FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely eastward enlargement of the European Union (EU). The baseline predicts recovery of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade, but with remaining price weakness for crops. Stock-to-use ratios in world crop markets remain high despite the strong recovery of Asian and Latin American economies. Above-average yields kept world production high relative to demand in 1999. In contrast, pork and beef prices are increasing significantly above their 1999 level. The physical volume of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reverse the downward trend of fiscal year (FY) 1999, whereas the value of agricultural exports continue to decline for one more year before recovering because of low crop prices in 2000/01. World crop trade is projected to increase by 55 million metric tons (mmt) in the coming decade, with the United States capturing 49 percent of the expanded market, but still unable to increase its market share by a large percentage. Following this expansion of the market, grain prices increase by 35 percent in the projection period, but still stay well below the peak of 1995/96. The increase in world crop trade reflects the increasing specialization occurring in world agriculture. Increased market access and land scarcity in many Asian economies induce them to import grains and oilseeds to meet their feed demand. Developing Asia remains the fastest growing market for corn in the next decade. With implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms, the EU will reduce its wheat domestic price relative to the world price and will export wheat without subsidies after 2004, constraining gains in market shares for the United States. EU barley exports will expand significantly in the coming years but are likely to be constrained by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments on export subsidies after 2004. World meat trade will increase by 31 percent over the next decade. The United States has become a competitive producer and exporter of meat products. In the coming decade, the United States will experience the largest meat export growth rates among major exporters of beef, pork, and broilers. U.S. exporters capture more than 70 percent of the growth in trade, increasing their share of the combined meat markets from 23 percent in 1999 to 37 percent in 2009. Meat imports are recovering and expanding rapidly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In Japan, the share of imports in consumption increases from 38 percent in the 1990s to 49 percent at the end of the next decade. Taiwan meat imports will triple from 1990-1999 levels to 2000-2009 levels, driven by imports of beef, non muscle pork products, and the opening of the poultry market. Recovery of Asian food demand will prompt dairy prices to grow by about 1 percent per year over the next decade. Total milk production is projected to increase, with particularly strong growth in the United States, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Most of the growth occurs through yield increases. Per capita cheese consumption is expected to grow by 1 to 2 percent a year in most countries.