Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity最新文献

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Outbreak of an emerging zoonotic Nipah virus: An emerging concern 新出现的人畜共患尼帕病毒的爆发:一个新出现的关切
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.002
Diptanu Paul , Aroop Mohanty , Abhishek Shah , Bijaya Kumar Padhi , Ranjit Sah
{"title":"Outbreak of an emerging zoonotic Nipah virus: An emerging concern","authors":"Diptanu Paul ,&nbsp;Aroop Mohanty ,&nbsp;Abhishek Shah ,&nbsp;Bijaya Kumar Padhi ,&nbsp;Ranjit Sah","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Nipah virus (NiV) infection is one of the newly emerging deadly zoonotic diseases which carries a significant weightage of mortality among its victims. Due to the relatively recent history of its emergence and only a few known outbreaks, we cannot predict but foresee its potential to create havoc, which can be far more dreadful than the current ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Here we have tried to depict the fatal potential of the virus and the increased propensity with which it can spread to rest of the world.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 57-59"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10127665/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9403761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Epidemiological and comparative genomic analyses of Multidrug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii collected between 2020 and 2022 in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, China 山东省聊城市2020-2022年采集的耐多药鲍曼不动杆菌流行病学及比较基因组分析
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.001
Fangyuan Cui , Li Liu , Xuefeng Miao , Haiying Qian , Shaocai Lu , Jinjing Tian , Guanhua Qiao , Baobin Shao , Qian Li , Ran Zhang , Shengnan Liang
{"title":"Epidemiological and comparative genomic analyses of Multidrug-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii collected between 2020 and 2022 in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province, China","authors":"Fangyuan Cui ,&nbsp;Li Liu ,&nbsp;Xuefeng Miao ,&nbsp;Haiying Qian ,&nbsp;Shaocai Lu ,&nbsp;Jinjing Tian ,&nbsp;Guanhua Qiao ,&nbsp;Baobin Shao ,&nbsp;Qian Li ,&nbsp;Ran Zhang ,&nbsp;Shengnan Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The emergence and prevalence of multidrug-resistant <em>Acinetobacter baumannii</em> (MRAB) poses a huge challenge to clinical treatment. To investigate the genetic and epidemiologic characteristics of MRAB in Liaocheng, China, and to explore potential resistance mechanisms, 56 MRAB strains were collected from the clinical departments of seven hospitals in Liaocheng between 2020 and 2022. Molecular typing, antimicrobial resistance patterns, and epidemiological characteristics were determined by genome sequencing and comparative genome analysis. Sequence type (ST) 540 was the most prevalent ST of the 56 MRAB in Liaocheng, and most strains (92.86%) were grouped into CC92. Core genome multilocus sequence typing subdivided the strains according to the number of allelic differences and could distinguish different outbreaks caused by ST540 isolates in the hospitals. All the isolates harbored <em>bla<sub>OXA-23</sub></em> and <em>bla<sub>ADC-25</sub></em>, and at least 92.86% of the isolates were resistant to 10 antibiotics. The major MRAB epidemic clone detected in Liaocheng was ST540, which was different from the results reported in other regions in China. Furthermore, several inter-hospital transmissions of ST540 isolates were observed. The findings highlight the urgent need for effective nosocomial infection control measures and the continuous surveillance of ST540 MRAB in Liaocheng.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 60-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46738221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The potential epidemic threat of Ebola virus and the development of a preventive vaccine 埃博拉病毒的潜在流行威胁和预防性疫苗的开发
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.05.001
Hong-Qing Zhang , Qiu-Yan Zhang , Zhi-Ming Yuan , Bo Zhang
{"title":"The potential epidemic threat of Ebola virus and the development of a preventive vaccine","authors":"Hong-Qing Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiu-Yan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhi-Ming Yuan ,&nbsp;Bo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ebola virus (EBOV) is classified as a category A pathogen as it causes viral hemorrhagic fever, one of the most-deadly virus-related diseases. Since its discovery in 1976, EBOV has caused a number of global public health incidents, which have posed a serious threat to both humans and non-human primates. Thus, numerous preventive vaccine studies are underway, including research on inactivated vaccines, DNA vaccines, subunit vaccines, virus-like particles, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus replicon particles, and several viral vector vaccines. The vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine Ervebo was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration and the European Union, and several other vaccines have also been proven to confer potent protection in non-human primates against EBOV lethal challenge. This review provides a brief background of EBOV, with a focus on the epidemiology, available animal models, and advances in preventive approaches for EBOV infection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 67-78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42155150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Efficiency of surface inactivation disinfectants for bacteria studied in an aquaculture microbiology laboratory” [J. Biosaf. Biosecurity 5(2) (2023) 84–86] 《水产养殖微生物实验室对细菌表面灭活消毒剂效果的研究》的勘误表[J]。Biosaf。生物安全5(2)(2023)84-86]
