Field staff reports最新文献

{"title":"Could Capital Gains Smooth a Current Account Rebalancing","authors":"Michele Cavallo, C. Tille","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.886521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.886521","url":null,"abstract":"A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar, as stressed in research by Obstfeld and Rogoff. We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of financial integration in the world economy. A growing body of research emphasizes the increasing leverage in international financial positions, with industrialized economies holding substantial and growing financial claims on each other. Exchange rate movements then lead to valuation effects as the currency composition of a country's assets and liabilities are not matched. In particular, a dollar depreciation generates valuation gains for the United States by boosting the dollar value of much of its foreign-currency-denominated assets. We consider an adjustment scenario in which the U.S. net external debt is held constant. The key finding is that as the current account moves into balance, the pace of adjustment is smooth. Intuitively, the valuation gains from the depreciation of the dollar allow the United States to finance ongoing, albeit shrinking, current account deficits. We find that the smooth pattern of adjustment is robust to alternative scenarios, although the ultimate movements in exchange rates will vary under different conditions.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"112 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75293853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arbitrage pricing theory","authors":"Gur Huberman","doi":"10.1007/978-1-349-20213-3_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20213-3_5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"13 1","pages":"72-80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83101785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coastal Alabama recreational live bait study.","authors":"R. Wallace, T. Hanson, L. U. Hatch","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.15807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.15807","url":null,"abstract":"Recreational fishing is major industry and reasonably priced, high quality bait plays an important role in sustaining recreational fishing's popularity. This study provides a summary of Alabama's coastal live bait market including information on previous live bait studies and results of two surveys on the live bait shrimp, bull minnow and other bait markets. Results indicated there were periods of supply shortages, dealer willingness to pay more for shrimp that live longer and a dealers' use of multiple supply sources. Lost income was reported from not having live bait shrimp available for sale at peak demand periods. The economics of shrimp mariculture needs to be examined to determine its feasibility in augmenting the current supply of shrimp to the live bait industry.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82571473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sunk costs, contestability, and the latent contract market","authors":"C. Stefanadis","doi":"10.1111/J.1430-9134.2003.00119.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1430-9134.2003.00119.X","url":null,"abstract":"The idea that an industry with sunk costs may be contestable even in the absence of long-term contracts has received little attention from formal economic theory yet is popular among monopolists facing antitrust suits. The paper formally illustrates the argument. In an infinitely repeated game, there exists a class of contestable outcomes in which the monopolist sells only on the spot market and charges low prices along the equilibrium path to prevent customers from resorting to long-term contracts. Then, the crucial test for contestability is the level of transaction costs in the latent contract market.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82418741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variance Estimation With USDA's Farm Costs and Returns Surveys and Agricultural Resource Management Study Surveys.","authors":"R. Dubman","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.276685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.276685","url":null,"abstract":"USDA's annual Farm Costs and Returns Surveys and Agricultural Resource Management Study surveys apply complex stratified, multiple-frame, probability-weighted, and sometimes multiple-phase sampling methods to provide financial measures of the agricultural sector. This paper is an overview of survey estimators, sample design, hypothesis testing, disclosure rules, and reliability measures for the two surveys followed by statistical program documentation. Sums, ratios, means, multiple regression, binomial logit analysis, and order statistics are covered.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89515024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook","authors":"B. Babcock, J. Beghin, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, S. Cara, A. Elobeid, Cheng Fang, F. Fuller, C. Hart, Murat Işık, H. Matthey, A. Saak, K. Kovarik, A. Womack, R. E. Young, P. Westhoff, Joseph Trujillo, D. S. Brown, G. Adams, B. Willott, D. Madison, S. Meyer, J. Kruse, J. Binfield","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.32045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.32045","url":null,"abstract":"The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely eastward enlargement of the European Union (EU). The baseline predicts recovery of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade, but with remaining price weakness for crops. Stock-to-use ratios in world crop markets remain high despite the strong recovery of Asian and Latin American economies. Above-average yields kept world production high relative to demand in 1999. In contrast, pork and beef prices are increasing significantly above their 1999 level. The physical volume of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reverse the downward