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Monty Hall and “the Leibniz Illusion” 蒙蒂·霍尔和“莱布尼茨幻觉”
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2145124
Steven Tijms
{"title":"Monty Hall and “the Leibniz Illusion”","authors":"Steven Tijms","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2145124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2145124","url":null,"abstract":"Hardly any mathematical problem has been debated so fiercely and widely as the Monty Hall problem.The question of why so many people were mistaken, and moreover, why they were so deeply convinced that they were right and Marilyn vos Savant was wrong, still awaits a proper answer. Steven Pinker and other cognitive psychologists before him blame the equiprobability bias. I will show that the equiprobability bias is in fact a sound stochastic intuition. But through our labeling the three doors, a “probability shift” occurs. Instead of looking for the probability that we picked the door with the car behind it, we are now looking for the probability that the car is behind the door we picked. As a result, Marilyn’s critics suffer from a stochastic illusion that I have called “the Leibniz Illusion”. This illusion makes us believe that, after the host opens one of the three doors, there remain only two alternative possibilities. The uniformity belief now says that chances are fifty-fifty that the car is behind the door we picked. In reality, there still remain three alternative possibilities for the door we picked. This seems paradoxical, since only two doors are left. Once we compare our picking one of the three doors to drawing a playing card from a deck and realize that just like the playing cards each of the three doors has its own hidden label, the paradox is resolved and it becomes clear how Marilyn’s critics were deluded","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"78 1","pages":"4 - 14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77010180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Amy’s Luck 艾米的运气
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2145142
C. Robert
{"title":"Amy’s Luck","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2145142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2145142","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Bayes Rules! by Alicia Johnson, Miles Ott, and Mine Dogucu, and Amy’s Luck by David Hand.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"48 22 1","pages":"51 - 51"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81986523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are the Handicaps Fair? Age and Participation Effects in the Dipsea Race 残障比赛公平吗?Dipsea种族的年龄与参与效应
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2145138
Richard De Veaux, A. Plantinga, E. Upton
{"title":"Are the Handicaps Fair? Age and Participation Effects in the Dipsea Race","authors":"Richard De Veaux, A. Plantinga, E. Upton","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2145138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2145138","url":null,"abstract":"The Dipsea Race is a longstanding annual trail race that takes place in Marin County, California. A unique feature of the Dipsea is that runners are given head starts based on their age and sex, computed in an attempt to give runners of every age and sex a similar chance of winning the race. However, runners in the “scratch group” (19- to 30-year-old men, who receive no head start) have not won in the past 50 years, and nobody between the ages of 9 and 45 has won for the past two decades. In this article, we investigate whether the head starts are too large, giving younger and older runners an advantage, or whether the gap in the age distribution of winners is due to participation differences. We find that if anything, the head starts are smaller than they would need to be for the median or mean time to be similar across age and sex groups; rather, exceptional young and old runners participate at a higher rate than exceptional runners in the scratch group.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"57 1","pages":"40 - 49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84889911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Interview with Hal Stern—From Academics to Administration 采访哈尔·斯特恩——从学术到管理
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2145129
S. Behseta
{"title":"An Interview with Hal Stern—From Academics to Administration","authors":"S. Behseta","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2145129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2145129","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"32 1","pages":"18 - 26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74816300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Conversation with Howard Hogan, Former Chief Demographer at the United States Census Bureau 与美国人口普查局前首席人口统计学家霍华德·霍根的对话
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123150
J. Eltinge, W. Martínez
{"title":"A Conversation with Howard Hogan, Former Chief Demographer at the United States Census Bureau","authors":"J. Eltinge, W. Martínez","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123150","url":null,"abstract":"John Eltinge and Wendy Martinez had the pleasure of interviewing Howard Hogan, the former Chief Demographer of the United States Census Bureau in September 2019. Howard had a long and distinguished career at the Census Bureau, where he started working in 1979. Howard obtained his Ph.D. in Economics and Demography at Princeton University, and he later earned a Master’s Degree in Public Affairs from The Woodrow Wilson School. As Chief Demographer, Howard served as a senior scientist and principal consultant on methodological problems, as well as on technical and statistical demography. Throughout his career, he contributed to several professional organizations including the American Statistical Association (ASA), the Washington Statistical Society, and the International Association of Survey Statisticians. He was awarded Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2001 and received the Jeanne E. Griffith Mentoring Award in 2018.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"16 1","pages":"9 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74133415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analyzing Basketball Data with BasketballAnalyzeR 用BasketballAnalyzeR分析篮球数据
