Ocean & Coastal Management最新文献

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Independent operation or coordinated integration? Enhancing the system resilience of ports in dealing with congestion based on a bilateral bargaining game 独立运营还是协调整合?基于双边讨价还价博弈,增强港口在应对拥堵时的系统弹性
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107437
Jihong Chen , Tingfang Li , Huida Zhao
{"title":"Independent operation or coordinated integration? Enhancing the system resilience of ports in dealing with congestion based on a bilateral bargaining game","authors":"Jihong Chen ,&nbsp;Tingfang Li ,&nbsp;Huida Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107437","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fierce competition between ports may trigger substantial issues including port congestion, further wreaking havoc on the system resilience of ports. The coordinated integration of ports becomes a feasible and indispensable strategy for mitigating competitive pressure and enhancing the system resilience. In a two-tier supply chain within trade activities between two adjacent ports, we discuss the competitive and cooperative strategy selections between ports by a bilateral bargaining game to investigate how to improve the system resilience of ports in coping with congestion. The results reveal that port cooperation has the advantage of improving throughput and the system resilience of ports by alleviating port congestion, but becomes more challenging as the advantageous port's bargaining power and competitive intensity increase. Although under the pressure of high freight rates, shipping companies are still willing to actively participate in and promote the coordinated integration of ports for a premium service provided by ports. From the overall shipping supply chain, port cooperation optimizes the entire operation of port system and promotes profits from the high system resilience, demonstrating a better environmental performance by dealing with congestion. In light of the conclusions, it is essential to vigorously establish a port-port alliance through coordinated contracts to tackle congestion and enhance resilience, thereby boosting competitiveness and ensuring profitability in the whole system of ports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107437"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analysis of contemporary climate adaptation policies in Ireland and their application to the coastal zone 分析爱尔兰当代气候适应政策及其在沿海地区的应用
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107404
Paul Lawlor , J.A.G. Cooper
{"title":"Analysis of contemporary climate adaptation policies in Ireland and their application to the coastal zone","authors":"Paul Lawlor ,&nbsp;J.A.G. Cooper","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global climate change presents a range of impacts on Ireland's economy and society with particular challenges facing coastal areas. The need to adapt to these risks is considered both urgent and essential and the policy framework has evolved to meet these challenges with the adoption of climate action legislation and a National Adaptation Framework (NAF) to facilitate the transition to a climate-resilient economy and society by 2050. This paper briefly reviews the European and Irish government policy context for sectoral climate adaptation before reviewing and classifying the sectoral policy measures introduced to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. While the analysis reveals that progress has been made by adopting climate action legislation and by developing a suite of climate action focussed plans, it also demonstrates that the policy measures included in the Sectoral Adaptation Plans to reduce climate change vulnerabilities are limited in number and lacking in effectiveness. Furthermore, their application to cross-cutting themes, exemplified by the coast, is inadequate to deal with the practical climate change issues. These findings indicate that Ireland is at a preliminary stage when assessed according to the EU adaptation preparedness scorecard.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107404"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A fuzzy bayesian quantitative risk assessment for language and communication induced accidents in maritime operations 海上作业中语言和通信诱发事故的模糊贝叶斯定量风险评估
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107449
Jingbo Yin , Rafi Ullah Khan , Muhammad Afzaal , R. Nawaz , Xiao Shanshan , Arshad Jamal
{"title":"A fuzzy bayesian quantitative risk assessment for language and communication induced accidents in maritime operations","authors":"Jingbo Yin ,&nbsp;Rafi Ullah Khan ,&nbsp;Muhammad Afzaal ,&nbsp;R. Nawaz ,&nbsp;Xiao Shanshan ,&nbsp;Arshad Jamal","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Language and communication issues pose a formidable risk to maritime safety. In maritime transportation, the effectiveness of speech acts and closed-loop communication is vulnerable to a wide array of factors. However, literature quantifying the impact of these factors on language and communication-induced accident risk is scarce. To that end, this study conducts a holistic quantitative risk assessment for the language and communication issues induced accidents in maritime transportation. The methodology consists of employing expert judgments, past literature, and accident reports to identify causation factors and a Fuzzy Bayesian approach to risk analysis. Bidirectionally propagated inferential analysis was conducted to determine the impact of factors under consideration in various scenarios. Lack of language proficiency and violations of the roles and regulations of communication were identified as prominent accident causation factors. Simultaneous evidence-setting analysis was conducted to determine the domino effect of the causation factors. A sensitivity analysis was performed to reveal the most critical factors causing language and communication issues induced accident risk. This study unravels the nuanced dynamics of language-related risk in maritime safety. The findings of this study can be used to propose guidelines and policies for effective communication and hence safer maritime operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107449"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tracing offshore marine ecosystem asset changes based on physical accounting: A case of Xiamen Sea Area 基于物理核算的近海海洋生态系统资产变化追踪:厦门海域案例
