{"title":"Dynamic Incentives in Retirement Earnings-Replacement Benefits","authors":"Andrés Dean, Sebastian Fleitas, Mariana Zerpa","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01193","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze dynamic incentives in pension systems created by the use of a small set of final years of earnings to compute benefits. Using social security records and household surveys from Uruguay, we show that self-employed workers and some employees of small firms respond to these incentives by increasing reported earnings in the benefit calculation window. We find evidence that suggests that these responses are explained by changes in earnings reporting and not in total earnings or labor supply. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that this behavior increases the cost of pensions by about 0.2% of the GDP.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141149246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christiane Baumeister, Danilo Leiva-León, Eric Sims
{"title":"Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions","authors":"Christiane Baumeister, Danilo Leiva-León, Eric Sims","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01171","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper develops a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles. We illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main contributors to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Program. We also propose an aggregate indicator that gauges the overall weakness of the U.S. economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"3 1","pages":"1-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transmission of Income Variations to Consumption Variations: The Role of the Firm","authors":"Miao Jin, Yu-Jane Liu, Juanjuan Meng, Yu Zhang","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01157","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use matched employer-employee data to study the role of the firm in the transmission of income growth into consumption growth. We find that growth in income relative to the firm average (the within-firm component) translates significantly less into consumption than growth in firm average income (the between-firm component). These findings are explained by the lower persistence of the within-firm component of income, better self-insurance for workers more exposed to variations in income growth from the within-firm component, and peer effects in the workplace. Quantitatively, income persistence provides 43% of the explanatory power, self-insurance provides 35%, and peer effects provide 22%.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"80 1","pages":"1-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Playing Hide and Seek: How Lenders Respond to Borrower Protection","authors":"Youssef Benzarti","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01167","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses the universe of mortgage contracts to estimate the response of high-interest lenders to borrower protection regulations aimed at simplifying and making loan terms more transparent. Using a quasi-experimental design, I find that lenders substantially reduce interest rates—by an average of 10%—in order to avoid being subject to borrower protection, without reducing amounts loaned or the number of loans approved. This finding is consistent with high-interest lenders preferring to issue obfuscatory mortgage contracts with lower interest rates rather than more transparent and regulated mortgages with higher interest rates.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"16 12 1","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joshua E. Blumenstock, Michael Callen, Tarek Ghani, Robert Gonzalez
{"title":"Violence and Financial Decisions: Evidence from Mobile Money in Afghanistan","authors":"Joshua E. Blumenstock, Michael Callen, Tarek Ghani, Robert Gonzalez","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01147","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We provide evidence that violence reduces the adoption and use of mobile money in three separate empirical settings in Afghanistan. First, analyzing nationwide mobile money transaction logs, we find that users exposed to violence reduce use of mobile money. Second, using panel survey data from a field experiment, we show that subjects expecting violence are significantly less likely to respond to random inducements to use mobile money. Finally, analyzing nationwide financial survey data, we find that individuals expecting violence hold more cash. Collectively, this evidence suggests that violence can impede the growth of formal financial systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the United States?","authors":"Manasi Deshpande, Itzik Fadlon, Colin Gray","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01151","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit-claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement, and we find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers’ responses to the FRA.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-55"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Curriculum Reforms and Infant Health","authors":"Bahadir Dursun, Ozkan Eren, My Nguyen","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01181","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the effects of high school curriculum reforms on infant health by exploiting sharp and staggered changes across states in core course requirements for graduation. Our results suggest that curriculum reforms significantly reduced the incidence of low birthweight and prematurity for black mothers. For white mothers, the estimated effects are small and generally insignificant. We also explore the mechanisms for observed effects and provide evidence consistent with our explanations. Finally, we calculate a large social gain induced by favorable infant health outcomes. Several robustness checks and different placebo tests support our findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"30 1","pages":"1-46"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140300360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francisco Costa, Letícia Nunes, Fabio Miessi Sanches
{"title":"How to Attract Physicians to Underserved Areas? Policy Recommendations from a Structural Model","authors":"Francisco Costa, Letícia Nunes, Fabio Miessi Sanches","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01155","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper exploits location choices of all generalist physicians who graduated in Brazil between 2001 and 2013 to study policies aimed at increasing the supply of physicians in underserved areas. We set up and estimate a supply and demand model for physicians. We estimate physicians' locational preferences using a random coefficients discrete choice model. The demand has private establishments competing for physicians with private and public facilities around the country. Policy counterfactuals indicate that quotas in medical schools for students born in underserved areas and the opening of vacancies in medical schools in deprived areas are more cost-effective than financial incentives.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"74 1","pages":"1-45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139415655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Judging under Public Pressure","authors":"Alma Cohen, Zvika Neeman, Florian Auferoth","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01141","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the circumstances under which public pressure affects judging. We show that crowd pressure biases decisions in favor of the crowd for “subjective decisions” with respect to which the judge has more discretion but not for “objective decisions.” The bias is strengthened after a judge's error against the crowd and when errors are costlier to the crowd. We use data about referees' decisions and errors from the Bundesliga. We exploit three regimes where, due to the introduction of Video Assistance Refereeing (VAR) and COVID-19, both crowd pressure and the likelihood of errors vary.</p>","PeriodicalId":516263,"journal":{"name":"The Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139415654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}