Beth Killen, Jenny A. Fisher, Christopher S. Hansen, Paul B. Krummel, Martin K. Vollmer and Scott H. Kable
{"title":"Atmospheric fates and global warming potential of HFO-1234ze(E) and its degradation product trifluoroacetaldehyde (CF3CHO)","authors":"Beth Killen, Jenny A. Fisher, Christopher S. Hansen, Paul B. Krummel, Martin K. Vollmer and Scott H. Kable","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00034G","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00034G","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) are replacing high-GWP hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) across multiple applications including foam blowing, refrigeration, and aerosols, but their atmospheric degradation and climate consequences remain uncertain. We use the GEOS-Chem 3-D chemical transport model, supported by AtChem2 box-model simulations, to develop a complete representation of the atmospheric chemistry and fate of HFO-1234ze(E) and its key intermediate product, trifluoroacetaldehyde (CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO). We focus on HFO-1234ze(E) as it is the dominant isomer in commercial use. The model includes newly measured CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO photolysis quantum yields to form fluoroform (HFC-23), the recently identified chemical pathways of HFO-1234ze(E) ozonolysis and CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO reversible reaction with HO<small><sub>2</sub></small>, and explicit wet and dry deposition parameterisations. Using observationally constrained global HFO-1234ze(E) emissions of 15 Gg year<small><sup>−1</sup></small>, simulated HFO-1234ze(E) surface mixing ratios agree well with 2020–2024 observations at 8 Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network sites. We find that 99.6% of HFO-1234ze(E) is removed by reaction with OH, with the remaining 0.4% lost to ozonolysis. Sensitivity tests for effective Henry's law constants <img> spanning 10–10<small><sup>6</sup></small> M atm<small><sup>−1</sup></small> show sensitivity of CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO fate to <img> up to 10<small><sup>4</sup></small> M atm<small><sup>−1</sup></small> and saturation at higher <img>. Using an upper bound of 10<small><sup>5</sup></small> M atm<small><sup>−1</sup></small>, deposition accounts for ≈51% of total CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO loss in GEOS-Chem (20% dry, 31% wet), with photolysis contributing ≈33% and OH reaction ≈15%. The reversible reaction with HO<small><sub>2</sub></small> contributes around 1% to net CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO loss due to rapid conversion of the reaction products back to reactants. We calculate a total (direct + indirect) GWP<small><sub>100</sub></small> for HFO-1234ze(E) of 11.4<small><sup>+3.1</sup></small><small><sub>−1.9</sub></small>, with CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO photolysis to HFC-23 contributing 8.2<small><sup>+3.1</sup></small><small><sub>−1.9</sub></small>. We also estimate a maximum potential formation of 4.5 Gg year<small><sup>−1</sup></small> of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) under current emissions assuming complete conversion of wet-deposited CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO from HFO-1234ze(E), suggesting a potential unrecognised TFA source from all CF<small><sub>3</sub></small>CHO sources.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 913-932"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00034g?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A conceptual framework for the influence of water activity parameterization on hygroscopic growth and cloud droplet activation in aerosols containing strong nonionic surfactants","authors":"Alison Bain","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00035E","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00035E","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Discrepancies between observations of cloud droplet number concentrations during field studies and those predicted from Köhler theory suggest that surface-active organics may impact hygroscopic growth. The surface-active material that partitions to the droplet–air interface can reduce the surface tension, lowering the barrier to cloud droplet activation. However, when the surface-active material partitions to the interface, it also increases the droplet water activity, having the opposite effect on cloud droplet activation. Although much effort has been focused on accurately describing the size- and composition-dependent surface tension, the influence of surface-active organics on water activity has received far less attention. Here, the impact of the description of water activity during hygroscopic growth and eventual cloud droplet activation is investigated. In AIOMFAC (Aerosol Inorganic–Organic Mixtures Functional groups Activity Coefficients), two subgroup descriptions (ether–alkyl and oxyethylene) of the strong nonionic surfactants Triton X-100 and Tween20 and their mixtures with NaCl are used to calculate water activity for Köhler calculations. Although for aerosols with low and medium organic content, the two AIOMFAC descriptions of the surfactants provide equivalent estimates of the critical supersaturation and radius, under high surfactant conditions, the oxyethylene subgroup description predicts a lower critical supersaturation than the ether–alkyl subgroup description. Under high surfactant conditions, the oxyethylene subgroup also provides better agreement with available literature data for critical supersaturation.