trend of fiscal year (FY) 1999, whereas the value of agricultural exports continue to decline for one more year before recovering because of low crop prices in 2000/01. World crop trade is projected to increase by 55 million metric tons (mmt) in the coming decade, with the United States capturing 49 percent of the expanded market, but still unable to increase its market share by a large percentage. Following this expansion of the market, grain prices increase by 35 percent in the projection period, but still stay well below the peak of 1995/96. The increase in world crop trade reflects the increasing specialization occurring in world agriculture. Increased market access and land scarcity in many Asian economies induce them to import grains and oilseeds to meet their feed demand. Developing Asia remains the fastest growing market for corn in the next decade. With implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms, the EU will reduce its wheat domestic price relative to the world price and will export wheat without subsidies after 2004, constraining gains in market shares for the United States. EU barley exports will expand significantly in the coming years but are likely to be constrained by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments on export subsidies after 2004. World meat trade will increase by 31 percent over the next decade. The United States has become a competitive producer and exporter of meat products. In the coming decade, the United States will experience the largest meat export growth rates among major exporters of beef, pork, and broilers. U.S. exporters capture more than 70 percent of the growth in trade, increasing their share of the combined meat ma","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91132454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior","authors":"Kenneth N. Kuttner, A. Posen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.183500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.183500","url":null,"abstract":"Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85663229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Technical Barriers to Trade: Highlights of ERS Workshop, October 8-9, 1997","authors":"W. Liefert","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.278830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.278830","url":null,"abstract":"Technical barriers to trade are becoming an increasingly important (and controversial) area of agricultural trade policy. This paper reports on a workshop held at ERS on technical barriers. The workshop examined analysis and research done on the topic in 1997, and identified areas for future research. Issues examined include identification and classification of technical barriers to trade; the reasons they exist; their effect on agricultural production, consumption, trade, and economic welfare; and policy response to such barriers.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83710208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overview of Foreign Technical Barriers to U.S. Agricultural Exports","authors":"D. Roberts, K. DeRemer","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.278821","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.278821","url":null,"abstract":"Technical barriers affecting agricultural trade are emerging at the center of agricultural trade policy debates with increased frequency. These bathers include sanitary and phytosanitary measures; measures to prevent commercial fraud, such as standards of identity and standards of measure; consumer measures, which regulate food quality attributes; trade measures aimed at protecting the global commons; and others. Although many international trade experts in the public and the private sectors concur that technical barriers are a significant impediment to agricultural trade, evidence in support of this view has primarily been anecdotal. This report aims to provide the first general overview of technical barriers that currently confront U.S: agricultural exports. It presents summary descriptive statistics of foreign technical barriers developed from a survey of USDA's foreign attaches and representatives from agricultural producer groups who identified more than 300 measures in 63 foreign markets, and estimated that these technical barriers threatened, constrained, or blocked $4.97 billion of U.S. exports in 1996.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76829783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"U.S. COMMUTING ZONES AND LABOR MARKET AREAS: A 1990 UPDATE","authors":"C. Tolbert, Molly Sizer","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.278812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.278812","url":null,"abstract":"This document provides an overview of a research project that identified U.S. commuting zones and labor market areas with journey-to-work data from the 1990 Census. This research replicated a previous delineation of U.S. 1980 commuting zones and labor market areas. County to county flows of commuters were analyzed with a hierarchical cluster algorithm. The results of the cluster analysis were used to identify commuting zones (i.e., group's of counties with strong commuting ties). For 1990, 741 commuting zones were delineated for all U.S. counties and county equivalents. These commuting zones are intended for use as spatial measures of local labor markets when researchers are not concerned with minimum population thresholds. Where necessary, the commuting zones were then aggregated into 394 labor market areas that met the Bureau of the Census' criterion— of a 100,000 population minimum. This was done to acquire a special 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS-L) that identifies labor market areas in which individuals live and work. The commuting zones and labor market areas were also classified according to the population of the largest place within them.","PeriodicalId":84751,"journal":{"name":"Field staff reports","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81507753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}