Annals of Operations Research最新文献_第2页

Earnings forecasting and mean–variance efficient portfolios in the United States 美国的收益预测和均值方差有效投资组合

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06432-4

John B. Guerard Jr., Dimitrios Thomakos, Foteini Kyriazi, Ganlin Xu, Bijan Beheshti

{"title":"Earnings forecasting and mean–variance efficient portfolios in the United States","authors":"John B. Guerard Jr., Dimitrios Thomakos, Foteini Kyriazi, Ganlin Xu, Bijan Beheshti","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06432-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-024-06432-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Guerard and Takano (J Investing 1, 48–54, 1992), Guerard et al. (Ann Oper Res 45, 91–108, 1993) and Bloch et al. (Jpn World Econ 5: 3–26, 1993) reported mean–variance efficient portfolios for the Japanese and U.S. equity markets that were composed of a regression-weighted composite model of earnings, book value, cash flow, sales, and their relative variables outperformed their respective equity benchmarks by approximately 400 basis points annually. The optimized portfolios produced higher Sharpe Ratios than the benchmarks in Japan and the United States; the U.S. survivor-biased-free Sharpe Ratio was 1.20 whereas the benchmark was 0.96. Markowitz and Xu (J Portfolio Manag 21, 60–69. 1994) tested the composite model strategy and found that its excess returns were statistically significant from a variety of models tested, and the composite model strategy was not the result of data mining. We report updated US portfolio results for the 1995–2022 period that verifies the Guerard et al. (Ann Oper Res 45, 91–108, 1993) research and demonstrates that the Guerard and Markowitz post-publication, out-of-sample.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"393 - 414"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143638558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disrupting disruptions: enhancing supply chain resilience—lessons from the US Air Force 破坏性破坏：增强供应链弹性——来自美国空军的经验教训

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06527-6

Ron Berger, Ralf Wagner, Paul M. Dion, Olga Matthias

引用次数: 0

Ensemble learning algorithms based on easyensemble sampling for financial distress prediction 基于易相似抽样的集合学习算法用于金融困境预测

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06494-y

Wei Liu, Yoshihisa Suzuki, Shuyi Du

引用次数: 0

A non-parametric analysis of world productivity growth, 1990–2019 1990-2019年世界生产率增长的非参数分析

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06520-z

Paul W. Wilson, Shirong Zhao

引用次数: 0

Achieving win–win situation: strategy decisions on hotel CO2 emission reduction with customer involvement 实现双赢：在客户参与的情况下制定酒店二氧化碳减排战略决策

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06493-z

Yaqin Lin, Chun-Hung Chiu, Xingcheng Guo

{"title":"Achieving win–win situation: strategy decisions on hotel CO2 emission reduction with customer involvement","authors":"Yaqin Lin, Chun-Hung Chiu, Xingcheng Guo","doi":"10.1007/s10479-025-06493-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-025-06493-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a service industry, hotel carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) reduction requires customers’ participation. However, participation in carbon reduction usually involves several specific sacrifices (e.g., inconvenience, lesser quality, or less luxury). Customers may have negative experiences when hotels adopt green practices. Some hotels give up these practices to avoid profit loss risk owing to lower customer satisfaction, which diminishes the effectiveness of CO<sub>2</sub> reduction in the hospitality industry. This paper analytically investigates how to realize a win–win situation that simultaneously reduces CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and increases hotel profit with customer involvement in CO<sub>2</sub> reduction. It is found that seasonal demand, emission costs, CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction quantity, tourist willingness to involvement, and savings of room operations cost, affect win–win situation realization. This paper also examines the effectiveness of carbon trading, subsidy to low-carbon rooms, increasing public CO<sub>2</sub> reduction awareness, and different hotel low-carbon measure combinations for a win–win situation. Further, insights obtained in this study provide references for hotels on strategy decisions on carbon reduction and for policymakers guiding hotels to achieve low-carbon transformation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 3","pages":"2093 - 2139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Supply chain channel selection and discount strategy under influencer marketing 网红营销下的供应链渠道选择与折扣策略

