Earth and Space Science最新文献

{"title":"Assessing Structure Collapse and Vegetation Loss After the 2025 Eaton Fire Using Optical Remote Sensing","authors":"Solene L. Antoine","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004583","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EA004583","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On 7–8 January, 2025, the Eaton fire destroyed &gt;9,000 structures and &gt;40 km² of forest in the northeastern region of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California. Building damage was primarily assessed through ground investigations, a process that took several weeks due to hazardous conditions and the difficulty of accessing burnt areas. This study presents a novel approach for post-disaster damage assessment using sub-meter resolution satellite optical imagery. The Eaton fire is a good test case study as it benefits from ground-truth data collected during field surveys and subsequent airborne LiDAR acquisitions. The proposed approach utilizes stereo pairs of optical satellite images to reconstruct the 3D ground surface geometry before and after the event, enabling the detection of elevation changes across the affected regions. Results reveal meter-scale elevation differences associated with both collapsed structures and burned vegetation, spanning urban areas and the adjacent Angeles National Forest. This technique leverages established photogrammetric and post-processing methods, making it reproducible and adaptable to various disasters and geographic areas. The ultimate goal is to offer a rapid, high-resolution satellite-based solution for damage mapping.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004583","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Global Climatological Model of the Equatorial Ionospheric Vertical E × B Drift: Integrating Ground-Based Magnetometer, Radar, and Satellite Data Sets","authors":"John Bosco Habarulema,&nbsp;Daniel Okoh,&nbsp;Endawoke Yizengaw,&nbsp;Valence Habyarimana,&nbsp;Michael Pezzopane,&nbsp;Paulo Roberto Fagundes,&nbsp;Zama Katamzi-Joseph,&nbsp;Mark B. Moldwin,&nbsp;Claudio Cesaroni,&nbsp;Danny Scipion","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004622","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EA004622","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;We present a new empirical vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drift model developed using ground-based magnetometer, radar, and satellite data over equatorial latitude regions. We first implement an algorithm relating magnetometer derived equatorial electrojet (EEJ) and vertical ion plasma drift (equivalent to vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drift within magnetic latitudes of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;±&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;5&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;°&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $pm 5{}^{circ}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; and altitudes of about 400–550 km) from the Communications and Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite at different longitude sectors. The relationship between EEJ and C/NOFS vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drift is developed separately at different longitudes over the globe at coincidental times when both data sets are available. These relationships are then used to estimate continuous vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drift at each epoch of EEJ observation over the respective longitude sectors during local daytime. The reconstructed vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drift data are combined with global C/NOFS vertical &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;E&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;B&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $mathbf{E}times mathbf{B}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; drifts a","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004622","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147682861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional Differences in the Direct and Indirect Impacts of China's Urbanization Process on Vegetation","authors":"Haoyun Shao,&nbsp;Mengxi Qu,&nbsp;Yining Zhang,&nbsp;Wenjie Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2026EA005001","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2026EA005001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Urbanization profoundly influences urban vegetation dynamics. Variations in development stages lead to differing direct (vegetation loss) and indirect (vegetation growth) impacts across old urban areas, new urban areas, and suburban, with unclear spatiotemporal mechanisms. This study examines 112 Chinese cities, constructing NDVI response curves along urbanization intensity gradients using NDVI and impervious surface data from 2000 to 2020. It quantifies direct and indirect urbanization effects in these zones and analyzes climatic and anthropogenic drivers via partial correlation analysis. Results indicate that (a) urbanization generally induces positive indirect effects, with the strongest enhancement in old urban areas (1.77%/year), followed by new urban areas (1.30%/year) and suburban (0.91%/year). (b) Indirect vegetation gains provide varying compensation. Old urban areas compensate 2.09% of these losses each year, while new urban areas compensate for 1.27%/year, and suburban compensate 0.72%/year. (c) Urbanization intensity trends dominate indirect enhancement, while climatic factors co-regulate vegetation growth. This research offers a scientific foundation for tailored ecological restoration strategies and sustainable urban development.