Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health最新文献

{"title":"Inequalities in adolescent mental health and allocation of students to selective classes in comprehensive schools in Finland: a longitudinal study.","authors":"Heidi Kesanto-Jokipolvi, Mari Siipola, Satu Koivuhovi, Terhi Pasu, Piia Seppänen, Arja Rimpelä","doi":"10.1136/jech-2023-221854","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2023-221854","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Lower socioeconomic positions (SEP) and poor academic achievement increase children's risk for mental health problems. The Finnish education system is officially non-selective and unified, but a part of children can be selected into emphasised teaching classes by aptitude tests, which are known to segregate students by SEP and academic achievement. We study here if allocation of students to mainstream and selective classes segregates students by mental health, too.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Students from primary school (6th grade) were followed to lower secondary school (7th grade). The number in selective classes was n=209 and in mainstream classes n=551. Outcomes were depressed mood, anxiety and daily health complaints. Association between class type and the outcomes was analysed by cross-tabulation and logistic regression models. Gender, academic achievement, SEP and previous mental health were independent and confounding/moderating variables.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Students in selective classes had better academic achievement and higher SEP compared with students in mainstream classes. Girls reported poorer mental health than boys. Depressive mood did not vary by class type, but anxiety and daily health complaints were more common among girls in mainstream classes. When academic achievement and background factors were considered, among girls only anxiety was more common in mainstream classes, but among boys, anxiety appeared to be statistically significantly more common in selective classes.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Grouping students by aptitude tests to different classes may select them by mental health, too. Longer follow-up and gender-specific studies would give more reliable answers for education policy makers about student grouping by aptitude test and its effects on segregation.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142395404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Overall and race-specific associations between state-level minimum wage policy and food insecurity in the United States.","authors":"Sophia L Freije, Maeve Wallace, M Pia Chaparro","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222350","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222350","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In the USA, states can set higher minimum wages than the federal government. We investigated the association between state minimum wages and racial/ethnic inequities in food insecurity.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Household-level food insecurity and sociodemographic data were obtained from the cross-sectional Current Population Survey 2015-2019 (n=189 665 households) and merged by state and year with minimum wage and cost-of-living data obtained from the US Department of Labor and US Bureau of Economic Analysis, respectively. We fitted Poisson regression models with robust standard errors with 12-month or 30-day household food insecurity as the outcome, and minimum wage or inflation-adjusted minimum wage (ie, real wage) as the predictor, adjusting for cost of living, sociodemographic covariates and state fixed-effects. We tested interactions between minimum wage and race/ethnicity and ran race/ethnicity-stratified models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In adjusted models, the real wage was not associated with 12-month or 30-day food insecurity. Minimum wage was associated with 5% lower prevalence rate of 12-month food insecurity (PR 0.95, 95% CI=0.93 to 0.98) and 7% lower prevalence rate of 30-day food insecurity (PR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.96) for all households. The interaction p values for race/ethnicity with real wage and minimum wage were p<0.001. In stratified models, results were statistically significant for minimum wage and 12-month food insecurity among non-Hispanic (NH) white households (PR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96) and Hispanic households (PR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.98), and minimum wage and 30-day food insecurity among NH white (PR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.96), NH black (PR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.99) and Hispanic (PR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95) households.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Higher state-level minimum wages, but not real wages, were associated with lower food insecurity prevalence overall and for racial/ethnic subgroups.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142367496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in food habits during the transition to retirement: the Whitehall II cohort study.","authors":"Hanna Lagström, Mirkka Lahdenperä, Chirsna Ravyse, Tasnime Akbaraly, Mika Kivimaki, Jaana Pentti, Sari Stenholm, Jenny Head","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222690","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The transition to retirement is a significant turning point in life, which may lead to changes in food habits.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To examine changes in red meat, fish, vegetables and fruit consumption during the retirement transition and whether these changes vary between sociodemographic groups.