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Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression 炉边谈话：大萧条时期的沟通与消费者期望
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01200
Mathieu Pedemonte
{"title":"Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression","authors":"Mathieu Pedemonte","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01200","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper shows how policy announcements can be used to manage expectations. Using regional variation in radio exposure, I evaluate the impact of FDR’s 1935 Fireside Chat, in which he showcased the introduction of important social policies, establishing a new expansionary cycle of the New Deal. I document that cities with higher exposure to the announcement exhibited a significant increase in spending on durable goods. The estimated effect is consistent with changes in expectations in line with the policies announced. This paper shows the power of communication as a policy tool.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141722265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing 量化宽松的结构性研究
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01205
Gregor Boehl, Gavin Goy, Felix Strobel
{"title":"A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing","authors":"Gregor Boehl, Gavin Goy, Felix Strobel","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01205","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using nonlinear Bayesian methods that fully account for the binding zero lower bound (ZLB), we estimate a large-scale macrofinance DSGE model on U.S. data. Counterfactual analysis suggests that by easing financing conditions, quantitative easing facilitated a net increase in aggregate investment. The resulting expansion of firms’ production capacities lowered their marginal costs. These disinflationary supply side effects dominated over the inflationary effects induced by the stimulus to aggregate demand. At the ZLB, the concomitant rise in real interest rates, in turn, induced a net fall in aggregate consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Higher Education and Local Educational Attainment: Evidence from the Establishment of U.S. Colleges 高等教育与地方教育成就：来自美国高校建立的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01214
Lauren C. Russell, Lei Yu, Michael J. Andrews
{"title":"Higher Education and Local Educational Attainment: Evidence from the Establishment of U.S. Colleges","authors":"Lauren C. Russell, Lei Yu, Michael J. Andrews","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01214","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We investigate how the presence of a college affects local educational attainment. As counterfactuals for current college locations, we use historical “runner-up” locations that were strongly considered to become college sites but were ultimately not chosen. We find that winning counties today have college degree attainment rates 56% higher than runner-up counties and more private-sector employment in human-capital-intensive industries. These effects are not driven primarily by recent in-migration of educated adults, and alternative public investments did not have similar effects on local educational attainment. The results indicate that colleges played an important role in shaping long-run local outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reading the Candlesticks: An OK Estimator for Volatility 阅读烛台：波动率的确定估算器
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01203
Jia Li, Dishen Wang, Qiushi Zhang
{"title":"Reading the Candlesticks: An OK Estimator for Volatility","authors":"Jia Li, Dishen Wang, Qiushi Zhang","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01203","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We propose an <em>Optimal candlesticK (OK)</em> estimator for the spot volatility using high-frequency candlestick observations. Under a standard infill asymptotic setting, we show that the OK estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has minimal asymptotic variance within a class of linear estimators. Its estimation error can be coupled by a Brownian functional, which permits valid inference. Our theoretical and numerical results suggest that the proposed candlestick-based estimator is much more accurate than the conventional spot volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns. An empirical illustration documents the intraday volatility dynamics of various assets during the Fed chairman’s recent congressional testimony.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets 低工资劳动力市场技术替代的演变
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01222
Daniel Aaronson, Brian J. Phelan
{"title":"The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets","authors":"Daniel Aaronson, Brian J. Phelan","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01222","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses minimum wage hikes to evaluate the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that automation is accelerating and supplanting a broader set of low-wage routine jobs since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Simultaneously, low-wage interpersonal jobs are increasing and offsetting routine job loss. However, interpersonal job growth does not appear to be enough, as it was prior to the financial crisis, to fully offset the negative effects of automation on low-wage routine jobs. Employment losses are most evident among non-Asian people of color who experience outsized losses at routine jobs and smaller gains at interpersonal jobs.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP 货币政策、标价离散和全要素生产率总量
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01226
Matthias Meier, Timo Reinelt
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP","authors":"Matthias Meier, Timo Reinelt","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01226","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the role of markup dispersion and aggregate TFP for monetary transmission. Empirically, we show that the response of markup dispersion to monetary policy shocks can account for a significant fraction of the aggregate TFP response in the first two years after the shock. Analytically, we show that heterogeneous price rigidity can explain the response of markup dispersion if firms have a precautionary price-setting motive, which is present in common New Keynesian environments. We provide empirical evidence in support of this explanation. Finally, we study the mechanism and its implications in a quantitative model.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"107 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality 监禁对死亡率的影响
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01224
Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Jeffrey Weaver
{"title":"The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality","authors":"Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Jeffrey Weaver","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01224","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyzes the effect of incarceration on mortality using administrative data from Ohio between 1992 and 2017. We first document that long-run survival is higher among the incarcerated than similar nonincarcerated defendants. Using event study designs centered around the time of release, we show why: mortality risk halves during the period of incarceration, with large reductions in murders, overdoses, and natural causes of death. However, incarceration does not increase postrelease mortality, and so the overall effect is increased longevity. These estimates reflect the high-risk environment faced by defendants when not incarcerated and suggest noncarceral policies to reduce these risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition 酒精、暴力和伤害导致的死亡率：来自现代禁酒令的证据
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01228
Kai Barron, Charles D. H. Parry, Debbie Bradshaw, Rob Dorrington, Pam Groenewald, Ria Laubscher, Richard Matzopoulos
{"title":"Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition","authors":"Kai Barron, Charles D. H. Parry, Debbie Bradshaw, Rob Dorrington, Pam Groenewald, Ria Laubscher, Richard Matzopoulos","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01228","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper evaluates the impact of a sudden and unexpected nationwide alcohol sales ban in South Africa. We find that this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14%. We argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also document a sharp drop in violent crimes, indicating a tight link between alcohol and aggressive behavior in society. Our results underscore the severe harm that alcohol can cause and point toward a role for policy measures that target the heaviest drinkers in society.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"307 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Year Older, A Year Wiser (and Farther from Frontier): Invention Rents and Human Capital Depreciation 年长一岁，聪明一岁（远离前沿）：发明租金与人力资本折旧
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01262
Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Ari Hyytinen, Otto Toivanen
{"title":"A Year Older, A Year Wiser (and Farther from Frontier): Invention Rents and Human Capital Depreciation","authors":"Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Ari Hyytinen, Otto Toivanen","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01262","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We look at how the arrival of an invention affects wage returns and the probability of moving out of employment for white- and blue-collar co-workers of the inventor. First results suggest that older workers are hurt by the arrival of an invention. This negative effect disappears when we control for education and, in particular, for the time since obtaining the last formal degree, that is, <em>distance to human capital frontier</em>. If anything, this effect is slightly higher for non-STEM than STEM-educated co-workers. This result suggests that retraining programs could be helpful in making the process of creative destruction and economic growth more inclusive.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases 为流行病提供最佳疫苗补贴
The Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01202
Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer, Christopher M. Snyder, Heidi Williams
{"title":"Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases","authors":"Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer, Christopher M. Snyder, Heidi Williams","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01202","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze optimal vaccine subsidies in a model integrating disease epidemiology into a market with rational economic agents. The focus is on an intensive vaccine campaign to quell an epidemic in the short run. Across a range of market structures, positive vaccine externalities and optimal subsidies peak for diseases that spread quickly, but not so quickly that everyone is driven to be vaccinated. We assess the practical relevance of this peak—as well as the existence of increasing social returns to vaccination and optimality of universal vaccination—in calibrations to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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