{"title":"Energy at risk: Exploring energy security in a geopolitically unstable world","authors":"Ping-Chuan Jiang , Gen-Fu Feng , Chun-Ping Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes data from 42 countries spanning from 1996 to 2021. The panel quantile regression model is applied to assess how geopolitical risk (GPR) affects energy security (ES) across varying ES levels. Empirical analysis reveals that, in nations with high levels of ES, GPR exerts a negative impact on ES, suggesting that heightened geopolitical tensions can compromise energy stability. Conversely, in nations with lower levels of ES, GPR has a positive impact, driving these nations to enhance their energy self-sufficiency. The findings reveal an inverted U-shaped change in the regression coefficients of GPR and ES, whereby the influence of GPR transitions from positive to negative as ES quantile rises. These results are robust to the inclusion of dynamic effects and additional control variables. Furthermore, supplementary analysis demonstrates that GPR incentivizes the adoption of renewable energy in countries with lower levels of ES. In conclusion, this study provides empirical insights to assist policymakers in designing differentiated energy policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Pages 231-244"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juan Tan , Xing-Yun Zou , Xin Zhang , Chun-Ping Chang
{"title":"Does national ESG performance move together with climate warming?","authors":"Juan Tan , Xing-Yun Zou , Xin Zhang , Chun-Ping Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving a balance between economic growth and climate change mitigation is essential for sustainable development. This research uses the panel data of 95 countries from 1990 to 2020, and conducts the Westerlund panel cointegration test to investigate the long-term bidirectional cointegration relationship between national environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and climate warming caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper takes a deeper look at the short- and long-term causal relationships using panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and vector error correction models (VECM). The results show that while the improvement of national ESG performance increases climate warming in the initial stage, it contributes to long-term mitigation in the future. In addition, the reduction of CO2 emissions per capita can significantly improve the mitigation in the long term, although the national ESG performance would decrease in the short term, the reduction of other GHG emissions can also improve the national ESG performance in both the short and long term. This research provides valuable insights for policy makers to improve national ESG performance, mitigate the climate crisis and promote sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Pages 19-29"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143609527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Import liberalization and pollution reduction: Firm-level evidence from Chinese manufacturing","authors":"Xiaosong Wang , Siyuan Tian , Yuding Zhou , Le Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Opening not only promotes domestic economic growth but also has an impact on the environment. This paper analyzes the impact of import liberalization on firms’ pollution emissions and its mechanism. We first analyze the impact and mechanism of import liberalization on firm pollution emissions through a theoretical model, then use the data of Chinese industrial firms for empirical analysis. Empirical analysis results show that cheaper imported inputs can significantly reduce firms’ emission of sulfur dioxide and chemical oxygen demand, whereas lower output tariffs have no significant impact. Lower input tariffs can reduce pollution intensity via productivity and clean technology effect. The pollution reduction effect of cheaper input is more obvious for general trade firms and foreign-funded firms. This paper provides a useful reference for how to promote the domestic environment under the context of global value chains and multiple trade risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Pages 1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143609545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Firm digitalization and inter-firm financing along the supply chain","authors":"Jinkang Zhang , Linlin Zhang , Shan Wang , Dazhuang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how customer-supplier financing relations are reshaped when the customer goes digital. We use trade credit to measure inter-firm financing along the supply chain and find that the customer's firm digitalization significantly reduces its reliance on inter-firm financing, particularly when its suppliers concentrate, or when its suppliers are at a long distance. Additional tests suggest that the efficiency-improving channel and the cost-saving channel are likely underlying mechanisms. Cross-sectional analysis find that the relationship between firm digitalization and inter-firm financing is more pronounced among firms with greater financial constraints, greater market competition, firms located in regions with greater financial development, and greater digital inclusive finance. We also find that the impact of firm digitalization is greater during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our paper provides new insights into the externalities of firm digitalization on supplier-customer relationships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Pages 98-116"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of FDI on the development of China's low-carbon economy in the context of the “Dual Circulation” policy","authors":"Xiaotong Wang , Yuezhu Wang , Gujie Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.03.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, China's open economy is evolving within the framework of the “Dual Circulation” policy, which emphasizes the “inner circulation” while ensuring that both the “inner circulation” and “external circulation” support each other. In this context, foreign direct investment (FDI) serves as a critical link between domestic and international markets, acting as a natural facilitator of the “Dual Circulation.” Additionally, FDI is a vital tool for achieving the “double carbon” goals, significantly contributing to increased carbon productivity and facilitating the transition to a green economy. This paper examines the impact of FDI on developing China's low-carbon economy using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2010 and 2021. The study tests the spatial autocorrelation of carbon productivity growth in each province using Moran's I and constructs a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to test the direct impact and spatial spillover effect of FDI policy. The results indicate that: (1) FDI has a significant spatial spillover effect on China's low-carbon economy. (2) FDI can significantly promote the development of a low-carbon economy in this province and inhibit the development of a low-carbon economy in neighboring provinces. (3) The heterogeneity analysis shows that FDI significantly promotes the development of a low-carbon economy in the eastern and central regions, while significantly inhibiting the development of a low-carbon economy in the western regions. (4) Analyses of spatial mediation effects show that FDI promotes low-carbon economic development by enhancing technological effects. The paper's findings offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of FDI attraction and low-carbon economic development policies in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"86 ","pages":"Pages 321-335"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Khanh Hoang , Cuong Nguyen , Toan Luu Duc Huynh , Hailiang Zhang , Van Thi Thuy Vu
