PLOS climate最新文献

{"title":"How accounting for relational power dynamics can help tackle injustices in the climate crisis","authors":"Camilla Seeland, Chris Foulds, David Arkell","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000430","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"30 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141346163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A regime switch error correction model to project sea level rise","authors":"Raymond Fu, Ken Fu","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000369","url":null,"abstract":"Climate scientists employ various techniques to study the sea level rise (SLR), one of which is semi-empirical approach where the historical relationship between the SLR and global temperature is extracted from the data and parameterized for future SLR projections. It has been documented that semi-empirical models tend to have large variations in the projections depending on the data and methodologies. This study examines the statistical properties of the data used to construct the semi-empirical models and propose a new specification as a regime switch error correction model. We show that the proposed model has sound statistical foundation and good performance. The out-of-sample model projection of cumulative SLR from 2001–2020 is within 10% of the actual SLR. The model projects that in 21st century, the average and the 5%-95% range (in parenthesis) cumulative sea level rise will be 0.28m (0.20–0.36m), 0.41m (0.33–0.48m), or 0.68m (0.60–0.76m), respectively, under the SSP1-2.6/2-4.5/5-8.5 scenarios. These projections are aligned with IPCC AR5 while lower than IPCC AR6. They are also within the range of the projections in recent studies.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"103 44","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141361599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The importance of place in climate action","authors":"Candice Howarth, Jamie Brogan, Sarah Bryant, Brendan Curran, Amelia Duncan, Sam Fankhauser, Andy Gouldson, M. Lane, Kathryn Lock, Alice Owen, Dan van der Horst","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000425","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"112 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141362886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coming in from the cold: Addressing the challenges experienced by women conducting remote polar fieldwork","authors":"Maria Dance, R. Duncan, Marjolein Gevers, Eleanor Maedhbh Honan, Elaine Runge, Florina Roana Schalamon, D. Walch","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000393","url":null,"abstract":"Remote fieldwork is an important component of polar research across both physical and social sciences. There is increasing recognition that the inherent logistical, physical, psychological, and interpersonal challenges of remote polar fieldwork are not felt equally across the polar research community, with minority groups often disproportionately affected. Although historically lacking diversity, the demographics of polar researchers have shifted, and the way polar research is conducted has been changing in response. However, there are still barriers to equal participation. Removing these barriers would attract scientists from more diverse backgrounds and improve scientific outcomes. We explored the lived experiences of those who identify as women in polar fieldwork through a review of current literature and an anonymous survey, using existing networks to connect with women working in polar research. We synthesised survey responses with regards to topics such as harassment, hygiene, inefficient communication, gendered work expectations and responsibilities to form a holistic understanding of the key fieldwork challenges faced by women. The majority of survey respondents (79%, n = 320) had encountered negative experiences during fieldwork, with the most common and impactful issues relating to field team dynamics and communication, sexism, rest, and weather. Many other issues including fieldwork preparation, work expectations, harassment, and personal space and privacy were also raised by respondents. We identify critical points of action from the survey results and in literature and propose strategies to remove barriers to participation and improve the experiences of women in polar fieldwork. These include individual- and organisational-level strategies for pre, during, and post fieldwork. A diverse polar research community is imperative in order to address the challenges presented by current unprecedented climate change. Though this study focussed on women’s experiences, we seek to advance the discourse on challenges faced by all minorities in polar research.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"40 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141385750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advances in monitoring glaciological processes in Kalallit Nunaat (Greenland) over the past decades","authors":"D. Fahrner, G. Catania, Michael G. Shahin, Dougal D. Hansen, Karina Löffler, Jakob Abermann","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000379","url":null,"abstract":"Greenland’s glaciers have been retreating, thinning and accelerating since the mid-1990s, with the mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) now being the largest contributor to global sea level rise. Monitoring changes in glacier dynamics using in-situ or remote sensing methods has been and remains therefore crucial to improve our understanding of glaciological processes and the response of glaciers to changes in climate. Over the past two decades, significant advances in technology have provided improvements in the way we observe glacier behavior and have helped to reduce uncertainties in future projections. This review focuses on advances in in-situ monitoring of glaciological processes, but also discusses novel methods in satellite remote sensing. We further highlight gaps in observing, measuring and monitoring glaciers in Greenland, which should be addressed in order to improve our understanding of glacier dynamics and to reduce in uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. In addition, we review coordination and inclusivity of science conducted in Greenland and provide suggestion that could foster increased collaboration and co-production.