Local area crime and alcohol consumption: longitudinal evidence from Australia.

Background: Alcohol misuse is a major public health issue. Understanding factors that contribute to alcohol misuse or risky drinking behaviour is important for policy. This study examined if crime rates in the neighbourhood (postcode) where a person lives influences their likelihood of engaging in risky drinking behaviour. We further explored social capital and mental health as channels through which neighbourhood crime influences risky drinking behaviour.

Methods: Using 18 waves of household longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey for the period 2002 to 2019 merged with official police statistics on neighbourhood crime rates, we adopted fixed-effect regression models that allow us to address concerns relating to endogenous sorting of participants as well as omitted variable bias.

Results: We find that an increase in neighbourhood crime is associated with an increase in the likelihood of risky drinking (OR=1.107, 95% CI 1.073 to 1.120), alcohol expenditure (b=0.063, 95% CI 0.041 to 0.076), alcohol consumption frequency (b=0.071, 95% CI 0.055 to 0.083) and quantity (b=0.046, 95% CI 0.032 to 0.052). We present exploratory evidence that social capital and mental health mediate the relationship between neighbourhood crime and alcohol use. Specifically, our results suggest that by eroding the level of trust and decreasing mental health, neighbourhood crime tends to increase the probability that people engage in risky alcohol behaviour.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that targeting crime and in particular the channels through which crime influences risky alcohol behaviour (ie, trust and mental health) can be instrumental in addressing alcohol misuse.