International Journal of Biometeorology最新文献

{"title":"Can time-series of Landsat data be used to map the onset of growth at 78°N (central Svalbard)?","authors":"Laura Stendardi,&nbsp;Giovanni Argenti,&nbsp;Luigi Ranghetti,&nbsp;Stein Rune Karlsen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03276-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03276-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mapping vegetation phenology in the high Arctic is critical for understanding ecosystem responses to rapid warming, but persistent cloud cover and low solar angles pose substantial challenges for optical satellite monitoring. We evaluated whether Landsat 8 can successfully map the start of growing season (SOS) at 78°N in Svalbard by developing spectral-based cloud detection algorithms tailored to Arctic conditions. From 17 images during the 2014 growing season, we generated cloud-free NDVI time series and extracted SOS dates at 30-m resolution across Adventdalen (Advent Valley). Validation against six field plots equipped with phenocameras demonstrated strong agreement (R² = 0.884, RMSE = 4.1 days, NSE = 0.869). The resulting SOS map revealed systematic spatial patterns ranging from late May to early August, with elevation explaining 6.6% of variance as the strongest single predictor. Combined topographic models (elevation, slope, distance from sea) explained 14.6% of variance, indicating that unmeasured factors particularly aspect, snow distribution, and vegetation composition exert dominant controls on phenological timing. These results confirm the viability of Landsat-based phenology mapping in the high Arctic. Critically, by establishing a validated processing framework this study provides the methodological foundation for application to the historical Landsat archive (Landsat 4/5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+), subject to cross-sensor radiometric calibration. This opens unprecedented opportunities for reconstructing 30-m resolution phenological time series extending back to 1984, enabling quantification of four decades of vegetation responses to Arctic warming in regions experiencing some of Earth’s most rapid climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13391796/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148547137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validity and field applicability of the environmental stress index (ESI) for heat stress assessment in outdoor workers of arid/semi-arid climates","authors":"Roghayeh Akbari,&nbsp;Mehdi Asghari,&nbsp;Mohamad Amrolahi,&nbsp;Abolfazl Hossein Nataj,&nbsp;Seyed Ehsan Samaei","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03282-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03282-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is the benchmark for occupational heat-stress assessment, yet its accuracy can be constrained by variability in humidity, air movement, and solar load. The Environmental Stress Index (ESI), derived from routinely available meteorological variables, has been proposed as a low-cost field surrogate. This study evaluated the agreement and physiological relevance of ESI versus WBGT among outdoor workers across arid and semi-arid climates in Iran. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 150 sand-and-gravel mine workers in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Environmental and physiological data were collected at different times. The WBGT (based on ISO 7243) and ESI (based on ambient parameters) were calculated. Between-climate differences were analyzed using t-test or Mann–Whitney U; agreement was assessed by ICC; and associations with meteorological and physiological variables were evaluated using GEE (α = 0.05). In the semi-arid site, the values of both WBGT and ESI were higher during the warmer hours (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Regression analyses revealed statistically significant relationships between the thermal indices and most environmental parameters in both climates (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). The agreement between WBGT and ESI was high (ICC_arid:0.98, ICC_semi−arid:0.97) with statistically significant correlations in both climates (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). In the arid site, both WBGT and ESI showed significant positive correlations with physiological responses, whereas in the semi-arid site, only the ESI index exhibited significant correlations with physiological responses (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). Overall, ESI demonstrated performance equivalent to WBGT in the arid site and was suitable for field screening applications. ESI shows strong agreement with WBGT and meaningful physiological validity in arid sites, making it a viable low-cost screening tool when WBGT devices are unavailable. It is recommended that industries in arid regions adopt ESI for daily heat-stress monitoring.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148547116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustained control of PM2.5 concentrations in low concentration areas can improve life expectancy for patients with specific cardiovascular diseases","authors":"Anqi You,&nbsp;Weiyao Cai,&nbsp;Yuanhong Zeng,&nbsp;Yanlin Huang,&nbsp;Ye Xiao,&nbsp;Lili Yu,&nbsp;Jinxi Shu,&nbsp;Qingping Xue,&nbsp;Yajie Zhang,&nbsp;Zhaoqiong Chen","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03233-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03233-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A growing number of studies suggest that exposure to particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters &lt; 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) below air quality standards still increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), and the risk of death from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, the largest cause of CVD death. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of PM_2.5 exposure at lower levels on years of life lost (YLL) and potential life expectancy benefits for IHD and stroke. We investigated the relationship between daily PM_2.5 and YLL for IHD and stroke using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution. Furthermore, we extended our analysis to estimate the Potential Gain in Life Expectancy (PGLE) and the Attributable Fraction (AF) under the current Chinese air quality standards and more stringent World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Findings reveal that for each 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, YLL rose by 1.69 years for IHD and 1.34 years for stroke, with the most significant effects observed on the day of exposure for IHD and three days post-exposure for stroke. The impact was more pronounced among women and those aged ≥ 65 years. If PM_2.5 levels met the 2021 WHO air quality guidelines, PGLE of 0.22 years for IHD and 0.16 years for stroke could be achieved. The study highlights the need for stricter PM_2.5 control measures to enhance cardiovascular health and reduce mortality, even in regions with relatively low pollution levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148547125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat stress associated depression and allied affliction: Therapeutic roles of nutrition, micronutrients, and phytochemicals-a review","authors":"Taha Majid Mahmood Sheikh,&nbsp;Abdul Malik Tareen,&nbsp;Muhammad Asif Arain","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03286-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03286-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Heat stress is a critical environmental factor disrupting systemic homeostasis and impairing mental health, with increasing evidence linking prolonged thermal exposure to depression and related neuropsychological disorders. Chronic heat stress induces neuroendocrine dysregulation via hyperactivation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, alongside oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and altered neurotransmitter signaling, collectively elevating risks of mood disturbances, anxiety, cognitive decline, and sleep disorders. Emerging evidence highlights nutrition as a key modulator of heat stress–induced neuropathology. Adequate macronutrient intake supports energy balance and thermoregulation, while micronutrients such as B vitamins, vitamin D, magnesium, zinc, selenium, and iron are essential for neurotransmission, antioxidant defense, and immune function. Additionally, phytochemicals including polyphenols, flavonoids, and carotenoids exert neuroprotective, anti-inflammatory, and HPA-regulatory effects, partly through modulation of the gut-brain axis. This integrative approach offers promising non-pharmacological strategies to enhance resilience against heat-induced depression.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148534738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the potential distribution of Nothotsuga longibracteata in China under current and future climate scenarios using the biomod2 model","authors":"Zhuangpeng Zheng,&nbsp;Haojun Deng,&nbsp;Weilan Xu,&nbsp;Yahui Mao,&nbsp;Gangbo Guo,&nbsp;Zhipeng Zhou,&nbsp;Weijie Yang,&nbsp;Shuwei Huang","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03277-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03277-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><i>Nothotsuga longibracteata</i> is an endangered tree species endemic to China whose conservation is constrained by limited information on habitat suitability. Using the biomod2 platform, we developed an ensemble model integrating climatic, topographic, edaphic, and human-related variables to predict its current and future potential distribution under climate change. The ensemble model consistently outperformed individual algorithms across evaluation metrics. The most important predictors were precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), human footprint, elevation, precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). Under current conditions, the suitable habitat for N. longibracteata covers approximately 872.5 × 10³km², concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangxi, with high-suitability areas primarily in southern Hunan, northeastern Guangxi, and northwestern Guangdong. Future projections revealed a decoupling between habitat extent and habitat quality, with low-suitability areas expanding while moderate- and high-suitability habitats declined, accompanied by shifts in the distribution centroid toward higher latitudes and elevations. This pattern suggests that changes in total suitable area alone may underestimate decline risk. Given the limited overlap between suitable habitat and existing protected areas, we recommend prioritizing in situ conservation in core regions, especially Hunan and Guangxi, while considering Hubei, Anhui, and Chongqing as potential areas for assisted migration and climate-adaptive cultivation.