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EA005001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147684127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral Irradiance Observations and Projections for Solar Cycle 25","authors":"Matthew T. DeLand,&nbsp;Sergey V. Marchenko,&nbsp;Judith L. Lean,&nbsp;Odele Coddington","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004810","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite makes near-daily measurements of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) at wavelengths between 265 and 500 nm for instrument calibration purposes. The low degradation and exceptional stability of OMI's calibration during its lifetime facilitates the creation of a new 18-year OMI Version 7 data set. This data set presented here, which extends our previous data set by more than six years, is constructed using an improved OMI degradation model, and enables discussion of SSI variability during the extended 2009 solar activity minimum and subsequent Solar Cycles 24 and 25. OMI observations of solar irradiance variability in the mid-ultraviolet (265–300 nm), near-ultraviolet (300–400 nm), and visible (400–500 nm) spectral regions, consistent with concurrent measurements from other satellite instruments, show that, contrary to initial predictions, Solar Cycle 25 is significantly more active than Solar Cycle 24. Solar activity indices created from OMI SSI observations agree with both satellite and ground-based indices, and are similarly higher in Solar Cycle 25 than 24. We demonstrate good agreement between the OMI irradiance observations and the new observation-based NOAA-NASA-LASP (NNLSSI1) model of solar irradiance variability, including during Solar Cycle 25. The agreement is even better when the model is revised using an improved facular index that is consistent with OMI activity indices. We use the revised NNLSSI1 rev 1 model reconstruction of solar irradiance in the past century to make a simple statistical projection of SSI variability during the remaining portion of Solar Cycle 25 and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004810","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147585022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Development of a Low Power GNSS System, as Part of a Drone Assisted Environmental Sensor Network for a Glacial Environment","authors":"K. Martinez,&nbsp;S. Attia,&nbsp;G. Bragg,&nbsp;A. Andrews,&nbsp;N. R. Baurley,&nbsp;J. K. Hart","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show the development of an innovative Internet of Things Real Time Kinematic Global Navigation Satellite System, to study the short-term changes in surface velocity of two adjacent Icelandic glaciers, in order to understand the response of glaciers to climate change. We show for the first time that we are able to deploy such a system using an Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle, which allows inaccessible areas of the glacier to be studied. This system is low power, cost effective, with centimeter-level accuracy and transmits its data to the web server daily. Whilst there were variations in transmission success, overall our data indicate clear similarities in temporal velocity variations between the rovers at the individual sites, both at Breiðamerkurjökull where the rovers were only ∼200 m apart as well as Fjallsjökull where they were ∼1 km apart. This demonstrates how velocity patterns (but not magnitudes) were similar across the glacier.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004549","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147666273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral Irradiance Observations and Projections for Solar Cycle 25","authors":"Matthew T. DeLand,&nbsp;Sergey V. Marchenko,&nbsp;Judith L. Lean,&nbsp;Odele Coddington","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004810","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite makes near-daily measurements of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) at wavelengths between 265 and 500 nm for instrument calibration purposes. The low degradation and exceptional stability of OMI's calibration during its lifetime facilitates the creation of a new 18-year OMI Version 7 data set. This data set presented here, which extends our previous data set by more than six years, is constructed using an improved OMI degradation model, and enables discussion of SSI variability during the extended 2009 solar activity minimum and subsequent Solar Cycles 24 and 25. OMI observations of solar irradiance variability in the mid-ultraviolet (265–300 nm), near-ultraviolet (300–400 nm), and visible (400–500 nm) spectral regions, consistent with concurrent measurements from other satellite instruments, show that, contrary to initial predictions, Solar Cycle 25 is significantly more active than Solar Cycle 24. Solar activity indices created from OMI SSI observations agree with both satellite and ground-based indices, and are similarly higher in Solar Cycle 25 than 24. We demonstrate good agreement between the OMI irradiance observations and the new observation-based NOAA-NASA-LASP (NNLSSI1) model of solar irradiance variability, including during Solar Cycle 25. The agreement is even better when the model is revised using an improved facular index that is consistent with OMI activity indices. We use the revised NNLSSI1 rev 1 model reconstruction of solar irradiance in the past century to make a simple statistical projection of SSI variability during the remaining portion of Solar Cycle 25 and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004810","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147585021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Where Is Southeast Asian Climate Research Produced? A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Science Literature","authors":"M. J. Custado,&nbsp;E. H. G. Cooperdock","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004882","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025EA004882","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Authorship in research manuscripts offers a useful lens to examine demographic participation in academic publishing, a process central to the production and dissemination of science. Climate research is particularly important for the 11 countries that comprise Southeast Asia (SEA), where environmental and socioeconomic conditions elevate vulnerability to climate change. In some cases, these factors can limit scientific capacity, highlighting the need for equitable international collaborations. This study quantifies author affiliations, publisher locations, funding acknowledgments, and citations in SEA physical climate science literature using metadata from 729 publications between 2014 and 2023. Collectively as a region, SEA-affiliated authors comprise 30.8% of all author country-affiliation counts, with 53.6% of manuscripts including at least one SEA-affiliated author. However, this authorship distribution is uneven among SEA nations, varying from zero for Timor-Leste to 7% affiliated with Vietnam. Additionally, country-level metrics show that the top three countries in authorship (USA, China, and Japan) comprise 37.5% of all authors. These same countries were mentioned 312 times in funding statements, compared to 251 for SEA-based institutions. Moreover, 90.3% of the articles are published in journals based in the USA and Europe. Manuscripts exclusively authored by non-SEA researchers on average received more citations than those with at least one SEA author. Together, these results reveal how local and external influences shape SEA climate science, demonstrating how perceptions of representation vary depending on how groups are aggregated. Quantifying these patterns can serve as basis for identifying challenges and opportunities for local participation in SEA climate science research.