Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

{"title":"Does the timing of subsidized loans matter for clean energy technological innovation? Evidence from China","authors":"Fengyun Liu,&nbsp;Jingqian Huang,&nbsp;Qu Yan,&nbsp;Lu Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Clean energy technological innovation is essential to reduce energy security risks, and policy support is necessary to remedy its double positive externalities. Subsidized loans are one of the important instruments by integrating policy and the market factors. However, issuing subsidized loans at different time points may have different impacts on corporate technological innovation. This is an issue that has not yet been clarified. The study involves the manual collection of data on subsidized loans of clean energy enterprises. Based on the time sequence of subsidized loans and enterprises’ research and development (R&amp;D) activities, subsidized loans are manually classified into a “prior” group (low-interest loans where subsidies are given beforehand) and a “post” group (interest subsidies where subsidies are given afterwards). The impacts and associated mechanisms of subsidized loans at different time points on technological innovation of clean energy enterprises (TICE) are then analyzed. The results indicate that compared with interest subsidies, low-interest loans have a stronger positive effect on future TICE. Financing constraints play a mediating role in the process. Interest subsidies, as a type of post-subsidized loan, do not, by definition, stimulate TICE that has occurred in the past; instead, they may benefit future R&amp;D activities. In addition, financial development may play a positive moderating role in the process of interest subsidies affecting future TICE. Moreover, there is heterogeneity in the impacts of subsidized loans on TICE. The government should attach importance to the prior subsidized loans to promote clean energy technological innovation, thus reducing energy security risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 407-425"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation expectations and house prices in the euro area","authors":"Nektarios A. Michail,&nbsp;Kyriaki G. Louca","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inflation and inflation expectations are of the most watched macroeconomic variables, given the central banks’ usual inflation mandate. While inflation targets usually stand at two percent, households’ inflation perceptions differ substantially. Using a panel VAR approach and data for all 19 euro area countries, this study focuses on identifying the main determinants of households’ inflation expectations and perceptions. Our findings suggest that house price fluctuations have a primary role on the formation of public inflation expectations and perceptions and thus they should be taken into considerations for the formation of monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 383-391"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fertility policy, fertility intentions, and fertility transition: A quasi-natural experiment based on the \"Universal Two-Child\" Policy","authors":"Haidong Lei ,&nbsp;Jie Ma ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Chen ,&nbsp;Ziyue Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fertility policies do not directly influence fertility behaviors but rather act through the mediation of fertility intentions. This study develops a framework for analyzing the transition of fertility intentions under the policy of relaxing fertility restrictions across different orders. It introduces a novel “intention-policy-behavior” linkage to elucidate the mechanisms of fertility transition. Using panel data from the 2014 and 2018 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we focus on group with one child and examining the effect of \"Universal Two-Child\" policy on transforming fertility intentions into behavior. It finds that families wanting two or more children significantly increased their number of children after the policy's implementation. Additionally, the greater the fertility intention, the better the transformative effect of the fertility policy. In group studies, the transformation of fertility intentions is significantly higher when the firstborn is a girl in urban areas, indicating a gender preference for male children in fertility decisions. Lastly, heterogeneity analysis reveals that housing wealth also impacts the transformation of intentions, with those desiring a third child requiring more living space. Our study confirms the role of fertility policies in transforming fertility intentions into behavior. A multidimensional policy combination with others aimed at boosting fertility intentions can effectively enhance fertility rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 336-352"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143131917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil shocks greasing the wheels of Islamic stocks: An explorative forecasting analysis","authors":"Ibrahim D. Raheem ,&nbsp;Oluyele Akinkugbe ,&nbsp;Xuan Vinh Vo","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between Islamic finance and oil shocks by decomposing oil price into demand, supply, and risk shocks. This paper's distinguishing feature lies in assessing the forecasting prowess of —in-and-out-of-sample—oil shocks on Islamic finance. Using pooled data from the Dow Jones regional Islamic finance indices across regions (Emerging