Global and Planetary Change最新文献

{"title":"Sediment provenance and foraminiferal isotope records reveal eccentricity-paced African monsoon variability in the Early Miocene","authors":"Qimei Guo ,&nbsp;Yue Cai ,&nbsp;Ahmed N. El-Barkooky ,&nbsp;Abdel-Moneim El-Araby ,&nbsp;Ting Ruan ,&nbsp;Jing Liu ,&nbsp;Anping Zou ,&nbsp;Ahmed Zakaria ,&nbsp;Nicholas Christie-Blick ,&nbsp;Raed Badr","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monsoons play a pivotal role in regulating the global climate system and sustaining agricultural productivity. However, our understanding of monsoon evolution, particularly the African monsoons before the Middle Miocene, remains limited due to the paucity of relevant geological records. Well-preserved, uplifted Lower Miocene marine strata from the Gulf of Suez (GoS) basin could bridge this critical gap in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here we present, for the first time, high-resolution age model for the 20.68–19.12 Ma Nukhul Formation from the Wadi Baba area at the eastern margin of the GoS, based on nannofossil biostratigraphy, strontium isotope stratigraphy, and benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O records. Building upon this age framework, geochemical compositions (¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, and Ni/Al ratios) of fine-grained (&lt;63 μm) silicate GoS sediments reveal an increased contribution from volcanic sources, most likely the Oligocene Ethiopian Highland volcanics, during times in which the West African summer monsoon was intensified. Such spans are hypothesized to have corresponded with an increase in the fine-grained detrital flux of the Miocene river system (MRS) in northeastern Africa from the Ethiopian Highlands to the eastern Mediterranean, and indirectly into the GoS basin. We find that, similar to records of Plio-Pleistocene West African summer monsoons and Oligo-Miocene Asian summer monsoons, Early Miocene West African summer monsoon variability was dominated by the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle, with wetter conditions during eccentricity maxima. This remarkable coherence underscores the 405-kyr eccentricity forcing as a fundamental pacemaker of tropical hydroclimate for at least the last 20 Myr, even under much warmer climate conditions like those of the Early Miocene.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing","authors":"Senlin Tang ,&nbsp;Qiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Xintong Gong ,&nbsp;Chong-Yu Xu ,&nbsp;Vijay P. Singh ,&nbsp;Fubao Sun ,&nbsp;Yao Feng ,&nbsp;Ziwei Li ,&nbsp;Likun Han","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Abstract</h3><div>Water is vital for the sustainability of human society, and rational water resources management and effective adaptation strategies require a clear and holistic understanding of the drivers and uncertainties influencing water availability. However, the key factors and uncertainties, and their spatial heterogeneity in global water resources remain poorly quantified. Here, we employed optimal fingerprinting to identify the drivers of global water resources changes from 1980 to 2014. We found that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing explains approximately 77.6 % of the observed upward trend, significantly outweighing the contributions from natural external forcing (NAT, 45.8 %) and aerosols (AER, −23.4 %). We evaluated the contributions of internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty to future global water-resource projections, and attributed ∼89.2 % of the total variance to the model uncertainty. Furthermore, by integrating historical observations (1995–2014) with the emergent constraint method, we reduced uncertainties in future projections (2081–2100) under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The constrained projections revealed the underestimation of water-resource changes by 18.0 % (SSP2–4.5) and 13.4 % (SSP5–8.5) for the 2081–2100 period. Notably, model uncertainty under both warming scenarios fell by 33.1 % and 26.4 %, respectively, substantially boosting the reliability of future projections. These findings advance our understanding of the drivers and uncertainties in global water resources, informing adaptation strategies and long-term water resources planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105252"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The tripartite 4.2 ka event in East Asia: Stalagmite evidence and its interregional implications","authors":"Zhenqiu Zhang ,&nbsp;Weihong Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Shang ,&nbsp;Jianshun Chen ,&nbsp;Yijia Liang ,&nbsp;Qingfeng Shao ,&nbsp;Kan Zhao ,&nbsp;Yongqiu Wu ,&nbsp;Yongjin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 4.2 ka event is traditionally viewed as a megadrought that contributed to the demise of ancient civilizations and marks the mid-to-late Holocene boundary. However, its spatiotemporal consistency and underlying drivers remain unresolved, rendering it a contentious topic. Here, we present a precisely dated and highly resolved stalagmite multiproxy record from East Asia, derived from petrographic (calcite versus aragonite) and geochemical analyses. Our results demonstrate that the 4.2 ka event consisted of three distinct hydroclimatic intervals: an initial arid interval from 4.55 to 