Biostatistics最新文献

{"title":"A Bayesian pharmacokinetics integrated phase I–II design to optimize dose-schedule regimes","authors":"Mengyi Lu, Ying Yuan, Suyu Liu","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae034","url":null,"abstract":"The schedule of administering a drug has profound impact on the toxicity and efficacy profiles of the drug through changing its pharmacokinetics (PK). PK is an innate and indispensable component of the dose-schedule optimization. Motivated by this, we propose a Bayesian PK integrated dose-schedule finding (PKIDS) design to identify the optimal dose-schedule regime by integrating PK, toxicity, and efficacy data. Based on the causal pathway that dose and schedule affect PK, which in turn affects efficacy and toxicity, we jointly model the three endpoints by first specifying a Bayesian hierarchical model for the marginal distribution of the longitudinal dose-concentration process. Conditional on the drug concentration in plasma, we jointly model toxicity and efficacy as a function of the concentration. We quantify the risk-benefit of regimes using utility—continuously updating the estimates of PK, toxicity, and efficacy based on interim data—and make adaptive decisions to assign new patients to appropriate dose-schedule regimes via adaptive randomization. The simulation study shows that the PKIDS design has desirable operating characteristics.","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions for modeling multivariate case I interval-censored data","authors":"Maximilian Bardo, Niel Hens, Steffen Unkel","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae035","url":null,"abstract":"Random effect models for time-to-event data, also known as frailty models, provide a conceptually appealing way of quantifying association between survival times and of representing heterogeneities resulting from factors which may be difficult or impossible to measure. In the literature, the random effect is usually assumed to have a continuous distribution. However, in some areas of application, discrete frailty distributions may be more appropriate. The present paper is about the implementation and interpretation of the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions. We propose methods of estimation for this family of densities in the context of shared frailty models for the hazard rates for case I interval-censored data. Our optimization framework allows for stratification of random effect distributions by covariates. We highlight interpretational advantages of the Addams family of discrete frailty distributions and theK-point distribution as compared to other frailty distributions. A unique feature of the Addams family and the K-point distribution is that the support of the frailty distribution depends on its parameters. This feature is best exploited by imposing a model on the distributional parameters, resulting in a model with non-homogeneous covariate effects that can be analyzed using standard measures such as the hazard ratio. Our methods are illustrated with applications to multivariate case I interval-censored infection data.","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pooling controls from nested case–control studies with the proportional risks model","authors":"Yen Chang, Anastasia Ivanova, Demetrius Albanes, Jason P Fine, Yei Eun Shin","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae032","url":null,"abstract":"The standard approach to regression modeling for cause-specific hazards with prospective competing risks data specifies separate models for each failure type. An alternative proposed by Lunn and McNeil (1995) assumes the cause-specific hazards are proportional across causes. This may be more efficient than the standard approach, and allows the comparison of covariate effects across causes. In this paper, we extend Lunn and McNeil (1995) to nested case–control studies, accommodating scenarios with additional matching and non-proportionality. We also consider the case where data for different causes are obtained from different studies conducted in the same cohort. It is demonstrated that while only modest gains in efficiency are possible in full cohort analyses, substantial gains may be attained in nested case–control analyses for failure types that are relatively rare. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and real data analyses are provided using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) study.","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic and concordance-assisted learning for risk stratification with application to Alzheimer's disease.","authors":"Wen Li,Ruosha Li,Ziding Feng,Jing Ning,","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae036","url":null,"abstract":"Dynamic prediction models capable of retaining accuracy by evolving over time could play a significant role for monitoring disease progression in clinical practice. In biomedical studies with long-term follow up, participants are often monitored through periodic clinical visits with repeat measurements until an occurrence of the event of interest (e.g. disease onset) or the study end. Acknowledging the dynamic nature of disease risk and clinical information contained in the longitudinal markers, we propose an innovative concordance-assisted learning algorithm to derive a real-time risk stratification score. The proposed approach bypasses the need to fit regression models, such as joint models of the longitudinal markers and time-to-event outcome, and hence enjoys the desirable property of model robustness. Simulation studies confirmed that the proposed method has satisfactory performance in dynamically monitoring the risk of developing disease and differentiating high-risk and low-risk population over time. We apply the proposed method to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data and develop a dynamic risk score of Alzheimer's Disease for patients with mild cognitive impairment using multiple longitudinal markers and baseline prognostic factors.","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"HMM for discovering decision-making dynamics using reinforcement learning experiments.","authors":"Xingche Guo, Donglin Zeng, Yuanjia Wang","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae033","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Major depressive disorder (MDD), a leading cause of years of life lived with disability, presents challenges in diagnosis and treatment due to its complex and heterogeneous nature. Emerging evidence indicates that reward processing abnormalities may serve as a behavioral marker for MDD. To measure reward processing, patients perform computer-based behavioral tasks that involve making choices or responding to stimulants that are associated with different outcomes, such as gains or losses in the laboratory. Reinforcement learning (RL) models are fitted to extract parameters that measure various aspects of reward processing (e.g. reward sensitivity) to characterize how patients make decisions in behavioral tasks. Recent findings suggest the inadequacy of characterizing reward