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.07.001
Manfred Weidmann
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Efficiency of surface inactivation disinfectants for bacteria studied in an aquaculture microbiology laboratory” [J. Biosaf. Biosecurity 5(2) (2023) 84–86]","authors":"Manfred Weidmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 2","pages":"Page 87"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48351818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ethical framework on risk governance of synthetic biology 合成生物学风险治理的伦理框架
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.002
Liao Bohua , Wang Yuexin , Ou Yakun , Zuo Kunlan , Liu Huan , Lei Ruipeng
{"title":"Ethical framework on risk governance of synthetic biology","authors":"Liao Bohua ,&nbsp;Wang Yuexin ,&nbsp;Ou Yakun ,&nbsp;Zuo Kunlan ,&nbsp;Liu Huan ,&nbsp;Lei Ruipeng","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Synthetic biology is an emerging multidisciplinary field that aims to design and construct new biological systems not found in nature. Whereas synthetic biology may yield tremendous benefits, it may also pose substantial risks to human health and the environment that must be addressed. In this paper, we examined the environmental risks associated with synthetic biology, including changes to or depletion of the environment, competition with native species, horizontal gene transfer, pathogenicity or toxicity, bioterrorism, and laboratory biosecurity. We highlight three approaches for assessing environmental risks in synthetic biology: solution-focused risk assessment, Bayesian networks, and network of networks for sustainable capacity building. An ethical governance framework is proposed to facilitate innovation while minimising risks. This framework emphasises the precautionary principle and balancing stakeholder interests prior to project development and commercialisation. Overall, we underscore the importance and urgency of assessing and managing the environmental risks of synthetic biology to ensure its safe and ethical development and application.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 2","pages":"Pages 45-56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47575235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Applications of the One Health concept: Current status in the Middle East “一个健康”概念的应用:中东的现状
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.01.001
Laith AL-Eitan, Suhaib Sendyani, Malek Alnemri
{"title":"Applications of the One Health concept: Current status in the Middle East","authors":"Laith AL-Eitan,&nbsp;Suhaib Sendyani,&nbsp;Malek Alnemri","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.01.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.01.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The One Health concept (OHC) seeks to improve the health of plants, animals, and humans because improving animal and plant health will increase the capacity for improving human health. Many risks such as plant and animal biotechnology applications have the potential to generate new diseases that can be transmitted to humans. In this way, the health of humans, animals, and plants is interrelated and depends on one another. However, it has been difficult to apply the OHC in some countries, such as those in the Middle East. The absence of financial support in the region is a major hindrance to applying this concept in the region. The application of the OHC requires the support of specialists who can advocate the government for support in launching OHC-related projects. Here, we discuss the OHC in the context of antimicrobial resistance, zoonotic diseases, and biosafety/biosecurity, which are important public health issues. Furthermore, we describe the current status of the OHC in the Middle East and recent research conducted related to this concept. There has been recent international solidarity in the application of the OHC to reduce risks that threaten the health of organisms. Several countries jointly launched the Global Health Security Agenda in 2014 with the aim of realizing a world that is free of infectious disease-related health risks. However, no previous review articles have examined the applications of the OHC in the Middle East region. This article discusses the OHC in terms of its needs and current applications in the Middle East.