4.25 ka BP, a subsequent non-arid interval from 4.25 to 3.86 ka BP, and a final arid interval from 3.86 to 3.73 ka BP. This tripartite structure challenges the long-standing paradigm that the event was uniformly arid or humid. Notably, the middle non-arid interval in East Asia coincided with the canonical arid 4.2 ka event documented across the Mediterranean region, indicating a dynamic climatic teleconnection between these two regions. The non-arid interval in East Asia and the contemporaneous arid 4.2 ka event across the Mediterranean correspond to a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. In contrast, the two arid intervals in East Asia that have no clear counterparts in the Mediterranean region coincide with warm PDO phases. This pattern implies that tropical forcing was likely a key driver of the canonical 4.2 ka event across the Mediterranean and exerted a sustained influence on the East Asia hydroclimate around this period. Our study offers a comprehensive multiproxy framework for re-evaluating the spatial manifestations and driving mechanisms of the 4.2 ka event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105200"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145613703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenic influences on rainfall seasonality changes and underlying physical mechanisms in global land monsoon regions","authors":"Shulin Deng ,&nbsp;Xuanhua Song ,&nbsp;Chunhua Lu ,&nbsp;Menglan Lu ,&nbsp;Tan Chen ,&nbsp;Ni Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Changes in seasonal distributions of rainfall have far-reaching impacts on agriculture production, freshwater resource management, and sustainable socio-economic development. Previous studies suggested that rainfall seasonality become stronger in many parts of the world during recent decades, however, whether and how human activities affect rainfall seasonality changes is largely unclear. Here, we analyzed the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on rainfall seasonality changes and underlying physical mechanisms in global land monsoon (GM) regions. The results from both the observations and historical simulations show that rainfall seasonality significantly enhances in South American, South African, North African, and South Asian monsoon regions. The enhanced rainfall seasonality and amplified risk of extreme seasonality can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing in these regions, but the contributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosols (AER) forcings to rainfall seasonality changes vary in different regions. Further moisture budget analysis reveals that the GHG-forced thermodynamic term of vertical moisture advection, AER-forced dynamic term of vertical moisture advection, or both dominate the magnitudes and directions of rainfall trends in months during the beginning, middle, or late of local wet season, and thus alter rainfall concentration of wet season and rainfall magnitude and finally enhance rainfall seasonality in South American, North African, South African, and South Asian monsoon regions. These findings provide more reliable evidence that the enhanced rainfall seasonality in much of GM regions is attributable to anthropogenic climate change, suggesting that both GHG and AER emissions reductions are urgently needed to mitigate rainfall seasonality changes in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105253"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145753362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ENSO variations during the mid- to late Holocene: Evidence from coral growth rates spanning 2203 years in the northern South China Sea","authors":"Dahua Huang ,&nbsp;Kefu Yu ,&nbsp;Leilei Jiang ,&nbsp;Wei Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates global interannual climate variability and significantly impacts human societies. However, ENSO behavior during the Holocene remains poorly constrained and debated, limiting our ability to assess its long-term dynamics. Here, we present a 2203-year, discontinuous record of annual coral growth rates, derived from 113 U-series-dated fossil corals (<em>Porites lutea</em>) collected from eastern Hainan Island in the northern South China Sea (SCS), spanning 5829–2643 years before present (a BP, relative to 1950 Common Era [CE]). Using a robust calibration between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature (SST), we quantitatively reconstruct annual SST fluctuations in the northern SCS, ranging from 24.2 °C to 27.5 °C, with a mean of 25.6 ± 0.4 °C (1σ), approximately 0.7 °C lower than the baseline of 1982–2023 CE. The SST record reveals at least 18 cold periods occurring quasi-periodically at ∼200-year intervals, with their durations shortening toward the Late Holocene. Since coral growth rates closely track local SST variability, interannual ENSO signals are reliably preserved in the coral archive. The inferred ENSO variability exhibits pronounced multidecadal modulation, transitioning from weaker-than-present, persistent La Niña-like conditions in the Mid-Holocene (∼5800–4200 a BP) to stronger-than-present, prolonged El Niño-like conditions in the Late Holocene (∼4200–2600 a BP). These ENSO shifts cannot be fully explained by external forcings such as orbital insolation or volcanic activity, highlighting the predominant role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics in modulating ENSO evolution during the Holocene.