learning solely based on a single RL model; instead, there may be a switching of decision-making processes between multiple strategies. An important scientific question is how the dynamics of strategies in decision-making affect the reward learning ability of individuals with MDD. Motivated by the probabilistic reward task within the Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care (EMBARC) study, we propose a novel RL-HMM (hidden Markov model) framework for analyzing reward-based decision-making. Our model accommodates decision-making strategy switching between two distinct approaches under an HMM: subjects making decisions based on the RL model or opting for random choices. We account for continuous RL state space and allow time-varying transition probabilities in the HMM. We introduce a computationally efficient Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation and use a nonparametric bootstrap for inference. Extensive simulation studies validate the finite-sample performance of our method. We apply our approach to the EMBARC study to show that MDD patients are less engaged in RL compared to the healthy controls, and engagement is associated with brain activities in the negative affect circuitry during an emotional conflict task.</p>","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142127451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction.","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae029","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142074610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exposure proximal immune correlates analysis.","authors":"Ying Huang, Dean Follmann","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae031","DOIUrl":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae031","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Immune response decays over time, and vaccine-induced protection often wanes. Understanding how vaccine efficacy changes over time is critical to guiding the development and application of vaccines in preventing infectious diseases. The objective of this article is to develop statistical methods that assess the effect of decaying immune responses on the risk of disease and on vaccine efficacy, within the context of Cox regression with sparse sampling of immune responses, in a baseline-naive population. We aim to further disentangle the various aspects of the time-varying vaccine effect, whether direct on disease or mediated through immune responses. Based on time-to-event data from a vaccine efficacy trial and sparse sampling of longitudinal immune responses, we propose a weighted estimated induced likelihood approach that models the longitudinal immune response trajectory and the time to event separately. This approach assesses the effects of the decaying immune response, the peak immune response, and/or the waning vaccine effect on the risk of disease. The proposed method is applicable not only to standard randomized trial designs but also to augmented vaccine trial designs that re-vaccinate uninfected placebo recipients at the end of the standard trial period. We conducted simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our method and applied the method to analyze immune correlates from a phase III SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial.</p>","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141984050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regression and alignment for functional data and network topology.","authors":"Danni Tu, Julia Wrobel, Theodore D Satterthwaite, Jeff Goldsmith, Ruben C Gur, Raquel E Gur, Jan Gertheiss, Dani S Bassett, Russell T Shinohara","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae026","DOIUrl":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae026","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the brain, functional connections form a network whose topological organization can be described by graph-theoretic network diagnostics. These include characterizations of the community structure, such as modularity and participation coefficient, which have been shown to change over the course of childhood and adolescence. To investigate if such changes in the functional network are associated with changes in cognitive performance during development, network studies often rely on an arbitrary choice of preprocessing parameters, in particular the proportional threshold of network edges. Because the choice of parameter can impact the value of the network diagnostic, and therefore downstream conclusions, we propose to circumvent that choice by conceptualizing the network diagnostic as a function of the parameter. As opposed to a single value, a network diagnostic curve describes the connectome topology at multiple scales-from the sparsest group of the strongest edges to the entire edge set. To relate these curves to executive function and other covariates, we use scalar-on-function regression, which is more flexible than previous functional data-based models used in network neuroscience. We then consider how systematic differences between networks can manifest in misalignment of diagnostic curves, and consequently propose a supervised curve alignment method that incorporates auxiliary information from other variables. Our algorithm performs both functional regression and alignment via an iterative, penalized, and nonlinear likelihood optimization. The illustrated method has the potential to improve the interpretability and generalizability of neuroscience studies where the goal is to study heterogeneity among a mixture of function- and scalar-valued measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141977263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic EM algorithm for partially observed stochastic epidemics with individual heterogeneity.","authors":"Fan Bu, Allison E Aiello, Alexander Volfovsky, Jason Xu","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that disease transmission is constrained by the contact network structure, and network evolution is in turn influenced by individual disease statuses. To accommodate partial epidemic observations commonly seen in real-world data, we propose a stochastic EM algorithm for inference, introducing key innovations that include efficient conditional samplers for imputing missing infection and recovery times which respect the dynamic contact network. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our inference method can accurately and efficiently recover model parameters and provide valuable insight at the presence of unobserved disease episodes in epidemic data.</p>","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141903694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation.","authors":"Serge Aleshin-Guendel, Jon Wakefield","doi":"10.1093/biostatistics/kxae030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxae030","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.</p>","PeriodicalId":55357,"journal":{"name":"Biostatistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141894969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}