economies, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the world), our results reveal that the three variants of shocks are significant determinants of Islamic finance returns. We also show that the shocks can forecast stock returns, though this forecasting ability is weak for the European market. Accounting for the influence of some macroeconomic fundamentals improves the forecasting prowess of the model and allows for successful robustness checks. The policy implication of the result is that investors and related shareholders in the Islamic financial markets should necessarily consider the divergent activities in the oil market while making portfolio design decisions. We also believe that future studies could consider replicating this paper's analytical construct and hypothesis on a country-level and probably at the sectoral level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 546-557"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can money help to achieve the Paris agreement goal? the missing piece of the puzzle: How green monetary policy can bridge the emissions gap","authors":"Hafiz Muhammad Yasir Zia ,&nbsp;Wanping Yang ,&nbsp;Abdullah Masood ,&nbsp;Afaf Ahmed ,&nbsp;Salem Hamad Aldawsari","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the global commitment to reducing emissions outlined in the 13th Climate Action Plan and the Paris Agreement (aiming for a 43 % reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050), current efforts appear insufficient. While green technologies and sustainable practices are gaining traction, research on aligning monetary policy with environmental goals remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by exploring a framework of Green Monetary Policy (GMP) effectiveness in limiting emissions in G20 economies, using data from 2012–2022. The study adopts a modified New Keynesian Model (NKM) with CO2 emissions per capita as the dependent variable and six independent variables: GDP per capita (GDPPC), energy consumption per capita (ENCPC), energy prices (ENP), real interest rates (MP), broad money (M3), and green finance (GF). We apply Fully Modified and Dynamic OLS as long-run estimators and Quantile Regression for robustness. Additionally, Structural Equation Modeling assesses mediation, while Financial Structure and Promotion Theories guide a comparative analysis incorporating financial development and consumer price indices. Our findings reveal that GMP significantly reduces emissions, with MP, M3, GF, ENP, and CPI showing a negative impact. Conversely, GDPPC, ENCPC, and FDTI were positively associated with emissions. However, the effect of GDPPC on emissions can be mitigated through the mediating role of human capital. GDPPC and FDTI restrict the contribution of Environmental Regulations (ER) to reduce emissions. Moderation analysis indicates that ERMP increases emissions, while other interactions show no significant impact. This study also provided the theoretical base of the monetary resilience approach (MRA) to understand the monetary-energy-emission nexus (MEE nexus) to limit emissions by indicating the nonsystematic green money supply cycle. The study offers policy recommendations to central bankers and policymakers to play their role via the GMP framework for achieving the 13th Climate Action Plan in pursuance of Paris Agreement goals without compromising economic growth and environmental quality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 494-529"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143131905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of inclusive lending support on the performance of small and micro enterprises: Evidence from China","authors":"Dan Li ,&nbsp;Yanyang Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small and micro-sized enterprises (SMEs) are essential drivers of economic growth and innovation, yet they often face significant financial constraints that hinder their development. While many countries have introduced inclusive financial measures to address these challenges, evidence on the effectiveness of inclusive financial policy in improving SMEs' performance is scarce. Using a sample of Chinese SMEs from 2013 to 2022, this study examines the impact of China's inclusive lending policy on SMEs' performance. We find that the policy significantly enhances the performance of SMEs. Furthermore, the positive effect of the policy is more pronounced for financially constrained SMEs, specifically those with poor credit histories, low operational efficiency, or insufficient collateral assets. Our channel tests indicate that the inclusive lending policy enhances SMEs' performance primarily by improving their access to finance, rather than by reducing borrowing costs. Our study offers practical guidance for policymakers in designing targeted financial solutions for financially constrained SMEs and for financial institutions in managing credit risks arising from their support for broader economic inclusivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 353-370"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143131920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Constraining effects of local government debt on bank loan growth","authors":"Mingyao Cao,&nbsp;Keyi Duan,&nbsp;Haslindar Ibrahim","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In China's ever-evolving financial landscape, commercial banks are showing an increasing preference for local government bonds, viewing them as steadfast financial instruments. This study explores the complex relationship between banks’ growing preference for local government bonds and the resulting impact on their loan growth trajectories. Using a linear mixed model, empirical findings reveal that as local government debt increases, there is a corresponding slowdown in loan growth. Notably, city commercial banks, which are closely tied to local governmental structures, exhibit a more pronounced response to these fiscal changes compared to their joint-stock counterparts. Furthermore, strong political connections between banks and local governments tend to mitigate this negative relationship.