PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"Natural regeneration of drylands and associated pathways to human health outcomes: Perspectives from rural households","authors":"P. Murage, Ayoub Asenga, Angelina Tarimo, Tabby Njunge, Thijs van der Zaan, F. Chiwanga","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000206","url":null,"abstract":"Land degradation and climate change are intertwined global challenges, their implications on human health are driven by the unsustainable use of natural resources, resulting in the loss of vital ecosystem services that support human health. There are equity implications in that landscape degradation disproportionately affects vulnerable populations that live in the most fragile ecosystems. Solutions to reverse degradation are increasingly considered attractive because of their ability to meet multiple societal objectives, however, their implementation has outpaced research on impact; the research and evidence gaps are particularly acute in relation to quantifying the health and well-being impacts of nature-based solutions. This study documents the experiences of rural communities implementing Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) in Central Tanzanian drylands, which integrates trees in agricultural landscapes. FMNR technique has been hailed as the largest positive environmental transformation in African drylands due to its effectiveness in restoring landscapes at very low costs. Despite its success, the impact on human well-being is largely unquantified. We used in-depth group discussions across four villages to document how respondents perceive the health and well-being impacts of natural regeneration. We thereafter adapted the ecosystem services cascade model to conceptualise the pathways between natural regeneration and impact on health and well-being. Respondents across all study sites unanimously reported how FMNR implementation has reversed decades of land degradation, resulting in physical and mental health benefits that can be linked to food and nutritional security, improved air and water quality, income diversification, heat adaptation and gender equality. We demonstrate how the application of the cascade model can generate causal pathways that 1) map how changes in ecosystem structure, functions and services can result in measurable health outcomes, and, 2) support empirical investigation by defining concrete metrics for monitoring and evaluation of interventions.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"26 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140738153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Kicking around in the wreck","authors":"J. Fanzo","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000401","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"42 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140743328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors","authors":"J. Verschuur, Alberto Fernández-Pérez, Evelyn Mühlhofer, S. Nirandjan, E. Borgomeo, Olivia Becher, A. Voskaki, E. Oughton, Andrej Stankovski, S. Greco, E. Koks, R. Pant, Jim W. Hall","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331","url":null,"abstract":"Infrastructure systems are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, such as flooding, wildfires, cyclones and temperature fluctuations. Responding to these threats in a proportionate and targeted way requires quantitative analysis of climate risks, which underpins infrastructure resilience and adaptation strategies. The aim of this paper is to review the recent developments in quantitative climate risk analysis for key infrastructure sectors, including water and wastewater, telecommunications, health and education, transport (seaports, airports, road, rail and inland waterways), and energy (generation, transmission and distribution). We identify several overarching research gaps, which include the (i) limited consideration of multi-hazard and multi-infrastructure interactions within a single modelling framework, (ii) scarcity of studies focusing on certain combinations of climate hazards and infrastructure types, (iii) difficulties in scaling-up climate risk analysis across geographies, (iv) increasing challenge of validating models, (v) untapped potential of further knowledge spillovers across sectors, (vi) need to embed equity considerations into modelling frameworks, and (vii) quantifying a wider set of impact metrics. We argue that a cross-sectoral systems approach enables knowledge sharing and a better integration of infrastructure interdependencies between multiple sectors.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140743153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review","authors":"Emily J. Wilkins, Lydia Horne","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000266","url":null,"abstract":"Weather, climate, and climate change all effect outdoor recreation and tourism, and will continue to cause a multitude of effects as the climate warms. We conduct a systematic literature review to better understand how weather, climate, and climate change affect outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism across the United States. We specifically explore how the effects differ by recreational activity, and how visitors and supply-side tourism operators perceive these effects and risks. The 82 papers reviewed show the complex ways in which weather, climate, and climate change may affect outdoor recreation, with common themes being an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities, a shorter season to participate in snow-dependent activities, and larger negative effects to activities that depend on somewhat consistent precipitation levels (e.g., snow-based recreation, water-based recreation, fishing). Nature-based tourists perceive a variety of climate change effects on tourism, and some recreationists have already changed their behavior as a result of climate change. Nature-based tourism suppliers are already noticing a wide variety of climate change effects, including shifts in seasonality of specific activities and visitation overall. Collectively, this review provides insights into our current understanding of climate change and outdoor recreation and opportunities for future research.