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140658349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The challenges of the increasing institutionalization of climate security","authors":"J. Hardt, Dhanasree Jayaram, Cameron Harrington, Duncan McLaren, N. Simpson, Alistair D. B. Cook, Maria Cecilia Oliveira, Franziskus von Lucke, Julia Maria Trombetta, Marwa Daoudy, Rita Floyd, Chinwe Philomina Oramah, Mely Caballero Anthony, Adrien Estève","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000402","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"12 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140654540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-induced reduction in metabolically suitable habitat for U.S. northeast shelf marine species","authors":"Emily Slesinger, H. du Pontavice, Brad Seibel, Vincent Saba, Josh Kohut, Grace K. Saba","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000357","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. northeast shelf (USNES) has been experiencing rapid ocean warming, which is changing the thermal environment that marine species inhabit. To determine the effect of current and future ocean warming on the distribution of five important USNES fish species (Atlantic cod [Gadus morhua], black sea bass [Centropristis striata], cunner [Tautogolabrus adspersus], spiny dogfish [Squalus acanthias], summer flounder [Paralichthys dentatus]), we applied species-specific physiological parameters from laboratory studies to calculate the Metabolic Index (MI). The MI for each species was calculated across a historical (1972–2019) and contemporary (2010–2019) climatology for each season. Broadly, the oceanic conditions in the winter and spring seasons did not limit metabolically suitable habitat for all five species, while portions of the USNES in the summer and fall seasons were metabolically unsuitable for the cold water species (Atlantic cod, cunner, spiny dogfish). The warmer water species (black sea bass, summer flounder) experienced little metabolically suitable habitat loss, which was restricted to the most southern portion of the distribution. Under a doubling of atmospheric CO2, metabolically suitable habitat is projected to decrease substantially for Atlantic cod, restricting them to the Gulf of Maine. Cunner are projected to experience similar habitat loss as Atlantic cod, with some refugia in the New York Bight, and spiny dogfish may experience habitat loss in the Southern Shelf and portions of Georges Bank. In contrast, black sea bass and summer flounder are projected to experience minimal habitat loss restricted to the southern inshore portion of the USNES. The utility of using MI for co-occurring fish species in the USNES differed, likely driven by species-specific physiology and whether the southern edge of a population occurred within the USNES.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"6 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140654370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon","authors":"Andrea L. Araujo Navas, Mark M. Janko, Fátima L. Benítez, Manuel Narvaez, Luis E. Vasco, P. Kansara, Benjamin Zaitchik, William K. Pan, Carlos F. Mena","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315","url":null,"abstract":"Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador’s Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140683911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Safety awareness and adaptation strategies of Nigerian construction workers in extreme heat conditions","authors":"H. Moda, M. B. Zailani, Ravi Rangarajan, Pauline Hickey, Mu’awiya Abubakar, Joy J. Maina, Yahaya Ibrahim Makarfi","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000380","url":null,"abstract":"The nature of most construction activities exposes workers to health and safety risks associated with extreme hot weather conditions especially within developing countries in the global south. Considering the magnitude of health and safety risks associated with extreme heat exposure and the prevailing safety culture, and attitude among workers that impede adaptation to safe work practices under extreme heat conditions, it is imperative that serious attention is given to workplace climate change impact on construction workers. The current study provides empirical evidence on safety awareness and practices among Nigerian construction workers, those often exposed to extreme hot weather conditions. A structured questionnaire was used to elicit data from 576 respondents using random sampling technique and the data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools. As part of the study outcome, 57.3% of the respondents raised concerns regarding the non-availability of potable water source on sites, which directly impacts their level of fluid intake while working in extreme heat conditions. To improve safety and enhance productivity, construction organisations need to prioritise workers’ safety through the implementation of sustainable adaptive strategies that include the development of early warning systems related to heat stress at work, development of tailored intervention and adaptive measures and enhancement of heat stress awareness among workers. The study provides evidence on the impact of heat stress among construction workers and the need to improve safety awareness and mitigation against climate change driven extreme heat conditions especially among workers in tropical countries.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":" 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140691251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are forest management practices to improve carbon balance compatible with maintaining bird diversity under climate change? A case study in Eastern North America","authors":"Guillemette Labadie, Philippe Cadieux, L. Moreau, Fidele Bognounou, É. Thiffault, Dominic Cyr, Yan Boulanger, Diana Stralberg, Pierre Grondin, Junior A. Tremblay","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000293","url":null,"abstract":"The combination of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance significantly impacts forest bird assemblages. Assessing the cumulative effects of forest management and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage and provisioning of wood products is key to informing forest management and conservation decision making. Specifically, we projected changes in forest composition and structure according to various forest management strategies under a changing climate using LANDIS-II for two case study areas of Quebec (Canada): a hemiboreal (Hereford Forest) and a boreal (Montmorency Forest) area. Then, we assessed projected bird assemblage changes, as well as sensitive and at-risk species. As part of an integrated assessment, we evaluated the best possible management measures aimed at preserving avian diversity and compared them with optimal options for mitigation of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Forest management and climate change were projected to lead to significant changes in bird assemblages in both types of forest through changes in forest composition. We projected an increase in deciduous vegetation which favored species associated with mixed and deciduous stands to the detriment of species associated with older, coniferous forests. Changes were more pronounced in Hereford Forest than Montmorency Forest. In addition, Hereford’s bird assemblages were mainly affected by climate change, while those in Montmorency Forest were more impacted by forest management. We estimated that 25% of Hereford and 6% of Montmorency species will be sensitive to climate change, with projected abundance changes (positive or negative) exceeding 25%. According to the simulations, a decrease in the level of forest harvesting could benefit bird conservation and contribute to reduction of carbon emissions in the boreal forest area. Conversely, the hemiboreal forest area require trade-offs, as mitigation of carbon emissions is favored by more intensive forest management that stimulates the growth and carbon sequestration of otherwise stagnant stands.","PeriodicalId":74463,"journal":{"name":"PLOS climate","volume":"50 s20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140700362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}