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The data were from the Whitehall II study, a cohort of 10 308 British civil servants aged 35-55 years at study induction (1985-1988). Data collection has taken place every 2-3 years. Food consumption (n=2484-2491) was assessed with the Food Frequency Questionnaire in the periods before (max. 16 years) and after retirement (max. 16 years). Changes in preretirement and postretirement consumption were compared in the total cohort and subgroups by sex, marital status, preretirement occupation status and financial hardship using linear regression analyses with generalised estimating equations.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Weekly red meat consumption was stable before retirement but increased after retirement (p=0.02), especially among women, single and lower occupational status participants. Fish consumption increased during the follow-up and the increase was steeper before retirement than postretirement period (p=0.02). Vegetable and fruit consumption also increased during the entire follow-up, but more strongly during preretirement than postretirement period (p<0.001 for both).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The transition to retirement is accompanied by favourable (increase in fruit, vegetable and fish) and unfavourable (increase in red meat) dietary changes, varied to some extent by sex, marital status and preretirement occupational status. Our findings suggest that attention should be paid to this transitional phase to promote eating habits in accordance with the recommendations for retirement.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142367494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local area crime and alcohol consumption: longitudinal evidence from Australia.","authors":"Rejoice E A Churchill, Isaac Koomson, Sefa Awaworyi Churchill","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222470","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Alcohol misuse is a major public health issue. Understanding factors that contribute to alcohol misuse or risky drinking behaviour is important for policy. This study examined if crime rates in the neighbourhood (postcode) where a person lives influences their likelihood of engaging in risky drinking behaviour. We further explored social capital and mental health as channels through which neighbourhood crime influences risky drinking behaviour.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using 18 waves of household longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey for the period 2002 to 2019 merged with official police statistics on neighbourhood crime rates, we adopted fixed-effect regression models that allow us to address concerns relating to endogenous sorting of participants as well as omitted variable bias.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We find that an increase in neighbourhood crime is associated with an increase in the likelihood of risky drinking (OR=1.107, 95% CI 1.073 to 1.120), alcohol expenditure (<i>b</i>=0.063, 95% CI 0.041 to 0.076), alcohol consumption frequency (<i>b</i>=0.071, 95% CI 0.055 to 0.083) and quantity (<i>b</i>=0.046, 95% CI 0.032 to 0.052). We present exploratory evidence that social capital and mental health mediate the relationship between neighbourhood crime and alcohol use. Specifically, our results suggest that by eroding the level of trust and decreasing mental health, neighbourhood crime tends to increase the probability that people engage in risky alcohol behaviour.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our findings suggest that targeting crime and in particular the channels through which crime influences risky alcohol behaviour (ie, trust and mental health) can be instrumental in addressing alcohol misuse.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142367495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differences by ethnicity in the association between unpaid caring and health trajectories over 10 years in the UK Household Longitudinal Study.","authors":"Whitney Wells, Baowen Xue, Rebecca Lacey, Anne McMunn","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222633","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Unpaid carers deliver critical social care. We aimed to examine differences by ethnicity in (1) profiles of unpaid caring and (2) associations between caring and physical and mental health trajectories.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used 10 waves of data from 47 015 participants from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-2020). Our outcomes were 12-item Short Form Health Survey physical and mental component scores. We performed bivariate comparison of profiles of caring by ethnicity. We used multilevel linear mixed effects models to estimate associations between caring and health trajectories and assess for heterogeneity by ethnicity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We found that caring profiles differed by ethnicity. The proportion caring for someone within their household ranged from 39.7% of White carers to 70.1% of Pakistani and 74.8% of Bangladeshi carers. The proportion providing 20+ hours/week of care ranged from 26.9% of White carers to 40.6% of Pakistani and 43.3% of Black African carers. Ethnicity moderated associations between caring and physical but not mental health trajectories (test for interaction: p=0.038, p=0.75). Carers showed worse physical health compared with non-carers among Black African (-1.93; -3.52, -0.34), Bangladeshi (-2.01; -3.25, -0.78), Indian (-1.30; -2.33, -0.27) and Pakistani carers (-1.16; -2.25, -0.08); Bangladeshi carers' trajectories converged with non-carers over time (0.24; -0.02, 0.51). White carers showed better baseline physical health than non-carers (0.35; 0.10, 0.60), followed by worsening trajectories versus non-carers (-0.14; -0.18, -0.10).