中国疾病预防控制中心周报最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Longitudinal Trajectories of Growth and Development in HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children from a Long-Term Birth Cohort - 8 Regions, 3 PLADs, China, 2017-2024. 长期出生队列中hiv暴露未感染儿童生长发育的纵向轨迹——8个地区,3个PLADs,中国,2017-2024。
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.043
Xinwei Li, Yanli Cao, Jiahan Zou, Chenxi Zhu, Xiaoyan Wang, Ailing Wang, Qian Wang
{"title":"Longitudinal Trajectories of Growth and Development in HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children from a Long-Term Birth Cohort - 8 Regions, 3 PLADs, China, 2017-2024.","authors":"Xinwei Li, Yanli Cao, Jiahan Zou, Chenxi Zhu, Xiaoyan Wang, Ailing Wang, Qian Wang","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.043","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study examined growth and development trajectories in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) exposed children aged 0-3 years, identified key influencing factors, and generated evidence to support early developmental promotion in this population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This prospective cohort study enrolled pregnant women who delivered between January 2017 and June 2021 and followed their infants until 3 years of age. Participants were drawn from a mother-to-child HIV transmission cohort established across Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Chi-square tests were used to compare differences between groups, and generalized estimating equations (GEE) were applied to identify factors influencing growth and nutritional outcomes in HIV-exposed children.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The cohort comprised 1,227 mother-child pairs: 411 in the exposed group (HIV-infected mothers) and 816 in the control group (non-HIV-infected mothers). The malnutrition rate among HIV-exposed children in the study regions was 12.00%. Relative to the control group, HIV-exposed children demonstrated significantly lower height and weight gains and a higher prevalence of malnutrition (<i>P</i><0.05). GEE analysis identified a household per capita monthly income exceeding 3,000 yuan as a protective factor against malnutrition [adjusted odds ratio (a<i>OR</i>)=0.924, 95% confidence interval (<i>CI</i>): 0.877, 0.974], while a maternal history of stillbirth (a<i>OR</i>=1.055, 95% <i>CI</i>: 1.008, 1.104) and neonatal low birth weight (a<i>OR</i>=1.377, 95% <i>CI</i>: 1.267, 1.497) were independent risk factors across all follow-up periods. Female sex was also associated with a modestly elevated risk of malnutrition compared with male sex (a<i>OR</i>=1.048, 95% <i>CI</i>: 1.017, 1.079).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>HIV-exposed children in the study regions demonstrated modestly poorer overall growth and development compared with non-exposed peers. These findings underscore the importance of targeted nutritional interventions, early developmental surveillance, and timely correction of growth abnormalities in this vulnerable population.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 10","pages":"268-275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056542/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Field Investigation of Two Urban Cases of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome - Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China, 2025. 2025年江苏省南京市2例发热伴血小板减少综合征现场调查
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.040
Xueer Wu, Feiyan Liu, Hengxue Wang, Tao Ma, Shougang Zhang, Min He, Zheng He, Bingdong Song, Xuemin Chen, Songning Ding, Jie Ding
{"title":"Field Investigation of Two Urban Cases of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome - Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China, 2025.","authors":"Xueer Wu, Feiyan Liu, Hengxue Wang, Tao Ma, Shougang Zhang, Min He, Zheng He, Bingdong Song, Xuemin Chen, Songning Ding, Jie Ding","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.040","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>What is already known about this topic?: </strong>Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a highly fatal tick-borne viral disease caused by <i>Dabie bandavirus</i> (DBV), traditionally endemic in rural agricultural and tea plantation areas. Reported cases of SFTS linked to tick bites are sparse in China's core urban areas.</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?: </strong>This report documents two SFTS cases infected in well-afforested residential zones in the urban areas of Nanjing. Emergency tick monitoring identified DBV-positive ticks in related green spaces, suggesting the sporadic presence of natural foci in specific urban environments.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?: </strong>This report provides initial evidence of DBV transmission in urban areas with suitable tick habitats, which increases the risk of infection in densely populated and well-afforested urban settings. This report highlights the need for clinicians to recognize SFTS cases without a clear history of agricultural or rural exposure. To mitigate urban SFTS transmission risk, a multipronged strategy is required that encompasses strengthened surveillance, integrated vector control, public education, and clinical vigilance, including early recognition and optimized referral pathways.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 9","pages":"251-256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056506/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparative Transcriptome Analysis of Bartonella Species from Diverse Hosts Reveals Evolutionary Insights - Global, 2023-2025. 来自不同宿主的巴尔通体物种的比较转录组分析揭示了进化的见解-全球,2023-2025。
