Economic Analysis and Policy最新文献_第5页

The impact of climate policy uncertainty on tail risk of energy companies: Evidence from China 气候政策不确定性对能源企业尾部风险的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.046

Na Zhang , Siyu Fan , Yuejiao Zhao , Hui Jiang

{"title":"The impact of climate policy uncertainty on tail risk of energy companies: Evidence from China","authors":"Na Zhang , Siyu Fan , Yuejiao Zhao , Hui Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of the accelerated advancement of the \"dual-carbon\" goals, climate policy uncertainty (CPU) has emerged as a critical driver behind the evolution of extreme risks for energy enterprises. Accurately identifying its operational mechanisms holds significant strategic importance for safeguarding national energy security and facilitating green transformation. To unravel the intrinsic mechanisms and potential impacts through which CPU exacerbates extreme risks for energy enterprises, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to systematically evaluate the pathways through which CPU affects the tail risks of energy enterprises, thereby providing a basis for risk early warning. Using Chinese energy-listed companies as the sample, with data spanning from April 2010 to December 2022, this paper measures the level of tail risks by applying the GARCH-VaR model. The findings reveal that CPU induces extreme risks for enterprises and significantly elevates their tail risk levels. Mechanism tests indicate that CPU increases enterprises' tail risks by undermining investor confidence and constraining corporate green innovation. Furthermore, the partial mediating role played by the level of corporate green innovation exhibits a \"suppression effect.\" In addition, non-state-owned enterprises and those with high analyst attention are more vulnerable to the impact of CPU in terms of tail risks. There are also significant regional disparities in the impact of CPU on the tail risks of energy enterprises across eastern, central, and western China. The results of this study provide certain policy implications for addressing the impact of CPU and preventing extreme losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 2620-2635"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144931897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

City commercial banks’ expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from China 城市商业银行扩张与企业创新：来自中国的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.020

Sai Wang , Shirong Zeng , Wenwu Xie

{"title":"City commercial banks’ expansion and firm innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Sai Wang , Shirong Zeng , Wenwu Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of city commercial banks (CCBs) on firm innovation in China using a quasi-natural experiment approach, focusing on the period from 1998 to 2008. We differentiate between local city commercial banks (LCBs) and non-local city commercial banks (NLCBs) to explore their distinct effects on firm innovation. Our findings reveal that while the entry of LCBs does not significantly affect innovation, NLCBs promote firm innovation by increasing competition in the local financial market and enhancing access to external financing. Our analysis further decomposes bank market concentration and shows that the pro-innovation effect is driven specifically by non-local banks that introduce effective competition, particularly in markets with high concentration. Additionally, we conduct heterogeneity analyses based on regional economic conditions and firm characteristics, such as financial constraints and ownership structure, to explore the varying effects of NLCB entry. We find that NLCBs have a stronger impact on financially constrained firms and private firms, as well as on regions with higher economic development. Our study highlights the dual role of NLCBs in driving innovation, particularly in capital-intensive industries, and suggests that regional economic capacity and firm characteristics play crucial roles in determining the effectiveness of banking deregulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Pages 2658-2673"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

More imports, more jobs? Micro evidence from manufacturing firms 更多的进口，更多的就业？来自制造企业的微观证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.043

Yang Xiao , Xiaoming Zhu , Jing Ma

引用次数: 0

Regional economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns and mitigation effects of stimulus checks and unemployment insurance COVID-19封锁对区域经济的影响以及刺激支票和失业保险的缓解效果

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.029

Daniel Centuriao , Caroline Welter , Amir B. Ferreira Neto , Fernando S. Perobelli

{"title":"Regional economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns and mitigation effects of stimulus checks and unemployment insurance","authors":"Daniel Centuriao , Caroline Welter , Amir B. Ferreira Neto , Fernando S. Perobelli","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a framework to simulate the regional economic impacts of crises using publicly available data, focusing on Southwest Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on existing literature, we use a partial hypothetical input–output extraction method integrating higher-frequency data to evaluate the effects of mitigation policies like stimulus checks and unemployment insurance. We simulate quarterly value-added and employment for Southwest Florida in 2020. Results show a sharp decline in value added in the second quarter, a strong third quarter rebound, and a slight contraction in the fourth quarter, with sectoral heterogeneity. Mitigation policies contributed to a partial recovery but were insufficient to fully offset the downturn in quarters two and four. While households received supplemental income, spending and savings patterns with supply constraints dominated the demand shock. Our framework expands on the existing tools in the literature, providing regional policymakers with a predictive evaluation method for crisis response strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"88 ","pages":"Pages 1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Epidemic shocks, structural monetary policy and SME financing in China 流行病冲击、结构性货币政策与中国中小企业融资

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.042

Yu-xuan Qu , Ye Guo , Yu-fei Qu

{"title":"Epidemic shocks, structural monetary policy and SME financing in China","authors":"Yu-xuan Qu , Ye Guo , Yu-fei Qu","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper extends the SIR-DSGE framework developed in Eichenbaum et al. (2021, 2022) to study the impacts of structural monetary policy—targeted central bank instruments designed to channel credit to specific sectors or markets, in response to epidemic shocks on SME financing. The model distinguishes between large enterprises (LEs) and SMEs by their labor intensity in production and working capital constraints, and incorporates four commonly used structural policy tools in China. Structural monetary policy tools take effects by incentivizing banks to offer financing support to SMEs. Results show that SMEs are more severely hit by the epidemic for their high labor-intensity in production and tighter working capital constraints, and structural monetary policy can mitigate the severity of an epidemic shock on the macroeconomy and SMEs, by lowering financing costs and increasing financing availability for SMEs. Whether for the economy as a whole or SMEs, structural monetary policy tools yields better stabilization effects than conventional monetary policy. Further analysis shows that the combination of structural and conventional monetary policy improves social welfare than with conventional monetary policy alone, and price-based structural monetary policy instruments are more desirable than quantity-based.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"88 ","pages":"Pages 54-79"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Policy incentives and collaborative diffusion of urban green innovation: Based on the green credit subsidy policy 城市绿色创新的政策激励与协同扩散——基于绿色信贷补贴政策