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 933-942"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00035e?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yushan Li, Song Hong, Huan Yang, Qian Wu, Dan Wang, Yao Tang, Zhongyang Wang, Aiming Liu, Shengbiao Wu, Bin Chen and Chao He
{"title":"A study on the nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentrations in Nanjing, China: based on GAM and DLNM models","authors":"Yushan Li, Song Hong, Huan Yang, Qian Wu, Dan Wang, Yao Tang, Zhongyang Wang, Aiming Liu, Shengbiao Wu, Bin Chen and Chao He","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00049E","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00049E","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Fine particulate matter (PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small>), as the predominant atmospheric pollutant in China, poses a serious threat to public health and socioeconomic development. Meteorological factors play a critical role in shaping its occurrence and evolution. This study analyzes data from Nanjing City between 2015 and 2023, employing trend analysis, Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> and the impact of meteorological variables. The results show that PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> concentrations in the city declined overall from 2015 to 2023, at an average rate of −3.36 µg (m<small><sup>3</sup></small> per year), exhibiting distinct phased characteristics; PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> concentrations were higher in winter than in summer, lower in the central urban area, and higher in industrially developed regions. The GAM model indicates that 2 m temperature (T2M) and boundary layer height (BLH) are the primary driving factors, and the interaction between 2 m temperature–10 m wind speed (T2M–FG10) and BLH–FG10 exerts a strong regulatory effect on pollutant dispersion; when total precipitation (PRE) lies within the range of 0.008–0.013 m and FG10 within the range of 1.0–1.8 m s<small><sup>−1</sup></small>, their interaction has a positive effect on PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> concentrations. The results of DLNM show that the lag and cumulative effects of meteorological factors on PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> are significant. The lag effect of 0–3 days is the most prominent, and the precipitation removal effect is the strongest in 0–7 days. When T2M increased, the lag effect changed from negative to positive; while BLH increased, the negative lag effect increased. This study reveals the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological factors on PM<small><sub>2.5</sub></small> and provides a scientific basis for the precise management of air pollutants in Nanjing.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 943-961"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00049e?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa, Lei Hu, Colin Harkins, Brian C. McDonald, Scot M. Miller, Youmi Oh, Lori Bruhwiler, Colm Sweeney and Arlyn Andrews
{"title":"Reduced U.S. methane emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa, Lei Hu, Colin Harkins, Brian C. McDonald, Scot M. Miller, Youmi Oh, Lori Bruhwiler, Colm Sweeney and Arlyn Andrews","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00004E","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00004E","url":null,"abstract":"<p >The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted normal human activities worldwide, and mobility reductions resulted in reduced levels of air pollutants and greenhouse gases emissions. Here, we examine the impact of these disruptions on a potent greenhouse gas, methane (CH<small><sub>4</sub></small>), over the U.S. In this study, we quantified CH<small><sub>4</sub></small> emissions from the contiguous U.S. between 2019 and 2021 by analyzing inverse modeling results derived from atmospheric measurements made at 35 sites across the country. Our estimates indicate emission reductions of −2.5 (±0.43) Tg year<small><sup>−1</sup></small> CH<small><sub>4</sub></small> in 2020 and −2.9 (±1.63) Tg year<small><sup>−1</sup></small> in 2021, relative to 2019. The respective percentage change was a −4.3 (−5.1 to −3.5) % reduction in 2020 and −4.8 (−8.3 to −0.7) % in 2021, relative to 2019. Combining with process-based inventory emission datasets, we found that this reduction was primarily due to decreased fossil fuel and agricultural emissions; however, record-breaking forest fires resulted in an increase of 0.4 (0.1 to 0.8) Tg year<small><sup>−1</sup></small> in 2020–2019, equal to a 20 (3 to 46) % increase in CH<small><sub>4</sub></small> emissions from the western U.S.