Christine Alison Cirovic, Paul Fishman, Ramon Casanova, Su Yon Jung, Matthew Nudy, Holly Ruth Harris
{"title":"Refining Allostatic Load Measurement: Mortality Associations of an Empirically Derived Three-Component Score in the Women's Health Initiative.","authors":"Christine Alison Cirovic, Paul Fishman, Ramon Casanova, Su Yon Jung, Matthew Nudy, Holly Ruth Harris","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag240","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Allostatic load (AL) is a multisystem index of physiological dysregulation due to chronic stress. Although widely applied, its operationalization remains inconsistent, limiting reproducibility and equity. Streamlined indices based on common biomarkers may enhance feasibility across settings. Using data from 150 293 postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative, we evaluated the construct validity of a streamlined, multisystem AL index. Biomarkers across cardiovascular, metabolic, and immune domains were screened for stable associations with mortality. The final three-component AL index included systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, and white blood cell count. Cox proportional hazards models estimated associations with all-cause, cardiovascular, and immune/inflammatory mortality, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Higher AL scores were strongly associated with mortality. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.30-1.38), 1.74 (1.68-1.80), and 2.27 (2.15-2.39) for scores of 1, 2, and 3 versus 0 (Ptrend < 0.001), with similar patterns observed for cardiovascular and immune/inflammatory mortality. A streamlined, multisystem AL index comprised of systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, and white blood cell count demonstrated robust associations with mortality outcomes, supporting the feasibility of such an operationalization of AL, which may enhance reproducibility and extend the applicability of AL indices in large-scale and resource-limited contexts.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149035616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Catherine Wiener, Chase Latour, Kathleen E Hurwitz, Xiaojuan Li, Catherine R Lesko, Alexander Breskin, Maurice A Brookhart
{"title":"Comparing causal estimands from sequential nested versus single point target trials: a simulation study.","authors":"Catherine Wiener, Chase Latour, Kathleen E Hurwitz, Xiaojuan Li, Catherine R Lesko, Alexander Breskin, Maurice A Brookhart","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag227","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwag227","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149035631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chen Sheng, Brittney Francis, Sharonda M Lovett, Mary D Willis, Wendy Kuohung, Jacqueline Hicks, Junenette L Peters, Lauren A Wise, Yvette C Cozier, Amelia K Wesselink
{"title":"Residential Segregation and Fecundability in the Black Women's Health Study.","authors":"Chen Sheng, Brittney Francis, Sharonda M Lovett, Mary D Willis, Wendy Kuohung, Jacqueline Hicks, Junenette L Peters, Lauren A Wise, Yvette C Cozier, Amelia K Wesselink","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag229","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Residential segregation can influence reproductive outcomes, yet few studies have investigated its effects on fertility. We used data from the Black Women's Health Study, a U.S. prospective cohort study, to estimate the effect of racialized economic segregation on fecundability, the per-cycle probability of conception. Participants enrolled in 1995 and completed biennial follow-up questionnaires. A supplemental module in 2011 asked participants to report, for each birth, whether the pregnancy was planned and the number of months to conceive. Participants also reported any attempts to conceive for ≥ 12 months without success. We operationalized racialized economic segregation using the census tract level Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICErace + income). We fit proportional probabilities regression models with generalized estimating equations to estimate fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% CIs, adjusting for age, calendar year, geographic region, early life socioeconomic position, and educational attainment. The analysis included 2857 planned pregnancy attempts from 2183 participants (mean age = 34 years). Relative to participants living in the most privileged group, FRs for participants in the most marginalized, mixed (marginalized) and mixed (privileged) groups were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.74, 1.04), 0.89 (95% CI, 0.78, 1.02), and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80, 1.04), respectively. Associations were stronger among college-educated and nulliparous participants.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149035634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Beyond poverty and education: measuring structural racism in neighborhoods to understand racialized birth outcome disparities.","authors":"Brittney Francis, Amelia K Wesselink","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag193","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Neighborhood context is a root cause of poor health and racial health disparities, including disparities in adverse birth outcomes. In a recent article, XXXX et al. leveraged a multi-generationally linked dataset of South Carolina birth certificates to construct life course trajectories of census tract-level neighborhood affluence and disadvantage (Am J Epidemiol 2025;XXX(XX):XXX-XXX). This innovative study contributes to the literature on neighborhood context and perinatal health by highlighting the relevance of a life course approach, interrogating the role of neighborhood affluence and disadvantage on racial disparities, and extending this research to the U.S. South. In this commentary, we reiterate and expand on these points. First, we argue for the importance of explicitly integrating life course theory into neighborhoods and reproductive health research and assessing neighborhood context at several time points. Second, we encourage future