BMC global and public health最新文献

{"title":"The role of embedded Non-Governmental Organisations and other stakeholders in building resilience to cyclone-related crises in Madagascar: a qualitative study.","authors":"Mateus Kambale Sahani, Vikas Mohan, Neha S Singh, Janet Seeley, Susannah H Mayhew","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00300-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00300-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Madagascar has been seriously affected by climate change with a particular impact on population health, wellbeing, and livelihoods. The country is prone to cyclones with floods as immediate consequences creating a cascade of crises. This study aims to understand how stakeholders (state and Non-Governmental Organisations) engage with communities to respond to cyclone-related shocks, how communities themselves respond, and what factors facilitate or hinder these partnerships.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This qualitative study collected data though In-Depth Interviews (IDIs) from community members, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) from stakeholders, and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) from community members in Ambanja district of Madagascar. Data collection was guided by a realist-informed approach collecting data specific to Context, Mechanisms, and Outcome (CMO) of community engagement and involvement (CEI) for the response to cyclone-related crises. Data were presented as narrative summaries before going thorough framework analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This study identifies three pathways enabling community resilience. First, timely cyclone early-warning communication from trusted stakeholders from local actors and supporting Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) facilitates community involvement and saves lives during cyclone events. Second, embedded NGOs who are committed to working with communities play a pivotal role in building trust and delivering jointly long-term interventions essential for sustained resilience. Third, existing community social capital-including local knowledge, labour and solidarity networks-represents vital yet underutilised resources for effective intervention design. However, two fundamental challenges systematically undermine resilience-building efforts. Most significantly, the predominance of short-term partnerships means that only a few NGOs engage in long-term interventions, leaving substantial community needs unmet and limiting resilience to survival rather than at levels to thrive. Additionally, ignoring local knowledge and social norms leads to waste of resource through non-sustainable interventions, exemplified by water facilities that were rapidly destroyed because stakeholders failed to incorporate community insights about flood-resistant design.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Whilst communities possess considerable adaptive capacity, and strong social solidarity, greater resilience requires sustained institutional commitment to longer-term engagement and support to address community needs. This needs a systematic integration of existing community knowledge and networks, rather than continued reliance on short-term, externally designed interventions that neither build upon local strengths nor address underlying vulnerabilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13348428/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148428088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges in conducting research in community settings and community engagement strategies in response.","authors":"Tanvir C Turin, Nashit Chowdhury, Mohammad M H Raihan, Renzo Masiclat, Nafiza Rahman, Nahid Rumana","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00298-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00298-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Traditional research paradigms have often treated communities primarily as passive sources of data, resulting in extractive practices that overlook local priorities and knowledge systems. Community-Based Research (CBR) challenges this dynamic by emphasizing equitable co-ownership of research processes, shared decision-making, and active participation of community members  throughout the research process. This review article examines  challenges in conducting CBR and how multifaceted community engagement strategies can serve as an essential response. Specifically, the review uses a framework-mapping approach to explore their areas of relevance and contribution. The challenges span multiple dimensions, including ethical and equitable partnerships, collaboratively defining research priorities, co-designing methods, fostering community capacity, ensuring sustainability of partnerships, and meaningfully assessing outcomes over time. Importantly, these challenges are not static; they shift in nature and intensity across different stages of the research lifecycle and vary according to community, cultural, and contextual factors. Mapping these challenges against community engagement frameworks highlights areas of convergence and complementarity, illustrating how different approaches contribute to addressing distinct aspects of CBR. The review underscores that addressing these challenges requires flexible, relational approaches rooted in genuine power-sharing, supported by institutional commitment to long-term collaboration. Embedding comprehensive, context-specific engagement strategies into CBR is critical to ensuring research is methodologically sound, socially responsive, culturally attuned, and co-owned by communities. No single framework fully encompasses the breadth of challenges encountered in CBR, underscoring the value of integrating complementary engagement approaches. Such practices enable research to move beyond knowledge extraction toward a collaborative and transformative endeavor conducted with, by, and for communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13348294/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148414525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sitting still while the world gets sicker: Rethinking physical inactivity as a public health emergency.","authors":"Kim Daniels, Kirsten Quadflieg, Jochen Bergs, Annemie Spooren, Dominique Hansen, Bruno