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004882","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147585020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Development of a Low Power GNSS System, as Part of a Drone Assisted Environmental Sensor Network for a Glacial Environment","authors":"K. Martinez,&nbsp;S. Attia,&nbsp;G. Bragg,&nbsp;A. Andrews,&nbsp;N. R. Baurley,&nbsp;J. K. Hart","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show the development of an innovative Internet of Things Real Time Kinematic Global Navigation Satellite System, to study the short-term changes in surface velocity of two adjacent Icelandic glaciers, in order to understand the response of glaciers to climate change. We show for the first time that we are able to deploy such a system using an Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle, which allows inaccessible areas of the glacier to be studied. This system is low power, cost effective, with centimeter-level accuracy and transmits its data to the web server daily. Whilst there were variations in transmission success, overall our data indicate clear similarities in temporal velocity variations between the rovers at the individual sites, both at Breiðamerkurjökull where the rovers were only ∼200 m apart as well as Fjallsjökull where they were ∼1 km apart. This demonstrates how velocity patterns (but not magnitudes) were similar across the glacier.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004549","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147666252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Polarization Changes in Lunar Simulant Soil: The Role of Incident, Reflection, and Off-Plane Angles","authors":"Jinkyu Kim,&nbsp;Minsup Jeong,&nbsp;Sungsoo S. Kim,&nbsp;Ho Jin,&nbsp;Young-Jun Choi,&nbsp;Hong-Kyu Moon","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004773","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observing the polarization of the lunar regolith is essential for obtaining detailed information about the composition and characteristics of lunar soil. Observations conducted via lunar orbiters facilitate polarization measurements over wide areas; however, achieving very high-resolution imaging requires either a large optical system or a narrow field of view, both of which complicate observations under varying incident angle conditions. Furthermore, when the lunar surface is imaged at high resolution, the emission angle can vary significantly due to the slope and orientation of local terrain features such as craters and hills. This variability is particularly pronounced in young craters, where steep slopes near the rim result in emission angles that are nearly horizontal. In addition, unlike ground-based observations, orbital systems can observe the same region at various times and from different angles, resulting in significant variation in the off-plane angle between the satellite, the target area, and the Sun. Consequently, the Sun, target, and detector may not align linearly on the lunar surface. In this study, we measured the degree of polarization of the JSC-1A lunar soil simulant at various incident, reflection, and off-plane angles to examine how the polarizer angle changes under different conditions. The results show that even at the same phase angle, the degree of polarization varies significantly with incident and off-plane angles, indicating that these geometric factors must be considered for accurate interpretation of polarization measurements. These measurements are expected to aid in identifying critical factors for accurately interpreting polarization data obtained from the lunar surface.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004773","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147666261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Ensemble Multivariate Multiscale Framework for Prediction of Long-Term Solar Activity With Nonstationary Oscillations","authors":"Shan Jiang,&nbsp;Zu-Guo Yu,&nbsp;Vo Van Anh,&nbsp;Taesam Lee,&nbsp;Yu Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024EA004042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA004042","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Solar activity is usually characterized by different indices from different perspectives, which are commonly interconnected and contain nonstationary oscillations (NSOs). Given the significant influence of solar activity on space weather, the Earth and humans, it is of great significance to predict solar activity for better understanding not only solar dynamics but also geomagnetic activity and space weather. Because of the time-varying phase and modulus of NSOs, accurate prediction of long-term solar activity is a challenging task. For this task, we propose an ensemble multivariate multiscale framework taking advantage of the fast and adaptive multivariate empirical mode decomposition, ensemble multivariate nonstationary oscillation resampling, and the time lag effect. We first simultaneously obtain the decomposed components at aligned scales. At each scale, we iteratively predict the target component by integrating its connection with relevant factors, considering error propagation in the iterative prediction and the time lag due to delivery of the impact of specific factors to the target series. Then we sum the predictions at all scales to produce the final long-term prediction. A simulation experiment using the Rössler system is performed to evaluate and verify the effectiveness of our proposed framework. The method is then applied to produce long-term predictions of sunspot number and solar flux, which are two important indices of solar activity. The results indicate our proposed framework has similar prediction performance with longer lead time relative to the official model. These numerical results support the feasibility and applicability of the framework in empirical data analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"13 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA004042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147585011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}