Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques最新文献

{"title":"How Progressive Is the Canadian Personal Income Tax? A Buffett Curve Analysis","authors":"Kevin Milligan, Jennifer Fisher, Jasmine Thomas, Esther Schott, L. Kremin, K. Byers‐Heinlein, Xian Zhang, C. Carbonnier, Gordon M. Myers, G. Marchildon, L. di Matteo, Diane A. Isabelle, Yuanyuan Han, Mika Westerlund","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2021-087","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Cet article s’intéresse au fardeau des recettes fiscales au Canada, et prête une attention particulière aux impôts sur le revenu au sommet de la distribution des revenus. La théorie, la méthodologie et la mesure sont au coeur de la discussion. Je constate que l’impôt canadien sur le revenu des particuliers est progressif et il est conforme à la règle Buffett si on compare le haut de la distribution des revenus avec le milieu. Dans la moitié inférieure de la distribution, les questions de mesure sont essentielles pour décrire la charge fiscale. Au sommet de la distribution, les hypothèses d’incidence basées sur différentes théories de la mobilité du capital sont primordiales et ont un impact important sur la progressivité mesurée.Abstract:This article addresses the burden of tax revenue in Canada with particular attention to income taxes at the top of the income distribution. Theory, methodology, and measurement are central to the discussion. I find that the Canadian personal income tax is progressive and satisfies the Buffett rule comparing the top of the income distribution with the middle. In the bottom half of the distribution, issues of measurement are pivotal to characterizing the tax burden. At the top of the distribution, incidence assumptions based on different theories of capital mobility are paramount and have a large impact on measured progressivity.","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"30 1","pages":"211 - 224 - 225 - 253 - 254 - 266 - 267 - 284 - 285 - 303 - 304 - 316 - 317 - 321 - 322 - 342"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76084605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Replacement Rates of Public Pensions in Canada: Heterogeneity across Socio-Economic Status","authors":"Nicholas-James Clavet, M. El-Attar, Raquel Fonseca","doi":"10.54932/xcoz6579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54932/xcoz6579","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Plusieurs sources de revenus aident les personnes retraitées à maintenir leur autonomie financière et leur niveau de consommation après qu’elles ont quitté le marché du travail. Les régimes de retraite des gouvernements sont l’une de ces sources, mais leur importance varie beaucoup selon la situation socioéconomique des individus. Dans cet article, nous analysons la variation du taux de remplacement des régimes de retraite généraux (Sécurité de la vieillesse et Supplément de revenu garanti) et des régimes de retraite à participation obligatoire (Régime de pensions du Canada et Régime de rentes du Québec) en fonction de la situation socioéconomique, en nous servant des données de l’Étude longitudinale et internationale des adultes (ÉLIA). Ces données longitudinales nous permettent de calculer et de comparer les taux moyens de remplacement en fonction de la situation socioéconomique. Afin de comprendre les variations des taux de remplacement, nous considérons expressément l’influence de l’éducation et de la santé. Nos résultats montrent que le taux de remplacement moyen des régimes de retraite généraux est de 32 pour cent chez les personnes en mauvaise santé et de 21 pour cent chez celles qui déclarent être en bonne santé. Ces pourcentages passent à 54 pour cent dans le premier cas et à 41 pour cent dans le second quand on tient compte à la fois des prestations des régimes généraux et des régimes obligatoires du Canada et du Québec. Dans une analyse par régression linéaire multiple, avec le revenu antérieur comme variable de contrôle, nous avons considéré les couples et trouvé que le revenu antérieur n’élimine pas les différences de taux de remplacement obtenus en fonction du niveau d’éducation et de l’état de santé. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’homogamie de diplômes pourrait expliquer la variation des taux de remplacement selon le degré d’instruction des individus.Abstract:Several income sources can help retirees maintain their welfare and consumption levels once they leave the workforce. One source is public pensions. Their importance as an income source varies greatly according to socio-economic status (SES). In this article, we analyze how replacement rates (RRs) of public pensions (Old Age Security and Guaranteed Income Supplement) and mandatory public pension benefits (Canada/Quebec Pension Plan [C/QPP]) vary across SES by using the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults dataset. Taking advantage of the longitudinal nature of this survey, we compute and compare average RRs by SES. We specifically consider the role of education and health to understand variations in RRs. Our results show that the average RR