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107420
Junbo Wang , Benrong Peng , Lingfeng Huang , Keliang Chen
{"title":"Tracing offshore marine ecosystem asset changes based on physical accounting: A case of Xiamen Sea Area","authors":"Junbo Wang ,&nbsp;Benrong Peng ,&nbsp;Lingfeng Huang ,&nbsp;Keliang Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing temporal and spatial changes in marine ecosystem assets is critical for the capitalized management of natural resources and their contribution to human well-being. However, quantifying these changes using different inclusion methods in the <em>System National Account</em> is a challenge. Ecosystem accounting has become a popular topic in recent years, particularly after <em>the System of Environmental and Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting</em> was published in 2021. However, few practical studies have been conducted on offshore marine ecosystem accounting, including marine ecosystem assets and services. This study provides a systematic framework to prioritize the assessment of offshore marine ecosystem assets (extent and condition) in physical terms, including the determined indicators of physical accounts and the presentation of accounting results. We then used this framework to assess marine ecosystem assets in the Xiamen Sea Area selected from 2006 to 2020. The results show that: (a) The extent of the marine ecosystem in Xiamen decreased by 8.34% from 349.64 km<sup>2</sup> to 320.49 km<sup>2</sup>, mainly caused by converting intertidal ecosystem into the land due to the demand for urban and industrial use sea. (b) The area of intertidal vegetation habitats (mangroves and salt marshes) increased from 23.22 hm<sup>2</sup> to 132.2 hm<sup>2</sup>, with an increase of 4.7 times. The results also show that the restoration of the marine ecology in Xiamen has achieved remarkable results. (c) The marine ecosystem condition comprehensive index in Xiamen increased by 3.13% from 0.32 to 0.33. This shows that the marine ecosystem conditions in Xiamen remain well and have even slightly improved under the pressure of a rapidly developing economy and increasing population. This study provides practical technical methods for assessing offshore marine ecosystem in physical term to support integrated coastal management in coastal cities, and is important for assessing marine ecosystem services in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107420"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A game-based decision-making method for multi-ship collaborative collision avoidance reflecting risk attitudes in open waters 基于游戏的多船协同避碰决策方法,反映开放水域的风险态度
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107450
Jiongjiong Liu , Jinfen Zhang , Zaili Yang , Mingyang Zhang , Wuliu Tian
{"title":"A game-based decision-making method for multi-ship collaborative collision avoidance reflecting risk attitudes in open waters","authors":"Jiongjiong Liu ,&nbsp;Jinfen Zhang ,&nbsp;Zaili Yang ,&nbsp;Mingyang Zhang ,&nbsp;Wuliu Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107450","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To accurately reflect risk attitudes towards ship intentions in multi-ship encounters, this paper develops a novel two-stage collaborative collision avoidance decision-making (CADM) model by incorporating intention prediction and real-time decision-making. We acquire prior knowledge of risk attitudes by analyzing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and further estimate the probability distributions of encountering ship's risk attitude using Bayesian reasoning. By treating collision avoidance procedure as a static game with incomplete information, a predictive model for collision avoidance intentions is developed by taking account into risk attitude probabilities. Real-time decisions are then implemented according to different stages, and a collaborative CADM model is established by a game-decision cycle. Finally, a multi-ship encounter scenario is simulated under all combinations of risk attitudes, and the results are compared with those obtained under complete information. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can formulate avoidance actions that meet safety requirements under all combinations of risk attitudes. Further comparison with complete information proves the effectiveness of the risk attitude probability model, which is conducive to improving the decision-making flexibility and reducing complexity. The research findings enhance the collaborative decision-making, contributing to the development of autonomous navigation in open waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107450"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of failure on energy efficiency in maritime vessels autopilot systems 船舶自动驾驶系统故障对能源效率的影响
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107451
Hürol Hocek , Devran Yazır , Cemalettin Aygün , Ünal Özdemir