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.041

Meiyu Liu, Hongli Duan, Huiru Cui

引用次数: 0

ESG performance and capital market effectiveness – Evidence on stock liquidity in China ESG绩效与资本市场有效性——基于中国股票流动性的证据

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.038

NingNing Cao, QianNan Zeng

引用次数: 0

External shock and diversified landscape of China’s product export 外部冲击与中国产品出口多元化格局

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.040

Xin Gao , Shuo Kong , Yaowen Liu

{"title":"External shock and diversified landscape of China’s product export","authors":"Xin Gao , Shuo Kong , Yaowen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is of great practical significance to the high-quality development of its product export trade whether a country’s product exports can be effectively balanced through trade destruction and trade deflection under external shock and realize a diversified landscape. Based on the perspective of product diversification, this paper takes the trade policy uncertainty triggered by the U.S. imposing tariffs on China’s export products as an example, and makes an empirical study on the impact of China’s export products trade and how to diversify its layout. The conclusion shows that the increase of uncertainty of external tariff policies has a trade destruction effect on China’s exports to the U.S., which is mainly caused by the quantity margin, while the price margin and extensive margin have no destructive effect. But at the same time, the uncertainty of external tariff policies leads to the trade deflection effect of China’s product exports. That is, the export to other countries increases, which is mainly formed by the joint action of positive quantity margin, extensive margin, and price margin. Secondly, the trade deflection effect is beneficial to the diversified trade pattern of China’s product export, but there are significant differences in different export destinations, export regions, and product types. The above conclusion is robust. In addition, this paper discusses the mechanism of government R&D subsidies, the markup rate of export products and the advantage of large domestic market size, and the superposition effect of China’s internal policies uncertainty, external financial policy uncertainty and external tariff policies uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"88 ","pages":"Pages 80-108"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145046710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green finance and artificial intelligence: Catalysts for promoting sustainability? 绿色金融与人工智能：促进可持续发展的催化剂？

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.037

Jie Dou , Chi Wei Su , Wenyu Li , Junfeng Dou

{"title":"Green finance and artificial intelligence: Catalysts for promoting sustainability?","authors":"Jie Dou , Chi Wei Su , Wenyu Li , Junfeng Dou","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The roles of green finance (GF) and artificial intelligence (AI) are essential to be comprehensively investigated for promoting sustainability. This study uses the TVP-VAR-SV model to reveal the time-dependent interactions among GF, AI, and environmental, social and governance (ESG)-related uncertainty index (ESGUI). The empirical findings demonstrate that GF significantly reduces ESGUI, indicating its stabilizing role in sustainability markets. AI exhibits influences characterised by initial ESGUI elevation during early-stage implementation, except 2024-2025, followed by progressive ESGUI reduction in subsequent phases. It could be concluded that green finance and artificial intelligence promote sustainability, albeit with inherent lags of the latter. GF has a favourable impact on AI, while AI reciprocally enhances GF development during the observed periods except for COVID-19. Empirical comparisons demonstrate the TVP-VAR-SV model’s superior performance relative to the traditional VAR model in capturing time-varying parameter dynamics while maintaining result reliability. Further, other robustness tests, including extended control variables and alternative measures, consistently confirm the core results. Against the backdrop of increased uncertainties globally, this paper puts forward strategies used to augment the contribution of GF and AI in improving sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"88 ","pages":"Pages 13-25"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond electricity: The welfare effects of a residential electricity cash transfer in Vietnam 电力之外：越南居民电力现金转移的福利效应

IF 8.7 2区经济学

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.034

Cuong Viet Nguyen , Dinh Van Nguyen , Huong Lien Thi Nguyen , Thanh Cong Tran

{"title":"Beyond electricity: The welfare effects of a residential electricity cash transfer in Vietnam","authors":"Cuong Viet Nguyen , Dinh Van Nguyen , Huong Lien Thi Nguyen , Thanh Cong Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to adequate electricity remains a challenge for poor households in many developing countries due to affordability constraints. Since 2011, the Vietnamese government has implemented a nationwide cash transfer program aimed at supporting electricity consumption among low-income households. Using panel household survey data and household fixed-effects models, we assess how this transfer affects the electricity consumption and household welfare of recipients. Overall, we find no significant effect of the transfer on electricity consumption for most beneficiaries, consistent with electricity’s low income elasticity and indicating that it is a necessity good. However, we find two important results. First, while the transfer has no significant effect on electricity consumption for recipients as a whole, it has a positive and significant effect for ultra-poor households. This suggests that electricity use among the ultra-poor is constrained more by liquidity limitations than by a lack of demand. Second, we find that recipient households reallocate part of the transfer toward education and other non-food needs, subsequently contributing to a reduction in expenditure-based poverty. This finding highlights the fungibility of income and suggests that subsidy design should take into account liquidity constraints and households’ consumption preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":"88 ","pages":"Pages 109-131"},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0