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"43 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140750314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying and evaluating strategies to decrease carbon dioxide emissions generated from tourism to Yellowstone National Park","authors":"Emily J. Wilkins, Dani T. Dagan, Jordan W. Smith","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000391","url":null,"abstract":"The tourism industry needs strategies to reduce emissions and hasten the achievement of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction targets. Using a case study approach, we estimated CO2 emissions related to park tourism in Yellowstone National Park (USA) generated from transit to and from the park, transit within the park, accommodations, and park operations. Results indicate tourism to Yellowstone National Park produces an estimated 1.03 megaton (1.03 billion kg) of CO2-equivalent emissions annually, with an average of 479 kg CO2 per visitor. Almost 90% of these emissions were attributable to transit to and from the destination, while 5% were from transit within the park, 4% from overnight accommodations, and about 1% from other park operations (e.g., visitor centers, museums, shops, restaurants, etc.). Visitors who fly only made up about 35% of all visitors, but produced 72% of the emissions related to transit to and from the park. Future scenarios that alter transit to and from the park can reduce emissions the most; this includes a greater proportion of local or regional visitors, fewer visitors flying, and increased fuel efficiency of vehicles. The method developed in this work, and applied specifically to Yellowstone National Park, can be adopted elsewhere and used to help decision makers evaluate the effectiveness of potential emission reduction strategies.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"694 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140749171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate factors associated with cancer incidence: An ecological study covering 33 cancers from population-based registries in 37 countries","authors":"Haowen Wang, Hongmei Zeng, Hui Miao, Chang Shu, Yuming Guo, John S. Ji","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000362","url":null,"abstract":"Cancer etiology is multifactorial, with climate change and environmental factors such as extreme weather events and ozone layer destruction potentially increasing cancer risk. Investigating climate factors with cancer incidence can provide valuable insights for prevention and future disease burden prediction. We conducted a population-based ecological study using data from the World Health Organization’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus, 89 cancer registries from 1998 to 2012) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER, 607 US counties from 2000 to 2018) Program. We tracked climate factors through satellite-based remote sensing, including green space, stratospheric ozone concentration, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. We performed linear panel regression models to estimate the effects of both long-term exposure, lag effect, and change rate of climate factors on cancer incidences. We adjusted for smoking prevalence, air pollution, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to account for potential confounding factors. Our study included more than 430 million underlying populations across 37 countries. Higher green space exposure (per 0.1-unit normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was associated with decreased incidence of lung cancer (up to 6.66 cases [95%CI 4.38–8.93] per 100,000) and prostate cancer (up to 10.84 cases [95% CI 7.73–13.95] per 100,000). Increased solar radiation was associated with a higher incidence of melanoma, but a lower incidence of prostate cancer. No evidence was found to suggest associations between temperature or precipitation and cancer incidence. However, a rapid increase in temperature was linked to higher incidences of corpus uteri cancer and melanoma. Long-term exposure and rapid changes in climate factors may influence changes in cancer incidence, particularly lung and prostate cancers. While some associations were supported by existing evidence (such as solar radiation and melanoma), further research is necessary to investigate the etiology of novel cancer risk factors.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"90 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140371112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Narrowed gene functions and enhanced transposon activity are associated with high tolerance to ocean acidification in a juvenile subarctic crustacean","authors":"Laura H. Spencer, W. C. Long, Ingrid B. Spies, Krista M. Nichols, Robert J. Foy","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000319","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean acidification (OA) threatens marine crustaceans, particularly those at high latitudes where conditions are rapidly changing. Red king crab (RKC) support important fisheries in Alaskan waters. RKC early life stages are sensitive to OA when exposure occurs as embryos and juveniles. However, in a supporting study, RKC were surprisingly tolerant of varying OA conditions (pH 7.5, 7.8, & 8.0) when reared long-term from larval hatching to the first crab stage (C1). Here, we examined gene expression in the C1 juveniles to characterize transcriptional activity of these OA-tolerant crabs. Expression of nearly half of all genes (44%) correlated with OA treatment, suggesting a strong molecular response to OA, contrary to the phenotypic results. Downregulated functions were numerous in response to OA, and included reduced energy production, biosynthesis, immune function, and notably lipid and carbohydrate metabolic processes, which suggest a shift in metabolic strategy to protein catabolism, possibly to reduce CO2 production and facilitate acid/base regulation. Only a handful of functions were enriched in OA-induced genes, which were related to transcription regulation, control of growth and cell death, and signaling activity. Transposon activity was high in OA-reared crab, many of which were upregulated at consistent levels, suggesting that transposon mobilization may be a component of the RKC OA-response system. Genetic composition did not differ among OA treatments indicating that transcriptional differences in OA-reared crab were more likely attributed to phenotypic plasticity than selective mortality. Our results suggest that OA-reared RKC have a narrowed, possibly optimized, set of gene functions that enables OA-tolerance through the early juvenile stage. OA-exposure from hatch may benefit RKC and related species by “hardening” them against OA through physiological reprogramming. Future studies should test OA-hardened crabs in additional challenges, as metabolic and immune limitations may ultimately make them more vulnerable to infection or secondary stressors.