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.039
Min Chen, Na Han, Wen Zhang, Yujun Qiang, Qiyong Liu, Dongmei Li
{"title":"Comparative Transcriptome Analysis of <i>Bartonella</i> Species from Diverse Hosts Reveals Evolutionary Insights - Global, 2023-2025.","authors":"Min Chen, Na Han, Wen Zhang, Yujun Qiang, Qiyong Liu, Dongmei Li","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.039","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>What is already known about this topic?: </strong>Transcriptomic approaches have been used in phylogenetic studies of eukaryotes, yet their application to prokaryotic organisms remains limited. To date, research on species differentiation and phylogenetic relationships within <i>Bartonella</i> spp. has relied primarily on genomic data, and the taxonomic relationships among species in this genus remain poorly resolved.</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?: </strong>The transcriptome of <i>Bartonella</i> spp. varies based on species and host origins and exhibits systematic differences. Transcriptome-based phylogenetic analysis reveals that strains cluster by species and host origin. This pattern indicates that differentiation by species and genetic evolution of <i>Bartonella</i> is predominantly shaped by the host origin.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?: </strong>Our study confirms that transcriptomics is an effective tool for determining differentiation and evolutionary relationships among <i>Bartonella</i> spp. and demonstrates its potential applicability to studies of other prokaryotic species.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 9","pages":"246-250"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056503/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fatal Human Rabies in an HIV-Infected Migrant Worker with Well-Controlled Viral Load - Zhejiang Province, China, January 2026. 一名感染hiv的外来务工人员的致命狂犬病病毒载量控制良好——中国浙江省,2026年1月。
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.041
Zhiping Long, Miaofen Lou, Xuelian Zhang, Yi Wang, Kaizhi Bai, Zhifeng Pang, Guangming Zhang
{"title":"Fatal Human Rabies in an HIV-Infected Migrant Worker with Well-Controlled Viral Load - Zhejiang Province, China, January 2026.","authors":"Zhiping Long, Miaofen Lou, Xuelian Zhang, Yi Wang, Kaizhi Bai, Zhifeng Pang, Guangming Zhang","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.041","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 9","pages":"257-258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056500/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Genomic Epidemiology of Salmonella enterica Serovar Give Reveals Clonal Expansion and Increasing Prevalence of qnrB19 - China, 2017-2024. 肠道沙门氏菌血清型基因组流行病学研究显示qnrB19克隆扩增和流行率上升
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.037
Bowei Sun, Fenxia Fan, Zhigang Cui, Xiaoli Du, Jieren Wang, Haijian Zhou, Biao Kan, Meiying Yan
{"title":"Genomic Epidemiology of <i>Salmonella enterica</i> Serovar Give Reveals Clonal Expansion and Increasing Prevalence of <i>qnrB19</i> - China, 2017-2024.","authors":"Bowei Sun, Fenxia Fan, Zhigang Cui, Xiaoli Du, Jieren Wang, Haijian Zhou, Biao Kan, Meiying Yan","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 9","pages":"229-237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056507/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Genomic Characterization of Clostridium botulinum Isolates from Soil and Soybean Samples in High-Incidence Regions - Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai PLADs, China, 2024. 新疆、内蒙古、青海土壤和大豆中肉毒梭菌分离株的基因组特征研究,中国,2024。
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.038
Yongsi Zhan, Xin Ma, Xuebin Guo, Meng Zhang, Chunxia Cui, Weiwei Li, Shaofei Yan, Shenghui Cui, Xingfen Yang, Yunchang Guo
