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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND IMPACT OF AN IMPERFECT VACCINE OF TWO STRAINS OF HEPATITIS B VIRUS INFECTION 两株乙型肝炎病毒感染不完善疫苗的敏感性分析及影响
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500158
J. Nayeem, C. Podder, M. Salek
{"title":"SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND IMPACT OF AN IMPERFECT VACCINE OF TWO STRAINS OF HEPATITIS B VIRUS INFECTION","authors":"J. Nayeem, C. Podder, M. Salek","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500158","url":null,"abstract":"A mathematical model considering two strains of hepatitis B virus (HBV) chronic carriers, to assess the impact of dose-structured imperfect vaccine, in a population, is designed and analyzed. The model is shown to have a locally and globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) whenever its associated reproduction number is numerically less than unity. Numerical analysis of the model shows that with the expected [Formula: see text] minimum efficacy of the first vaccine dose, vaccinating [Formula: see text] of the susceptible population with the first vaccine dose will be sufficient to effectively control the spread of hepatitis B infection. Such effective control can also be achieved if [Formula: see text] of the first vaccine dose recipients take the second dose. Threshold analysis reveals that an imperfect HBV vaccine should have positive or negative population-level effect. Latin hypercube sampling–PRCC analysis illustrates that disease transmission rate, birth rate, natural death rate and proportion of children born with maternal immunity are most influential parameters in the disease dynamics. In this paper, the sensitivity analysis based on mathematical and in addition statistical techniques have been performed to determine the significance of the model parameters. It is observed that a number of the parameters play an important role to determine the magnitude of the basic reproduction number. Sensitivity analysis is achieved to determine model parameters’ importance in disease dynamics. It is observed that the reproduction number is the most responsive quantity to the potent transmission rate of HBV and in addition also vital to control the spread of the disease.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41576014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
ON MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE TRANSMISSION OF GRAPEVINE LEAFROLL-ASSOCIATED VIRUS 3 BY THE VINE MEALYBUG, PLANOCOCCUS FICUS 葡萄粉蚧传播葡萄卷叶病毒3型的数学模型研究
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500092
M. Chapwanya, Erin Kenyon
{"title":"ON MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE TRANSMISSION OF GRAPEVINE LEAFROLL-ASSOCIATED VIRUS 3 BY THE VINE MEALYBUG, PLANOCOCCUS FICUS","authors":"M. Chapwanya, Erin Kenyon","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500092","url":null,"abstract":"Grapevine leafroll disease (GLD) is the most common and economically destructive grapevine viral disease in South African vineyards and throughout the world. There are many GLD-associated virus variants with Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) being the main causative agent of GLD. The vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus, is the most widespread and problematic vector of GLRaV-3. Roguing, pesticides and sanitary measures are common control strategies used in South African vineyards. In this paper, we propose an age-structured mathematical model for the transmission of (GLRaV-3) by Planococcus ficus in the South African context. The model is investigated in terms of the transmission thresholds and control strategies. A simplified model is used to shed light into the qualitative dynamics of transmission and assess the effectiveness of roguing as the main control strategy for GLRaV-3 spread.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44824450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
TIME OPTIMAL CONTROL STUDIES AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ADDITIONAL FOOD PROVIDED PREY–PREDATOR SYSTEMS INVOLVING HOLLING TYPE III FUNCTIONAL RESPONSE BASED ON QUALITY OF ADDITIONAL FOOD 基于附加食物质量的HOLLINGⅢ型捕食系统的时间最优控制与灵敏度分析
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500134
V. Ananth, D. Vamsi
{"title":"TIME OPTIMAL CONTROL STUDIES AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF ADDITIONAL FOOD PROVIDED PREY–PREDATOR SYSTEMS INVOLVING HOLLING TYPE III FUNCTIONAL RESPONSE BASED ON QUALITY OF ADDITIONAL FOOD","authors":"V. Ananth, D. Vamsi","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500134","url":null,"abstract":"Research on additional food provided prey–predator systems has gained prominence over the years due to its relevance in the context of biological conservation and pest management. Studies in this area suggest that the system can be driven to any desired state asymptotically with appropriate quality and quantity of additional food. In this paper, we study the controllability aspects to drive the system to the desired state in minimum (finite) time to make the outcomes practically more viable. We consider an additional food provided prey–predator system involving Holling type III functional response and study its controllability based on the quality of additional food, keeping the quantity fixed. To that end, we first analyze the dynamics of the system based on quality. Then, we formulate and study a time optimal control problem with the quality of additional food as the control parameter by proving the existence of optimal control and studying its characteristics. Finally, we illustrate the theoretical findings of the work using numerical simulations.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49569916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