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"81 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140371087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emotional signatures of climate policy support","authors":"Teresa A. Myers, C. Roser-Renouf, A. Leiserowitz, E. Maibach","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000381","url":null,"abstract":"The optimal emotional tone for climate communication has been debated by scholars and the press, but little is known about the effects of emotions on different types of policy support. In this paper we examine multiple discrete emotions people experience in reaction to climate change, and assess the strength of these emotions as predictors of support for different types of mitigation and adaptation policies. Using multi-wave, cross-sectional, nationally representative samples of American adults, we test whether guilt, anger, hope, fear, and sadness are uniquely associated with support for different types of climate policies. Guilt is most strongly related to support for personally costly policies, hope to support for proactive policies, and fear to support for regulatory policies. This research suggests that communicators should consider how their climate campaign’s emotional tone aligns with their policy goals.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"5 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140374947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local social-ecological context explains seasonal rural-rural migration of the poorest in south-west Bangladesh","authors":"L. Clech, J. Sierra, M. Mannan, Mollah M. Shamsul Kabir, Mrittika Barua, J. Espinoza, Valery Ridde","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000239","url":null,"abstract":"Bangladesh is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Internal migration is often presented as a response to environmental degradation. Here, using a people-centred perspective, we explore the complexity of the links between climate-induced change, environmental degradation caused by waterlogging and seasonal rural migration. We used an inductive qualitative approach in social sciences, conducting fourteen semi-directed interviews and six focus group discussions in March-April 2022. We related those results to a rainfall analysis on CHIRPS data for 1981-2021and we represented interactions and feedback between changes and livelihoods in a model. A complex picture of the situation is emerging, showing the interweaving effects of non-climatic and climatic changes, their interplay at different scales, their cumulative effects, the interactions between livelihood types and feedback between social and natural systems. Most of the climate-induced changes gradually become noticeable over the past 25 years. Climate data confirm these changes in recent decades, with July being wetter and January being dryer. Villagers reported waterlogging as the most significant change in their community, pointing to its multiple causes, originating in non-local and local, non-climatic anthropic changes, exacerbated by shrimp farm enclosures and worsened by climate-induced changes such as heavier rains, wetter monsoons and cyclones. Tiger prawn farms, reported as a lucrative and local adaptation to waterlogging and salinisation for the ones who can afford it, worsen the situation for the less wealthy, causing waterlogging and salinisation of the adjacent agricultural lands and buildings, the disappearance of traditional fishing and a reduction of the local job market. In addition, erratic rain patterns, droughts and cyclones affect local production and labour markets. COVID-19 lockdowns, by impacting markets and mobilities, further aggravated the situation. Inequality has increased as the range of adaptations of the less wealthy appears limited in this context of multiple crises.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"111 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140380382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Crowded and warmer: Unequal dengue risk at high spatial resolution across a megacity of India","authors":"V. Romeo-Aznar, O. Telle, M. Santos-Vega, R. Paul, Mercedes Pascual","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000240","url":null,"abstract":"The role of climate factors on transmission of mosquito-borne infections within urban landscapes must be considered in the context of the pronounced spatial heterogeneity of such environments. Socio-demographic and environmental variation challenge control efforts for emergent arboviruses transmitted via the urban mosquito Aedes aegypti. We address at high resolution, the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission risk in the megacity of Delhi, India, as a function of both temperature and the carrying-capacity of the human environment for the mosquito. Based on previous results predicting maximum mosquitoes per human for different socio-economic typologies, and on remote sensing temperature data, we produce a map of the reproductive number of dengue at a resolution of 250m by 250m. We focus on dengue risk hotspots during inter-epidemic periods, places where chains of transmission can persist for longer. We assess the resulting high-resolution risk map of dengue with reported cases for three consecutive boreal winters. We find that both temperature and vector carrying-capacity per human co-vary in space because of their respective dependence on population density. The synergistic action of these two factors results in larger variation of dengue’s reproductive number than when considered separately, with poor and dense locations experiencing the warmest conditions and becoming the most likely reservoirs off-season. The location of observed winter cases is accurately predicted for different risk threshold criteria. Results underscore the inequity of risk across a complex urban landscape, whereby individuals in dense poor neighborhoods face the compounded effect of higher temperatures and mosquito carrying capacity. Targeting chains of transmission in inter-epidemic periods at these locations should be a priority of control efforts. A better mapping is needed of the interplay between climate factors that are dominant determinants of the seasonality of vector-borne infections and the socio-economic conditions behind unequal exposure.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140384047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}