{"title":"The effect of failure on energy efficiency in maritime vessels autopilot systems","authors":"Hürol Hocek ,&nbsp;Devran Yazır ,&nbsp;Cemalettin Aygün ,&nbsp;Ünal Özdemir","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing demands for energy efficiency and environmental sustainability in the maritime industry have underscored the critical importance of optimizing autopilot systems, which, despite their significance, are often overlooked in ship energy efficiency management. The objective of this study is to enhance the energy efficiency of ships by focusing on the efficiency of autopilot systems, which play a significant role in the management of energy efficiency. The research emphasizes the need for effective decision support systems for ship operators, not only for optimizing ship speeds but also for making informed operational decisions. By utilizing Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA), the study identifies and prioritizes the causes of efficiency losses in autopilot systems and examines their frequency. Based on expert opinions, the research delves into the complexity of autopilot systems and the interactions among various components. Notably, the study highlights the impact of multiple factors on the efficiency of complex autopilot systems, elucidating their relationships through Minimum Cut Sets (MCS) analysis. Furthermore, attention was drawn to the “Improper Alarm Input” event caused by insufficient knowledge and awareness among ship operators, which hinders the effective use of autopilot systems. The findings demonstrate that decision support systems can increase energy efficiency and contribute to the reduction of operational errors by reducing the human factor, which is 99% effective on the “Inefficient Heading Control System”. Additionally, proper utilization of autopilot systems can lead to a decrease in a ship's carbon footprint and operating costs. Overall, the results can affect strategic decisions in ship energy efficiency management and encourage significant steps toward achieving International Maritime Organization's (IMO) sustainability objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107451"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying community practices in marine benthic data usage in Florida 确定佛罗里达州使用海洋底栖生物数据的社区做法
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107429
Xiaohui Qiao , Vincent Lecours , Anna E. Braswell , Joy E. Hazell
{"title":"Identifying community practices in marine benthic data usage in Florida","authors":"Xiaohui Qiao ,&nbsp;Vincent Lecours ,&nbsp;Anna E. Braswell ,&nbsp;Joy E. Hazell","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107429","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107429","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A significant proportion of Florida's population lives on the coast and is directly impacted by alterations to the coastal zone, weather disasters (<em>e.g.</em>, hurricanes, erosion, flooding), or changes to ecosystem services. Data collected in Florida waters (including water quality, habitat health, bathymetry, and fisheries data) are important for the maintenance of coastal waters, communities, and ecosystems. Yet benthic data collected by a variety of stakeholders are often not shared or openly available, with little metadata to ease data reuse, and are often stored in incompatible formats. To assess the needs of government agencies, private companies, academic researchers, and data managers, we conducted a survey and organized an expert focus group to determine the current state of coastal and marine data usage and distribution in Florida. Through the survey, we asked participants to describe the types of data they use or collect, how they use that data, what limitations they encounter with data sharing, how and when they share their data, and what sorts of metadata standards they use in their work. We determined that many data producers and users are unaware of data standards and often do not follow best management practices for data collection and sharing. The sector of activity of the individual respondent (government, academic, non-profit) determined how data users were interacting with or collecting data and what standards they followed when sharing data. Our expert panel largely echoed our findings, with consistent, well-documented, and standardized datasets being the most important components for data integration in projects. To advance accessibility and reusability of benthic data, our project highlights the need for additional training of stakeholders on data standardization, collaboration and integration, which needs to be applied across institutions. A major need that was identified is tools that make data sharing and metadata creation easier and more efficient.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107429"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Study of tropical cyclone wave characteristics based on a hybrid track clustering method 基于混合轨迹聚类法的热带气旋波浪特征研究
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107448
Jiaqian Li , Zhuxiao Shao , Bingchen Liang , Huijun Gao