{"title":"Genomic Characterization of <i>Clostridium botulinum</i> Isolates from Soil and Soybean Samples in High-Incidence Regions - Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai PLADs, China, 2024.","authors":"Yongsi Zhan, Xin Ma, Xuebin Guo, Meng Zhang, Chunxia Cui, Weiwei Li, Shaofei Yan, Shenghui Cui, Xingfen Yang, Yunchang Guo","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>What is already known about this topic?: </strong>Foodborne botulism is prevalent in northwestern China, linked to traditional homemade foods. Recently, some cases have been linked to commercial vacuum-packaged ready-to-eat meat products. Soil is a potential contamination source, yet genomic information on environmental isolates from high-incidence regions remains scarce.</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?: </strong>This study presents the first genomic characterization of 23 <i>C. botulinum</i> isolates obtained from soil and soybean samples in Northwest China. Four botulinum neurotoxin subtypes, A5(B3), B2, B3, and B4, were identified, each demonstrating notable geographic and metabolic diversity. Subtype-specific genomic adaptations, transposase insertions, and an incomplete prophage carrying <i>bont</i> in one isolate were observed, suggesting historical horizontal gene transfer.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?: </strong>Soils in high-incidence regions may act as persistent reservoirs of <i>C. botulinum</i>, emphasizing the need for targeted evidence-based public health interventions. Strengthening hygiene and sanitation practices during food processing, along with enhanced surveillance of both traditional and commercial food products, are essential to prevent future foodborne botulism outbreaks in endemic regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 9","pages":"238-245"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056501/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Retrospective Analysis of the Molecular Links Among Clustered Cases of Acinetobacter baumannii Nosocomial Infections Occurring in Different Years within the ICU - Jiangsu Province, China, 2016-2021. 2016-2021年江苏省ICU不同年份鲍曼不动杆菌医院感染聚集性病例分子链的回顾性分析
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.034
Xiaosong Wu, Jingjing Fan, Liye Huang, Yiping Mao, Yang Wang, Yiming Shen, Huimin Qian, Lumei Wang, Xiaobin Wang, Tingting Ni, Li Liang, Shanshan Ye, Chenxue Zhu, Jun Bi, Jianming Wang, Yan Xu
{"title":"Retrospective Analysis of the Molecular Links Among Clustered Cases of <i>Acinetobacter baumannii</i> Nosocomial Infections Occurring in Different Years within the ICU - Jiangsu Province, China, 2016-2021.","authors":"Xiaosong Wu, Jingjing Fan, Liye Huang, Yiping Mao, Yang Wang, Yiming Shen, Huimin Qian, Lumei Wang, Xiaobin Wang, Tingting Ni, Li Liang, Shanshan Ye, Chenxue Zhu, Jun Bi, Jianming Wang, Yan Xu","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.034","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>What is already known about this topic?: </strong>Carbapenem-resistant <i>Acinetobacter baumannii</i> (CRAB) is a well-established cause of difficult-to-treat nosocomial infections, particularly in intensive care units (ICUs). This strain is known for its ability to persist in hospital environments, leading to outbreaks.</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?: </strong>This retrospective study analyzed five separate CRAB nosocomial infection clusters that occurred in 2016, 2019, and 2021. This revealed the molecular epidemiological links between cases and environmental samples across different years, suggesting the potential for ongoing environmental transmission. Following intensive terminal disinfection, no homologous pathogens have been detected since 2021.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?: </strong>The potential risk of environmental transmission suggests that the current bedside isolation strategies may have deficiencies. Given that the prevailing ICU multibedroom configuration remains unchanged, additional effective disinfection methods must be developed urgently. These techniques should specifically target high-touch irregular surfaces to disrupt persistent CRAB transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 8","pages":"209-215"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056504/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Current Status of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Transmission in Mammals. 2.3.4.4b进化支H5N1高致病性禽流感病毒在哺乳动物中的传播现状
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.027
Chuanxiu Li, Xinru Lyu, Xiang Li, Zhongwei Jia, Hongliang Chai
{"title":"Current Status of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Transmission in Mammals.","authors":"Chuanxiu Li, Xinru Lyu, Xiang Li, Zhongwei Jia, Hongliang Chai","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.027","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Since late 2020, clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have expanded globally, infecting wild birds, poultry, and an increasing range of mammals. Sustained transmission has occurred in minks and dairy cattle, accompanied by key polymerase basic 2 (PB2) mutations (e.g., E627K, D701N), signaling mammalian adaptation and heightened zoonotic risk. From 2021 to early 2025, 82 human cases, including fatalities in China and the US, underscored rising public health concerns, although no sustained human-to-human transmission has been detected. This review summarizes the epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and molecular evolution