{"title":"Model selection and model robustness for population size estimation in 2-sample capture-recapture studies.","authors":"Gracia Y Dong, Jennifer McNichol, Laura L E Cowen","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf004","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf004","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Two-sample capture-recapture studies are commonly used in the epidemiologic and ecological literature. Most of these studies have been limited to analysis using the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, especially in epidemiologic studies. We examine the use of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and 2 alternative closed-population methods: Huggins' conditional likelihood method and Pledger's likelihood method with mixtures. We assessed the ability of Akaike information criterion (AIC) to perform model selection when time, behavioral effects, or heterogeneity are present in capture probabilities. In addition, we examined the effects of model misspecification on estimates of population size. An extensive simulation study found that these models are not robust to misspecification and that AIC was not capable of selecting the correct model with 2 capture occasions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2705-2714"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142969299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Giorgio Limoncella, Leonardo Grilli, Emanuela Dreassi, Carla Rampichini, Robert Platt, Rosa Gini
{"title":"Addressing bias due to measurement error of an outcome with unknown sensitivity in database epidemiologic studies. A contribution from the ConcePTION project.","authors":"Giorgio Limoncella, Leonardo Grilli, Emanuela Dreassi, Carla Rampichini, Robert Platt, Rosa Gini","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae423","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae423","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In epidemiologic database studies, the occurrence of an event is measured with error through an indicator whose specificity is often maximized, at the expense of sensitivity. However, if the indicator has low sensitivity, measures of occurrence are underestimated. In association studies, risk difference is biased, and risk ratio may be biased as well, in either direction, if the sensitivity is differential across exposure groups. In this work, we show that if an auxiliary screening indicator can be defined to complement the main indicator, estimates of the positive predictive value of both indicators provide tools to estimate the sensitivity of the primary indicator or a lower bound thereof. This mitigates bias in estimating the number of cases, prevalence, cumulative incidence, rate (particularly when the event is rare), and, in association studies, risk ratio and risk difference. They also allow testing for nondifferential sensitivity. Although direct estimation of sensitivity is often infeasible, this novel methodology improves evidence based on data obtained from reuse of existing databases, which may prove critical for regulatory and public health decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2570-2579"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12409137/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142543061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Depression risk associated with spouses' diabetes and cardiovascular events: a nationwide cohort study.","authors":"Toshiaki Komura, Yusuke Tsugawa, Daisuke Yabe, Naoki Kondo, Kosuke Inoue","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf075","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf075","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Little is known about whether spouse's diabetes is associated with subsequent depression of individuals. Moreover, evidence is lacking regarding whether a spouse's subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) mediates its association. We examined 521 010 married couples enrolled in the Japan Health Insurance Association Health Insurance Program between 2015 and 2021. The index individuals (primary insured) were depression-free when their spouse (dependent) experienced the first diabetes diagnosis between 2016 and 2021. Each index individual was matched in a 1:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between spouses' diabetes and individuals' new-onset depression. Mediation analysis was used to quantify the mediating role of CVD on this association. Among matched index individuals (mean age, 54.1), spouse's CVD occurred in 38 281 cases (7.3%) over a median follow-up of 34 months. The spouse's diabetes was associated with an individual's depression (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04-1.12]), and the estimated pure indirect effect was 1.02 (95% CI, 1.00-1.03). When using dependents as index individuals, we found a similar magnitude of total effect while the indirect effect was null. These findings highlight the importance of household-level mental health support for patients with diabetes following its diagnosis, as well as preventing CVD in the patients themselves.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"2715-2723"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12409133/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143963907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ilona Csizmadi, Beatrice A Boucher, Vikki Ho, Jennifer E Vena, Anita Koushik
{"title":"Differences between the Canadian and US Diet History Questionnaires and their updated versions. (Letter-to-the-editor re: \"Agreement between the National Cancer Institute's Diet History Questionnaire II and III in a preconception cohort\").","authors":"Ilona Csizmadi, Beatrice A Boucher, Vikki Ho, Jennifer E Vena, Anita Koushik","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf154","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Victoria L Stevens, Jessica Priest, Jesse Wilkerson, Aimee A D'Aloisio, Dale P Sandler
