本福德定律与美国总统选举中的县级投票

Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI:10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408

Brooks Groharing, D. McCune

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在2020年美国总统大选之后，有人提出，由于约瑟夫·拜登在宾夕法尼亚州的县选票总数不遵循本福德法，而唐纳德·特朗普遵循本福德法，因此民主党在宾夕法尼亚州发生了选民欺诈。我们使用美国最近的总统选举数据来调查这种观点是否站得住脚。我们使用统计工具，如卡方拟合优度检验和比例假设检验，这是在本福德设置中常用的。

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Benford’s Law and County-Level Votes in US Presidential Elections

In the aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential election, the argument was raised that because Joseph Biden's county vote totals in Pennsylvania do not follow Benford's law but Donald Trump's do, Democratic voter fraud occurred in Pennsylvania. We use US recent presidential election data to investigate whether this argument holds water. We use statistical tools such as chi squared goodness-of-fit tests and hypothesis tests for proportions, which are commonly used in Benford settings.

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Chance (New York, N.Y.)

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