BISTABILITY AND TRISTABILITY IN A PREDATOR–PREY MODEL WITH STRONG ALLEE EFFECT IN PREY 具有强ALLEE效应的捕食者-猎物模型的双稳态和三稳态
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500110
Ruma Kumbhakar, Saheb Pal, Nikhil Pal, Pankaj Tiwari
{"title":"BISTABILITY AND TRISTABILITY IN A PREDATOR–PREY MODEL WITH STRONG ALLEE EFFECT IN PREY","authors":"Ruma Kumbhakar, Saheb Pal, Nikhil Pal, Pankaj Tiwari","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500110","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the Allee effect on endangered species is crucial for ecological conservation and management as it highly affects the extinction of a population. Due to several ecological mechanisms accounting for the Allee effect, it is necessary to study the dynamics of a predator–prey model incorporating this phenomenon. In 1999, Cosner et al. [Effects of spatial grouping on the functional response of predators, Theor Popul Biol 56:65–75, 1999] derived a new kind of functional response by considering spatially grouped predators. This paper deals with the dynamical behavior of a predator–prey system with functional response proposed by Cosner et al., and the growth of the prey population suffers a strong Allee effect. We find that the system undergoes various types of bifurcations such as Hopf bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation. We also observe that the model exhibits bistability and two different types of tristability phenomena. Our findings reveal that for such a kind of multistability in ecological systems, the initial population size plays a crucial role and also impacts the system’s state in the long term.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46069510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
ON SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INTERACTING POPULATIONS 交互种群数学建模中的一些方法论问题
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500080
E. Venturino, Yuri Caridi, Vitória Dos Anjos, G. D'ancona
{"title":"ON SOME METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF INTERACTING POPULATIONS","authors":"E. Venturino, Yuri Caridi, Vitória Dos Anjos, G. D'ancona","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500080","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we focus on some important aspects of model building. The discussion specifically concerns the case of predator–prey interactions. We introduce here two models whose slight difference lies just in the way predators survive. In the former, they are taken to feed only on the modeled prey, i.e., to be specialists; in the second one, they are generalists, i.e., they can survive on other not explicitly modeled food resources. But our main focus is on the prey, that may disappear due to the Allee effect, if reduced to very low numbers. On the other hand, they also exhibit herd behavior. Our main aim is the discussion of the issues of mathematical modeling of such situation. We show on this example that modeling requires much more than equations patching from different systems. The analysis of the models indicates that the ecosystem may collapse in the case of specialist predators. If the predators have other feeding resources, they instead can thrive. Both types of models exhibit bistability between the prey-free state and coexistence.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45019435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL FOR A VECTOR-BORNE EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH MULTI-CLASS-AGE STRUCTURE AND HORIZONTAL TRANSMISSION 一类具有多类结构和水平传播的媒介传染病模型的全局动力学和最优控制
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500109
Shuangshuang Liang, Shengfu Wang, Lin Hu, L. Nie
{"title":"GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND OPTIMAL CONTROL FOR A VECTOR-BORNE EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH MULTI-CLASS-AGE STRUCTURE AND HORIZONTAL TRANSMISSION","authors":"Shuangshuang Liang, Shengfu Wang, Lin Hu, L. Nie","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500109","url":null,"abstract":"An age-structured vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission is proposed and studied in this paper, where the incubation ages of both host and vector and the immunity age of host are also introduced to consider the effects of multi-class-age structure. The reproductive number [Formula: see text] is derived as a threshold value to determine the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic steady states. Furthermore, by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals, the global threshold dynamics of this model is established by [Formula: see text], that is, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text], while if [Formula: see text] the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, considering the limited budget of the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) in the process of disease control, we present an optimal control problem with a fixed total expenditure, and discuss the existence of the most control strategy for this disease. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical results.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46771547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
HOPF BIFURCATION OF AN SEIRS MODEL WITH AGE STRUCTURE AND TIME DELAY 具有年龄结构和时滞的SEIRS模型的HOPF分支
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-26 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500122
Hui Cao, Mengmeng Han, Junyuan Yang, Lili Liu, Haiyan Li