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 831-840"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00004e?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Atmospheric aerosol nucleation: a methodological review of theoretical calculations and molecular simulation","authors":"Yongjian Lian, Xurong Bai, Ruoying Yuan, Tingyu Wei, Hongjun Mao, Jianfei Peng and Shuai Jiang","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00026F","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00026F","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Atmospheric aerosols play a crucial role in large-scale precipitation, global climate change, and Earth's radiative balance, with new particle formation (NPF) constituting a major source of aerosol particles. NPF is a gas-to-particle phase transition process that involves both the formation of critical clusters—commonly referred to as nucleation—and the subsequent growth of these clusters into larger particles. Theoretical and computational approaches, including quantum chemistry calculations and molecular dynamics simulations, enable investigations of NPF at the microscopic molecular level and provide fundamental insights into the mechanisms governing cluster formation. When combined with cluster dynamics models, these methods further allow quantitative assessments of the atmospheric relevance of proposed nucleation mechanisms. In recent years, machine learning techniques have also emerged as powerful tools for accelerating and optimizing these workflows. In this review, we summarize recent theoretical and computational studies on aerosol nucleation mechanisms from the perspective of molecular clusters. Particular emphasis is placed on classical and representative applications of theoretical methods in nucleation research, including configurational sampling, thermodynamics, and cluster dynamics. We aim for this review to provide a comprehensive overview of the current progress in theoretical and computational nucleation studies, while also highlighting emerging challenges and future research directions in the field.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 810-830"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00026f?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Youssef Harb, Charbel Anthony El Hachem, Amale Mcheik, Ghada El Zakhem Naous and Nathalie Hayeck
{"title":"The global atmospheric cycle of forever chemicals: a review of PFAS distribution, wet deposition, and atmospheric fate","authors":"Youssef Harb, Charbel Anthony El Hachem, Amale Mcheik, Ghada El Zakhem Naous and Nathalie Hayeck","doi":"10.1039/D5EA00130G","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D5EA00130G","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent, emerging environmental contaminants with diverse chemical properties and widespread industrial and consumer uses. They are used as key components in products like surfactants, lubricants, fire-fighting foams, non-stick cookware, and water-repellent coatings. Additionally, their volatility and stability enable global transport, often reaching pristine environments across various regions. This review thoroughly examines the global literature on atmospheric PFAS, focusing on their distribution in polar, midlatitude, and tropical areas, the role and mechanisms of wet deposition in their atmospheric behavior, and their chemical transformation and phase partitioning in the atmosphere. While midlatitude industrial and consumer activities are primary sources, PFAS are transported globally. Moreover, wet deposition acts as a sink for atmospheric PFAS, with snow and sea spray especially effective at scavenging long-chain PFAS. Although secondary emissions through re-volatilization could occur, the main factors governing the fate of atmospheric PFAS are precursor transformations and phase partitioning. Volatile PFAS degrade in the atmosphere into more persistent and less volatile forms <em>via</em> oxidative and photochemical processes. The partitioning of PFAS between gas and particulate phases depends on functionalization and chain length, with some studies also emphasizing the role of meteorological conditions. Although this review covers a broad range of regions and environments, the existing literature remains limited, especially in areas such as the Antarctic Peninsula, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, where data gaps persist. Future research should focus on monitoring PFAS levels in these underrepresented regions and on enhancing the fundamental and mechanistic understanding of PFAS transformation pathways. Meanwhile, policymakers should prioritize implementing stricter emission controls, reforming regulations on legacy and precursor PFAS, and harmonizing PFAS regulations worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 754-785"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d5ea00130g?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lidia Kristia Alfanti, Amber May Yeoman, Andrew Robert Rickard, David Shaw, Martyn William Ward, Sarah Julia Moller and Alastair Charles Lewis