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105259"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating uncertainty in global wave storm characteristics using CMIP6-derived wave climate simulations with SWAN and WAVEWATCH III models","authors":"Rajesh Kumar ,&nbsp;Khalid Amarouche ,&nbsp;Adem Akpinar ,&nbsp;Bahareh Kamranzad ,&nbsp;Gil Lemos","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the performance and uncertainties of two third-generation spectral wave models, SWAN and WW3, in simulating global wave storm characteristics, including mean and maximum storm wave heights, storm duration, and storm power. The models were forced with CMIP6-derived EC-Earth3 wind and sea ice data for 1984–2014 and validated against ERA5 reanalysis and in-situ buoy observations. Results show that SWAN model consistently underestimates storm wave height, particularly in tropical and high-energy regions, whereas WW3 aligns more closely with ERA5 but tends to overestimate storm wave heights and storm power in the Southern Ocean. Both models reproduce storm durations reasonably well, although WW3 exhibits fewer significant biases and narrower confidence intervals, reflecting higher reliability. Storm power analysis reveals SWAN's systematic underestimation and WW3's better overall performance, albeit with localized overestimations in extreme-energy basins. Comparisons with buoy data confirm WW3's improved accuracy in estimating storm durations and power, though challenges remain in replicating extreme wave heights. These findings underscore the inter-model uncertainty associated with different wave models and emphasize the need for refined wave model physics and regional calibration to improve the reliability of global wave-storm projections and better inform coastal planning and climate adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105214"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stable Pacific deep circulation punctuated by episodic intensification during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition","authors":"Ke Li ,&nbsp;Jun Tian ,&nbsp;Ning Zhao ,&nbsp;Jianghui Du ,&nbsp;Zhonghui Liu ,&nbsp;Jinlong Du ,&nbsp;Enqing Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 600–1300 ka) marks the shift of the dominant ice age cycle from 41-kyr to 100-kyr in the late Pleistocene. While the Atlantic Ocean circulation changes have been found to be closely linked with the MPT, the Pacific's role remains poorly constrained. Here we present fish teeth neodymium isotope (ε_Nd) records from three sites along the Pacific Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) to capture the Pacific deep ocean circulation changes on Glacial-Interglacial (G-IG) timescale during the MPT. We found reduced deep water ε_Nd gradient (Δε_Nd) between north and south Pacific during glacial periods. After constraining non-conservative influences on ε_Nd, we infer that enhanced northward expansion of Southern Component Water (SCW) and/or shoaling of the Pacific Deep Water (PDW)-Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) interface best explain the observed patterns. While the G-IG variability of the Δε_Nd is largely consistent throughout the MPT, indicating a generally stable rhythm of Pacific deep overturning circulation, the pronounced ε_Nd values of the three Pacific sites during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 22 suggest a transient circulation anomaly. The rigorous Pacific deep ocean circulation enhanced the ocean carbon storage through surface disequilibrium during glacials. Our results indicate that ocean circulation has played an important role in shaping the late Pleistocene ice ages through interaction with carbon cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105229"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phase shifts in precipitation isotope seasonality across East Asia track monsoon dynamics","authors":"Zhongyin Cai ,&nbsp;Rong Li ,&nbsp;Lide Tian ,&nbsp;Chenxi Xu ,&nbsp;Gabriel J. Bowen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Oxygen isotope records from various East Asian geological archives are vital tools for reconstructing past monsoon variations, yet their climatic interpretations remain the subject of considerable debate. While seasonality is inherently linked to monsoon patterns, a comprehensive understanding of precipitation δ¹⁸O (δ¹⁸O_p) seasonality across East Asia and its connection to monsoon activities has remained elusive. We present an integrative analysis combining observation-based monthly δ¹⁸O_p maps, isotope-enabled model simulations, and multi-year daily observations. Our results reveal three distinct modes of δ¹⁸O_p seasonality across East Asia, closely linked to the seasonal march and retreat of the monsoon. Specifically, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) serves as a primary source of isotopically enriched vapor due to suppressed convection in this high-pressure system. In conjunction with the northward progression of WPSH from spring to summer, the δ¹⁸O_p peak first appears in southern East Asia and subsequently shifts toward northern regions. In contrast, the southward retreat of WPSH in late summer and autumn leads to a secondary δ¹⁸O_p peak. The low