{"title":"Weight Cycling and Cancer Risk in the Sister Study.","authors":"Victoria L Stevens, Jessica Priest, Jesse Wilkerson, Aimee A D'Aloisio, Dale P Sandler","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf191","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf191","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Weight cycling, when weight is repeatedly lost intentionally and then regained, may perturb biological processes that could influence cancer development. However, results from epidemiologic studies of weight cycling are mixed and provide no clear answer as to whether this behavior alters cancer risk. We examined the association of weight cycling and cancer incidence among 45,004 women enrolled in the Sister Study (2003-2009) and followed through October 12, 2020. Weight cycling was defined using baseline responses about the number of times ≥20 pounds (9 kilograms) was lost and then regained. Multivariable-adjusted hazards ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all cancers and five individual cancers (breast, endometrial, ovarian, colorectal, and kidney) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Weight cycling was not associated with an increased risk of any cancer after bodyweight was adjusted for and was inversely associated with risk of all cancers (HR 6+ episodes 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-0.97; P-trend <0.01) and breast cancer (HR 6 + episodes 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.97; P-trend <0.01). The inverse trend for breast cancer was only seen in obese and in postmenopausal women. These findings suggest that weight cycling, independent of bodyweight, does not increase cancer risk and, for breast cancer, is associated with decreased risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12498545/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joy Shi, Sonja A Swanson, Elizabeth W Diemer, Hanna Gerlovin, Daniel C Posner, Peter W F Wilson, J Michael Gaziano, Kelly Cho, Miguel A Hernán, On Behalf Of The Va Million Veteran Program
{"title":"Mendelian randomization, lipids and coronary artery disease: trade-offs between study designs and assumptions.","authors":"Joy Shi, Sonja A Swanson, Elizabeth W Diemer, Hanna Gerlovin, Daniel C Posner, Peter W F Wilson, J Michael Gaziano, Kelly Cho, Miguel A Hernán, On Behalf Of The Va Million Veteran Program","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf190","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf190","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mendelian randomization (MR) studies have been described as naturally occurring randomized trials. However, MR studies often deviate from appropriate trial design principles, and many use two-sample designs with strong assumptions not required in randomized trials. Using data from the Million Veteran Program, we empirically evaluated the impact of study design choices and two-sample approaches in an MR study of lipids and coronary artery disease. We designed an MR study of participants of European descent with no history of coronary artery disease and no contraindications to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-related therapies to estimate 10-year odds ratios of coronary artery disease per 39 mg/dL increase in LDL-C or 15.8 mg/dL increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). We then sequentially modified the design to reflect common decisions made in MR studies. For LDL-C, one-sample estimates ranged from 1.50 (95% CI: 1.34, 1.68) to 2.23 (95% CI: 1.93, 2.59) and two-sample estimates from 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.26) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.46). For HDL-C, estimates ranged from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.86) to 0.93 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.34) across one- vs two-sample analyses. Estimates were most sensitive to the inclusion of prevalent outcomes. These results indicate the magnitude of MR estimates can vary with study design. We recommend future MR studies assess the sensitivity of estimates to different design decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isabelle Niedhammer, Hélène Sultan-Taïeb, Yamna Taouk, Anthony D LaMontagne
{"title":"To what extent can attributable fractions in occupational epidemiology be estimated in the absence of key data?","authors":"Isabelle Niedhammer, Hélène Sultan-Taïeb, Yamna Taouk, Anthony D LaMontagne","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf188","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In a recent paper, Ghoroubi et al. (Am J Epidemiol 2025 Jan 8;194(1):302-310) used the indirect attributable fraction (AF) method to provide estimates of fractions of all-cause mortality attributable to work-related factors. This commentary discusses the limitations and potential of this paper, and provides insights and guidance to make optimal use of indirect AF estimation in occupational epidemiology. The crucial steps are the choice of the datasets and input data related to the prevalence of exposure and relative risk (RR), requiring comparability of time period, population characteristics, and the definition and measurement of exposure. Published systematic literature reviews with meta-analyses are essential or, if not available, conducting meta-analyses to provide estimates of RR. Finally, it is important to verify the assumptions for the chosen AF formula including evidence of causality, consideration of confounding and (in)dependence between exposures when several exposures are studied at the same time. We conclude by suggesting that the paper by Ghoroubi et al. may have provided a proof of concept for one work-related factor only, but considerable additional research will be required to represent work-related factors overall.