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06523-w

Yu Xia, Jiaping Xie, Tingting Zhang

{"title":"Supply chain channel selection and discount strategy under influencer marketing","authors":"Yu Xia, Jiaping Xie, Tingting Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10479-025-06523-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-025-06523-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Influencer marketing is driving economic growth. Although influencer channels can expand product demand, they may also cause conflicts with the original direct sales channels. A price war under influencer marketing intensifies the contradiction between brand owners and influencers. Considering the entertainment and customer base effects of the influencer channel, this study develops a game-theoretical model between a brand owner and an influencer to discuss the brand owner's channel selection decision and the long-term impact of the discount in the influencer channel on the brand owner and influencer. Our results show that the streaming costs and product value determine the brand owner's optimal channel strategy. Brand owners should switch to influencer marketing when the streaming costs are low. Although a discount on the influencer channel can improve the influencer’s profit in the short term, the brand owner expects a discount on the influencer channel and adjusts the price of the product in the long run. Discounting the influencer channel may become a strategic tool for brand owners to handle conflicts of interest and reduce the influencer’s profit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"347 3","pages":"1567 - 1593"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143925558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Machine learning technologies on energy economics and finance in times of crisis 危机时期能源经济和金融的机器学习技术

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06455-x

M. Kabir Hassan, Mohammad Zoynul Abedin

引用次数: 0

Optimal carrier selection to improve logistics network reliability with delivery spoilage 优化承运商选择，提高物流网络可靠性（含配送损耗

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06521-y

Yi-Feng Niu, Meng-Meng Yuan, Xiu-Zhen Xu

{"title":"Optimal carrier selection to improve logistics network reliability with delivery spoilage","authors":"Yi-Feng Niu, Meng-Meng Yuan, Xiu-Zhen Xu","doi":"10.1007/s10479-025-06521-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-025-06521-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In a highly competitive market environment, outsourcing of logistics service is one of the most significant strategies for enterprises to enhance competitiveness. As a key component of logistics outsourcing, carrier selection directly affects logistics service quality. In general, there are multiple carriers to provide freight service along each route of a logistics network. Each carrier has stochastic capacity owing to that the carrier’s capacity may be partially occupied by other customers. Moreover, goods spoilage often occurs during transportation such that the amount of intact goods delivered may not fulfill the market demand. Thus, each carrier in this study is characterized by stochastic capacity that denotes freight capacity and delivery spoilage that denotes freight quality. Both freight capacity and freight quality are integrated into the carrier selection problem from the viewpoint of network reliability. An effective method that incorporates network reliability algorithm and genetic algorithm is developed to find the optimal carrier selection and the maximum network reliability. A practical logistics network is analyzed to showcase the utility of the algorithm in carrier selection, together with a sensitivity analysis to figure out the important carriers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 3","pages":"2195 - 2223"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating the impact of undersampling and bagging: an empirical investigation for customer attrition modeling 调查抽样不足和装袋的影响：客户流失模型的实证调查

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06516-9

Arno De Caigny, Kristof Coussement, Matthijs Meire, Steven Hoornaert

{"title":"Investigating the impact of undersampling and bagging: an empirical investigation for customer attrition modeling","authors":"Arno De Caigny, Kristof Coussement, Matthijs Meire, Steven Hoornaert","doi":"10.1007/s10479-025-06516-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10479-025-06516-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Given the growing interest in using AI and analytics to support CRM decision making, we discuss why undersampling and bagging are popular prediction techniques in customer churn prediction (CCP). The former helps in tackling the class imbalance problem and the latter improves model stability. However, extant CCP literature is unclear on the impact of undersampling on model stability and predictive performance, while bagging has difficulties in handling the class imbalance problem. Therefore, we extend existing CCP research to benchmark underbagging, which combines undersampling and bagging. Having both prediction techniques combined we recuperate customer data that would have been lost in undersampling by using them in multiple bags and passing an undersampled, more balanced training set to the classifier. In an extensive experiment including 11 real-life CCP datasets, underbagging is benchmarked against its constituents and other popular CCP classifiers in terms of predictive performance, profit and operational efficiency. Our results indicate that underbagging is a valid and reliable alternative framework for CCP prediction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 3","pages":"2401 - 2421"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scheduling problems on parallel dedicated machines with non-renewable resource 具有不可再生资源的并行专用机器的调度问题

IF 4.4 3区管理学

Annals of Operations Research Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-025-06471-5

Baruch Mor, Joanna Berlińska

引用次数: 0