studies to develop exposure measures that have a clear point of intervention and address the complex process of structural racism, rather than focusing on neighborhood composition. Finally, we emphasize the importance of considering the life course of neighborhoods themselves. Future research should interrogate historical and contemporary practices of neighborhood-level marginalization to create clear calls to action on how we can intervene to improve perinatal outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149035601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Causal inference of multiple interrelated exposures: Contributions of ischemic placental disease to preterm delivery.","authors":"Wen Wei Loh, Cande V Ananth","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag230","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Ischemic placental disease (IPD) involves three obstetrical complications - preeclampsia, placental abruption, and fetal growth restriction - and is implicated in up to 55% of early deliveries. Despite substantial overlap in their etiology and epidemiologic risk profiles, existing studies have assessed their effects independently. Using data from the Consortium on Safe Labor (2002-2008; n = 203, 990), we examined the composite and separate effects of the IPD conditions on spontaneous and indicated preterm delivery (sPTD and iPTD). We systematically specified joint IPD probabilities, corresponding to combinations of hypothetical stochastic and deterministic interventions. Eliminating all IPD reduced sPTD (RR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.92, 0.94) and iPTD (RR = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.64, 0.67) from observed levels. Eliminating preeclampsia alone reduced sPTD (RR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.94, 0.95) and iPTD (RR = 0.72; 95% CI=0.71, 0.73). Partially reducing joint IPD co-occurrence among 58% of individuals who met criteria for high-risk, by magnitudes drawn from separate low-dose aspirin meta-analyses, yielded minimal reductions for sPTD (RR = 0.99; 95% CI=0.98, 0.99) and iPTD (RR = 0.89; 95%CI=0.88, 0.89). Preeclampsia drives IPD's association with both PTD subtypes; under the stated assumptions, hypothetically eliminating preeclampsia yielded the largest iPTD reduction.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149023680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kevin Josey, Wenhui Liu, Theodore Warsavage, Morten Medici, Kajsa Kvist, Catherine G Derington, Jane E B Reusch, Debashis Ghosh, Sridharan Raghavan
{"title":"Real-world cardiovascular effects of liraglutide: transportability analysis of the LEADER trial.","authors":"Kevin Josey, Wenhui Liu, Theodore Warsavage, Morten Medici, Kajsa Kvist, Catherine G Derington, Jane E B Reusch, Debashis Ghosh, Sridharan Raghavan","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag236","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwag236","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Appropriate use of recently approved type 2 diabetes treatments depends on external validity of landmark clinical trials (RCTs) in real-world populations that may differ from trial participants. This study transported effect estimates from the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcome Results (LEADER) trial, a placebo-controlled RCT of liraglutide on cardiovascular outcomes, onto real-world cohorts within the Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system. Risk differences (RD) in survival outcomes, approximated using pseudo-observations of individual survival probabilities, were estimated with augmented inverse probability weighting after balancing baseline characteristics between RCT and target samples using approximate balancing weights. Transported effects of liraglutide compared to placebo on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in veterans (\"VA-weighted LEADER\") were larger than, though statistically consistent with, the treatment effects observed in LEADER: MACE RD at 3 years of 4.6% [95% CI 2.2, 7.0] in VA-weighted LEADER versus 1.6% [0.3, 2.9] in LEADER; all-cause mortality RD at 3 years of 2.9% [0.8, 5.1] in VA-weighted LEADER versus 0.9% [-0.09, 1.9] in LEADER. These estimates of the effects of liraglutide in veterans with diabetes provide real-world evidence that can guide diabetes treatment decisions and formulary policies for a high-risk population underrepresented in RCTs.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149015291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Katelyn M Holliday, Elliot D Hill, Heather R Batchelder, Ashley E Price, Candice Y Johnson, Anthony J Viera, Truls Østbye
{"title":"Deaths of Despair among Former Military Service Members, Massachusetts (2014-2021) and Minnesota (2014-2022).","authors":"Katelyn M Holliday, Elliot D Hill, Heather R Batchelder, Ashley E Price, Candice Y Johnson, Anthony J Viera, Truls Østbye","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag233","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>People who served in the U.S. armed forces-former service members (FSMs)-may be at increased risk of deaths of despair: alcohol-related, drug-related, and suicide deaths. We linked 2014-2021 Massachusetts and 2014-2022 Minnesota death certificates for decedents aged 18-64 years with military personnel files to describe deaths of despair in FSM and non-military populations. We calculated age- and sex-standardized proportionate mortality ratios (PMR) for all FSMs and three-year rolling average age-standardized mortality rates for FSMs with active duty experience. We mapped the geographic distribution of these deaths and describe patterns by service history. Of 176,719 decedents, 9.5% were FSMs. FSMs were more likely to die from a death of despair than non-military populations (PMR (95% Confidence Interval), MA: 111.9 (107.0, 117.0), MN: 106.7 (101.4, 112.2)), specifically suicide deaths (MA, MN) and drug-related deaths (MA). Mortality rates displayed similar trends. FSM deaths of despair occurred a median of 20-30 years after military separation and were most common among those with Coast Guard, Marine, or Army service and Bad Conduct/Dishonorable or Uncharacterized separations. FSMs have higher burden of deaths of despair than non-military populations with patterns that vary by service history, warranting further investigation into contributing military, individual, and community factors.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149011788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luis Esteban Segura, Rodrigo Zepeda-Tello, Seth J Prins, Silvia S Martins