{"title":"Regulation and reformulation: how the EU Paints Directive shaped volatile organic compound emissions from UK decorative paints","authors":"Lidia Kristia Alfanti, Amber May Yeoman, Andrew Robert Rickard, David Shaw, Martyn William Ward, Sarah Julia Moller and Alastair Charles Lewis","doi":"10.1039/D5EA00134J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D5EA00134J","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Decorative paints have undergone substantial solvent reformulation in response to air quality regulatory pressure and advances in materials science, but they remain an important contributor to national VOC emissions. Paint-derived VOCs currently represent 9.6% of total United Kingdom VOC emissions. The changes in UK emissions from decorative paints (1990–2024) have been quantified using a combination of national emissions inventory data, laboratory analysis using headspace GC/MS, and atmospheric modelling. A major decline in total mass of VOC emissions from paints followed the implementation of the EU Paints Directive, with per capita emissions falling by approximately 60% between 2004 and 2019 from 0.532 kg per person per year to 0.210 kg per person per year. The reduction in mass of paint VOC emissions coincided with a transition away from hydrocarbon solvents, notably alkanes such as decane, and other alkane isomers in the C<small><sub>8</sub></small>–C<small><sub>12</sub></small> range. Paints in 2024 contain virtually no alkane content, instead comprising a wide range of chemical functionalities, including alcohols, ketones, esters, and siloxanes. The VOC speciation in 2024 varied significantly by manufacturer, but rather little across manufacturers' product range for different end-uses. Reformulated 2024 paints exhibited substantially lower SOA formation potential, approximately six times lower than older alkane-based paint formulations and had reduced total hydroxyl radical reactivity. Atmospheric model simulations comparing decane (reflective of 1990 paints) and <em>t</em>-butanol (reflecting 2024 paints) indicated that modern VOC emission mixtures likely degrade more slowly and generate less formaldehyde as a by-product. This study provides an updated VOC speciation for paints, suitable for use in emissions inventories and air pollution assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 883-897"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d5ea00134j?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yiqi Zhao, Zhaojin An, Yuyang Li, Rujing Yin, Dandan Li, Dongbin Wang, Xuan Zheng, Jun Zheng, Hong He, Jincai Zhao, Kebin He, Douglas R. Worsnop and Jingkun Jiang
{"title":"Optimizing Vocus proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry for detecting trace atmospheric amines","authors":"Yiqi Zhao, Zhaojin An, Yuyang Li, Rujing Yin, Dandan Li, Dongbin Wang, Xuan Zheng, Jun Zheng, Hong He, Jincai Zhao, Kebin He, Douglas R. Worsnop and Jingkun Jiang","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00023A","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00023A","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Amines, as important alkaline gases in the atmosphere besides ammonia, profoundly influence air quality, climate and human health through various atmospheric processes. Besides well-studied alkylamines, emerging amines (<em>e.g.</em>, monoethanolamine (MEA), piperazine (PZ), 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP)) from the rapidly expanding amine-based carbon capture facilities may be emitted into the atmosphere, posing new demands for their measurement. Vocus Proton-Transfer-Reaction Mass Spectrometry (Vocus-PTR) is an effective technique for detecting volatile organic compounds (VOCs), but its capability to measure a broader variety of trace-level amines remains to be explored. In this study, we optimized the focusing ion-molecule reactor condition of Vocus-PTR to improve the chemical ionization efficiency and ion transmission efficiency of amine detection. The optimized Vocus-PTR achieved good performance for detecting both atmospheric amines and VOCs, with limits of detection (LODs) for amines (0.16–0.55 pptv) lower than those for VOCs (9.34–38.79 pptv). The observed shift in the reduced electric field strength (from ∼147 to 107–117 Td) indicates an increased abundance of water–cluster reagent ions in the reactor, enhancing the sensitivity and selectivity for amine detection. The optimized instrument was deployed in urban Beijing. C<small><sub>2–6</sub></small>-alkylamines, C<small><sub>1–6</sub></small>-amides and several emerging amines were identified and quantified, showing characteristic diurnal variations.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 841-852"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00023a?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yong-Sik Ham, Hyon-Su Ri, Kyong-Bok Sonu, Sang-Il Jong and Un-Sim Paek