Bonnechère","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00295-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00295-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Physical inactivity (PI) has emerged as a \"forgotten pandemic\" in global health. Over a quarter of adults worldwide fail to meet recommended physical activity (PA) levels, a proportion that has remained largely unchanged since 2001. This inactivity drives a rising non-communicable disease burden, deepens health inequities, and generates substantial economic costs. Yet preventive action and dedicated funding remain insufficient. Despite international frameworks and national PA plans, with nearly 75% of countries reporting relevant policies, implementation remains inconsistent and population-wide impact elusive. Global efforts are constrained by systemic policy blind spots. Health in All Policies, a governance approach that integrates health considerations into policy decisions across sectors such as urban planning and education, remains widely endorsed but rarely enacted, foreclosing opportunities for action. Viewed through an equity lens, existing strategies disproportionately benefit more advantaged populations, leaving underserved groups behind. These shortcomings are compounded by short political cycles and chronic underinvestment in prevention, which prioritize short-term political wins over long-term gains. A fundamental paradigm shift is required, from fragmented, individually focused initiatives towards a multilevel, systems-based approach that aligns global, national, and local action. PA must be reframed as a societal investment, rather than a lifestyle choice contingent on individual responsibility. Genuine population-level empowerment stems not from placing the burden on individuals, but from creating environments and policies that enable active living. We call on global health leaders to elevate PA promotion to the forefront of political agendas, supported by increased funding, long-term vision, rigorous implementation, and targeted interventions for underserved populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13321891/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148364793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Satellite-derived longitudinal evidence of flood effects on community water and sanitation resilience in coastal Kenya.","authors":"Felix Oluoch, Rosebella Iseme Ondiek, Fredrick Gudda, Alfred Keter, Rachel Odhiambo, Jai Das, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Anthony K Ngugi","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00291-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00291-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Flooding can disrupt water, sanitation and hygiene services in low-income rural and peri-urban settings, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on how repeated flood exposure affects safe water and sanitation over time at the level of Community Health Units (CHUs), which are the operational units for primary health care in Kenya.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed repeated CHU-level data from ten Community Health Units in Kilifi County, Kenya, across eleven surveillance rounds from 2017 to 2024. For each round, we calculated the percentage of households with safe drinking water and with access to a functional latrine, and linked these outcomes to flood exposure derived from Sentinel-1 radar imagery at 10 m resolution during the relevant CHU-specific survey window. We fitted linear mixed-effects models with CHU random intercepts, adjusting for elevation and land cover composition, and constructed comparative flood-adjusted resilience scores.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We analysed 220 CHU-round observations. The flood-by-outcome interaction was negative and statistically significant: a one standard deviation increase in flood frequency was associated with a 5.6% point greater decline in functional latrine coverage than in safe water coverage (flood-by-outcome interaction coefficient = -5.63; 95% CI: -9.33 to -1.93; p = 0.003). The rural versus peri-urban contrast also differed by outcome. Rural CHUs had substantially lower safe water coverage than peri-urban CHUs, whereas the rural versus peri-urban difference in latrine coverage was much smaller. Comparative resilience scores showed a clear gradient, with peri-urban CHUs generally ranking highest and several rural CHUs clustering at the lower end of the distribution, particularly for safe water resilience.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Repeated flooding was associated with greater disruption of functional latrine access than safe water access, and rural disadvantage was concentrated mainly in safe water coverage. Although the resilience scores are comparative CHU-level planning tools rather than absolute measures of system resilience, they can help identify low-performing units and guide targeted investments in protected water systems and flood-resistant sanitation in coastal Kenya.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13295713/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148321487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and zoonotic spillover: lessons from recent hantavirus events.","authors":"Wenbiao Hu, Ting Gan","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00294-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00294-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13282846/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148285082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Health inequalities among non-lesbian, gay and bisexual sexual minority adolescents: Findings from a national UK cross-sectional study.","authors":"Amal R Khanolkar","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00286-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00286-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sexual minority individuals who identify with sexual identities other than lesbian, gay, bisexual (LGB) have increased risk for poor mental health. However, most health research focuses on LGB groups often excluding other sexual minority identities. This study examined 1) sociodemographic characteristics and 2) a range of health indicators and health-related behaviours in other sexual minority identities ([OSI], including those who do not disclose their sexual identity) and in comparison, to LGB and heterosexual peers using data from the UK-wide Millennium Cohort