{"title":"Study of tropical cyclone wave characteristics based on a hybrid track clustering method","authors":"Jiaqian Li ,&nbsp;Zhuxiao Shao ,&nbsp;Bingchen Liang ,&nbsp;Huijun Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107448","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107448","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the activity and wave characteristics of different TC track types with different formation mechanisms is crucial for coastal and ocean engineering. In this study, a hybrid clustering method based on track indicators representing track shape and influence region is proposed to classify 721 TC tracks along the coast of China into three track types. Due to the intrinsic similarity of track indicators diagnosed by the self-organizing map method, the initial clustering centroid selection of <em>K</em>-means method is reasonable. 5000 clustering trials show that the clustering results are more robust than those of the traditional <em>K</em>-means method, and the average difference percentage decreases from 11.3% to 5.5%. By analyzing the robust clustering results, the activity characteristics of three TC types under the background of atmospheric circulation patterns and the characteristics of the waves generated by the three TC types are studied, especially the characteristics of extreme waves. The joint distribution pattern of extreme wave height and wave direction indicates the direction sector shift and frequency change caused by different TC types. These results provide important insights for risk analysis and resilience construction of coastal and ocean engineering structures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107448"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the water metabolism of coastal urban areas based on the water mass balance framework across time periods: A case study of Cape Town, South Africa 根据水量平衡框架评估沿海城市地区不同时期的水新陈代谢:南非开普敦案例研究
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107434
Ziyu Wang , Zehua Lu , Jiaqi Ma , Guohe Huang , Chunjiang An
{"title":"Assessing the water metabolism of coastal urban areas based on the water mass balance framework across time periods: A case study of Cape Town, South Africa","authors":"Ziyu Wang ,&nbsp;Zehua Lu ,&nbsp;Jiaqi Ma ,&nbsp;Guohe Huang ,&nbsp;Chunjiang An","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The status of water resources in many coastal cities has become increasingly fragile. In a changing climate, the amount and intensity of rainfall have continued to decline, causing some coastal regions to experience severe drought and deteriorated water supply situation. This article presents a comprehensive study of the urban water metabolism of Cape Town, South Africa. A water mass balance framework was utilized to examine the city's water system across four distinct periods. In addition, the water-energy nexus before and after the drought crisis was evaluated. The key findings include a large amount of surface runoff in the Cape Town area that was not utilized before the drought crisis, resulting in a natural loss potential of water supply that is 2.54 times greater than water used for supply systems. During the drought, per capita water consumption dropped by a substantial 25%; at the same time, the total rate of water loss experienced a substantial decrease of approximately 21%. Since the pandemic, Cape Town's water resources policy has shifted to diversifying water sources, and the use of wastewater and natural water losses will be optimized by more than 32% in 2040 to achieve a water-sensitive city. Future research should explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of urban water flows, the impact of socioeconomic factors, and the integration of water system optimization models for enhanced urban water management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107434"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimating the economic vulnerability of 2020–2099 storm flooding with sea level rise on Coastal Virginia 估算弗吉尼亚州沿海地区 2020-2099 年风暴洪水与海平面上升的经济脆弱性
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学
Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107438
Robert M. McNab , Yin-Hsuen Chen , George M. McLeod
{"title":"Estimating the economic vulnerability of 2020–2099 storm flooding with sea level rise on Coastal Virginia","authors":"Robert M. McNab ,&nbsp;Yin-Hsuen Chen ,&nbsp;George M. McLeod","doi":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107438","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107438","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating the economic impact of flooding is an essential element of flood risk management. Policy interventions to mitigate the impact of flooding must be balanced against the financial and economic costs of flooding. Using projections of sea level rise for 2040, 2060, and 2080 and estimates of flooding damage that are equaled or exceeded 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year period, we investigate the financial costs of flooding across eight planning districts in Coastal Virginia. We briefly discuss the methodology to estimate the average annualized loss (AAL) given discrete events and likelihoods and how these AALs flow into the estimation of the net present value of flooding in Coastal Virginia. The Hampton Roads metropolitan area accounts for approximately 80.7% of estimated nominal losses currently, rising to 88.1% by 2080 due to sea level rise. This vulnerability is linked to poorly planned development, population growth, ground subsidence, and economic inequities. The present value of unmitigated flooding ranges from $20.0 billion to $58.7 billion in 2021 dollars, depending on the discount rate. Discounted economic impacts for unmitigated sea level rise could reach $82.9 billion for Coastal Virginia this century. The concentration of costs in Hampton Roads, which produces 20% of Virginia's GDP, underscores the need for targeted economic and security policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54698,"journal":{"name":"Ocean & Coastal Management","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 107438"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142530069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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