Global and Planetary Change最新文献

{"title":"The decline in desert drift potential weakens aeolian dust emission","authors":"Tong Zhang ,&nbsp;Lianyou Liu ,&nbsp;Peijun Shi ,&nbsp;Gangfeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Rui Mao ,&nbsp;Xia Xu ,&nbsp;Zheng Fu ,&nbsp;Honglei Jiang ,&nbsp;Cuicui Shi ,&nbsp;Li Ma ,&nbsp;Zihui Zhao ,&nbsp;Jiaojiao Dong ,&nbsp;Yaoyao Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Near-surface wind speed (NSWS) is one of the most important factors shaping local terrain and geomorphological features, and its variations have significant environmental impacts, strongly influencing global dune dynamics and dust emissions. In recent years, the reduction in wind speed may have mitigated drought stress induced by rising temperatures, further weakening dust emissions. In this study, we present changes in global dust aerosol optical thickness (DOT) alongside variations in dust events, in response to alterations in desert regions associated with climate change. We find that global near-surface dust events (excluding Europe) declined annually from 2000 to 2023. Concurrently, the DOT in desert regions, specifically in the eastern Thar Desert, the Sahara Desert, and the Badain Jaran Desert, also decreased annually. This decline is primarily attributed to the reduced intensity of sand-moving wind regime in these areas, with drift potential (DP) decreasing by 37 %, 10 %, and 8 %, respectively. Additionally, dust activity has also diminished to varying degrees in parts of North Africa, Northeast Asia, South America, and Southern Africa. Finally, we project future changes in aeolian dust conditions in desert areas over the next three decades under the SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 scenarios. Under future simulation scenarios, the declining trend in DP is projected to intensify over the next three decades, with significant regional disparities. Notably, under the high emission scenario, the median DP of global deserts is projected to decrease by 1.1 m³ s⁻³ compared to the median under the medium emission scenario, with the reductions primarily occurring in the southern Sahara Desert and northeastern Australian deserts. Conversely, significant increases in DP are projected under high-emission scenarios in the Arabian Desert, Taklamakan Desert, and Gobi Desert. These changes are anticipated to heighten the risk of global dust events, which may be associated with large-scale ocean-atmosphere oscillations. Such projected changes will impact dune erosion and dust emissions, influencing urban and rural planning in desert regions and posing potential risks to human health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104844"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143865129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconstruction of Neogene circulation in Princess Elizabeth Trough, Southern Ocean – Indications for locations of carbon uptake in the past?","authors":"Gabriele Uenzelmann-Neben Dr.","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric CO₂ content has been discussed as one of the major factors influencing global climate. In the framework of the deep ocean forming the main reservoir of carbon dioxide, the Southern Ocean plays a crucial role in partitioning carbon between the atmosphere and the deep ocean. The processes resulting in the variability of atmospheric CO₂ and carbon uptake in the deep ocean have not yet been fully identified. Sedimentary structures imaged with seismic reflection data in Princess Elizabeth Trough, the deep water gateway between the Kerguelen Plateau and Prydz Bay, are interpreted regarding direction and intensity of pathways of deep/bottom water masses transported in gyres, eddies, and boundary currents to contribute to the knowledge on potential locations of carbon subsidence. Under the assumption that the general circulation scheme has been similar during the Neogene, i.e., driven by gyres, the positions and sizes of palaeo-gyres have been reconstructed, which, combined with information from ODP Leg 188 Sites 1165 and 1167, were then interpreted regarding the potential intensity of carbon uptake. This has been compared with published reconstructions of warming/cooling trends of the global climate. While the method applied is equivocal, it links observed sedimentary structures with the development of gyres, thus potential locations of carbon uptake. This way the presented reconstruction provides pieces to the climate variability puzzle, which can be tested using numerical simulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104840"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The unstable East Asian Summer Monsoon - ENSO relationship over the past 700 years","authors":"Jinfeng Luo ,&nbsp;Jun Hu ,&nbsp;Feng Zhu ,&nbsp;Risheng Liang ,&nbsp;Zeyu Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important modulator of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), but their teleconnection has been unstable during the instrumental era. Due to the short duration of instrumental records, we utilized paleoclimate records to investigate the EASM-ENSO teleconnection over the past 700 years. Building upon an established paleoclimate data assimilation method — the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework — that effectively fuses paleoclimate proxies and model simulations, we reconstructed seasonal sea surface temperature (SST), 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa wind, and summer precipitation fields in the tropical and mid-latitude regions. Our findings confirm the instability of the EASM-ENSO teleconnection, with transitions between positive and negative correlation periods linked to tropical SST patterns and the Western North Pacific Anticyclone (WNPA). We demonstrate that cooling in the Western North Pacific, rather than SST warming in the central and eastern Pacific, dominates the development of the WNPA, facilitating a positive EASM-ENSO teleconnection. Additionally, the tropical Indian Ocean SST shows no significant differences between positive and negative correlation periods, underscoring the critical influence of Western North Pacific SST. Our results demonstrate how the EASM and ENSO are interconnected and how their teleconnections changed during the past 700 years, providing insights for projecting future EASM changes and the EASM-ENSO