of public pensions for individuals in bad health is 32 percent, whereas for those who report being in good health, it is 21 percent. When public pensions and C/QPP benefits are included, these percentages become 54 percent for those in bad health and 41 percent for those in good health. When estimating a multivariate regre","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"38 1","pages":"22 - 34"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74119951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Future of Long-Term Care in Quebec: What Are the Cost Savings from a Realistic Shift toward More Home Care?","authors":"Nicholas-James Clavet, R. Hébert, P. Michaud","doi":"10.54932/zrzh8256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54932/zrzh8256","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Dans cet article, nous tâchons d’estimer les besoins et les dépenses à venir en matière de soins de longue durée au Québec, tout en proposant et en évaluant un train de réformes qui répondrait mieux aux besoins et serait plus viable financièrement que les politiques actuelles. Ce train de réformes consiste en une transition vers un usage plus intensif des soins à domicile, simultanément à l’élargissement des soins pris en charge par le gouvernement. L’un des éléments clés de la réforme consiste à donner davantage d’autonomie aux utilisateurs et utilisatrices quant au choix de leur fournisseur de soins, par la création d’un compte de soins pour personnes âgées; ce compte permettrait aux personnes qui en ont besoin de se procurer les services de différents prestataires, tant parmi les soins fournis à domicile que parmi les soins fournis en établissement. Dans le but de rendre plus neutre le soutien public à différentes formes de soin, nous proposons également d’augmenter la contribution des résidents et des résidentes des maisons de soins, tout en privilégiant le maintien des crédits d’impôt accordés aux personnes âgées dont les besoins en soins sont peu élevés. À partir d’une modélisation dynamique détaillée des besoins en soins, des modes de vie et des dépenses, nous estimons que les besoins en soins de longue durée connaîtront une hausse accélérée dans les vingt prochaines années, et que leurs coûts deviendront rapidement prohibitifs si les politiques actuelles demeurent en vigueur. Nous montrons qu’il existe un moyen de réduire ces coûts de manière substantielle.Abstract:In this article, we aim to estimate future long-term care needs and expenditures in Quebec while proposing and evaluating a reform package that could deliver increased coverage and be more financially sustainable than current policy. This reform package consists of a shift toward more intensive use of home care while increasing public coverage of care needs. A key feature of the proposed reform is to improve users’ ability to choose their provider with the creation of a senior’s care account, an account that allows individuals in need to purchase services from several providers, including both home and institutional care. To improve the neutrality of public support across care arrangements, we also propose an increase in the resident contribution in nursing homes while favouring the continued use of existing tax credits to help seniors with lower care needs. Using detailed dynamic modelling of care needs, living arrangements, and expenditures, we estimate that long-term care needs will grow rapidly in the next two decades, and the costs will quickly become prohibitive under current policy. We show that substantial cost savings may exist.","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"48 1","pages":"35 - 50"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80366812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Imagining Resilient Courts: from COVID-19 to the Future of Canada's Court System.","authors":"David Matyas, Peter Wills, Barry Dewitt","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-015","DOIUrl":"10.3138/cpp.2021-015","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged an array of democratic institutions in complex and unprecedented ways. Little academic work, however, has considered the pandemic's impact on Canada's courts. This article aims to partially fill that gap by exploring the Canadian court system's response to COVID-19 and the prospects for administering justice amid disasters, all through the lens of resilience. After taking a forensic look at how the court system has managed the challenges brought on by COVID-19, we argue that features of resilience such as self-organization, flexibility, learning, and reflexive planning can contribute to the administration of justice during future shocks. We propose that the business of judging during shocks can become more integral to the business as usual of court systems. Imagining such a resilient court can be a way to step from COVID-19 to the future of Canada's court system.