{"title":"Internal and external risk spillovers in energy and metal markets: the role of economic policy uncertainties","authors":"Xinran Li , Sheng Cheng , Ruibin Liang , Tao Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic policy uncertainty has intensified volatility in energy markets and facilitated the spread of cross-market risks. Notably, metals play an indispensable role as a critical underpinning of clean energy technologies throughout the energy transition process. Given this, we employ the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness decomposition method to calculate spillover effects within and across the fossil energy, clean energy, and energy metal markets (the FCM system). On this basis, we apply the wavelet coherence model to examine the lead-lag relationship of monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on spillovers. Finally, we develop portfolio strategies for the FCM system under different uncertainty regimes. Our main findings are as follows. First, internal (within-market) and external (cross-market) spillover effects accounted for 29.37 % and 23.42 % respectively. Renewable energy developers and operators emerge as the largest net transmitter, while cobalt is the largest net receiver. Additionally, spillovers exhibit significant time-varying characteristics and heightened sensitivity during crisis periods. Second, MPU, TPU and FPU amplify or dampen both internal and external risk spillovers, particularly in the medium to long term, with the clean energy market bing more sensitive to these uncertainties. Third, investors should overweight assets linked to renewable-energy developers and operators and dynamically adjust holdings of energy metals such as cobalt, copper, and aluminum in response to policy uncertainty conditions to achieve optimal risk diversification. Our findings provide insights for countries to improve institutional mechanisms and policy measures for the low-carbon energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1742-1762"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zeng Wenling , Dong Lu , Zhao Shouguo (Professor and Doctoral Supervisor)
{"title":"The impact of energy security on energy efficiency: based on the moderating effect of government intervention","authors":"Zeng Wenling , Dong Lu , Zhao Shouguo (Professor and Doctoral Supervisor)","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy security (ES) is the cornerstone of a stable and efficient economic operation. Its coordination with energy efficiency (EE) is the key to solving the contradictions in the current \"energy-environment-economy\" system. Based on this, this paper utilizes China's provincial panel data from 2000 to 2022 to systematically evaluate the effects of ES and government intervention on EE and to identify the regulatory mechanism between the two. The study found a significant negative correlation between ES and EE, indicating that under certain conditions, improving ES may hinder efficiency growth. Government intervention plays a significant buffering role in this process, helping to achieve the coordination of ES and EE. Mechanism analysis reveals that ES indirectly hinders EE through the solidification of industrial structures and the crowding-out effect of green technology innovation. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the adverse effect of ES is relatively weak in the eastern region, where an optimized energy structure and improved institutional environment are present.In contrast, the central and western regions, as well as resource-rich regions, are constrained by resource dependence and path dependence, resulting in more significant efficiency inhibition. However, government intervention can effectively alleviate this adverse effect. This study provides theoretical support and policy inspiration for transforming ES into a positive force that promotes sustainable economic development through government intervention tailored to local conditions, as well as for developing economies to coordinate security and efficiency goals during the energy transformation process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1653-1669"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing the impact of new energy demonstration city policy on industrial carbon intensity using machine learning","authors":"Jianbao Chen, Jiamin Shen, Nan Ke","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industrial carbon intensity (ICI) is a key indicator for evaluating carbon dioxide emission reduction efficiency. Given that the industrial sector has historically dominated urban carbon emissions in China, its energy transition constitutes a pivotal pathway for achieving national \"dual carbon\" objectives. To address this imperative, the Chinese government launched a nationwide New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) pilot program in 2014. However, its impact on ICI remains unexplored. To fill this gap, utilizing panel data from 274 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2022, we employ dual machine learning models to evaluate NEDC's influence on ICI. Our findings indicate that NEDC significantly reduces ICI, bolstered by various robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that NEDC fosters inventive and improved green technology innovations, and alleviates factor market distortions of capital and labor, leading to reduced ICI. Heterogeneity analysis shows that NEDC exerts a stronger inhibitory effect on ICI in resource-based cities compared to non-resource-based ones. It effectively reduces ICI in non-old industrial base cities and large urban areas, while its impacts are insignificant in old industrial base cities as well as medium & small cities. These findings provide valuable theoretical insights and empirical evidence to guide the strategic advancement of NEDC initiatives and sustainable urban industrial development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1690-1707"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Major shareholders' equity pledge and the “All talk and