Earth and Space Science最新文献

{"title":"Ensemble Model Using the Fokker–Planck Equation and Alfvénic Drift for Estimating Proton Flux in Solar Energetic Particle Events","authors":"Ji-Hoon Ha,&nbsp;Jae-Hyung Lee,&nbsp;JaeHun Kim,&nbsp;Sang Cheol Han,&nbsp;Wonhyeong Yi,&nbsp;Hyun-Jun Nah","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004319","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observations of solar energetic particles (SEPs) accelerated at collisionless shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) highlight the importance of understanding proton transport in velocity space. In this study, we present an ensemble model based on the one-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation to estimate proton flux from CME-driven shocks propagating toward Earth. Using a CME analysis tool with coronagraph data, we derived initial conditions from key CME characteristics, including CME speed, angular width, Alfvén Mach number, and plasma beta. We then solved the one-dimensional Fokker–Planck equation under the test-particle regime, applicable to weak CME-driven shocks (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>M</mi>\u0000 <mi>A</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 <mo>–</mo>\u0000 <mn>4</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${M}_{A}mathit{sim }1mbox{--}4$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) where the dynamical pressure of shock-accelerated particles is low compared to thermal pressure. Notably, our model incorporates the effects of Alfvén wave transmission and reflection at shocks, which significantly influence the efficiency of diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) and the transport of shock-accelerated particles in low-beta CME-driven shocks. To address systematic uncertainties from initial conditions obtained through the CME analysis tool and the nonlinear dynamics of the shock surface, including turbulence, we employed an ensemble approach for critical variables impacting DSA efficiency, such as the Alfvén Mach number, plasma beta, and upstream wave amplitude. By estimating proton flux during SEP events in 2024, our ensemble model produced predictions consistent with observations within a 1-sigma deviation, highlighting the importance of Alfvénic drift physics in SEP models of particle acceleration at shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004319","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Remote Sensing of Alpine Peatlands: Challenges of Mapping Thousands of Sparse Small Sites Scattered Across Extensive Mountainous Territories","authors":"Qiqi Li,&nbsp;Manudeo Singh,&nbsp;Sonia Silvestri","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004201","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Alpine peatlands are one of the carbon reservoirs, provide vital ecosystem services, and support endangered biodiversity. However, they are globally understudied, including those in the Italian Alps, which host thousands of small sites averaging under 1 ha. Their complex geomorphology makes detection challenging with single-sensor, low-resolution remote sensing imagery. In the last decade, high resolution multi-source imagery (e.g., Sentinel series) and the cloud-based computation platforms (e.g., Google Earth Engine—GEE) have become available. Using these advancements, we developed a method to map the distribution of alpine peatlands. Utilizing 1 and 30 m digital elevation models (DEMs), optical, and microwave data sets, our method exploits a pixel-based Random Forest (RF) machine-learning algorithm on the GEE platform to map alpine peatlands in the Avisio River basin of the Italian Alps. The results show that the data set of single-year time series multi-source imagery, binary samples (peatland or non-peatland), and 30 m DEM is the most effective for mapping alpine peatlands. The method achieved an overall accuracy of 90.5%, with 81.8% true positives and 0.8% false positives. The method identified 11.635 km² of alpine peatlands, surpassing the 7.764 km² documented in official inventories, this discrepancy may be due to overestimation but also gaps in the existing reference inventory. In the classification process, DEM derived variables proved more effective than optical and microwave derived variables. Variable importance analysis in the RF model indicated that elevation is the most influential factor, while the microwave derived VV-VH difference (ascending track) contributes the least.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004201","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring Potential Impact-Induced Magnetic Signatures at the Tunguska Event Epicenter Using UAV-Based Magnetometry","authors":"M. Takáč,&nbsp;G. Kletetschka,&nbsp;N. Hasson,&nbsp;R. Kavkova,&nbsp;V. Petrucha","doi":"10.1029/2024EA004194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA004194","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Tunguska event of 1908 remains the most significant atmospheric explosion in recorded history, yet its geophysical effects, particularly its impact on Earth's magnetic field, remain uncertain. This study presents the first detailed magnetometer survey of the Tunguska epicenter, aiming to map regional magnetic anomalies and assess potential impact-induced magnetization. The survey used unmanned