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123161
A. Fox, Marica Manisera, Marco Sandri, P. Zuccolotto
{"title":"Analyzing Basketball Data with BasketballAnalyzeR","authors":"A. Fox, Marica Manisera, Marco Sandri, P. Zuccolotto","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123161","url":null,"abstract":"The R package BasketballAnalyzeR, described in the book “Basketball Data Science”, is designed to be a flexible tool for a great variety of aims. It is simple enough to eliminate barriers-to-entry for aspiring data scientists and sports analysts, but is also allows to perform more complex analyses for scientific research. It is appropriate for teaching, in both degree courses in Statistics and specific Masters and post-graduate courses in sports. In this article we show some of the statistical graphical tools made available by BasketballAnalyzeR: bubble plots, to assess relationships among several game variables; shot charts and heatmaps of the shots’ spatial density, to extract information about spatial performance; shot density charts, to analyze shot frequency with respect to some concurrent game variables; assist/shot networks, to highlight the relationships between teammates; nonparametric estimation of scoring probability and expected points with respect to some concurrent game variables, to investigate which are each player’s most efficient shots.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"269 ","pages":"42 - 56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72555263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
R Govys: A New Community that Wants You R Govys:一个需要你的新社区
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123151
D. LaLonde
{"title":"R Govys: A New Community that Wants You","authors":"D. LaLonde","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123151","url":null,"abstract":"In 2022 the American Statistical Association became a member of the R Consortium. Members of the consortium have a shared commitment to ongoing development and maintenance of R and supporting the user community. As a result of the ASA participation in the R Consortium a R Govys, a new users-group was formed. The goal of R Govys is to build community, share knowledge, and grow influence for users and producers of federal statistics.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"8 1","pages":"17 - 18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72659770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An In-depth Conversation with Dionne Price, 2023 President of the American Statistical Association 与美国统计协会2023年主席迪翁·普莱斯的深度对话
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123153
Simone Gray
{"title":"An In-depth Conversation with Dionne Price, 2023 President of the American Statistical Association","authors":"Simone Gray","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123153","url":null,"abstract":"Simone Gray interviews the 2023 President of the American Statistical Association, Dionne Price, for a special issue of CHANCE magazine on Statistics in the Government.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"116 1","pages":"23 - 26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80766216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spotlight on the Government Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association 聚焦于美国统计协会的政府统计部分
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123147
Michael Messner, Claire McKay Bowen
{"title":"Spotlight on the Government Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association","authors":"Michael Messner, Claire McKay Bowen","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123147","url":null,"abstract":"The Government Statistics Section (GSS) of the American Statistical Association (ASA) actively supports its members in several key areas, providing opportunities for members to engage in conversations on methodological techniques relevant to government statistics and products. GSS leads and co-sponsors several activities, such as a mentoring program, an ongoing annual data challenge, and other networking and educational activities, both in person and virtually. In this article, GSS Board Members share a brief history of GSS and its mission discuss some of GSS’s current and past activities, highlight some of the benefits of joining this section, and spotlight on a few of our current members.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"24 1","pages":"4 - 8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84035505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Transforming Medical Cucumbers into Sunbeams 把医用黄瓜变成阳光
Chance (New York, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123156
H. Wainer
{"title":"Transforming Medical Cucumbers into Sunbeams","authors":"H. Wainer","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123156","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123156","url":null,"abstract":"A recent report from Johns Hopkins University estimated that more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die annually from medical errors. There are surely many contributing causes for this horrendous statistic, but one of them, we conjecture, is faulty communication between medical caregivers when a patient is passed between them. In this essay we suggest that replacing the often complex tables of patient information into a more comprehensible graphic format can reduce errors of information and make clerical errors easier to pick out. We illustrate this with both a contemporary data set and a famous historical one drawn from the 18th century.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"5 1","pages":"27 - 32"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79126133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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