与癌症发病率相关的气候因素:一项生态研究,涵盖 37 个国家基于人口登记的 33 种癌症

Haowen Wang, Hongmei Zeng, Hui Miao, Chang Shu, Yuming Guo, John S. Ji
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引用次数: 0

摘要

癌症病因是多因素的,气候变化以及极端天气事件和臭氧层破坏等环境因素可能会增加癌症风险。调查与癌症发病率相关的气候因素可以为预防和预测未来的疾病负担提供有价值的见解。我们利用世界卫生组织的 "五大洲癌症发病率"(CI5plus,1998 年至 2012 年的 89 个癌症登记处)和 "监测、流行病学和最终结果"(SEER,2000 年至 2018 年的 607 个美国县)计划的数据,开展了一项基于人群的生态学研究。我们通过卫星遥感追踪气候因素,包括绿地、平流层臭氧浓度、太阳辐射、降水和温度。我们采用线性面板回归模型来估计气候因素的长期暴露、滞后效应和变化率对癌症发病率的影响。为了考虑潜在的混杂因素,我们对吸烟率、空气污染和人均国内生产总值(GDP)进行了调整。我们的研究涵盖了 37 个国家的 4.3 亿基础人口。较高的绿地暴露量(每 0.1 单位归一化差异植被指数,NDVI)与肺癌(每 100,000 人中高达 6.66 例 [95%CI 4.38-8.93])和前列腺癌(每 100,000 人中高达 10.84 例 [95%CI 7.73-13.95])发病率的降低有关。太阳辐射增加与黑色素瘤发病率升高有关,但与前列腺癌发病率降低有关。没有证据表明气温或降水量与癌症发病率有关。不过,气温迅速升高与子宫体癌和黑色素瘤发病率升高有关。气候因素的长期暴露和快速变化可能会影响癌症发病率的变化,尤其是肺癌和前列腺癌。虽然一些关联得到了现有证据的支持(如太阳辐射和黑色素瘤),但仍有必要开展进一步研究,以调查新型癌症风险因素的病因。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate factors associated with cancer incidence: An ecological study covering 33 cancers from population-based registries in 37 countries
Cancer etiology is multifactorial, with climate change and environmental factors such as extreme weather events and ozone layer destruction potentially increasing cancer risk. Investigating climate factors with cancer incidence can provide valuable insights for prevention and future disease burden prediction. We conducted a population-based ecological study using data from the World Health Organization’s Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus, 89 cancer registries from 1998 to 2012) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER, 607 US counties from 2000 to 2018) Program. We tracked climate factors through satellite-based remote sensing, including green space, stratospheric ozone concentration, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. We performed linear panel regression models to estimate the effects of both long-term exposure, lag effect, and change rate of climate factors on cancer incidences. We adjusted for smoking prevalence, air pollution, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to account for potential confounding factors. Our study included more than 430 million underlying populations across 37 countries. Higher green space exposure (per 0.1-unit normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was associated with decreased incidence of lung cancer (up to 6.66 cases [95%CI 4.38–8.93] per 100,000) and prostate cancer (up to 10.84 cases [95% CI 7.73–13.95] per 100,000). Increased solar radiation was associated with a higher incidence of melanoma, but a lower incidence of prostate cancer. No evidence was found to suggest associations between temperature or precipitation and cancer incidence. However, a rapid increase in temperature was linked to higher incidences of corpus uteri cancer and melanoma. Long-term exposure and rapid changes in climate factors may influence changes in cancer incidence, particularly lung and prostate cancers. While some associations were supported by existing evidence (such as solar radiation and melanoma), further research is necessary to investigate the etiology of novel cancer risk factors.
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