aerial vehicle and covered approximately 30 square kilometers, revealing a complex pattern of magnetic anomalies that correlate with known geological structures. Notably, some anomalies exhibit spatial alignment with the presumed trajectory of the airburst (∼300° azimuth), suggesting potential influence from the event. This spatial correlation raises the possibility that transient electromagnetic effects from the airburst, such as ionization-induced remagnetization or shock-induced changes in magnetic mineralogy, could have contributed to the observed anomaly distribution. However, due to the limitations of our data set, we cannot definitively attribute any observed anomalies to impact-related remagnetization. Our analysis identifies regions where future rock magnetic studies could provide further insights. We discuss possible mechanisms for transient remagnetization, including ionization effects and shock-induced mineral transformations, while emphasizing the necessity of future paleomagnetic sampling to test these hypotheses. These findings establish a foundational geophysical data set for future interdisciplinary investigations into the Tunguska event's environmental and geological consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA004194","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Data Assimilation Frequency and Observation Location in Thermal Effluent Modeling for Coastal Waters","authors":"N. Alsulaiman,&nbsp;M. van Reeuwijk,&nbsp;M. D. Piggott","doi":"10.1029/2024EA004099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA004099","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the application of data assimilation (DA) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to address the uncertainties associated with modeling the thermal effluents discharged from power and desalination plants into a shallow, tidal bay. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Sulaibikhat Bay (SB), Kuwait, was developed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite to simulate the transport and dispersion of a thermal plume under the forces of predominantly semidiurnal tides. A series of observing system simulation experiments were conducted using the OpenDA toolbox to identify the optimal observation location and DA frequency. Significant reductions in temperature prediction errors were achieved using the EnKF for state estimation. The optimal DA frequency was characterized by its ability to retain the analysis adjustments in the system while maintaining computational efficiency. Relative to the dynamics of SB, the optimal frequency was found to be hourly. An excessive rate of DA was found to cause filter divergence, where forecast error is falsely underestimated due to diminishing ensemble variance. This leads the filter to ignore the information provided by the observations. In contrast, a sparse rate of DA was found to cause the model to revert to its pre-assimilative state. The optimal station locations were identified using the ensemble-based targeted observation method, based on their ability to maximize the reduction of the analysis error variance. The optimal locations were attributed to having a balance between exhibiting strong covariances with the other state elements while experiencing local variance exceeding that of the prescribed observation error variance.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA004099","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144635160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying Wet Troposphere Delay in L-Band InSAR Using Weather Radar Reflectivity","authors":"Talib Oliver-Cabrera,&nbsp;Cathleen E. Jones,&nbsp;Marc Simard,&nbsp;Bhuvan Varugu,&nbsp;Saoussen Belhadj-Aissa","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pulses undergo variable propagation delays in the atmosphere due to changes in pressure, temperature, and humidity within the troposphere, causing large error in Interferometric SAR (InSAR) measurements of land surface displacement. Wet troposphere delay, resulting from condensed water and water vapor clouds, can introduce delays of tens of centimeters that significantly impact surface displacement estimates. This study provides unequivocal evidence of the wet troposphere's impact on InSAR phase measurements by examining spatial patterns in NOAA NEXRAD weather radar reflectivity and interferometric phase outliers. We utilize a feature-comparison approach with reflectivity data from NEXRAD radar stations to identify artifacts from wet tropospheric delays in InSAR phase measurements derived from rapid repeat-pass data acquired by UAVSAR L-band SAR. NEXRAD's 5-min scanning interval, compared to UAVSAR's 30-min revisit time, enabled detection of phase artifacts caused by fast-moving and developing clouds. We identify regions in InSAR interferograms with troposphere-induced phase artifacts by matching features common to InSAR phase outlier masks and NEXRAD high reflectivity masks. Matched results between InSAR phase noise and NEXRAD reflectivity show phase delays of up to 25 radians in L-band, corresponding to 48 cm of delay. Comparison with tropospheric delays calculated using the Generic Atmospheric Correction Online Service for InSAR (GACOS) showed global weather models lack sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to accurately estimate observed wet troposphere delays. While our study focused on UAVSAR, findings apply to other SAR missions, including L-band NISAR and ALOS2/4, aiding identification and interpretation of InSAR results affected by tropospheric delays.