of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 in mammals. Large-scale outbreaks in US dairy cattle and associated human cases highlight significant cross-species risks, while China's high poultry vaccination coverage, rapid culling, and nationwide surveillance demonstrate the value of proactive prevention. These contrasting experiences emphasize the need for targeted surveillance, reinforced biosecurity, accelerated countermeasure development, and global coordination under the One Health framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 8","pages":"222-228"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056499/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrated Risk Matrix and Borda Count Analysis on Importation Risk Assessment of Nipah Virus Infection - China, 1999-2026. 1999-2026年中国尼帕病毒输入风险评估的综合风险矩阵和Borda计数分析
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.035
Weijing Shang, Qiwen Zheng
{"title":"Integrated Risk Matrix and Borda Count Analysis on Importation Risk Assessment of Nipah Virus Infection - China, 1999-2026.","authors":"Weijing Shang, Qiwen Zheng","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.035","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>What is already known about this topic?: </strong>Nipah virus (NiV) is a highly lethal zoonotic pathogen. Its re-emergence in India in early 2026 has heightened global public health concerns.</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?: </strong>This study systematically assessed the risk of NiV importation into China from five affected countries. India and Bangladesh posed moderate importation risks, whereas Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore presented low risks.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?: </strong>The findings emphasize that coupling existing defenses with sustained multi-source surveillance and dynamic risk modeling is essential to mitigate risks of stochastic NiV entry.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 8","pages":"201-208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056502/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Open-Source Data Driven Hybrid Modeling System for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early Warning. 基于开源数据驱动的传染病监测与预警混合建模系统。
IF 2.9
中国疾病预防控制中心周报 Pub Date : 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2026.036
Jianyi Zhang, Haoliang Cui, Yiwen Xing, Zekun Wang, Wenkai Luo, Chaozhuo Wei, Zhongwei Jia
{"title":"An Open-Source Data Driven Hybrid Modeling System for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early Warning.","authors":"Jianyi Zhang, Haoliang Cui, Yiwen Xing, Zekun Wang, Wenkai Luo, Chaozhuo Wei, Zhongwei Jia","doi":"10.46234/ccdcw2026.036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2026.036","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>The increasing trend of globalization has led to a heightened risk of imported epidemics; however, existing surveillance systems remain fragmented and reliant on laboratory confirmation. We developed an open-source data-driven hybrid modeling system to provide earlier and more reliable alerts, designed to complement China's multipoint trigger early-warning framework.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This system integrates heterogeneous signals, including official epidemiology, digital traces, mobility, meteorology, and pathogen genomics, using semantic harmonization and a hybrid analytic stack. Seasonality-adjusted baselines with anomaly detection, mobility- and climate-aware SEIR models, and short-horizon learners generated calibrated early-warning scores. Thresholds were constrained by positive predictive value. Pilot studies were conducted for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Yantai and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) in Shandong and Henan, with tuberculosis indicators embedded for programmatic use.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Across deployments, the system achieved 83.3% sensitivity and 76.9% positive predictive value, providing a median lead time of 9.3 days before official confirmation. Forecasting accuracy reached 92.1% for COVID-19 in Yantai, 90.3% for SFTSV in Shandong, and 89.8% for SFTSV in Henan. Early warnings were aligned with subsequent confirmations and supported targeted screening and resource allocation.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>An open-source data-driven hybrid modeling system can deliver calibrated and timely alerts across diverse pathogens. By broadening inputs, enabling cross-agency linkage, and offering operator-oriented dashboards, it serves as a practical complement to China's national early-warning system and has the potential for scaling out with One Health inputs.</p>","PeriodicalId":69039,"journal":{"name":"中国疾病预防控制中心周报","volume":"8 8","pages":"216-221"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056498/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147647723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信
小红书