Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献

{"title":"How does the urban digital economy drive labor allocation in China?—A perspective of factor mobility between digital and non-digital enterprises","authors":"Xiaole Qiao ,&nbsp;Yang He ,&nbsp;Qiang Du","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the perspective of labor factor mobility between digital and non-digital enterprises, this paper systematically explores the micro-mechanisms and impact of urban digital economy development on labor allocation. The results show that digital economic development significantly optimizes labor allocation between digital and non-digital enterprises within the same city and industry, but not across industries within the same city. This impact varies across regions and industries, with stronger effects in urban agglomerations, higher administrative-level cities, and capital-technology-intensive industries. The analysis of micro-mechanisms reveals that the urban digital economy drives the labor allocation through two key pathways: the employment \"creation-destruction\" effect and the labor productivity effect resulting from digital transformation. Additionally, the further analysis indicates that while the digital economy optimizes labor allocation between digital and non-digital enterprises, it decreases efficiency of labor allocation within non-digital enterprises. However, it does not significantly affect digital enterprises. This study contributes a comprehensive assessment of the labor allocation effects of the digital economy, providing empirical evidence and policy implications for leveraging labor allocation to release demographic dividends and promote Chinese-style modernization in the digital era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1159-1175"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Austerity reexamined: Uncovering the role of the shadow economy","authors":"Khalil Bechchani","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper challenges the conventional belief that austerity measures inherently trigger economic contraction. Leveraging a novel narrative dataset of fiscal consolidations across 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries (1989–2016), constructed by Carrière-Swallow, David, and Leigh (2021), I uncover that the impact of fiscal policy hinges significantly on the shadow economy's magnitude. Specifically, the output downturn post-fiscal consolidation is notable only in low-informality settings, with real GDP declining at impact by 1.12 % following tax hikes and 2.77 % in response to spending cuts. This effect is accompanied by crowding-out of domestic demand and higher unemployment. Intriguingly, economies with high informality levels exhibit resilience against austerity induced recession. This result holds regardless of the level of economic development, institutional quality, trade and financial openness, and the debt-to-GDP ratio.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1291-1317"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does ownership matter in driving green subsidies effects? A quasi natural experiment in China","authors":"Kebin Deng ,&nbsp;Zhong Ding ,&nbsp;Liuyang Ren ,&nbsp;Ziyun Xiang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the green-performance-evaluation policy boosting green subsidies for heavy polluting enterprises as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences (DID) method to confirm the substantial ownership impact on the relation between green subsidies and corporate environmental investment. Our findings indicate that state-owned involved enterprises significantly increase their environmental investment following the receipt of green subsidies, whereas non-state-owned involved enterprises temporarily reduce their environmental investment after receiving green subsidies. Mechanism analysis reveals that these differences stem from the inherent alignment between the objectives of state-owned enterprises and the government.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1079-1104"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"CEOs' hometown connections and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China","authors":"Fanjie Fu ,&nbsp;Shujie Yao ,&nbsp;Jing Fang ,&nbsp;Fan Zhang ,&nbsp;Chuan Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the relationship between CEOs' hometown connections with suppliers and analyst earnings forecast optimism. We put forward two hypotheses: CEOs' hometown connections increase the optimism bias of analysts and analysts take the initiative to lower their optimistic earnings forecasts in response to CEOs' hometown connections. Using the hand-collected data of CEOs' hometown connections in Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2020, the empirical results suggest that CEOs' hometown connections with suppliers are negatively associated with analyst optimism bias, and the finding holds up in the subsequent robustness tests. The hometown connections, as an informal institution, not only alleviate CEO moral hazard but also provide information advantage. This \"hometown effect\" is more pronounced for firms with lower-quality of information disclosure, lower transparency, lower-quality auditing, higher agency costs, and firms in provinces with weaker marketization. In general, this study demonstrates the importance of CEOs' hometown connections in analyst optimism bias, and it enriches and expands research on the determinant factors of analyst optimism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1031-1052"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Macro-level implications of the energy system transition to net-zero carbon emissions: Identifying quick wins amid short-term constraints","authors":"Marko Raseta ,&nbsp;Andrew G. Ross ,&nbsp;Stefan Vögele","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Countries are increasingly committing to achieving net-zero carbon emissions while addressing energy security concerns heightened Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. A key challenge lies in the long-term nature of these goals, which often conflict with shorter political cycles, necessitating consistent political commitment to transform energy systems and secure public support. Existing research frequently overlooks short-term impacts, focusing instead on long-term effects. However, an analysis centered on the short term can uncover immediate challenges, such as ensuring the security of energy supply, identifying potential bottlenecks and barriers that might hinder the timely implementation of policy interventions, and highlighting immediate benefits, such as job creation from renewable energy investments. These short-term considerations are crucial for fostering public support and facilitating a timely transition toward a sustainable energy future. This paper examines the short-term macroeconomic impacts of energy system transformations by utilizing a dynamic disequilibrium Input-Output model linked to an energy system optimization model. The results indicate potential dividends for both the environment and the economy, along with enhanced energy security. The analysis underscores important policy considerations, including potential crowding-out effects resulting from constrained labor markets and supply chains—elements that are often neglected but are crucial for achieving timely energy security and policy objectives. Given the current economic climate, influenced by the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, it is essential to take these potentially obstructive factors into account when planning and implementing energy, economic, and environmental policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1065-1078"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Self-regulation, media pressure, and corporate catastrophes","authors":"Edina Berlinger ,&nbsp;Judit Lilla Keresztúri ,&nbsp;Ágnes Lublóy","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To formalize the monitoring role of the media in corporate finance, we propose a new model of corporate catastrophic risk combining two disciplining forces: corporate self-regulation and media pressure. We assume that optimizing firms have a strong interest in hiding large operational loss events to avoid reputational losses. When a loss is revealed, the operation is immediately restored to its equilibrium, due to higher media attention. The model explains why public losses depend heavily on media attention but seem to be unrelated to the quality of internal governance. Internal governance has high impact on the hidden part of losses. Using the SAS Global Oprisk database, we test the model predictions for the period of 2011–2022 covering 4,547 loss events attributed to firms in the MSCI World index. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the theoretical model: higher media attention increases public losses but decreases total (the sum of public and hidden) losses in terms of both frequency and severity. We also find evidence that it may be easier to hide the actual size of large corporate losses than the occurrence of the loss event itself, especially within the financial sector. Promoting press freedom and market liquidity, prerequisites for media and investor attention, can be highly effective policies for improving corporate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1337-1356"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of business environment uncertainty on ESG performance from the perspective of resource supply and demand based on ESG performance","authors":"Lisha Jiang ,&nbsp;Wei Zhou ,&nbsp;Wu Hualiang ,&nbsp;Wei Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The performance of enterprises in environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) reflects the capacity for sustainable development, and the capacity for sustainable development is affected by the operating environment they face. Based on the supply and demand of ESG responsibility fulfillment resources, this study explores the impact of business environment uncertainty (including objective environmental uncertainty and environmental uncertainty perceived by enterprise management) on ESG performance and reveals the impact path of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2022. Results show that the objective environmental uncertainty and the environmental uncertainty perceived by enterprise management can considerably inhibit the ESG performance of enterprises. Compared with the environmental uncertainty perceived by the management, the objective environmental uncertainty has a more remarkable inhibitory effect on the ESG performance of enterprises. The mechanism analysis shows that uncertainty avoidance of financial intermediaries is the main path through which objective environmental uncertainty affects the ESG performance of enterprises, while uncertainty avoidance of enterprises is the main path through which environmental uncertainty perceived by management affects the ESG performance of enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the issuance of government environmental protection subsidies and the improvement of enterprise operating efficiency can considerably alleviate the inhibitory effect of objective environmental uncertainty on enterprise ESG performance, while government tax incentives, the improvement of enterprises' financial flexibility, and the improvement of strategic risk bearing ability can considerably alleviate the inhibitory effect of management's perceived environmental uncertainty on enterprise ESG performance. Optimizing the regional business environment can simultaneously alleviate the inhibition of the two environmental uncertainties on the ESG performance of enterprises. Based on the research findings, this study proposes policy suggestions and coping strategies to improve ESG performance under business environment uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1012-1030"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation and influencing factors of sustainable economic development: A spatial analysis in the Yellow River Basin","authors":"Zhenhua Zhang ,&nbsp;Chao Hua ,&nbsp;Malin Song ,&nbsp;Marshall S. Jiang ,&nbsp;Jianjun Miao ,&nbsp;Xue-Li Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>River basin cities often face significant conflicts between human activities and the environment. The Yellow River Basin, known for its long-standing energy industry, is one of China's key focus areas for developing new quality productive forces and promoting sustainable economic development (SED). This study employs a grey-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to analyze panel data from 99 cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2006 to 2019, evaluating the region's SED. Spatial econometric models are used to identify influencing factors. The results indicate that SED in the YRB exhibits strong positive spatial autocorrelation. Financial development has an N-shaped curve effect on SED, with its influence extending to surrounding areas. Human capital and foreign direct investment positively impact SED, while informatization inhibits it. Energy consumption efficiency significantly promotes SED. The impacts of all factors on SED are more pronounced in regions with higher real GDP per capita. Government control suppresses SED in high-economy areas but promotes it in low-economy areas. This research can help countries formulate local plans to promote SED in river basin cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 997-1011"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of regional finance reform and innovation policies on green innovation in pilot cities: A quasi-natural experiment","authors":"Shen Zhong,&nbsp;Zhicheng Zhou,&nbsp;Wei Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green innovation (GI) is crucial for improving public health, and regional financial reform and innovation (RFRI) policies play a key role in promoting financial development (FD) and enhancing innovation capacity (IC), thereby advancing GI. This paper systematically analyzes the relationship between RFRI policies and GI, utilizing panel data from 281 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2021 and employing a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, RFRI policies significantly promote GI in pilot areas, and this conclusion holds after a series of robustness tests. Second, RFRI policies enhance GI by fostering FD and IC. Third, an analysis of individual policies reveals that open and innovative RFRI policies have the most significant impact, while shared policies have a relatively weaker effect. Finally, heterogeneity analysis further shows that the effect of RFRI policies on GI is stronger in cities not subject to environmental protection interviews, regions with higher environmental protection taxes, areas with lower public environmental concern, general cities, and eastern regions. This study explores whether RFRI policies can promote GI, providing empirical evidence and policy recommendations for China's financial reforms and the green transformation of its economic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 888-911"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolving impacts of fiscal policy on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru","authors":"Alexander Meléndez ,&nbsp;Gabriel Rodríguez","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.12.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses the evolving impact of fiscal policy on Peru’s economic activity in 1995Q1-2018Q2 using unrestricted and restricted TVP-VAR-SV models as proposed by Chan and Eisenstat (2018a). The results highlight the necessity of including stochastic volatility, although there is no clear evidence for time-varying parameters. Shocks from government consumption growth and public investment growth significantly influence the forecast error variance decomposition and the historical decomposition of GDP growth. Conversely, the impact of tax revenue shocks remains weak throughout the study period. The public investment multiplier exceeds that of government consumption although both are less than 1, suggesting a limited capacity of fiscal policy to stimulate economic activity. The study also finds that external shocks (export price index growth) have a strong and positive impact on tax revenue growth. A series of robustness exercises further confirms these results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"85 ","pages":"Pages 1135-1158"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}