{"title":"Does despair drive increases in white mortality, or did the narrative get ahead of the data?","authors":"Luis Esteban Segura, Rodrigo Zepeda-Tello, Seth J Prins, Silvia S Martins","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag235","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aim of this study is to test the central claim of the \"deaths of despair\" theory: that rising despair among midlife white Americans has driven increases in all-cause mortality, particularly in those with low education. We analyzed time series of annual all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 (N=92,700 individuals) and despair (N=88,872 individuals) among US midlife (aged 45-54) adults from the CDC and NIH between 1999-2015. The association between changes in despair and changes in mortality rates were estimated via Bayesian autoregressive models with AR(1) errors. Race/ethnicity and education-specific estimates were obtained via marginal standardization. All-cause mortality increased by 7.49 per 100,000 only among midlife white adults, with a larger increase among those with low education (51.4 per 100,000). Despair prevalence did not increase exclusively among midlife white adults, increasing by 0.13% (-0.03%; 0.29%) and 0.12% (-0.27%; 0.51%) among white and Black midlife adults. The observed increases in despair among whites in midlife were not associated with increases in mortality rates (-0.12 per 100,000; 95%UI=-0.54; 0.29). These findings directly challenge the central claim of this theory and highlight the need to move beyond the white despair narrative to explain US mortality trends.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149011768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dan Wang, Natalie R Daya, Mary R Rooney, Arielle Valint, Melissa Minotti, Michael Fang, Shengyuan Luo, Lynne E Wagenknecht, B Gwen Windham, Pamela L Lutsey, David Couper, Josef Coresh, Justin B Echouffo-Tcheugui, Lin Yee Chen, Elizabeth Selvin
{"title":"Rationale and Design of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Generation 2 (ARIC Gen2) Study.","authors":"Dan Wang, Natalie R Daya, Mary R Rooney, Arielle Valint, Melissa Minotti, Michael Fang, Shengyuan Luo, Lynne E Wagenknecht, B Gwen Windham, Pamela L Lutsey, David Couper, Josef Coresh, Justin B Echouffo-Tcheugui, Lin Yee Chen, Elizabeth Selvin","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag237","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwag237","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Type 2 diabetes is a risk factor for cardiac arrhythmias, but it is unknown how specific aberrations in glucose (e.g., episodes of high or low glucose) might contribute to the occurrence of heart rhythm abnormalities. The overarching goal of this study is to address research questions regarding how glucose patterns might contribute to the occurrence of arrhythmias, primarily atrial fibrillation, in adults with diabetes. To fulfill this goal, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Gen2 study recruited 507 community-dwelling adults aged 50-80 years with type 2 diabetes to wear continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and electrocardiogram (ECG) \"patch\" monitoring sensors simultaneously for up to 14 days. Gen2 study had high CGM and ECG completeness: the median wear time for sensors was 14 days and approximately 80% of participants wore both sensors for ≥10 days. By combining Gen2 and data from the original ongoing ARIC cohort (aged 80+), we have the capacity to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of CGM-defined glucose patterns on arrhythmias across a wide age spectrum from middle-aged to very old adults (aged 50-100) with type 2 diabetes. The findings from this study may help inform clinical strategies for the prevention and management of arrhythmias among adults with type 2 diabetes.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149011821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Hypothetical interventions on alcohol consumption and risk of mortality in healthy women: emulated target trials from the Norwegian women and health study.","authors":"Fjorida Llaha, Yu-Han Chiu, Idlir Licaj, Tom Wilsgaard, Kristin Benjaminsen Borch","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag232","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We applied target trial emulation and the parametric g-formula to evaluate the effects of sustained alcohol consumption on 23-year mortality. Healthy women aged ≥ 35 years from the Norwegian Women and Health Study who completed questionnaires in 1998-2003 were eligible for the emulated trials (A and B). Trial B included only women reporting moderate alcohol consumption before baseline. In total, 57 964 and 14 393 women met the eligibility criteria for Trials A and B, respectively. The observed 23-year all-cause mortality risk was 6.97%. In Trial A, 23-year mortality risk differences (RDs) versus no intervention were 0.29% (95% CI, 0.02%, 0.58%) for no alcohol consumption, 0.12% (95% CI, 0.07%, 0.20%) for low consumption (>0 to 2 drinks/week), and - 0.44% (95% CI, -0.66%, -0.25%) for moderate consumption (>2 to 7 drinks/week). The lower mortality associated with moderate drinking was observed only among women aged ≥ 50 years. In Trial B, the 23-year mortality RD of reducing to low/no consumption (≤2 drinks/week) versus maintaining moderate consumption was 1.07% (95% CI, 0.10%, 1.66%). The results suggest a slight decrease in mortality from moderate alcohol consumption, particularly among women aged ≥ 50 years. In addition, the results suggest slightly increased mortality when reducing alcohol consumption from moderate levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149011750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}