no action” strategy in digital transformation","authors":"Hui Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on data from Chinese-listed companies, this study examines the impact of major shareholders' equity pledges on firms' \"all talk and no action\" strategies in digital transformation, with increased disclosure of digital transformation information but limited actions in digital transformation. It finds that equity pledges induce the \"all talk and no action\" strategy. Mechanism tests reveal that major shareholders with pledged equity pursue this strategy to mitigate risks of control transfer. This effect is more pronounced for companies with higher investor attention, and practical difficulties related to digital transformation, but extensive media coverage and institutional oversight (shareholding and site visits) can mitigate such an effect. Additionally, there is no significant difference in the short-term valuation levels between companies with equity pledges and those without when the level of digital transformation disclosure is similar. Thus, investors do not perceive a significant difference in digital transformation disclosures between companies with and without equity pledges. However, the strategy of \"all talk and no action\" diminishes long-term performance and increases stock price crash risk, especially for companies with equity pledges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1630-1652"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of public data openness on corporate supply chain efficiency: A quasi-natural experiment based on a local government data openness platform","authors":"Wenqi Liao , Ling Zhuo","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of public data openness (PDO) on supply chain efficiency (SCE). PDO is a key initiative for advancing digital transformation in public services and promoting high-quality economic development. We use the launch of public data platforms by Chinese local governments as a quasi-natural experiment, with firm-level data from 2008 to 2022, and find that PDO reduces inventory turnover days and thus enhances SCE. Our results remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity and conducting various robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that PDO achieves these effects by accelerating digital transformation, enhancing inter-firm synergy, and optimizing the urban business environment. Further, heterogeneity analysis indicates different impacts across firm types — with stronger impacts on private and technology-intensive firms — and under varying policy environments. We recommend that local governments strengthen public data platform development, promote digital transformation, and enhance intellectual property protection to fully harness the power of data and foster high-quality economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1557-1574"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144678763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aline Mortha , Toshi H. Arimura , Shiro Takeda , Bernhard R.P. Steubing , Tatyana Chesnokova
{"title":"Industrial relocation or shorter shipping routes? Examining the impact of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism on global emissions using structural gravity","authors":"Aline Mortha , Toshi H. Arimura , Shiro Takeda , Bernhard R.P. Steubing , Tatyana Chesnokova","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To address concerns over carbon leakage, the European Union (EU) has announced the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which started in October 2023. Using trade data for the year 2014, this study applies a structural gravity model to simulate the impact of CBAM on welfare, production, exports and emissions. Our main contribution is to include emissions from shipping activities into the structural gravity model, in addition to production, to offer a more comprehensive assessment of the CBAM’s environmental effect. Our results show that, while CBAM would have little effect on welfare, the policy would contribute to a reduction in exports, estimated between -0.29 % (metal products) and -1.49 % (iron and steel). In particular, we find that middle income economies are most affected by the policy, and that these countries tend to greatly reduce their exports to the EU. We also observe a rebound in production (and associated emissions) among the EU economies. Nevertheless, by including emissions from shipping activities, we find that CBAM would have resulted in a large amount of emission decrease, most of which is due to export reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1708-1741"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guodong Chi , Yuanyuan Liu , Hong Fang , Yuanyuan Xiu
{"title":"Tapping the potential of green finance: Can energy efficiency credit drive traditional industries to green? Evidence from China","authors":"Guodong Chi , Yuanyuan Liu , Hong Fang , Yuanyuan Xiu","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of accelerated global green transformation, green finance is emerging as a vital instrument for promoting sustainable development. However, traditional green financial instruments characterized by credit constraints often prevent energy-intensive industries from obtaining sufficient green financial support, making it challenging for them to undertake green transformation. How best to facilitate the green transformation of traditional high-energy-consuming industries remains a pressing challenge. To overcome the limitations of traditional green finance tools, China implemented the Energy Efficiency Credit Policy (EECP) in 2015. Distinguished from traditional green financial instruments dominated by credit constraints, EECP is designed to facilitate the green transition of high-energy-consuming industries by providing credit funding support. Taking EECP as a quasi-natural experiment, we systematically investigate how green financial instruments stimulate green innovation vitality in key energy-consuming industries by exploiting a difference-in-differences (DID) model. This effect is particularly evident in enterprises facing higher financing constraints, greater industry financing dependence, superior information disclosure quality, and more efficient information transmission. Further mechanism tests reveal that expanding long-term financing scales, reducing credit financing costs, and enhancing commercial credit financing are crucial channels through which the policy exerts its effects. Moreover, EECP can guide firms in optimizing internal resources allocation and encourage them to prioritize preventive green investments. Ultimately, EECP can improve the total factor productivity of target enterprises, facilitating their transformation and upgrading. Collectively, our findings underscore the indispensable role of green finance in advancing the green and low-carbon transition of traditional sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1834-1853"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jun Zhao , Yalin Lei , Hongyun Huang , Xiaomeng Zhao
{"title":"Empowering resilience of urban energy system in China: How does digital economy matter?","authors":"Jun Zhao , Yalin Lei , Hongyun Huang , Xiaomeng Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empowering energy security with the digital economy is a vital national strategic initiative, and it is urgent to explore whether China’s urban energy system can leverage the opportunities of the digital economy to enhance its resilience. We, thus, take 286 cities as research objects, construct an energy system resilience (ESR) index system from three dimensions of robustness, recoverability, and adaptability, and gauge the urban ESR from 2010 to 2019. On this basis, this article quantitatively discusses the actual effect and heterogeneity of the digital economy on urban ESR. We find: (1) the ESR values of 286 cities show a stable situation followed by an obvious increase and a sharp decline from 2010 to 2019, and cities with higher and lower ESR levels are located in the northeast and southwest China, respectively; (2) the current development of the digital economy cannot stimulate and empower urban ESR enhancement, which stems from the negative impacts of the digital economy on energy productivity and industrial upgrading; and (3) the negative digitization-ESR nexus is mainly manifested in the midwestern cities, middle- and small-scale cities, non-provincial capitals, and the middle Yangtze River and Chongqing-Chengdu cities. This study, consequently, proposes some targeted policy implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1575-1594"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does carbon emission trading policy improve agricultural energy transition? Evidence from China","authors":"Jing Rong , Quan Guo , Shikun Chen , Jinghui Hao","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The carbon emission trading (CET) policy is crucial for China to meet its goals of reaching ‘carbon peak’ and achieving ‘carbon neutrality’. However, as a market-driven environmental regulation, it remains uncertain whether the CET policy could improve the structural transition of agricultural energy consumption (AET) and what its impact mechanisms might be. This study employs provincial panel data from China between 2005 and 2022, utilizing a difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the effect of the CET policy on AET. The CET policy has been found to significantly improve AET, based on placebo tests and robustness checks. However, the policy effects vary with regional location, the extent of labor mobility, and temporal dynamics. There are significantly positive impacts in the eastern and western regions as well as areas in China with high labor mobility. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the CET policy’s effect on AET exhibits a time-lag, with the impact on AET progressively increasing each year after the policy takes effect. The results of the mechanism analysis indicate that agricultural green technology innovation (AGTI) could positively contribute to the CET policy’s promotion of the AET. However, we are unable to verify the influence of digital economy (DE) in this process. This study offers both theoretical over CET policy on AET, and helps identify the causal relationship between the CET policy and AET and offer insights for public policy development to support further advancements in carbon emission policy implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1670-1689"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does low-carbon policy affect residents’ life satisfaction? Evidence from China","authors":"Cheng Zhang , Xiaohong Ling , Xiyan Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.07.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting the quasi-natural experiment of the construction of low-carbon pilot cities, we evaluate whether environmental regulations improve residents’ life satisfaction. Theoretical analysis hypothesizes that the implementation of the policy has both health and income effects. Empirical analysis shows that the implementation of low-carbon city pilot policies improves residents’ life satisfaction. Specifically, this policy reduces regional environmental pollution, improves the average health level of residents and their family members, reduces medical expenses, and increases the frequency of physical exercise among residents. Further, it promotes green technology advancements in urban enterprises. This increases green total factor productivity and the labor income share, enabling residents to increase their disposable income, and thus, subjective well-being. Meanwhile, the policy has a stronger impact on cities with moderate population sizes, a sizable working-age population, and a higher proportion of residents with lower labor skills. Finally, the policy improves residents’ willingness to pay for environmental governance, reflecting people’s growing needs for a better living environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 1876-1895"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}