Global and Planetary Change最新文献

{"title":"Nanoparticles of iridium and other platinum group elements identified in Chicxulub asteroid impact spherules – Implications for impact winter and profound climate change","authors":"Vivi Vajda ,&nbsp;Susan Nehzati ,&nbsp;Gavin Kenny ,&nbsp;Hermann D. Bermúdez ,&nbsp;Ashley Krüger ,&nbsp;Alexander Björling ,&nbsp;Adriana Ocampo ,&nbsp;Ying Cui ,&nbsp;Kajsa G.V. Sigfridsson Clauss","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Chicxulub asteroid that ended the Cretaceous Era ∼66.05 million years ago caused a prolonged time of global darkness – the impact winter – leading to mass extinctions. Elements from the asteroid, including the platinum group elements (PGEs) osmium, iridium and platinum are known from the globally distributed boundary clay but their carrier elements have so far been unknown. We identify, for the first time in detail, the presence of these PGEs within Chicxulub impact spherules and importantly, we identify their carrier elements. We show through synchrotron Nano-XRF how these PGEs occur in nanostructures as un-ordered cube- and/or needle-like crystals co-localizing with both siderophile and chalcophile elements including Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb, derived from the asteroid. These crystals are set within a matrix of iron-rich calcium and silica glass revealing the mix of vaporized target rock and the asteroid. The results provide insights into the combination of elements present in the spherules, indicating formation of new minerals. We argue that the nano-shards of unreactive elements such as platinum, iridium and copper acted as nuclei for aerosol formation and potentially contributed to a prolonged impact winter with darkness and cooling leading to a profound and long-term climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104659"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large ensemble simulations indicate increases in spatial compounding of droughts and hot extremes across multiple croplands in China","authors":"Boying Lv,&nbsp;Zengchao Hao,&nbsp;Yutong Jiang,&nbsp;Qian Ma,&nbsp;Yitong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The simultaneous occurrence of extremes (e.g., droughts) at multiple regions (usually termed as spatial compounding of extremes), such as croplands, may lead to large impacts on global food security. Recently, the concurrent droughts and hot extremes at a specific location, which are referred to as compound droughts and hot extremes (CDHEs), have garnered considerable attention due to the potentially amplified impacts of individual extremes. Though the spatial compounding of individual droughts or hot extremes has been assessed, the variability of the spatial compounding of CDHEs across multiple croplands in China has been lacking due to relatively short records or small sample sizes. In this study, we evaluated changes in the spatial compounding of CDHEs across multiple croplands in China, including Songnen Plain (SN), North China Plain (NC), and Sichuan Basin (SC), based on precipitation and temperature data from CN05.1 and large ensemble model (CESM1-CAM5). Results show that the frequency of CDHEs in each region will increase in future periods especially for the eastern SN, central NC, and northern SC (increase by more than 15 months), with more than 70 % of the 40 ensemble members showing a large increase. Projected changes of different cases of spatial compounding of CDHEs in three croplands (i.e., SN-NC, NC-SC, SN-SC, SN-NC-SC) showed increases from 1961–2010 to 2031–2080. In particular, higher increases in the spatial compounding of CDHEs in the NC-SC region are projected (from 0.58 to 3.73 months on average), with the ratio of non-zero event members increasing from 47.5 % to 95 %. These results underscore the high risk of the spatial compounding of extremes at multiple croplands in China in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104670"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142841260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of the Asian summer monsoon during the Heinrich events 1–6","authors":"Yan-Xia Xue ,&nbsp;Yao Wu ,&nbsp;Chao-Jun Chen ,&nbsp;Jun-Yun Li ,&nbsp;Hai Cheng ,&nbsp;Chuan-Chou Shen ,&nbsp;Jian Zhang ,&nbsp;Ting-Yong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are still a series of controversies about the variation patterns and spatial differences of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during the Heinrich Stadials (HSs). Using stalagmite δ¹⁸O records from Yangkou Cave, Southwest China, this study revealed the climate dynamics of 6 weak ASM events corresponding to Heinrich events since the last glacial period. During the Asian Heinrich Stadial (AHS) 1–6, the ASM intensity in northern China responded rapidly to climate change in the North Atlantic, whereas the response in southern China was gradual. Ocean-atmosphere interactions under the bipolar “see-saw” mechanism dominated the ASM dynamics during the HSs. The ASM strengthening in the south of the Asian monsoon region was earlier and more gradual than in the north during the termination of the AHS, implying that the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and tropical oceans played a critical role in the termination of millennial-scale abrupt climatic events. According to our observations, variations in moisture transport distances resulted in spatial differences in amplitude of stalagmite δ¹⁸O during the