{"title":"How does carbon transition risk drive corporate diversification? Evidence from heavy emitter firms in China","authors":"Khanh Hoang , Cuong Nguyen , Toan Luu Duc Huynh , Hailiang Zhang , Van Thi Thuy Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon-intensive firms are increasingly exposed to carbon transition risks stemming from evolving climate policies, forcing them to adapt to a low-carbon economy. While prior research focuses on direct environmental initiatives to mitigate carbon transition risks, limited attention has been given to corporate diversification as an alternative strategy. This study investigates the impact of carbon transition risks on revenue diversification of Chinese listed firms, employing a difference-in-differences framework with the Paris Agreement as an exogenous shock. We find a significant increase in diversification of heavy-emitting firms following the Paris Agreement compared to their counterparts, without a corresponding increase in environmental investments or green technology adoption. This response is notably pronounced among firms with state ownership and is weakened when investment irreversibility is high. The findings align with the real options perspective and provide new insights into corporate responses to climate policy changes within the unique context of China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1971-1994"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Greening through economic complexity: New evidence from Chinese cities","authors":"Mengying Ni , Zimin Liu , Zhuang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>“The stronger get stronger, the weaker get weaker”? Does the process of urban economic complexity exhibit a preference for green? This research utilizes the reflection iteration method to measure the economic complexity of Chinese cities and examines the impact of economic complexity on urban green development and its underlying mechanisms. The results are as follows: (1) the enhancement of economic complexity promotes the green development of urban economies, with enduring effects; (2) the green impact of economic complexity exhibits an increasing marginal trend, meaning that the higher the urban complexity, the stronger the marginal effect; (3) mechanism analysis indicates that economic complexity, on one hand, optimizes the developmental path of urban industries by squeezing out pollution-intensive and resource-dependent industries; on the other hand, economic complexity contributes to strengthening the urban innovation ecosystem, such as enhancing levels of urban innovation, entrepreneurship, technological advancement, R&D collaboration, and knowledge spillover. Additionally, the impact of economic complexity on urban green development is moderated by external constraints such as energy efficiency, environmental regulations, and public supervision; (4) heterogeneity analysis reveals that the green impact effect of economic complexity varies with the level of talent accumulation, administrative hierarchy, geographical location and industrial layout. This study offers valuable insights for optimizing urban development path and promoting green transformations in urban areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 2063-2090"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing geopolitical risk: Sovereign CDS insights from the Russo-Ukrainian War","authors":"Olivér Nagy , Gábor Neszveda","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how sovereign Credit Default Swaps’ (CDS) reactions reflect a country’s financial resilience to military conflicts, specifically analyzing the Russo-Ukrainian War. We find that sovereign CDS offers unique insights compare to equity markets. Sovereign CDS spreads had already started to increase at least two weeks before the outbreak of the war. Second, prior to the war, abnormal sovereign CDS spreads is correlated with financial vulnerability such as the Debt-to-GDP ratio, while after the outbreak of the war NATO membership and distance from Moscow become the significant predictor of abnormal sovereign CDS spreads indicating a shift in risk assessment dynamics towards geopolitical considerations. This divergence between equity market and sovereign CDS responses highlights their ability to capture different aspects of market sentiment and risk, underscoring the importance of sovereign CDS in evaluating the financial implications of geopolitical instability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1995-2006"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The effect of low-carbon city pilot policy on public health: An empirical analysis of adult health in China","authors":"Hongwen Chen , Jie Dian , Sihan Fan , Ying Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing concern about climate change and the promotion of green and low-carbon development has led to an increase in attention given to the health effects of Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy on adults in developing countries. However, limited research has been conducted in this area. This study employs the difference-in-differences approach to analyse the impact of LCCP policy on adult health and its mechanism. Our results indicate that LCCP policy has significantly improved the health of adults by decreasing the likelihood of residents' illness or injury in the last four weeks, reducing the probability of high blood pressure, and decreasing the prevalence of overnutrition. Robustness tests were conducted, and the results remain consistent. Our mechanism analysis reveals that LCCP policy has improved adult health by reducing pollutant emissions, upgrading industrial structures, and enhancing public services. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that urban areas and higher-income households are significantly impacted by the policy. Our study provides valuable insights into the evaluation of LCCP policy, recommending that policymakers consider implementing targeted measures in similar contexts to promote public health and sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 2043-2062"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic impact and policies for the obesity pandemic in emerging economies","authors":"Carlos J. García","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A complementary methodology to traditional econometric analysis is proposed to estimate the economic impact of healthy eating and to evaluate policies against the obesity pandemic in emerging countries. The impact of healthy eating is quantified with a structural model based on stylized facts to define preferences, the relationship between disease and obesity, and agents’ perception of healthy eating. To illustrate the methodology, the model is estimated with Bayesian econometrics for a representative emerging country (Chile). The methodology is complementary to other alternatives, contributing to quantify the second-round benefits of food programs and public policies. Thus, to the extent that evaluation programs indicate that one or another alternative is beneficial, our proposal will show how these benefits are transferred to the entire economy and its productivity. This helps to add another criterion to classify the different policies, reinforcing the design and debate of public policies in this area and, also, with other matters of public interest. The results indicate that an emerging economy may be foregoing a substantial part of its growth if the obesity pandemic is not adequately addressed with policies that change agents’ behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1949-1970"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}