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying Barriers and Solutions to Building African Research Capacity in Geoscience and Adjacent Fields","authors":"Carly Frank,&nbsp;Linda Prokopy,&nbsp;Matthew Huber","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004206","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004206","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Africa currently accounts for 18% of the world's population yet produces less than 2% of global research. This study examines the barriers faced by African researchers in geoscience and adjacent fields to research productivity and publication, as well as explores how these scientists view collaboration with international partners. A survey instrument was distributed via email through four partnering networks. We surveyed researchers across 12 countries; however, the respondent pool was dominated by those from Nigeria and Ghana. The results of this survey show that insufficient financial support, unreliable internet access, and limited career development opportunities are key barriers to research output. Interestingly, a lack of knowledge on how to collaborate regionally may be a previously underappreciated barrier. Despite many journals offering fee waivers, financial constraints in publishing are perceived to be a substantial barrier. In contrast to previous studies, most respondents did not view language barriers or writing skills as a significant issue. Collaboration with international partners was viewed positively by respondents, the majority of whom also indicated a belief that international collaborations benefit African and international partners equally. African researchers felt they could conduct research without expertise from international partners, but not without financial aid. Further research is needed to explore the potential discrepancy in how African researchers view their ability to write scientifically, and how journal editors may view these skills. In parallel, efforts to enhance the visibility of African researchers in high-impact journals may help ensure broader inclusion of perspectives on challenges facing their continent.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004206","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) XCO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON","authors":"Saswati Das,&nbsp;Matthäus Kiel,&nbsp;Joshua Laughner,&nbsp;Gregory Osterman,&nbsp;Christopher W. O’Dell,&nbsp;Thomas E. Taylor,&nbsp;Brendan Fisher,&nbsp;Frédéric Chevallier,&nbsp;Nicholas M. Deutscher,&nbsp;Manvendra K. Dubey,&nbsp;Dietrich G. Feist,&nbsp;Omaira Garcia,&nbsp;David W. T. Griffith,&nbsp;Frank Hase,&nbsp;Laura T. Iraci,&nbsp;Rigel Kivi,&nbsp;Isamu Morino,&nbsp;Justus Notholt,&nbsp;Hirofumi Ohyama,&nbsp;David Pollard,&nbsp;Sébastien Roche,&nbsp;Coleen M. Roehl,&nbsp;Constantina Rousogenous,&nbsp;Mahesh Kumar Sha,&nbsp;Kei Shiomi,&nbsp;Kimberly Strong,&nbsp;Ralf Sussmann,&nbsp;Yao Té,&nbsp;Geoffrey Toon,&nbsp;Mihalis Vrekoussis,&nbsp;Pucai Wang,&nbsp;Thorsten Warneke,&nbsp;Paul Wennberg,&nbsp;Abhishek Chatterjee,&nbsp;Vivienne H. Payne,&nbsp;Debra Wunch","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003935","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) is NASA's first Earth observation satellite mission dedicated to studying the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO₂) on a global scale. The observations of reflected sunlight are inverted in a retrieval algorithm to produce estimates of the dry air mole-fractions of CO₂ (X_CO2). The OCO-2 Level 2 data release, version 11.1 (v11.1) retrievals from the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm, includes significant improvements in the X_CO2 data product compared to older OCO-2 data versions. This work compares the v11.1 X_CO2 from OCO-2 against X_CO2 estimates collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), OCO-2's primary validation source. The OCO-2 project provides a version of the Level 2 data product, called “lite” files that include calibrated and bias-corrected X_CO2 values, accessible together with all OCO-2 data products through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). This work shows that OCO-2 X_CO2 observations made between September 2014 and December 2023, after quality filtering and the application of an averaging kernel correction, agree well with coincident TCCON data for all OCO-2 observational modes of land (nadir, glint, target) and ocean (glint). The aggregated, bias-corrected, and quality-filtered absolute average bias values are less than or equal to 0.20 parts per million (ppm) globally for all OCO-2 observation modes, where the biases do not indicate a statistically significant time dependence. The land nadir/glint mode has the lowest bias value of −0.03 ± 0.85 ppm.