Study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study included 9,998 adolescents (53% assigned male sex at birth, 19.8% LGB and 2% OSI) aged 17 years. Sexual identity was self-reported, and included heterosexual [reference], sexual minority [LGB] and OSI (other sexual minority identities, did not disclose, not known). Multinomial logistic regression examined sociodemographic characteristics (assigned sex at birth [ASAB], gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic position) of the OSI group in comparison to the heterosexual group. Associations between sexual identity and mental (like psychological distress, self-harm, attempted suicide) and general (like obesity) health, and health-related behaviours (like smoking, alcohol frequency) were analysed using multivariable logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Female ASAB participants (Relative risk ratio [RRR] 2.62, 95% CI 1.81-3.77) and those from families with lower parental income were more likely to be classified in the OSI group, compared to heterosexuals. OSI individuals had increased odds for all mental health (example, Prevalence Odds Ratio [POR] 3.7, 2.55-5.35 for psychological distress, POR 2.73, 1.71-4.35 for attempted suicide), and general health indicators (example, POR 1.77, 1.22-2.57 for obesity), most often similar in strength to LGB peers. OSI individuals had lower PORs for most health-related behaviours (example, POR 0.46, 0.32-0.67 for ever smoking, POR 0.60, 0.39-0.93 for ever drug use, POR 0.25, 0.17-0.39 for ever had sex).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Compared to heterosexual adolescents, those who identify with OSI have substantially increased prevalence for a wide range of health problems comparable in strength to the LGB group. However, the OSI group did not have increased odds for health-related behaviours as observed in the LGB group. Future studies should include OSI individuals in research on sexual minority health ensuring better representation of all sexual identities.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13277100/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148280708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mobility-informed metapopulation models predict the spatio-temporal spread of respiratory epidemics across scales.","authors":"Aakash Pandey, Lu Zhong, Lior Rennert","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00293-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00293-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Predicting where and when epidemics will spread is essential for guiding early public health responses, yet remains challenging when surveillance data are sparse. Mobility-based approaches offer a promising alternative by leveraging human movement patterns to predict spatial spread without requiring detailed epidemiological data.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We evaluated the ability of mobility-informed effective distance to predict the relative timing of epidemic onset for three respiratory pathogens: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), seasonal influenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We compared effective distances derived from county-level commuting data, airline traffic flows, and a theoretical radiation model within a metapopulation framework. Analyses were conducted at the county level across South Carolina for all three pathogens and at the state level across the United States for influenza and SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Effective distance reliably predicted the relative order of epidemic onset across pathogens and spatial scales. Across all analyses, epidemics arrived earlier in larger, more connected populations, and effective distance outperformed geographic distance as a predictor of onset timing. In metapopulation simulations of a hypothetical respiratory pathogen, radiation-model effective distance was highly correlated with simulated arrival times (Spearman's ρ = 0.95, 95% CI [0.90 to 0.98]), substantially outperforming commuting-based effective distance (ρ = 0.54, 95% CI [0.24 to 0.75]). In empirical analyses at the county level in South Carolina, radiation-model effective distance consistently outperformed commuting-based measures for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first wave (ρ = 0.62 vs. 0.39), the 2022-2023 influenza season (ρ = 0.57 vs. 0.44), and the 2022-2023 RSV season (ρ = 0.70 vs. 0.47). At the state level, airline-based effective distance predicted arrival timing for COVID-19 (ρ = 0.46, 95% CI [0.19 to 0.66]) and onset timing for the 2024/2025 influenza season (ρ = 0.45, 95% CI [0.14 to 0.66]).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Mobility-informed models capture consistent spatiotemporal patterns of epidemic spread across pathogens and scales. These findings support their use as scalable, data-efficient tools for early outbreak preparedness.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13277207/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148280669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extracting homogenous data from heterogenous diseases: RaraSwed, the Swedish national rare disease quality registry.","authors":"Sanna Mansoob, Dan Hellström, Magnus Burstedt, Malin Grände, Cecilia Gunnarsson, Stephanie Juran, Lovisa Lovmar, Katarina Sandgren, Maria Johansson Soller, Anna Wedell, Cecilia Soussi Zander, Alexandra Wennberg, Marie Stenmark Askmalm","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00276-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00276-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the Swedish universal healthcare system, persons living with rare diseases (PLWRD) face major challenges in receiving diagnosis and accessing care,stemming in part from heterogeneity of disease and systemic barriers to care. This contributes to health inequity and a lack of visibility for PLWRD within thehealth system. This Perspective paper provides an overview of the facilitators and challenges during the development and implementation of a national raredisease (RD) quality registry, RaraSwed. The registry collects data on RD diagnosis. Adopting a social innovation and systems thinking methodology, inaddition to governance, have proven beneficial. RaraSwed supports RD research, evidence-based RD care, and Sweden's National Quality Policy and Strategy(NQPS) for RD. Future modules on patient-reported and physician-reported data on care coordination, treatment and clinical attributes will capture the holisticpatient experience. RaraSwed may contribute to health equity for PLWRD in Sweden and in turn facilitate international RD data harmonisation.