</p></div><div><h3>Methodology</h3><p>The following keywords were used in the search: “One Health,” “Middle East,” “medicinal plants,” “viruses,” “rabies,” “MERS,” and “antimicrobial resistance.” Related papers were obtained by searching for these keywords using available search engines, such as PubMed, Google Scholar, and Google search, as well as international organization websites.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The concept of One Health is relatively new and has not been applied in most countries, possibly because the value of this concept for improving human health is not well understood. The key principle defining this concept and its importance is the interdependency of plants, animals, and human health. By applying the OHC, humans can benefit from healthy plants and animals by enhancing their growing conditions, medications, and environments. This would in turn improve general human health by allowing the safe extraction of therapeutics and food resources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 21-31"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44228544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Potential threat of human pathogenic orthopoxviruses to public health and control strategies 人致病性正痘病毒对公共卫生的潜在威胁及控制策略
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.004
Yongli Zhang , Yuan Zhou , Rongjuan Pei , Xinwen Chen , Yun Wang
{"title":"Potential threat of human pathogenic orthopoxviruses to public health and control strategies","authors":"Yongli Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuan Zhou ,&nbsp;Rongjuan Pei ,&nbsp;Xinwen Chen ,&nbsp;Yun Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Orthopoxviruses (OPXVs) belong to a group of nucleo-cytoplasmic large DNA viruses. Human pathogenic OPXVs (hpOPXVs) include at least five viruses, among which smallpox virus and monkeypox virus are the most dangerous viral pathogens. Both viruses are classified as category-one human infectious pathogens in China. Although smallpox was globally eradicated in the 1980 s, it is still a top biosecurity threat owing to the possibility of either being leaked to the outside world from a laboratory or being weaponized by terrorists. Beginning in early May 2022, a sudden outbreak of monkeypox was concurrently reported in more than 100 disparate geographical areas, representing a public health emergency of international concern, as declared by the World Health Organization (WHO). In this review, we present the reasons for hpOPXVs such as monkeypox virus presenting a potential threat to public health. We then systematically review the historical and recent development of vaccines and drugs against smallpox and monkeypox. In the final section, we highlight the importance of viromics studies as an integral part of a forward defense strategy to eliminate the potential threat to public health from emerging or re-emerging hpOPXVs and their variants.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9811937/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9237658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A simple and effective aerosol pathogen disinfection test for a flowing air disinfector 流动空气消毒器简单有效的气溶胶病原体消毒试验
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.02.001
Xuling Liu , Zhiran Qin , Linqing Wang , Xiaoting Xie , Yifang Fu , Jianhai Yu , Zuxin Liang , Xiaoen He , Jingshu Li , Hong Dai , Jinxiu Yao , Qinghua Wu , Weiwei Xiao , Li Zhu , Chengsong Wan , Bao Zhang , Wei Zhao
{"title":"A simple and effective aerosol pathogen disinfection test for a flowing air disinfector","authors":"Xuling Liu ,&nbsp;Zhiran Qin ,&nbsp;Linqing Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaoting Xie ,&nbsp;Yifang Fu ,&nbsp;Jianhai Yu ,&nbsp;Zuxin Liang ,&nbsp;Xiaoen He ,&nbsp;Jingshu Li ,&nbsp;Hong Dai ,&nbsp;Jinxiu Yao ,&nbsp;Qinghua Wu ,&nbsp;Weiwei Xiao ,&nbsp;Li Zhu ,&nbsp;Chengsong Wan ,&nbsp;Bao Zhang ,&nbsp;Wei Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Aerosol transmission is an important disease transmission route and has been especially pertinent to hospital and biosafety laboratories during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The thermal resistance of airborne SARS-CoV-2 is lower than that of <em>Bacillus subtilis</em> spores, which are often used to test the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogen disinfection methods. Herein, we propose a new method to test the disinfection ability of a flowing air disinfector (a digital electromagnetic induction air heater) using <em>B. subtilis</em> spores. The study provides an alternative air disinfection test method. The new test system combined an aerosol generator and a respiratory filter designed in-house and could effectively recover spores on the filter membrane at the air outlet after passing through the flowing air disinfector. The total number of bacterial spores used in the test was within the range of 5 × 10<sup>5</sup>–5 × 10<sup>6</sup> colony-forming units (CFUs) specified in the technical standard for disinfection. The calculation was based on the calculation method in Air Disinfection Effect Appraisal Test in Technical