Experiment 数据科学教学密室——一个成功的实验
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915034
V. Nelson, Jason Crea
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引用次数: 1
Toward Reducing the Possibility of False-Positive Results in Epidemiologic Studies of Traffic Crashes 减少交通事故流行病学研究中假阳性结果的可能性
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915033
Adam Palayew, S. Harper, J. Hanley
{"title":"Toward Reducing the Possibility of False-Positive Results in Epidemiologic Studies of Traffic Crashes","authors":"Adam Palayew, S. Harper, J. Hanley","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915033","url":null,"abstract":"44 Large databases, such as the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), are often used to study factors that influence traffic crashes that result in injuries or deaths, and how they may be affected by human activities or environmental conditions. This genre of epidemiologic research presents considerable study design challenges, since crash rates vary by season, day of the week, and time of day. To minimize the effects of these extraneous factors, many studies use a double control matched design as laid out by Redelmeier and Tibshirani in the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology in 2017. This design identified the particular days (or portions of a day) in which the condition/factor of concern was present. The concern might relate to a national election or holiday, or Super Bowl Sunday, or the change to/from daylight savings time (DST). For each such day of concern, and for each year for which data are available, two comparison days—seven days before and seven days after—are identified. The notation for the counts of interest on these three days is shown in Figure 1. The statistical methods used to convert the summed counts (C, B, A) in Figure 1 into inferential Toward Reducing the Possibility of FalsePositive Results in Epidemiologic Studies of Traffic Crashes","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"6 1","pages":"44 - 52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90804544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Shape of Things: Topological Data Analysis 事物的形状:拓扑数据分析
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915036
N. Lazar, Hyunnam Ryu
{"title":"The Shape of Things: Topological Data Analysis","authors":"N. Lazar, Hyunnam Ryu","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915036","url":null,"abstract":"An interesting feature of much modern Big Data is that the data we collect, or the data we want to analyze, are not necessarily in the traditional matrix or array form familiar from our textbooks. They may be coerced to such a format for relative ease of analysis, but this is not a strong justification. Past columns have explored new methods that exploit the natural structure of such data sets more directly. Topological data analysis (TDA) is one such method. Much daunting mathematics lies behind the methods of TDA, but it is possible to gain an idea and understanding of the approach and its potential usefulness even without a deep dive into the intricacies of topology, homology classes, and the like. In fact, the basic idea is quite simple: to study data through their low-dimension topological features, which translate into connected components (dimension 0), loops (dimension 1), and voids (dimension 2). Higher dimensions do exist, but often do not contain much useful information. For threedimensional data, up to the second dimension topological features can be considered at most. A good analogy to make the meaning of these features concrete is a piece of Swiss cheese. The piece of cheese itself is one connected component. The holes that are apparent on the The Shape of Things: Topological Data Analysis","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"3 1","pages":"59 - 64"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74956747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Secret Career of Solomon Kullback 所罗门·库巴克的秘密事业
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915029
Brenda McIntire
{"title":"The Secret Career of Solomon Kullback","authors":"Brenda McIntire","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915029","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"153 1","pages":"18 - 23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75055419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Police Officers Killed in the Line of Duty: A Correspondence Analysis of Circumstances and Time of Day 警察因公殉职:情况与时间的对应分析
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1915030
T. Allen
{"title":"Police Officers Killed in the Line of Duty: A Correspondence Analysis of Circumstances and Time of Day","authors":"T. Allen","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1915030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1915030","url":null,"abstract":"24 Police officers are the mostvisible representatives of the U.S. legal system. They are close to the community and mostresponsible for direct intervention in cases of criminal activity. An attack against a police officer is an attack against the legal system, but the very nature of their responsibilities puts them in danger of attack. In 2019, 48 police officers were feloniously killed (FBI 2019 Police Officers Killed in the Line of Duty: A Correspondence Analysis of Circumstances and Time of Day","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"6 1","pages":"24 - 30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76430434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Principles of Uncertainty (Second Edition) 不确定性原理(第二版)
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2021.1885939
C. Robert
{"title":"Principles of Uncertainty (Second Edition)","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2021.1885939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2021.1885939","url":null,"abstract":"A new edition of Principles of Uncertainty, the first edition of which I reviewed in JASA (2012), has appeared. I was asked by CRC Press to review the new book; here are some (almost raw) extracts from my report, removing the parts that were addressed by the author before the book went to print. Overall, my enthusiasm for the book, its original (and of course, subjective) defense of the Bayesian approach, and its highly enjoyable style, remains intact, especially when backed by the proof-in-the pudding 2017 Pragmatics of Uncertainty, which I reviewed in a 2019 issue of CHANCE (32(1)). In Chapter 6, the proof of the Central Limit Theorem uses the “smudge” technique, which is to add an independent noise to both the sequence of rvs and its limit. This is most effective and reminds me of quite a similar proof Jacques Neveu used in probability notes at the École Polytechnique, which went under the more-formal denomination of convolution, with the same (commendable) purpose of avoiding Fourier transforms. If anything, I would have favored a slightly more-condensed presentation in fewer than eight pages. In Chapter 7, I found a nice mention of (Hermann) Rubin’s insistence on not separating probability and utility because only the product matters. And another fascinating quote from Keynes, not from his early statistician years, but in 1937 as an established economist:","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"31 1","pages":"54 - 55"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84103918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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