AHSs, implying that δ¹⁸O can reflect the hydrological imprint of variation in the ASM circulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104680"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142884633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Half-day (daytime and nighttime) precipitation extremes in China: Changes and attribution from 1981 to 2022","authors":"Jiahao Han ,&nbsp;Shibo Fang ,&nbsp;Xiaomao Lin ,&nbsp;Zhanhao Zhang ,&nbsp;Man Li ,&nbsp;Yanru Yu ,&nbsp;Wen Zhuo ,&nbsp;Xinyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increased atmospheric water vapor pressure due to the warming climate has led to more frequent and extreme precipitation events, which has resulted in incalculable losses. The hydrothermal circulation suggests that extreme daytime and nighttime precipitation patterns can have many distinct consequences,ranging from changes in various scale hydrological cycles to social security concerns. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of daytime and nighttime precipitation events remain underexplored, lacking quantitative analysis. Therefore, our study analyzed daily precipitation data (including 24-h, daytime, and nighttime) from 1981 to 2022 across China to investigate extreme precipitation patterns at a half-day scale (daytime and nighttime). Fourteen monthly extreme indices associated with atmospheric circulations and sea surface temperatures were examined to clarify precipitation distribution patterns using random forest and optimal fingerprinting techniques. The main findings are: (1) A clear upward trend was found in cumulative precipitation, intensifying the frequency of extreme precipitation events. Notably, the increase in both accumulated 24-h precipitation and the rate of nighttime precipitation exceeded the rate of daytime precipitation between 1981 and 2022. This trend became more pronounced as precipitation events became more extreme. (2) Most regions in China exhibited an increasing trend in both cumulative precipitation days and total precipitation, particularly in the North China Plain, although the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau saw significant decreases in both variables. (3) Extreme precipitation events were primarily driven by changes in the different types of the Subtropical High (Western Pacific, South China Sea, and Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High), along with the typhoons southeast of the Hu Huanyong line. These findings enhance the understanding of hydrothermal exchange processes and extreme precipitation, providing a useful basis for climate change adaptations in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142935463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Response of carbonate rock weathering carbon sink to seismic peak ground acceleration in China","authors":"Minghui Li ,&nbsp;Qiu Tan ,&nbsp;Guangjie Luo ,&nbsp;Chaojun Li ,&nbsp;Chen Ran ,&nbsp;Sirui Zhang ,&nbsp;Lian Xiong ,&nbsp;Jingjing Liao ,&nbsp;Chaochao Du ,&nbsp;Zilin Li ,&nbsp;Yingying Xue ,&nbsp;Mingkang Long ,&nbsp;Qing Luo ,&nbsp;Xiaoqian Shen ,&nbsp;Shu Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaoyun Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuanhuan Xie ,&nbsp;Xiaoyong Bai","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seismic peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a key indicator to characterize the strength of seismic effects, which affects the rate of chemical weathering of carbonate rocks and the ability to capture CO₂. However, the response mechanism and process of Carbonate rock weathering Carbon Sink (CCS) to PGA are not clear. To this end, this paper clarifies the spatial and temporal patterns of CCS in China and reveals their response to PGA based on PGA, climate, lithology and other datas, combined with methods such as the random forest model and maximal potential dissolution model. The results showed that the CCS Flux(CCSF) was 5.32 t C km⁻² yr⁻¹ and the Full CCS (FCCS) was 1346 × 10⁴ t C yr⁻¹, which was influenced by PGA, with the flux being the largest at 0.05 g PGA (5.38 t C km⁻² yr⁻¹), mainly in the south-western part of the country where hydrothermal conditions are favourable. Meanwhile, the response of CCS to PGA was affected by latitude and altitude divergence. CCS at the same latitude showed a fluctuating downward trend with the enhancement of PGA. Two trends of CCS and PGA at the same altitude appeared, one was that CCS increased with the enhancement of PGA when the altitude was less than 2500 m as well as 4500–6500 m, and the other was that CCS decreased with the enhancement of PGA when the altitude was 2500–4500 m. At the same PGA, CCS decreased with increasing latitude and elevation, respectively. This may be due to the fact that higher altitude and latitude are associated with lower temperatures, which affects the rate of chemical weathering of carbonate rocks, and hence CCS. The aim of this paper is to understand the response relationship between CCS and PGA, which helps to reveal how geologic activities affect the carbon cycle. The results of the study bridge the gap between tectonic geology and CCS systematic research to a certain extent, and promote the integration of the disciplines. This is of great significance for assessing the potential impact of natural disasters such as earthquakes on carbon sinks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"246 ","pages":"Article 104729"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143124537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Magnetic susceptibility cyclostratigraphy of the lower Schwarzrand Subgroup in southern Namibia refines temporal calibration of late Ediacaran bilaterian radiation","authors":"Zheng Gong ,&nbsp;Iona Baillie ,&nbsp;Lyle L. Nelson ,&nbsp;Stacey H. Gerasimov ,&nbsp;Catherine Rose ,&nbsp;Emily F. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Nama Group in southern Namibia captures one of the best-preserved records of the last ∼10 million years of the Ediacaran Period, recording pivotal changes to Earth's biosphere and oceans. Within the Nama Group, the lower Schwarzrand Subgroup preserves early complex bilaterian trace fossils, but uncertainties surrounding the ages of their first occurrences hinder global correlation and the understanding of the rates at which critical biological changes occurred. This study presents magnetic susceptibility cyclostratigraphy of a recently acquired drill core that covers the Nudaus Formation and Nasep Member within the lower Schwarzrand Subgroup. Spectral analysis reveals a hierarchy of orbital cycles that could be responsible for the repeating depositional sequences at various length scales in the Schwarzrand Subgroup. Matching the wavelengths of the orbital cycles to their expected periodicities, we established sedimentation rates throughout the stratigraphy. Utilizing available U<img>Pb ages from correlative outcrop sections and the sedimentation rates from cyclostratigraphy, we refine the age-depth model for the lower Schwarzrand Subgroup. Our new age-depth model places tighter temporal constraints on the first appearances of complex trace fossils, thus constraining the earliest major radiation of bilaterian metazoans and contributing to a better-calibrated chronostratigraphy of the terminal Ediacaran Period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104668"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Holocene dust activity in inland Asia driven by both the mid-latitude Westerlies and the East Asian winter monsoon","authors":"Haipeng Wang ,&nbsp;Jianhui Chen ,&nbsp;Yuanhao Sun ,&nbsp;Ruijin Chen ,&nbsp;Nasetay Aydenbek ,&nbsp;Jianbao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inland Asia is a major global source of dust and the dust transport from this region has global implications. However, the processes and forcing mechanisms of dust activity in inland Asia during the Holocene are still debated due to the lack of high-quality records with accurate dating, unambiguous dust signals, and a high resolution. Here we present a well-dated record of dust activity based on the Ti content of the sediments of Shuanghu Lake, in the southern Altai Mountains, with a ∼ 15-yr-resolution and covering the entire Holocene. This record shows a gradual decrease in dust intensity during ∼11.7–6 thousand years ago (ka), followed by a persistent increase since ∼6 ka. Frequent dust events are also evident, lasting hundreds of years, and are superimposed on the millennial-scale trend, corresponding to the nine North Atlantic Bond events. We propose that the millennial-scale trend of dust activity was primarily influenced by variations in the mid-latitude Westerlies, while the dust events on the centennial scale were driven primarily by a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. Overall, this study provides a reliable, high-resolution record of Holocene dust activity in inland Asia, and it updates the previous view that dust activity in this region was solely controlled by the mid-latitude Westerlies or the Siberian High. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of global dust transport with implications for predicting future dust activity in this region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104661"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pacific Walker Circulation modulated millennial-scale East Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability over the past 40 kyr","authors":"Yi Zhong ,&nbsp;Yuxing Liu ,&nbsp;Xiaojing Du ,&nbsp;Xiaoxu Shi ,&nbsp;Xing Xu ,&nbsp;Zhengyao Lu ,&nbsp;Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr ,&nbsp;Mark J. Dekkers ,&nbsp;Juan C. Larrasoaña ,&nbsp;Keiji Horikawa ,&nbsp;Chijun Sun ,&nbsp;Liang Ning ,&nbsp;André Bahr ,&nbsp;Yanan Zhang ,&nbsp;Debo Zhao ,&nbsp;Jiabo Liu ,&nbsp;Wenyue Xia ,&nbsp;Jingyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Sheng Yang ,&nbsp;Hai Li ,&nbsp;Qingsong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104676","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104676","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The millennial-scale hydroclimate variability in East Asia has been debated for a long time due to the lack of reliable precipitation records from southern China and inconsistent model simulations. Here, we reconstruct a 40-kyr rainfall record for southern China and Taiwan based on enviro-magnetic and clay mineral proxy parameters from a northern South China Sea marine sediment core. Both proxies suggest reduced East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation in the southern China-Taiwan region during North Atlantic cooling episodes. After integration with other EASM precipitation records and modeling results, we conclude that the spatial precipitation pattern across Southeast Asia is closely related to the strength of the Pacific Walker Circulation. This interpretation is supported by a model simulation that