</p>","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"48 1","pages":"186-208"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9395162/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10236156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is the Unequal COVID-19 Burden in Canada Due to Unequal Levels of Citizen Discipline across Provinces?","authors":"Jean-François Daoust, Éric Bélanger, Ruth Dassonneville, Erick Lachapelle, Richard Nadeau","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-060","DOIUrl":"10.3138/cpp.2021-060","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The unequal burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis (e.g., in terms of infection and death rates) across Canadian provinces is important and puzzling. Some have speculated that differences in levels of citizen compliance with public health preventive measures are central to understanding cross-provincial differences in pandemic-related health outcomes. However, no systematic empirical test of this hypothesis has been conducted. In this research, we make use of an exceptionally large dataset that includes 23 survey waves (<i>N</i> = 22,610) fielded in Canada across 12 months (April 2020-April 2021) to answer the question \"Is there evidence of substantial cross-provincial differences in citizen compliance with basic public health measures designed to prevent the spread of infection?\" We find that regional differences in self-reported behaviour are few and very modest, suggesting that interprovincial differences in COVID-19-related health outcomes have little to do with differences in citizen compliance, at least in the first year of the pandemic. These results have important implications. Although it is crucial that we continue to study regional variations related to the COVID-19 burden, public health agency officials, pundits, and politicians should be cautious when musing about the role of citizen compliance as the primary explanation of interprovincial pandemic health outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"48 1","pages":"124-143"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9395160/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10238200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Empirical Examination of the Effect of COVID-19 Travel Restrictions on Canadians' Cross-Border Travel and Canadian Retailers.","authors":"Jen Baggs, Loretta Fung, Beverly Lapham","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-030","DOIUrl":"10.3138/cpp.2021-030","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been devastating for many Canadian retailers. In this article, we estimate the offsetting positive effects of decreased international travel by Canadians on retail revenues. We use data from 1991 to 2021 on Canadians' travel to the United States to estimate a model of cross-border travel and establish community-level counterfactual staying rates had the pandemic not occurred. Combined with actual staying rates and elasticities of retailers' revenues with respect to staying rates, we estimate offsetting revenue gains due to the fall in cross-border travel. Our results suggest that, on average, the border closure generated a 1.49 percent offsetting gain in revenues for small Canadian retailers located within 150 kilometres of the border. We document variation across communities and sub-sectors, with estimates ranging from 0 to 125 percent. Retailers located in less-affluent communities near US shopping opportunities, and those operating in sub-sectors catering to travellers, experienced the largest gains.</p>","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"48 1","pages":"162-185"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9400822/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10236157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Population Mobility on Daily COVID-19 Cases: Evidence from Ontario.","authors":"Nathaniel T Stevens, Anindya Sen, Francis Kiwon, Plinio P Morita, Stefan H Steiner, Qihuang Zhang","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-022","DOIUrl":"10.3138/cpp.2021-022","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study uses coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts and Google mobility data for 12 of Ontario's largest Public Health Units from Spring 2020 until the end of January 2021 to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; policy restrictions on business operations and social gatherings) and population mobility on daily cases. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation is used to account for potential simultaneity bias, because both daily COVID-19 cases and NPIs are dependent on lagged case numbers. IV estimates based on differences in lag lengths to infer causal estimates imply that the implementation of stricter NPIs and indoor mask mandates are associated with reductions in COVID-19 cases. Moreover, estimates based on Google mobility data suggest that increases in workplace attendance are correlated with higher case counts. Finally, from October 2020 to January 2021, daily Ontario forecasts from Box-Jenkins time-series models are more accurate than official forecasts and forecasts from a susceptible-infected-removed epidemiology model.