</p><p>Clinical Trial Registration: Not applicable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148519659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of medical mud-pack therapy on inflammatory gene expression and clinical outcomes in patients with knee osteoarthritis","authors":"Mustafa Kahraman,&nbsp;Serap Seringeç Karabulut,&nbsp;Kevser Gumussu,&nbsp;Sıla Hidayet Bozdoğan Polat,&nbsp;Ayla Şahin,&nbsp;Fevziye Naile Mısırlıoğlu,&nbsp;Abdülkadir Polat,&nbsp;Sükrü Öztürk","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03258-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03258-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aimed to evaluate the association of medical mud-pack therapy with changes in gene expression of key inflammatory markers, miRNA and clinical outcomes in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Thirty-two patients with knee osteoarthritis were assigned to a medical mud-pack therapy (MMT) group (n = 16) or control group (n = 16). Molecular assessments used quantitative PCR for key cytokines and miRNA expressions. Clinical outcomes were evaluated with the VAS for pain and WOMAC for function. Pre- and post-treatment measurements were obtained, with the MMT group receiving mud-pack therapy plus standard care, while controls performed exercise only. The MMT group showed significant reductions in gene expression of TNF-α (1.90 ± 0.41 to 1.43 ± 0.33, p &lt; 0.05), IL-6 (1.34 ± 0.31 to 0.93 ± 0.27, p &lt; 0.05), and IL-1β (2.20 ± 0.40 to 1.81 ± 0.34, p &lt; 0.05), whereas the control group showed no significant molecular changes. Between-group comparisons showed greater reductions in the MMT group for all cytokines (Δ difference: −0.38 to − 0.51, 95% CI not crossing zero, p &lt; 0.05) with large effect sizes (d = 0.88–1.12). miR-140 expression remained unchanged in both groups (p &gt; 0.05). Clinically, the MMT group showed significant VAS pain reduction after adjustment for baseline values (ANCOVA: post-treatment and first-month VAS both p &lt; 0.001), while the control group showed minimal change. Groups were similar in age and sex distribution. Medical mud-pack therapy combined with exercise was associated with reduced expression of key inflammatory cytokines and pain relief in knee osteoarthritis. Further studies are required to explore underlying molecular mechanisms of mud-pack interventions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148519668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of a Balneotherapy Cycle on Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients with Osteoarthritis: An Observational Multicenter Study in Medical Spa Centers in Trentino, Italy","authors":"Patrizia Manica,&nbsp;Michele Antonelli,&nbsp;Filiberto Zatelli,&nbsp;Marino Migazzi,&nbsp;Francesco Russo,&nbsp;Andrea Flamigni,&nbsp;Antonella Fioravanti","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03278-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03278-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This observational pre-post study included 316 osteoarthritis (OA) patients (229 females, 87 males) attending five certified medical spa (“<i>salus per aquam</i>”) centers in Trentino, Italy. Participants underwent 12 daily sessions over two weeks, consisting of hot balneotherapy, including 20-minute thermal baths at 37 °C. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was assessed using the SF-12 survey, generating Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) scores, measured at baseline (T0), immediately post-treatment (T1), and at three months after treatment (T2). Pain and joint stiffness were assessed using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and changes in symptomatic medication use were also recorded. Changes over time were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA, with gender-based comparisons and Bonferroni post-hoc tests. Both PCS and MCS scores improved significantly following balneotherapy (p &lt; 0.05) and were largely maintained at three months (Δ(PCS) = + 3.98; Δ(MCS) = + 4.30). Pain and stiffness decreased by 43% and 42%, respectively, with sustained effects at T2. Improvements were consistent across genders, with no significant time × gender interaction. A reduction in symptomatic medication use was observed, with 58.6% of patients decreasing intake to less than once per week at three months. The treatment was well tolerated, with no meaningful gender differences. In conclusion, balneotherapy appears to be a well-tolerated intervention associated with improvements in HRQL and symptom reduction in OA, with a potential role in reducing reliance on symptomatic pharmacological therapies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148519702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foehn wind as a biometeorological stressor: effects on somatic and mental health – a narrative review","authors":"Zbigniew Pankiewicz,&nbsp;Szymon Florek,&nbsp;Robert Pudlo","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03274-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03274-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This review summarizes research on foehn wind as a complex biometeorological stressor affecting somatic and neuropsychological health with particular attention to time-lagged effects and vulnerable populations. Foehn, warm and dry winds descending mountains, are linked to decreased mental well-being and are colloquially termed “suicide winds” in regional folklore; however, such interpretations require scientific verification. A structured literature search and narrative review of PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Researchgate and Google Scholar databases, using “foehn”, “halny” and “health” keywords in Polish and English, was conducted. Scientific articles, clinical reports, and reviews were analyzed. Studies, though limited in number, feature long observation periods and numerous participants. Research indicates a correlation between halny occurrences and increased suicide rates, aggression, and mental health deterioration, especially in predisposed individuals. Halny appears to exacerbate psychopathology during mental health crises, with stronger effects