emphasizes the role of the Walker Circulation in transferring North Atlantic climate variability to the East Asian hydroclimate. Our findings contribute to resolving the disparities between precipitation proxies and model simulations in Southeast Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104676"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142841258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Rowley Shoals atolls: Remnants of a Miocene great barrier reef on the north-west Australian margin","authors":"Jackson C. McCaffrey ,&nbsp;Stephen J. Gallagher ,&nbsp;Malcolm W. Wallace ,&nbsp;Tanita Averes ,&nbsp;Stanislaus G. Fabian ,&nbsp;Katja Lindhorst ,&nbsp;Lars Reuning ,&nbsp;Sebastian Krastel","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104688","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104688","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The tropical North West Shelf of Australia hosts a diverse range of modern reefs. Six shelf edge isolated atolls are present north of 18°S including: Ashmore Reef, Scott Reef and Seringapatam Reef, and three Rowley Shoals. The Ningaloo Reef is a fringing reef around the North West Cape at 22°S. All of these reefs are the remnants of a vast 2000 km long barrier reef that drowned during the Late Miocene (∼10 Ma). Despite extensive hydrocarbon exploration in the region, the history of these isolated reefs is not well known. Seismic analyses combined with stratigraphic analyses of International Ocean Discovery Site U1464 near the Rowley Shoals has revealed that these modern isolated atolls have a complex evolution related to climate and tectonism as they managed to survive on their Miocene barrier reef foundation.</div><div>The first Miocene reefs (∼17 Ma) near the Rowley Shoals were isolated small, mound-shaped features. These evolved into a barrier reef by the Middle Miocene (∼16 Ma). However, by the Late Miocene (∼10 Ma) this barrier reef backstepped landward, evolved into isolated mounds/atolls and drowned prior to the Miocene-Pliocene boundary (∼6 Ma) largely due regional tectonic subsidence. Early Pliocene reef expansion (∼4.6 Ma) led to the growth of four isolated atolls (the Rowley Shoals) related to local faulting and Early Pliocene warmth. Subsequently a second Pliocene reef growth phase occurred from ∼3.5 to 3 Ma when eastern Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures cooled by ∼4 °C due to Indonesian Gateway constriction and a reduced Leeuwin Current. By the Pleistocene (∼2.4 Ma) one the four Rowley Shoals had drowned. Strong sea level variability, together with Indonesian Throughflow constriction and reduction in intensity of the Leeuwin Current after 2.4 Ma may have led to enhanced cooling and regional upwelling. These factors may have been sufficient to cause local drowning of the southerly fourth Rowley Shoal while the more northerly three Shoals survived until present.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104688"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142905669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combined impacts of land change and climate variability on ecosystem net primary productivity in arid regions","authors":"Emeka Edwin Igboeli ,&nbsp;Ogbue Chukwuka ,&nbsp;Friday Uchenna Ochege ,&nbsp;Chukwuemeka Anthony Onyekwelu ,&nbsp;Qing Ling ,&nbsp;Chukwuedozie Ajaero ,&nbsp;Rafiq Hamdi ,&nbsp;Mijanur Rahman ,&nbsp;Alphonse Kayiranga ,&nbsp;Geping Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104682","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104682","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is an index for assessing ecosystem services and productivity on land. However, previous studies focused solely on NPP changes across ecological regions, overlooking the comparative advantage of the impacts of land changes and climatic variations on various forms of NPP as indicators of ecosystem degradation and restoration across different eco-political milieux. This study comparatively analyzed land cover changes and examined NPP trends and their effects using Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen slopes, the Pearson correlation, and advanced geostatistical methods in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) and the Aral Sea Basin (ASB). We found that from 2000 to the present and projected to 2030, cropland is expected to expand by 2.20 %, leading to a reduction of shrubland by −2.40 % in LCB. Likewise, a probable increase of 1.1 % in grassland is expected to further reduce waterbodies in ASB by −1.5 %. These potential changes are the resultant effect of the present human-induced NPP (HNPP) reduction of −5.92gC/m²/yr across 2.44 × 10³ km² and 29.84gC/m²/yr across 14.32× 10³ km², indicating human-dominated degradation (HDD) in LCB. Whereas, in ASB, the influence of HNPP by −8.12 gC/m²/yr across 14.32 × 10³ km² and by 4.00gC/m²/yr across 7.24× 10³ km² indicate incipient human-dominated restoration scenarios. Consequent to the warming temperature, climate fluctuations are characterized by HDD in LCB, whereas in ASB, they are characterized by climate-induced degradation. Apprehending these evolving dynamics in endorheic lakes can provide insight into potential restoration trajectories for future land degradations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"245 ","pages":"Article 104682"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142884640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}