</p>","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"48 1","pages":"144-161"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9395157/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10236160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Encadrement du bruit environnemental au Canada","authors":"J. Laplace, Edda Bild, Christopher Trudeau, Maxime Perna, T. Dupont, Catherine Guastavino","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2021-009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Environmental noise–both a quality of life and a public health issue–is regulated by and at different levels of government that vary throughout the world. In Canada, the federal, provincial and municipal governments (as well as other regional and local entities) share responsibilities for regulating noise from different sources, like transportation, leisure, industry or construction. The present review covers policies and regulations developed since the 1970s by different levels of government and shows a fragmented and uneven portrait that varies by provinces, as well as a multiplicity of stakeholders and measures that should be better integrated and harmonized. The current approach to noise, often focused on a posteriori redress and on controlling noise levels, is insufficient to address the wide variety of noise issues. We argue that it could be widened and enriched by (i) a qualitative analysis of the various sensibilities of different people to types of noise and their context, and (ii) planning tools that would integrate sound considerations in the early stages of land development and management practices. Thus improved, noise regulations would better equip different Canadian governmental actors to respond to the high economic and social costs of this environmental pollutant and to the desire to reduce inequalities in population noise exposures.Abstract:Le bruit environnemental–enjeu de santé publique et de qualité de vie–est encadré par différents paliers de gouvernement avec des prises en charge distinctes selon les États et régions du monde. Au Canada, le gouvernement fédéral, les provinces et les municipalités (et entités régionales et locales) se partagent la responsabilité du bruit provenant de différentes sources (transports, activités industrielles, activités récréatives, bruits de voisinage, etc.). La revue brossée ici à partir de politiques et de réglementations sur le bruit développées, depuis les années 1970, à tous ces paliers de gouvernement, laisse voir un portrait fragmentaire et inégal selon les provinces, ainsi qu'une multiplicité d'acteurs et de mesures qui exigeraient davantage d'intégration et d'harmonisation. L'étude prend appui sur une recension plus vaste à l'échelle internationale qui permet de situer le cas canadien et d'ouvrir sur une comparaison avec d'autres modèles. L'encadrement actuel, souvent centré sur des mesures réparatrices a posteriori, ne peut en lui-même résoudre tous les enjeux liés au bruit. Ce cadre d'action, qui repose principalement sur le contrôle des niveaux sonores, pourrait également être élargi et enrichi par des approches telles que (i) la prise en compte qualitative des diverses sensibilités des citoyens vis-à-vis du type de bruit rencontré et son contexte, et (ii) des outils de planification prenant pleinement en compte le bruit et plus largement l'environnement sonore en aménagement du territoire. Ainsi bonifié, l'encadrement du bruit serait en mesure de mieux répondre aux coûts ","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"41 1","pages":"74 - 90"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87906172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Skill Mismatch of Indigenous Peoples in Canada: Findings from PIAAC","authors":"Alexander Maslov, Jianwei Zhong","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2020-100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2020-100","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Dans l'échantillon canadien du Programme pour l'évaluation internationale des compétences des adultes (PEICA), les plus faibles résultats dans la catégorie « profession » se trouvent plus souvent chez les autochtones (hors réserve) que chez les non-autochtones. Ceci peut être interprété comme une preuve de ce que les économistes appellent la sous-qualification (« under-skilling »), sans implication sur la performance professionellle actuelle, mais, qui a été associée à une forte susceptibilité de perdre son emploi en période de ralentissement économique. Les taux de sous-qualification sont plus élevés pour la littératie du français et de l'anglais chez les hommes des Premières Nations, pour la numératie chez les femmes des Premières Nations et pour ces deux compétences chez les femmes et les hommes inuits. La surqualification est essentiellement liée à une utilisation non efficiente des ressources et à un faible bien-être. Une analyse des caractéristiques démographiques ne montre aucune preuve constante et statistiquement significative que les chances d'être surqualifié, c'est-à-dire d'avoir des scores plus élevés que les sujets du même groupe professionnel, diffèrent que l'on soit autochtone ou non. Dans les équations estimées