δ¹⁸O_p values observed between these peaks reflect the progression of monsoon convection. These findings demonstrate that δ¹⁸O_p faithfully captures the seasonal dynamics of the East Asian Monsoon, offering a pathway to resolve ongoing debates regarding the interpretation of speleothem δ¹⁸O records. Furthermore, these insights highlight the potential of utilizing spatially distributed paleo δ¹⁸O_p records to uncover the timing and structure of past East Asian Monsoon variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105212"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145658149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ordovician climate changes in South China and implications for biotic turnover after the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE): Evidence from conodont δ18O thermometry","authors":"Kang Liu ,&nbsp;Maosheng Jiang ,&nbsp;Daizhao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate cooling has long been postulated as a primary trigger of the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE). However, the timing of the major pulse of GOBE strongly depends on geographical locations/latitudes, while reliable temporal correlation between climate perturbations and continent-specific biodiversity changes is still absent. Here, we present novel conodont-based <em>in-situ</em> oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O_apatite) datasets from the Huanghuachang section (i.e., the GSSP for the base of the Dapingian Stage) to reveal coeval climatic variations and their correlations with Ordovician biodiversity in South China. The new δ¹⁸O_apatite datasets from Huanghuachang, together with δ¹⁸O_apatite records published previously, congruently reveal a rapid − 0.6‰ δ¹⁸O_apatite shift (∼3 °C warming) followed by a + 0.9‰ δ¹⁸O_apatite increase (∼4 °C cooling) during the late Dapingian–early Darriwilian. Afterwards, another + 1.8‰ excursion (∼8 °C cooling) characterized the late Darriwilian–Sandbian interval. These δ¹⁸O_apatite shifts agree well with time-equivalent δ¹⁸O_apatite records worldwide, suggesting that they could reflect global climate signals. Furthermore, these δ¹⁸O_apatite shifts temporally match well with the paces of δ¹³C_carb excursions, indicating that the associated climate changes were linked to coeval marine carbon cycling. The temporal coincidence between the prominent biodiversity increase and gradual seawater temperature decrease during the Tremadocian–middle Dapingian confirms that climate cooling was a fundamental driver of GOBE in South China. However, the subsequent much more rapid climate warming-to-cooling fluctuation (∼ 7 °C/Myr) during the late Dapingian-early Darriwilian reversed the biodiversity change track to a decline channel, highlighting the vital role of change rate of temperate (climate) in biodiversity evolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105209"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145651161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Four decades of glacier changes in Karzok, Ladakh regulated by climatic and non-climatic drivers (1980–2023)","authors":"Mohit Prajapati ,&nbsp;Purushottam Kumar Garg ,&nbsp;Sandipan Mukherjee ,&nbsp;Supratim Guha ,&nbsp;Ashutosh Tiwari ,&nbsp;Ajay Kumar Taloor","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Long-term glacier monitoring provides critical insights into climate variability. This study presents a multi-temporal inventory for the Karzok Range, Ladakh, covering five massifs (Rulung, Chamser-Lungser, Gyama, Spangnak, and Pologongka) for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, 2014, and 2023; evaluates changes in glacier extent and assesses the influence of climatic (temperature and precipitation) and non-climatic (size, compactness, altitude, slope and aspect) factors on these changes. The Karzok region harbors 276 glaciers covering an area of 151.4 ± 9.3 km² which are predominantly small (71 %; &lt;0.5 km²). These originate (6632 m a.s.l.) as well as terminate (5349 m a.s.l.) at higher altitudes possessing mean altitude of 5922 m a.s.l. and characterized by relatively steep slope (25.2°). During 1980–2023, total deglaciation was 25.6 % (from 169.4 ± 7.7 km² to 125.4 ± 2.5 km²), with the greatest loss in Gyama (35.2 %) and the least in Chamser-Lungser (17.9 %). Glaciers with smaller size, lower mean elevation, narrower altitude bands, and steeper slopes showed higher deglaciation, while those at higher elevations with broader altitude ranges were more resilient. The aspect had limited influence, though south- and east-slopes were more deglaciation-prone. Compactness ratio (&gt;0.6) exerted negligible influence on deglaciation owing to predominance of low branching. Climate analysis (1950–2023) revealed significant warming (0.22 °C decade⁻¹), especially post-1980, with no consistent precipitation trend, signifying warming to be the primary driver of deglaciation. Overall, Karzok glaciers are in depletion phase, with pronounced intra-regional variability driven by topography. Ongoing and projected warming will likely speed up deglaciation, highlighting the need for systematic research to better manage Ladakh's water resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 105275"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145823505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}