{"title":"HOPF BIFURCATION OF AN SEIRS MODEL WITH AGE STRUCTURE AND TIME DELAY","authors":"Hui Cao, Mengmeng Han, Junyuan Yang, Lili Liu, Haiyan Li","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500122","url":null,"abstract":"Age structure and delay play a significant role in determining the dynamics of the diseases. In this paper, an SEIRS epidemic model with age structure and time delay is investigated, where the loss of the acquired immunity and delay are incorporated. Through some rigorous analyses, an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and some results about stability and instability of equilibria for the model are established. The findings show that the age structure and delay can produce Hopf bifurcation for an SEIRS model. The numerical examples are executed to illustrate the theoretical results.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47424355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF HIV/AIDS IN RISK STRUCTURED POPULATION 高危人群中HIV/AIDS传播动态的数学分析
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500018
Ashrafi M. Niger, C. Podder
{"title":"MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF HIV/AIDS IN RISK STRUCTURED POPULATION","authors":"Ashrafi M. Niger, C. Podder","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500018","url":null,"abstract":"A model for assessing the impact of key population at risk in spreading HIV/AIDS is designed. The model is shown to have a globally asymptotically stable (GAS) disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It has a unique GAS endemic equilibrium whenever reproduction number exceeds unity, if there is no back and forth movement in susceptible classes. It is shown that if infected individuals with high risk abandon their risky behavioral practices, then the disease burden will reduce. Furthermore, if infected individuals with low risk do not adopt risky behaviors then the transmission of the disease will decrease. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) indices are assessed using all the infection-related classes and basic reproduction number of the model. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results show that controlling the effective contact rate, disease-induced death rate in AIDS stage with low and high risk classes will help controlling the transmission of the disease.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49634529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
MODELING AND ANALYZING QUARANTINE STRATEGIES OF EPIDEMIC ON TWO-LAYER NETWORKS: GAME THEORY APPROACH 基于双层网络的传染病隔离策略建模与分析:博弈论方法
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2023-01-06 DOI: 10.1142/s021833902350002x
Rong-Ping Zhang, Boli Xie, Yun Kang, Maoxing Liu
{"title":"MODELING AND ANALYZING QUARANTINE STRATEGIES OF EPIDEMIC ON TWO-LAYER NETWORKS: GAME THEORY APPROACH","authors":"Rong-Ping Zhang, Boli Xie, Yun Kang, Maoxing Liu","doi":"10.1142/s021833902350002x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s021833902350002x","url":null,"abstract":"The quarantine strategy plays a crucial role in the prevention and control of infectious disease. In this paper, a two-layer network model coupling the transmission of infectious diseases and the dynamics of human behavior based on game theory is proposed. The basic reproduction number of the infectious disease in our proposed model is obtained by the next-generation matrix method and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is analyzed. Theoretical results show that the spread of infectious diseases can be controlled when the voluntary quarantined individuals reach a certain proportion. The sensitivities of the parameters are analyzed by simulations, and the results show that increasing propaganda can directly accelerate quarantine, and reducing the relative cost of quarantine has a significant effect on preventing the infectious diseases. Increasing the detection rate will lead to overestimating the proportion of undiagnosed infected individuals, and can also promote individuals to quarantine.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46254791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION OF THE INTERACTION AMONG AUTOREGULATION MECHANISMS REGULATING CEREBRAL BLOOD FLOW RATE IN SYSTOLIC HEART FAILURE 收缩期心力衰竭脑血流速率自动调节机制相互作用的计算模拟
IF 1.6 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1142/s0218339023500043
Surhan Bozkurt, U. E. Ayten
{"title":"COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATION OF THE INTERACTION AMONG AUTOREGULATION MECHANISMS REGULATING CEREBRAL BLOOD FLOW RATE IN SYSTOLIC HEART FAILURE","authors":"Surhan Bozkurt, U. E. Ayten","doi":"10.1142/s0218339023500043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339023500043","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, a lumped parameter model which includes systemic circulation, cerebral blood vessels, systemic arteriolar resistance control, heart rate control, cerebral autoregulation mechanisms and cerebral CO2 reactivity was developed to simulate healthy and heart failure conditions. In the healthy cardiovascular system model, the results were obtained with all control mechanisms connected to the model. Whilst heart failure cases were simulated, all control mechanisms were removed from the model. Then, cerebral autoregulation and cerebral CO2 reactivity mechanisms were connected to the model. Lastly, systemic arteriolar resistance and heart rate control mechanisms were connected to the model. Also, Monte Carlo Analysis was performed to determine the range of parameters controlled for simulations of healthy and heart failure conditions. The results showed that blood flow rate in cerebral circulation can be simulated more accurately by modeling interaction among autoregulatory mechanisms rather than studying separately.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43626726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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