Standard for Disinfection (2002 Edition). At an air speed of 3.5 m/s, we used a digital electromagnetic induction air heater to disinfect flowing air containing 4.100 × 10<sup>6</sup> CFUs of <em>B. subtilis</em> spores and determined that the minimum disinfection temperature was 350 °C for a killing rate of 99.99%. At 400 °C, additional experiments using higher spore concentrations (4.700 × 10<sup>6</sup> ± 1.871 × 10<sup>5</sup> CFU) and a higher airspeed (4 m/s) showed that the killing rate remained&gt;99.99%. <em>B. subtilis</em> spores, as a biological indicator for testing the efficiency of dry-heat sterilization, were killed by the high temperatures used in this system. The proposed method used to test the flowing air disinfector is simple, stable, and effective. This study provides a reference for the development of test systems that can assess the disinfection ability of flowing air disinfectors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 32-38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10014499/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9377933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Human genome editing after the “CRISPR babies”: The double-pacing problem and collaborative governance “CRISPR婴儿”之后的人类基因组编辑:双重起搏问题与协同治理
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.003
Leifan Wang , Lijun Shang , Weiwen Zhang
{"title":"Human genome editing after the “CRISPR babies”: The double-pacing problem and collaborative governance","authors":"Leifan Wang ,&nbsp;Lijun Shang ,&nbsp;Weiwen Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How to ensure the safe, effective, and ethical use of emerging biotechnologies, such as clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)-based genome editing, is a global challenge. The occurrence of the “CRISPR babies” in 2018 publicly brought this issue into sharp focus, and led to comprehensive regulatory reforms in China and various countries around the world. The current article analyzes this event-driven regulatory reform in China by elaborating the most salient provisions designed to prevent risk and protect individual rights, public health, and social morality relating to human genome editing in four important sectors of law: biosecurity law, civil code, criminal law and patent law. It highlights that, although regulation is being undertaken, the gaps between the law and advancing technology remain discernible, at both a national and transnational level (i.e., the “double-pacing problem”). Further attention and collaboration will be required to address the ongoing challenges associated with the use of human genome editing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 8-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47825504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Study on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, with prediction of its tendency 2022年11月至2023年1月中国大陆新冠肺炎疫情研究及趋势预测
Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.001
Yao Bai , Zhihang Peng , Fengying Wei , Zhen Jin , Jinjie Wang , Ximing Xu , Xinyan Zhang , Jun Xu , Zixiong Ren , Bulai Lu , Zhaojun Wang , Jianguo Xu , Senzhong Huang
{"title":"Study on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, with prediction of its tendency","authors":"Yao Bai ,&nbsp;Zhihang Peng ,&nbsp;Fengying Wei ,&nbsp;Zhen Jin ,&nbsp;Jinjie Wang ,&nbsp;Ximing Xu ,&nbsp;Xinyan Zhang ,&nbsp;Jun Xu ,&nbsp;Zixiong Ren ,&nbsp;Bulai Lu ,&nbsp;Zhaojun Wang ,&nbsp;Jianguo Xu ,&nbsp;Senzhong Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jobb.2023.03.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, based on reported data from December 9, 2022, to January 30, 2023, released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1, 2023. Three kinds of reported data were used for model fitting: the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths, and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients. It was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.54% and the overall case fatality rate was 0.078%–0.116% (median 0.100%). Assuming that a new COVID-19 epidemic outbreak would start in March or April of 2023, induced by a slightly more infectious mutant strain, we predicted a possible large rebound between September and October 2023, with a peak demand of between 800,000 and 900,000 inpatient beds. If no such new outbreak was induced by other variants, then the current COVID-19 epidemic course in mainland China would remain under control until the end of 2023. However, it is suggested that the necessary medical resources be prepared to manage possible COVID-19 epidemic emergencies in the near future, especially for the period between September and October 2023.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":52875,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity","volume":"5 1","pages":"Pages 39-44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10030260/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9282451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
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