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>There are differences by ethnicity in profiles of caring and associations between caring and physical health trajectories. Future research should account for ethnicity to ensure applicability across groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142332653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Six-year change in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T with subsequent stroke risk in the general population.","authors":"Qiguo Meng, Xiaoqin Gan, Cheng Zu, Yuanyuan Zhang, Panpan He, Ziliang Ye, Xinyue Su, Yuanxiu Wei, Xianhui Qin","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222517","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The association between change in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and stroke risk in the general population remains unknown. We aimed to assess the association of a 6-year change in hs-cTnT with incident stroke and its subtypes in the general American adult population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>8675 middle-aged adults without prevalent cardiovascular disease from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study were included. Hs-cTnT was measured at two time points (visits 2 and 4), 6 years apart. The relative percentage change of hs-cTnT was defined as hs-cTnT at visit 4 minus that at visit 2, divided by hs-cTnT at visit 2. The study outcome was incident stroke and its subtypes. All data were analysed in 2023.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over a median follow-up of 20.1 years, 682 incident strokes occurred, including 593 ischaemic and 89 haemorrhagic strokes. For absolute change, using low/low group as reference category, the low/high (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.02) and high/high (adjusted HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.34) groups were associated with higher risk of stroke. Moreover, the relative percentage change in hs-cTnT with stroke followed an inverted L-shaped association, levelling off at about 75% increase in hs-cTnT (P for nonlinearity=0.009). Compared with those with ≤50% change in hs-cTnT, participants with >50% increase in hs-cTnT had a higher risk of stroke (adjusted HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.64). Similar results were found for ischaemic stroke. No significant association was found for haemorrhagic stroke.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Temporal increase in hs-cTnT was associated with a higher risk of incident total and ischaemic stroke in the general population.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142301296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Redlining in New York City: impacts on particulate matter exposure during pregnancy and birth outcomes.","authors":"Teresa Herrera, Eunsil Seok, Whitney Cowell, Eric Brown, Sheryl Magzamen, Ako Adams Ako, Rosalind J Wright, Leonardo Trasande, Robin Ortiz, Annemarie Stroustrup, Akhgar Ghassabian","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222134","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Evidence suggests historical redlining shaped the built environment and health outcomes in urban areas. Only a handful of studies have examined redlining's association with air pollution and adverse birth outcomes in New York City (NYC). Additionally, no NYC-specific studies have examined the impact of redlining on birth weight.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This longitudinal cohort study analysed data from the National Institute of Health Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes Programme to investigate the extent to which maternal residence in a historically redlined neighbourhood is associated with fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure during pregnancy using multivariable regression models. Additionally, we examined how maternal residence in a historically redlined neighbourhood during pregnancy influenced birth weight z-score, preterm birth and low birth weight.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our air pollution model showed that living in a historically redlined census tract or an ungraded census tract was associated with increased PM_2.5 exposure during pregnancy. We also found living in a historically redlined census tract or an ungraded census tract was associated with a lower birth weight z-score. This finding remained significant when controlling for individual and census tract-level race, ethnicity and income. When we controlled PM_2.5 in our models assessing the relationship between redlining grade and birth outcome, our results did not change.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Our study supports the literature linking redlining to contemporary outcomes. However, our research in ungraded tracts suggests redlining alone is insufficient to fully explain inequality in birth outcomes and PM_2.5 levels today.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142146846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of early childhood infection on child development and school performance: a population-based study.","authors":"Wen-Qiang He, Hannah Catherine Moore, Jessica E Miller, David P Burgner, Olivia Swann, Samantha J Lain, Natasha Nassar","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2024-222040","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Childhood infection might be associated with adverse child development and neurocognitive outcomes, but the results have been inconsistent.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Two population-based record-linkage cohorts of all singleton children born at term in New South Wales, Australia, from 2001 to 2014, were set up and followed up to 2019 for developmental outcome (N=276 454) and school performance (N=644 291). The primary outcome was developmentally high risk (DHR) at age 4-6 years and numeracy and reading below the national minimum standard at age 7-9 years. Cox regression was used to assess the association of childhood infection ascertained from hospital records with each outcome adjusting for maternal, birth and child characteristics, and sensitivity analyses were conducted assessing E-values and sibling analysis for discordant exposure.