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 371-382"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143131919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Discussing the role of urban renewal incentive policies based on housing price effects","authors":"Wen-Kai Wang ,&nbsp;I-Chun Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although policies to reward urban renewal are essential, their effects are difficult to measure. This paper takes Taipei City's “bulk reward policy” as an example to illustrate that the effectiveness of this type of incentive policy can be measured by changes in housing premiums of the properties that meet the policy. The policy is a floor area ratio reward policy, which is adopted to encourage people to renovate their old and dilapidated houses, solving the problem of buildings and infrastructure wearing out. This paper uses a theoretical model of real options to illustrate the possible impact of this rewarding policy, which states that if the policy is effective, the buildings that meet the reward type will increase the housing price due to the increase in the probability of redevelopment. This paper uses 16,865 transaction samples from 2019 to 2020 to verify the effect of the incentive policy revised by the Taipei City Government on December 19, 2019. The empirical tests also provide evidence showing that the increase in rewards can indeed boost housing prices. Through the analysis of this study, we can quantitatively measure the effectiveness of reward urban renewal policies based on changes in housing prices of old houses to be renovated. It will not only show the market's response to policies, but also capitalize the effects of urban renewal policies, providing a way to compare the benefits of urban renewal policies with their costs using monetary values. Urban renewal policies often involve the interests of many people and are complex. This paper contributes to this topic by providing a method for evaluating policies from a financial perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 275-291"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial market responses to the policy language of forward guidance: Evidence from China","authors":"Li Nie ,&nbsp;Yulong Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forward guidance is an innovative unconventional monetary policy tool used to manage expectations. This study not only investigates whether and how forward guidance influences financial markets but also explores its impact on cross-market correlations. Three key findings include: (1) larger absolute change in the tone of forward guidance increases currency market volatility but decreases treasury bond and stock market volatilities. The noise-reducing effect is primarily attributable to forward guidance on economic outlook rather than policy inclination, although their effectiveness has reversed since 2015. (2) A positive change in forward guidance tone decreases currency market interest rate, which is economically negligible, albeit statistically significant. Returns of other financial assets are not responsive to the change in forward guidance tone. (3) Forward guidance significantly influences cross-market correlations though the impacts show heterogeneity. Economic-outlook and policy-inclination forward guidance significantly affect the currency-bond correlation in the same direction while exert differential impacts on bond-stock and currency-stock correlations. Two important implications for expectation management are enhancing coordination between different types of forward guidance as well as improving the efficiency of information transmission in communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 317-335"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inclusive financial development and common prosperity: An empirical analysis using individual-level data","authors":"Hang (Robin) Luo ,&nbsp;Dawei Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship between inclusive finance development (IFD) and common prosperity (CP) in China is examined in this study using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), which were carried out in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020. The study reveals a positive association between IFD and CP at the individual level, supporting the hypothesis that IFD facilitates the attainment of CP by easing credit constraints, advancing the third distribution, and reducing information asymmetry. It further observes temporal and regional variations in the IFD-CP relationship, noting a pronounced promotional impact in economically prosperous areas. This study contributes to the literature by employing a novel individual-level dataset and investigating three distinct influencing channels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 261-274"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}