correlating with more pronounced winds. Effects are observed pre- and post-halny. While studies show a correlation between halny and worsened mental health, a direct causal link is not definitively established. Further detailed research is necessary to confirm causality and understand the mechanisms involved. This research would facilitate effective preventive measures, crucial given potential increases in halny frequency due to climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03274-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148459173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short and long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and meteorological factor and the risk of glaucoma: evidence from the China health and retirement longitudinal study, distributed lag non-linear and Mendelian randomization models","authors":"Yeni Li,&nbsp;Ling Zhu,&nbsp;Miaomiao Lu,&nbsp;Manli Wu,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Zhang,&nbsp;Feng Shi,&nbsp;Xiaonan Li","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03267-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03267-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the relationship between environmental factors, meteorological data and air pollution (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂), and the risk of glaucoma, using a comprehensive approach combining time-series analysis, cohort data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), and Mendelian randomization (MR). Using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM), the study first analyzed air pollution and temperature data in Shenyang (2013–2021), revealing that ambient temperature did not show significant short-term effects on glaucoma incidence. In contrast, NO₂ was significantly associated with short-term increases in glaucoma risk, particularly within a few days following exposure. PM_2.5 demonstrated short-term effects, with a stronger risk observed during colder months, when pollutant levels were elevated. PM₁₀ also exhibited a delayed impact on glaucoma risk, although its effect was less pronounced. Further analysis using CHARLS data confirmed these findings, with long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ associated with higher odds and hazard of developing glaucoma, especially among smokers. To assess causality, Mendelian randomization analyses provided genetic evidence that genetically predicted exposure to PM_2.5 (IVW OR = 1.367) and NO₂ (IVW OR = 1.463) were causally linked to an increased risk of glaucoma. The study found no significant causal association with PM₁₀ or workplace (indoor) temperature exposure. Overall, this study underscores the critical role of air pollution, particularly PM_2.5 and NO₂, in glaucoma risk. It highlights the importance of environmental policies aimed at improving air quality, particularly for vulnerable populations such as smokers, and suggests further investigation into the underlying biological mechanisms of pollutant-induced glaucoma.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148434728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-lapse digital cameras reveal contrasting environmental controls of leaf phenology in different caatinga physiognomies","authors":"Antonia Mirelle Lopes Marques,&nbsp;Desirée Marques Ramos,&nbsp;Leonor Patrícia Cerdeira Morellato,&nbsp;Kyle Graham Dexter,&nbsp;Bruna Alberton,&nbsp;Ítalo Antônio Cotta Coutinho","doi":"10.1007/s00484-026-03261-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00484-026-03261-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Leaf phenology in Tropical Dry Forests (TDF) is strongly influenced by environmental factors; however, responses may vary according to edaphic, structural, and floristic differences. The Caatinga, one of the largest continuous TDF in the Americas, exhibits pronounced hydric seasonality and encompasses distinct physiognomies such as the carrasco (deciduous shrubland) and crystalline caatinga (xeric shrubland). Studies addressing phenological variation among these two vegetation types remain limited and largely based on direct human observation. Our study aimed to advance the understanding of phenological dynamics in Caatinga TDF by investigating the climatic factors influencing leaf production and fall in woody communities of carrasco and crystalline vegetations using repeated digital photographs. Daily monitoring (2020–2024) provided green chromatic coordinate time series. Climatic drivers of Caatinga phenology (photoperiod, precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric moisture) were analyzed using principal component analysis and temporally structured generalized additive models. Woody communities of crystalline caatinga and carrasco exhibited distinct phenological strategies reflecting different responses to climatic variability. Leaf phenology in both areas was mainly driven by precipitation but was also associated with temperature. Carrasco showed more stable and predictable dynamics, with lower interannual variation in start of growing season (SOS), end of growing season (EOS), and length of growing season (LOS), retaining leaves about 20 days longer and responding to relief of hydrothermal stress at the end of the dry season. Crystalline caatinga was highly sensitive to rainfall irregularity and precipitation pulses. These results suggest that crystalline caatinga is more vulnerable to increasing climatic variability, whereas carrasco appears more resilient.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"70 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-026-03261-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148429588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}