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reducing PM2.5 Exposure Lowers Dyslipidemia Risk: A Longitudinal Quasi-Experimental Study.","authors":"Dezhong Chen, Yiyue Yin, Dongmei Yu, Ling Zhang, Weiyi Chen, Jian Xu, Ting Xiao, Hung Chak Ho, Neil Thomas, Yu Huang, Xiang Qian Lao","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf192","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Evidence demonstrating the beneficial effects of improved air quality on lipid health is scarce. This study addresses this gap by examining whether reducing PM2.5 exposure can decrease the risk of dyslipidemia. We conducted a longitudinal quasi-experimental study using the Taiwan MJ and Hong Kong MJ cohorts from 2000 to 2018. A total of 8,808 adults with consistently high PM2.5 exposure (≥ 25 μg/m3) were paired with 4,612 adults whose PM2.5 exposure decreased from high to low levels (< 25 μg/m3) using propensity score matching. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to analyze the associations between PM2.5 reduction and the risk of dyslipidemia, as well as individual lipid abnormalities. We found that participants with reducing PM2.5 exposure had a significantly lower risk of dyslipidemia compared to their counterparts (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.84). Non-linear concentration-response relationships were observed. Similar associations were found for elevated TC (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.74) and LDL-C (HR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.84), and decreased HDL-C (HR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.75). Reducing PM2.5 exposure significantly lowers the risk of dyslipidemia and improves lipid profiles, providing direct evidence of the health benefits associated with air quality improvement.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Combining the list-experiment and direct question to improve estimation of abortion incidence.","authors":"Heide M Jackson, Michael S Rendall","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf185","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf185","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Abortion has been found to be severely underreported overall, and underreported differentially across groups, when using a direct question. The list-experiment method attempts to overcome these reporting biases indirectly by asking how many items an individual has experienced, but not which, where abortion is one of the items asked to a randomly-assigned 'treatment' group but not to a control group. Abortion incidence is estimated as the difference in the mean number of items reported between the treatment and control groups. If list-experiment respondents are also asked a direct abortion question, a combined-data estimator can be constructed from respondents with and without affirmative responses to the direct question. We assess for four U.S. states how this combined estimator may improve estimation of cumulative lifetime abortion incidence relative to the direct question or the list experiment alone. Our combined-data estimate across the four states is 12.9% (95% CI: 10.5, 15.4), which is substantively and statistically higher than both the list-experiment estimate (11.0%, CI: 8.9, 13.2) and the direct-question estimate (9.6%, CI: 8.6, 10.5). Bias by state is much more variable for the direct question than for the list experiment. We conclude that the combined-data estimator improves estimation especially over the direct question.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12442784/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mateo P Farina, Eric T Klopack, Flavia C D Andrade
{"title":"The \"long arm of childhood\" on mortality in older adulthood in the United States and Brazil: examining the role of educational attainment and differences by gender.","authors":"Mateo P Farina, Eric T Klopack, Flavia C D Andrade","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf186","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf186","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Early life conditions are associated with later life health. However, research in this area has been based on high-income countries, with limited research in low- and middle-income countries. We examine how childhood conditions are associated with mortality in older adulthood in the United States and Brazil, while evaluating the role of educational attainment and gender differences.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data come from the HRS and ELSI-Brazil. We use structural equation modeling to examine direct and indirect pathways from childhood conditions to mortality in older adulthood for men and women.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Results showed substantial differences between Brazil and the United States. Childhood health was associated with increased mortality risk in the United States, not in Brazil. Adverse childhood conditions were associated with increased mortality in Brazil and the United States, but we found a large indirect pathway through educational attainment in the UNITED STATES Lastly, we found notable gender differences across both countries, with indirect pathways for UNITED STATES men and Brazilian women (not their counterparts).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Findings point to the malleability of the association of childhood conditions on adulthood mortality risk. Future work should consider how exposures and opportunities combine to influence life course developments of health and aging processes in diverse populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144938698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}