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13270570/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148261217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Routine immunization uptake and timeliness in young children exposed to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: A secondary analysis of the Tuberculosis Child Multidrug-Resistant Preventive Therapy multi-site randomised controlled trial.","authors":"Faeezah Patel, Susan Purchase, Mrinmayee Dhar, Elizea Horne, Janet Grab, Hamisha Soma-Kasiram, Nadia Sabet, Neil Martinson, Suzanne Staples, Joanna Brigden, Thomas Wilkinson, Hendrik Simon Schaaf, James Seddon, Lee Fairlie, Anneke Hesseling, Trinh Duong","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00290-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00290-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) reduces vaccine preventable disease-related childhood morbidity and mortality. Vaccine coverage and timeliness are crucial to maximise protection in children < 5 years old. This is especially important for children living in households affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Tuberculosis Child Multidrug-Resistant Preventive Therapy (TB-CHAMP), a randomised controlled trial of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) prevention, enrolled participants at five sites across South Africa between 26 Sep 2017 and 21 Jan 2023. In this secondary exploratory analysis, we analysed the coverage and timeliness of EPI vaccinations due by 12 months of age and associations between delayed/non-vaccinations and pre-defined factors relating to child participant, adult MDR-TB index patient, and household. Early, on-time, and delayed vaccinations were defined as > 5 days before, within 28 days of, and > 28 days after the projected dates, respectively. Modified Poisson regression was used to assess factors associated with delayed/non-vaccination and vaccination completeness. The COVID-19 period was defined as the 6 months after the start of South African lockdown.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 922 enrolled children, 814 children < 5 years with complete immunisation records were included. There was equal sex distribution, median age was 2.5 years (IQR 1.2-3.8), 35% were HIV-exposed, and 1% living with HIV. EPI coverage was over 80% across all vaccine types, excluding measles, with a trend towards an increase in delayed doses and non-vaccination as children aged. Two-dose measles vaccination coverage was 70.6% with 11.3% not having any measles vaccination. We found associations between delayed/non-vaccination with the primary caregiver being the MDR-TB index patient, lower household socioeconomic status and the site where children enrolled. We did not observe increased delays and non-vaccination during the COVID-19 period.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>EPI coverage in this vulnerable population was reasonable, except for measles, which was low. There was a trend towards increasing delays and non-vaccination with age. Targeting vaccination interventions at households affected by TB and poorer households emphasising caregiver education on routine vaccination especially as children age is important.</p><p><strong>Trial registration: </strong>South African National Clinical Trials Register (SANCTR) (RefDOH270117530) and UK's Clinical Study Registry (Ref ISRCTN92634082, https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN92634082.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13274037/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148267654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Yellow fever outbreak potential in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen: a mathematical modelling study.","authors":"Keith Fraser, Laurence Cibrelus, Jennifer Horton, Chiori Kodama, J Erin Staples, Katy A M Gaythorpe","doi":"10.1186/s44263-026-00284-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s44263-026-00284-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The importation of arbovirus diseases into new countries is a global concern. This risk is exacerbated by human movement and climate change effects. In the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean regional office, three countries - Djibouti, Somalia, and Yemen - are currently classified as potential or moderate risk for yellow fever (YF) outbreaks.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Here we present a quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction and propagation of yellow fever virus (YFV) transmission in Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen. This modelling has two components: i) projecting the risk of importation of infectious individuals into the countries of interest using a radiation model of human movement and ii) estimating the risk of onward transmission given importation using a dynamic compartmental model of yellow fever virus transmission. Both components are multiplicatively combined to give an overall relative outbreak risk combining both risk of importation and risk of an outbreak given importation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We show that areas such as the western coast of Yemen, regions of Somalia bordering Ethiopia and Kenya, and Djibouti City have potential for YF outbreaks (where the estimated probability of an outbreak given an imported infectious case is over 50%). This is due to environmental suitability for transmission based on factors such as temperature and projected human mobility between endemic and at-risk regions.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Countries bordering existing YF endemic regions are potentially vulnerable to both introduction of YF cases and subsequent outbreak spread. This promotes the awareness of YF importation potential when conducting clinical surveillance in at-risk countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":519903,"journal":{"name":"BMC global and public health","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13245028/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148207510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}