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003935","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Current Subsidence Rates of the Mississippi River Delta From Satellite Radar Interferometry: Onshore and Offshore","authors":"Fanghui Deng","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004252","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mississippi River Delta has long been recognized as an area experiencing substantial subsidence and land loss. Existing GNSS stations are quite sparse and there is no station at the Brid's Foot area and the delta front (offshore) where the Holocene sediment is the thickest. Six-year-long Sentinel-1 satellite data was used to estimate the subsidence rates using PS-InSAR method. Taking advantage of the many oil/gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, the subsidence rates at the platforms were estimated. These unique measurements filled the data gap in the offshore region which is important to understand the dominating factor for the subsidence on a regional scale. The maximum subsidence rate measured by InSAR is about 12 mm/year (converted to the vertical direction from InSAR line-of-sight direction) and is around the Bird's Foot area. An abrupt increase in subsidence rate was observed immediately downstream near the end of the artificial levee system. By excluding active platforms, the offshore subsidence rates due to natural processes were obtained. Both on-land and offshore InSAR subsidence rates showed a nearly linear relation with the Holocene sediment thickness. InSAR observations from targets with relatively deep foundations suggest that the background subsidence rate due to deformation of the Pleistocene and underlying strata is about 0–2.5 mm/year and shows a gradient approximately perpendicular to the coastline. This is in general less than half of the observed total subsidence rate. The compaction of Holocene sediment likely dominates the subsidence of the Mississippi River Delta area on the regional scale, although local deformation could be dominated by other processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004252","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144582215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Sequential Quadratic Programming Approach to Coupling-Bounded Non-Inertial Earthquake Cycle Kinematics With Distance-Weighted Eigenmodes","authors":"Brendan J. Meade,&nbsp;John P. Loveless","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004229","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Geologic and geodetic observations provide constraints on tectonic and earthquake cycle kinematics. Block models offer one approach to integrating the effects of plate rotations, elastic strain accumulation, applied basal displacements, internal block strain, and idealized pressure sources. Here, we describe the construction of block models where spatially variable slip rates are parameterized by distance-weighted eigenmodes operating over meshes of triangular dislocation elements. This dimensionally reduced model is recast as a quadratic programming problem with upper and lower bounds on both geologic fault slip rates and spatially variable slip deficit rates. We propose iterating over successive quadratic programming estimates with evolving slip rate bounds to find a solution consistent with specified coupling at all points on geometrically complex fault surfaces.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004229","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144573807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MF-UFNO: A Fourier Neural Operators-Based Model for Radar Echo Extrapolation","authors":"Tingting Ye,&nbsp;Weihua Ai,&nbsp;Dachao Jin,&nbsp;Zhonghui Tan,&nbsp;Li Wang,&nbsp;Fenghua Ling,&nbsp;Xi Liu,&nbsp;Nan Chen,&nbsp;Senshen Hu","doi":"10.1029/2024EA003740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EA003740","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Severe convective weather events, such as heavy rainfall and flooding, are serious threats to human society. However, accurate nowcasting of these events using radar remains challenging due to the complex dynamics and nonlinear physical processes involved. Moreover, existing radar echo extrapolation methods primarily rely on time-domain analysis, leaving a considerable gap in capturing frequency-domain features. Therefore, this paper proposes a Multi-variable Fusion UNet-Fourier Neural Operator (MF-UFNO) model, which combines multiple radar variables through a late-fusion strategy for extrapolation tasks. The model integrates Fast Fourier Transform to extract frequency-domain features, enhancing the representation of the spatiotemporal evolution of radar echoes. The MF-UFNO model is trained and validated on polarimetric radar variables collected from an S-band dual-polarization radar between April 2020 and June 2021. Experimental results indicate that the MF-UFNO model achieves high forecasting accuracy, with statistical Threat Scores exceeding 0.5 and 0.4 for 15 and 25 dBZ thresholds, respectively, over the forecast period. Compared to existing models such as the SmaAt-UNet model and the Rainymotion model, the proposed model demonstrates superior performance in radar echo extrapolation, particularly in accurately predicting fine-scale structures within a 60-min forecast window. With the precise nowcasting capabilities, the MF-UFNO model can improve the generation of severe convective weather warnings and enhance short-term weather guidance.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EA003740","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}