de salaire, les écarts de salaire se resserrent lorsque nos estimations de surqualification–sous-qualification sont ajoutées aux valeurs de contrôle, mais les différences chez les Premières Nations demeurent négatives et significatives, surtout chez les hommes.Abstract:In the Canadian sample of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, lower scores within occupation groups are more common among Indigenous individuals (not living on reserves) than for non-Indigenous individuals. This may be interpreted as evidence of what economists call under skilling, with no implications regarding current job performance, but which has been associated with increased vulnerability to job loss during economic downturns. Estimated under-skilling rates are higher for English or French literacy among First Nations men, for numeracy among First Nations women, and for both proficiency domains among Inuit women and men. Over-skilling is primarily associated with inefficient use of labour resources and reduced welfare. Controlling for demographic characteristics, we find no consistent statistically significant evidence that the odds of being over-skilled—that is, of having higher scores than those within the same occupation group—are different for Indigenous individuals compared with non-Indigenous individuals. In estimated wage equations, wage differences shrink when our over-skilling and under-skilling estimates are added to the controls, but First Nations differences remain negative and significant, particularly for men.","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"114 1","pages":"107 - 91"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81813089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of an African Swine Fever Outbreak on Ontario's Pork Industry","authors":"Scott Biden, A. Ker, Stephen Duff","doi":"10.3138/cpp.2021-042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2021-042","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:La peste porcine africaine (PPA), maladie très contagieuse affectant les suidés domestiques et sauvages, se propage mondialement depuis un certain temps entrainant des effets dévastateurs sur les marchés du porc. L'Union européenne a enregistré une diminution des exportations de porc de 556 millions d'euros (9%) en raison de l'éclosion de cette maladie en 2014 dans quatre pays membres. Par ailleurs, lorsque la PPA a été déclarée en Chine en 2018, il y a eu une chute de 30% de l'inventaire porcin chinois et de la production porcine totale. La propagation de la PPA jusqu'en Amérique du Nord semble inévitable. En sachant que l'industrie porcine canadienne est essentiellement exportatrice, une éclosion on de la PPA au Canada peut avoir des effets dévastateurs sur les coûts économiques et le bien-être animal, occasionnés par des fermetures potentielles des frontières et une dépopulation porcine à grande échelle. Pour estimer les impacts, nous avons construit un modèle intégré vertical d'équilibre partiel de l'industrie porcine ontarienne, allant du pâturage jusqu'au consommateur final. Ainsi, s'il y a éclosion dans une zone de production centrale de l'Ontario, nous estimons que l'industrie porcine ontarienne pourrait avoir une perte de 860 millions de dollars (28,1%). Inversement, en cas d'éclosion à l'Ouest canadien, l'industrie porcine ontarienne enregistrerait 198 millions de dollars (6,5%) en bénéfices. Il ne serait pas surprenant de voir qu'une éclosion saura redistribuer des rentes économiques importantes dans le secteur selon l'emplacement exact de la première éclosion.Abstract:African swine fever (ASF), a highly contagious disease affecting domestic and wild pigs, has been spreading globally, with devastating impacts on hog markets. The European Union saw pork exports decrease by €556 million (9%) as a result of ASF outbreaks across four countries in 2014. Similarly, in 2018, when ASF was first reported in China, there was a 30% decrease in the Chinese pig inventory and in total pork production. ASF's eventual spread to North America seems inevitable. Given Canada's export-oriented pork industry, the economic costs and animal welfare impacts of an ASF outbreak in the Canadian hog sector could prove devastating as a result of potential border closures and large-scale animal depopulation. To estimate the impacts, we build a partial equilibrium, vertically integrated model of Ontario's pork industry from the breeding herd through to end consumer. If an outbreak occurred in a central production region of Ontario, we estimate that Ontario's pork industry would experience a welfare loss of C$860 million (28.1%). Conversely, if an outbreak occurred in Western Canada, the Ontario pork industry would benefit by C$198 million (6.5%). Not surprisingly, an outbreak will redistribute significant economic rents in the sector depending on where exactly the first outbreak occurs.","PeriodicalId":56148,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Public Policy-Analyse De Politiques","volume":"8 1","pages":"11 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81555210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}