{"title":"Machine learning-based 1 year-lead summer precipitation prediction over the DPRK using regionally optimized spatial-contrast indices","authors":"Yong-Sik Ham, Hyon-Su Ri, Kyong-Bok Sonu, Sang-Il Jong and Un-Sim Paek","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00029K","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00029K","url":null,"abstract":"<p >The northern part of the Korean Peninsula (NPKP) is a region highly dependent on summer monsoon precipitation for water resources and disaster risk management, and reliable one-year-ahead prediction of summer precipitation is pivotal for formulating climate adaptation strategies. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset spanning 75 years (1948–2022) and precipitation data from 37 meteorological stations in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, this study developed regionally optimized spatial-contrast indices to explain the interannual variability of summer precipitation. The results show that the circulation patterns with high concurrent correlation with summer precipitation do not persist into the following year. However, the deepened low-pressure system over inland Eurasia, particularly around Lake Baikal, in the preceding summer (<em>t</em> − 1) exhibits a significant lagged correlation with summer precipitation (<em>t</em>). Based on this physical insight, the study designed spatial-contrast indices that quantify the regional circulation anomaly differences between Siberia and eastern China. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN) trained on these indices achieved an anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of 0.59, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 134.61 mm, and a mean bias error (MBE) of −4.22 mm during the 5-fold cross-validation period (1949–2022), significantly outperforming traditional linear regression models. These findings demonstrate that regionally optimized atmospheric circulation indices provide robust predictive skill for long-lead precipitation forecasting in data-scarce regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 867-882"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00029k?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ly Sy Phu Nguyen, Le Quoc Hau, Vo Truong Gia Han, Tran Hoang Minh, Vo Thi Tam Minh, Tran Anh Ngan and To Thị Hien
{"title":"Unveiling the first two-year dataset on the atmospheric deposition of heavy metals in a southern Vietnam megacity: potential driving factors and ecological risk assessment","authors":"Ly Sy Phu Nguyen, Le Quoc Hau, Vo Truong Gia Han, Tran Hoang Minh, Vo Thi Tam Minh, Tran Anh Ngan and To Thị Hien","doi":"10.1039/D6EA00039H","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1039/D6EA00039H","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Characterizing atmospheric deposition of heavy metals (HMs) through bulk sampling provides critical insights into environmental pollution patterns in fast-developing urban centers. Despite being a key economic hub in Southeast Asia (SEA), Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) has received comparatively limited scientific attention regarding atmospheric deposition of HMs. This study reports the first 2 year (2023–2024) observation data of atmospheric deposition of HMs in HCMC. The volume-weighted mean (VWM) concentrations and deposition fluxes exhibit the same decreasing order: Zn (32.9 µg L<small><sup>−1</sup></small>; 59 885 µg m<small><sup>−2</sup></small> year<small><sup>−1</sup></small>) > Mn (22.0; 40 151) > Cu (2.16; 3872) > Pb (1.52; 2839) > Ni (0.70; 1271) > Cr (0.42; 765.7) > V (0.19; 349.4) > As (0.09; 173.7). Bulk HM deposition fluxes increase during the rainy season as a result of enhanced rainfall, whereas the concentrations are lower (rainy < dry season), likely due to dilution effects. Seasonal variability in HM deposition is strongly modulated by the East Asian monsoon through its combined effects on air-mass transport pathways and rainfall-driven scavenging. Enrichment factor (EF) assessments, combined with principal component analysis (PCA), identified four major potential contributing factors on rainwater characteristics at HCMC: a mixture of non-combustion traffic sources and industrial sources, combustion sources, crustal sources, and meteorological influences. Ecological risk assessments indicated a low risk for most HMs (<em>E</em><small><sub><em>i</em></sub></small> < 30), in which Pb exhibits a high risk, accounting for 60% of the total potential ecological risk, implicating industrial emissions as the dominant contributor. This work provides the first quantitative assessment of atmospheric HM deposition in SEA, improving understanding of toxic metal inputs and supporting environmental management in rapidly urbanizing areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":72942,"journal":{"name":"Environmental science: atmospheres","volume":" 6","pages":" 898-912"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2026/ea/d6ea00039h?page=search","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}