teleconnection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104842"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Holocene sea level variations drive formation of a coral atoll in southern South China Sea","authors":"Wanqiu Zhou ,&nbsp;Gang Li ,&nbsp;Yun Luo ,&nbsp;Wen Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coral reef islands are highly vulnerable habitats to global warming. The projection of future coral reef evolution is challenging due to insufficient sedimentary records. In the southern South China Sea (SCS), numerous coral islands require a thorough understanding of their Holocene depositional history to inform predictive models. This study addresses this gap by determining the depositional history of Meiji Atoll through a detailed analysis of grain size and biological components from a new borehole, Well NK-1. Our results reveal that Unit 1 and Unit 4 with abundant corals and coralline algae, larger mean grain sizes and poor sorting, were classified as sand-apron facies. Unit 2, dominated by <em>Halimeda</em>, exhibits finer grains and the poorest sorting, suggesting deeper, more stagnant hydrodynamic conditions and lagoon expansion. Unit 3 and Unit 5 also contain abundant corals and coralline algae as well as more broken coral branches, showing reef flat facies with water depth under 1 m. Additionally, the coral reef's vertical growth accelerated when the Pleistocene surface was submerged by rising sea level approximately 8200 years before present (yr BP). This increase in vertical accretion was primarily driven by 8.2 ka and 7.5 ka meltwater pulses. However, a sea-level decline at 4800 yr BP triggered a shift from vertical accretion to lateral expansion, significantly impacting the island's geomorphology. These findings enhance our understanding of how reef deposition responded to sea-level changes during the Holocene, improving predictive models for the future of low-lying coral islands in the South China Sea and other tropical regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104835"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal patterns of pollen-based Holocene precipitation variations in the Altai Mountains and the surrounding areas","authors":"Yangyang Zhang ,&nbsp;Dongliang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The existing depictions of Holocene moisture variations in the Altai Mountains and the surrounding areas (i.e., the examined area) remain controversial. This study quantitatively reconstructed 16 mean annual precipitation (Pann) sequences from available fossil pollen datasets (3 sequences of our own and 13 sequences from external datasets) and combined them with 13 already available Pann sequences to depict the spatiotemporal patterns of the Holocene precipitation variations in the examined area. This resulting analysis reveals a general upward trend in Pann during the Holocene in the southern Altai Mountains and the immediate upper-wind region (e.g., southern Siberian Plain and eastern Kazakhstan Hills). This rising trend might be causally linked to the concurrent rising trend in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the long-term weakening trend of the cool airmass over southwestern Siberia. In contrast, the eastern Russian Altai and Sayan Mountains, situated on the leeside of the Altai Mountains, experienced a consistent decline in Pann since ∼9000 cal. yr BP. And, this decline was probably a combined result of the temperature anomalies in the middle-high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere and the SST in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean. The Holocene Pann in the lowlands to the south of the Altai Mountains displayed a rise from ∼10,500 to ∼6000 cal. yr BP, a U-shaped trough from ∼6000 to ∼3500 cal. yr BP, and a slight decline afterward. This pattern was most likely associated with the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean before ∼5000 cal. yr BP and with the SST in the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean after ∼5000 cal. yr BP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104832"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Mid-Piacenzian and future changes in South Asian precipitation under global warming” [Global and Planetary Change 248 (2025) 104760].","authors":"Xinquan Zhou,&nbsp;Chuanlian Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104829","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 104829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing susceptibility of vegetation productivity to compound drought from 2001 to 2020","authors":"Jiwang Tang ,&nbsp;Ben Niu ,&nbsp;Zhigang Hu ,&nbsp;Gang Fu ,&nbsp;Xianzhou Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric and soil droughts have exerted substantial effects on vegetation productivity, and generally occur simultaneously due to land-atmospheric feedback. However, the temporal changes in vegetation response to soil droughts, atmospheric droughts, and their compound droughts remain largely unknown. Using vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and two vegetation indexes including the leaf area index (LAI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), here we quantified the vegetation susceptibility to these three drought types via coincidence analysis and evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of them. Spatially, we found most of global vegetated areas (63.8 %) were more susceptible to compound droughts, with the higher vegetation susceptibility to them in the areas with less tree cover and more arid climate, respectively. Temporally, we revealed a predominated increasing trend (0.0027 year⁻¹ for LAI and 0.0023 year⁻¹ for SIF, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.05) in vegetation susceptibility to compound droughts over drought-susceptible regions during 2001–2020. Our finding highlighted an increasing ecosystem vulnerability to compound droughts, which could pose more threats on the stability of land carbon sink under future climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104826"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Applying historical records to extend the tropical cyclone climatology in southwestern Australia, 1830–2023","authors":"Joanna Aldridge ,&nbsp;Joseph Christensen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historical climatologies of tropical cyclones have been constructed for five of the Earth's