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A higher proportion of children with an infection-related hospitalisation were DHR (10.9% vs 8.7%) and had numeracy (3.7% vs 2.7%) and reading results (4.3% vs 3.1%) below the national minimum standard, compared with those without infection-related hospitalisation. In the multivariable analysis, children with infection-related hospitalisation were more likely to be DHR (adjusted HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.15) and have numeracy (adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.26) and reading results (adjusted HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.20) below the national minimum standard. However, these results may be impacted by unmeasured confounding, based on E-values of 1.48-1.74, and minimal association with education outcome was found in the sibling analysis.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Infection-related hospitalisation was modestly associated with adverse child development and school performance, but the association may be explained by shared familial factors, particularly in those with most socioeconomic disadvantages.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142114906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intergenerational transmission of health inequalities: towards a life course approach to socioeconomic inequalities in health - a review.","authors":"Tanja A J Houweling, Ilona Grünberger","doi":"10.1136/jech-2022-220162","DOIUrl":"10.1136/jech-2022-220162","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Adult health inequalities are a persistent public health problem. Explanations are usually sought in behaviours and environments in adulthood, despite evidence on the importance of early life conditions for life course outcomes. We review evidence from a broad range of fields to unravel to what extent, and how, socioeconomic health inequalities are intergenerationally transmitted.We find that transmission of socioeconomic and associated health (dis)advantages from parents to offspring, and its underlying structural determinants, contributes substantially to socioeconomic inequalities in adult health. In the first two decades of life-from conception to early adulthood-parental socioeconomic position (SEP) and parental health strongly influence offspring adult SEP and health. Socioeconomic and health (dis)advantages are largely transmitted through the same broad mechanisms. Socioeconomic inequalities in the fetal environment contribute to inequalities in fetal development and birth outcomes, with lifelong socioeconomic and health consequences. Inequalities in the postnatal environment-especially the psychosocial and learning environment, physical exposures and socialisation-result in inequalities in child and adolescent health, development and behavioural habits, with health and socioeconomic consequences tracking into adulthood. Structural factors shape these mechanisms in a socioeconomically patterned and time-specific and place-specific way, leading to distinct birth-cohort patterns in health inequality.Adult health inequalities are for an important part intergenerationally transmitted. Effective health inequality reduction requires addressing intergenerational transmission of (dis)advantage by creating societal circumstances that allow all children to develop to their full potential.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":"641-649"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11420752/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141494331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Implications of child poverty reduction targets for public health and health inequalities in England: a modelling study between 2024 and 2033.","authors":"Ronan McCabe, Roxana Pollack, Philip Broadbent, Rachel M Thomson, Erik Igelström, Anna Pearce, Clare Bambra, Davara Lee Bennett, Alexiou Alexandros, Konstantinos Daras, David Taylor-Robinson, Benjamin Barr, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi","doi":"10.1136/jech-2024-222313","DOIUrl":"10.1136/jech-2024-222313","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>We investigated the potential impacts of child poverty (CP) reduction scenarios on population health and health inequalities in England between 2024 and 2033.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We combined aggregate local authority-level data with published and newly created estimates on the association between CP and the rate per 100 000 of infant mortality, children (aged <16) looked after, child (aged <16) hospitalisations for nutritional anaemia and child (aged <16) all-cause emergency hospital admissions. We modelled relative, absolute (per 100 000) and total (per total population) annual changes for these outcomes under three CP reduction scenarios between 2024 and 2033-<i>low-ambition</i> (15% reduction), <i>medium-ambition</i> (25% reduction) and <i>high-ambition</i> (35% reduction)-compared with a baseline CP scenario (15% increase). Annual changes were aggregated between 2024 and 2033 at national, regional and deprivation (IMD tertiles) levels to investigate inequalities.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All CP reduction scenarios would result in substantial improvements to child health. Meeting the <i>high-ambition</i> reduction would decrease total cases of infant mortality (293; 95% CI 118 to 461), children looked after (4696; 95% CI 1987 to 7593), nutritional anaemia (458, 95% CI 336 to 574) and emergency admissions (32 650; 95% CI 4022 to 61 126) between 2024 and 2033. Northern regions (eg, North East) exhibited the greatest relative and absolute benefit. The most deprived tertile would experience the largest relative, absolute and total benefit; under <i>high-ambition</i> reduction, total infant mortality cases were predicted to fall by 126 (95% CI 51 to 199) in the most deprived tertile compared with 71 (95% CI 29 to 112) in the least between 2024 and 2033.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Achieving reductions in CP could substantially improve child health and reduce health inequalities in England.</p>","PeriodicalId":54839,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health","volume":" ","pages":"632-640"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11420728/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}