AN AGE-STRUCTURED MODEL FOR PERTUSSIS TRANSMISSION WITH MULTIPLE INFECTIONS STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF CHILDHOOD DTAP AND ADOLESCENT TDAP VACCINES

IF 1.3 4区数学 Q3 BIOLOGY

Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2022-10-21 DOI:10.1142/s0218339022500280

Qing Han

引用次数: 1

Abstract

An age-structured deterministic model with multiple infections that accounts for decaying maternal antibody, waning infection-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity is formulated to study the transmission dynamics of pertussis and the effect of childhood DTaP and adolescent Tdap vaccines. The expression of the reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived for the ODE model in the case of proportionate mixing. Estimated age-dependent transmission probability and empirical contact data are used in the simulation of the ODE model from which the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is estimated to be around 15. The combination of DTaP and Tdap vaccines fails to bring [Formula: see text] under one and thus pertussis remains endemic despite sustained high coverage of vaccination. While both DTaP and Tdap vaccines have remarkable effect on reducing the incidences of the age groups being directly vaccinated, the adolescent booster dose Tdap is also found to provide some indirect protection for infants though very limited ([Formula: see text] incidence reduction).

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百日咳多重感染传播的年龄结构模型儿童DTAP和青少年TDAP疫苗效果的研究

为了研究百日咳的传播动力学以及儿童DTaP和青少年Tdap疫苗的效果，建立了一个具有多重感染的年龄结构确定性模型，该模型解释了母体抗体衰减、获得性感染减弱和疫苗诱导的免疫力。再现数的表达式[公式：见正文]是在比例混合的情况下为ODE模型推导的。在ODE模型的模拟中使用了估计的与年龄相关的传输概率和经验接触数据，根据该模型，基本繁殖数[公式：见正文]估计约为15。DTaP和Tdap疫苗的组合未能将[公式：见正文]纳入其中，因此尽管疫苗接种覆盖率持续较高，百日咳仍然是地方病。虽然DTaP和Tdap疫苗都能显著降低直接接种年龄组的发病率，但青少年加强剂量Tdap也能为婴儿提供一些间接保护，尽管非常有限（[公式：见正文]发病率降低）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Biological Systems 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Biological Systems is published quarterly. The goal of the Journal is to promote interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and in Medicine, and the study of biological situations with a variety of tools, including mathematical and general systems methods. The Journal solicits original research papers and survey articles in areas that include (but are not limited to): Complex systems studies; isomorphies; nonlinear dynamics; entropy; mathematical tools and systems theories with applications in Biology and Medicine. Interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and Medicine; transfer of methods from one discipline to another; integration of biological levels, from atomic to molecular, macromolecular, cellular, and organic levels; animal biology; plant biology. Environmental studies; relationships between individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems; bioeconomics, management of renewable resources; hierarchy theory; integration of spatial and time scales. Evolutionary biology; co-evolutions; genetics and evolution; branching processes and phyllotaxis. Medical systems; physiology; cardiac modeling; computer models in Medicine; cancer research; epidemiology. Numerical simulations and computations; numerical study and analysis of biological data. Epistemology; history of science. The journal will also publish book reviews.