seven tropical cyclone basins and this reappraisal for the southeastern Indian Ocean moves a step closer to completing a global compilation for the 19th and 20th centuries. The need for longer-term climatologies is especially pronounced in our case-study region in the southwest area of Western Australia, where TC Alby (1978) is unique as an example of an unpredictable, high-impact event in the era of modern satellite monitoring. We identify 29 events for a ∼ 130-year period preceding 1960. Based on this extended record, tropical cyclone frequencies are calculated over a range of timeframes and latitudinal ranges. The record is dominated by strong interdecadal variability, and no long-term trend in frequency was determined. While no severe (Australian Category 3 and above) tropical cyclones have made landfall in Perth or adjacent regional cities over the past ∼200 years, our results clearly show that southwestern Australia has a long history of tropical cyclone impacts, calling into question its classification within the Australian building code as a non-cyclonic region. This revised climatology provides a basis for development of and comparison with stochastic tropical cyclone hazard models and climate change trend analysis, with use cases across emergency management, prioritisation of mitigation investment, re/insurance risk pricing, wind and storm surge hazard assessment, and associated uses in building design and land use planning. These findings underline the value of historical records for understanding tropical cyclones in areas of marginal cyclone influence and/or where instrumental observations are available for only the past 50–60 years.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 104830"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143860418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood susceptibility assessment and mapping using GIS-based analytical hierarchy process and frequency ratio models","authors":"Saad Ashfaq ,&nbsp;Muhammad Tufail ,&nbsp;Asif Niaz ,&nbsp;Sher Muhammad ,&nbsp;Hassan Alzahrani ,&nbsp;Aqil Tariq","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, flood susceptibility maps were produced for district Nowshera by using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bivariate Statistical Frequency Ratio (FR) models. This study analyses twelve Hydro-geomorphological flood conditioning factors selected based on the scale and characteristics of the study area. These factors include elevation, slope, distance from the river, rainfall, drainage density, land use land cover (LULC), topographic wetness index (TWI), height above nearest drainage (HAND), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the road, curvature, and soil type. The weighted factors were then integrated using the weighted overlay technique in ArcGIS 10.8 to produce flood susceptibility maps, which were classified into five zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low susceptibility. The AHP model classified 145.1 km² (8.34 %) and 252.2 km² (14.49 %) of the area as very high and high flood susceptibility zones, respectively. While the FR model classified 94.6 km² (5.4 %) as very high and 230.5 km² (13.2 %) as high susceptibility zones. The models' results were validated using Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) Area Under Curve (AUC) and collected flood inventory. The calculated AUC values were 0.921 for the AHP model and 0.924 for the FR model, corresponding to accuracy of 92.1 % and 92.4 %, respectively. Through this study, we gained a deeper understanding of how hydro-geomorphological factors interact to influence flood susceptibility, emphasizing the importance of integrating multi-criteria and statistical approaches for accurate flood risk mapping. Our methodology provides a transferable framework that can be applied in diverse geographical contexts, aiding in flood mitigation planning for both data-rich and data-scarce regions worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104831"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mid-latitude climatic oscillation during the late Ediacaran ice age","authors":"Jiajun Wang ,&nbsp;Ruimin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhe Qi ,&nbsp;Shihao Fu ,&nbsp;Gang Wang ,&nbsp;Bing Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The enigmatic Ediacaran ice age bridged the extreme Cryogenian Snowball Earth glaciations and the Cambrian Explosion, and witnessed the emergence of the Ediacara biota, the earliest complex macroscopic life forms in Earth's history. However, due to the lack of precise geochronological and paleomagnetic data, the temporal and spatial distributions of Ediacaran glaciations remain controversial. It is unclear whether it was episodic or continuous, and local or global. In this study, we present convincing sedimentological evidence showing the advance and retreat of Ediacaran glaciation based on the study of Talisayi Formation in the Guozigou section, northwestern China. The intercalated sandstone, siltstone, mudstone, and especially ¹³C-enriched carbonates within the glacial deposits indicate that normal marine deposit and primary productivity persisted during the Ediacaran ice age. Furthermore, by compiling global Ediacaran glacial deposits, we identified five Ediacaran glacial depositions containing interglacial carbonate and three sections with multiple sets of glacial diamictite intercalated with normal marine deposition. These sedimentological observations argue episodic glacial wax and wane in low to mid latitude and bring up our hypothesize that the overlapping of glaciers zone and carbonate production zone during the Ediacaran ice age. The carbonate precipitation may either be the result of regional warming after glacial retreat or the consequence of high seawater alkalinity due to pervasive carbonate dissolution of glacier eroded or grinded carbonate platforms. Such climatic condition is consistent with the ‘Great Ediacaran ice age’ model, characterized by a continuous and mid-to-high-latitude glaciations. The prolonged Ediacaran ice age also implies an icehouse background for the evolution of Ediacaran biota and the emergence of early animals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55089,"journal":{"name":"Global and Planetary Change","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 104823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}