{"title":"Political uncertainty and housing markets","authors":"Van Nguyen , Carles Vergara-Alert","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the causal effects of political uncertainty on housing markets. We used US gubernatorial elections from 1982 to 2018 as a source of exogenous variation in political uncertainty and exploited the regional variations in residential housing markets. We used neighboring states without elections and counties at the state borders without elections as control groups. We found that higher political uncertainty causes (a) a decrease in house price growth; (b) a decrease in the number of housing transactions; and (c) an increase in the number of building permits. These effects are stronger during election years when election outcomes present higher uncertainty. We further examined the impact of political uncertainty on mortgage markets and found that mortgage demand and supply decrease in election years.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 101952"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43271620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kelsey K. Johnson , Lee Parton , Christoph Nolte , Matt Williamson , Theresa Nogeire-McRae , Jayash Paudel , Jodi Brandt
{"title":"Moving to the country: Understanding the effects of Covid-19 on property values and farmland development risk","authors":"Kelsey K. Johnson , Lee Parton , Christoph Nolte , Matt Williamson , Theresa Nogeire-McRae , Jayash Paudel , Jodi Brandt","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As human populations grow, one strategy for meeting housing demand is through the development of agricultural land and other open space, which can generate negative externalities. This may be addressed at local, state, or federal levels with land-use planning, including farmland preservation policies. Efficient land-use planning in the presence of competing land uses requires knowledge of development risk, housing preferences, and the full costs of farmland loss. We conduct a national scale hedonic analysis using the ZTRAX program U.S. housing transaction data to investigate how COVID-19 has affected property prices in suburban and rural areas with farmland at high risk of development, for the purpose of understanding the effects of COVID-19 driven shifts in housing location preferences. Our analysis demonstrates that the pandemic caused differential price impacts across the 33 states that we analyzed. Furthermore, our estimates suggest heterogeneous price effects driven by the characteristics of nearby urban areas, with prices appreciating faster on land at risk located near smaller urban areas than those near larger urban areas. Our analysis finds that the spatial pattern of development pressure on agricultural lands, as measured through transaction prices, changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47915162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dennis Guignet , Robin R. Jenkins , Christoph Nolte , James Belke
{"title":"The External Costs of Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Nationwide Property Value Study","authors":"Dennis Guignet , Robin R. Jenkins , Christoph Nolte , James Belke","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Industrial chemical accidents involving fires, explosions, or toxic vapors impose external costs on nearby communities. We examine changes in residential property values using nationwide data on chemical facilities, accidents, and residential transactions within a spatial difference-in-differences framework. We find that accidents with direct offsite impacts lower home values within 5.75 km by 2-3%, an effect that remains for about 10 to 12 years, on average. We estimate an average loss of $5,350 per home, which translates to a $39.5 billion loss to communities around the 661 facilities where an offsite impact accident occurred. We assess the assumptions needed for a formal welfare interpretation and conclude that these results roughly approximate losses experienced by nearby residents.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101954"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44028668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hannah Hennighausen , Yanjun Liao , Christoph Nolte , Adam Pollack
{"title":"Flood insurance reforms, housing market dynamics, and adaptation to climate risks","authors":"Hannah Hennighausen , Yanjun Liao , Christoph Nolte , Adam Pollack","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the impact of two nationwide reforms to the National Flood Insurance<span> Program on both flood insurance and property markets. The 2012 and 2014 reforms aimed to phase out subsidies on flood insurance premiums. Using a difference-in-differences framework comparing treated and similar but untreated properties, we find that the reforms led to a 14.3% relative increase in the price of flood insurance, an 8.2% decrease in insurance demand, a 4.2% decrease in property prices and a 2.3% decrease in property transaction volumes. As flood risk continues to accelerate across the United States, properly pricing insurance premiums can effectively discourage households from living in risky areas, but may involve potential trade-offs such as the unintended outcome of a large drop-off in insurance coverage.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"62 ","pages":"Article 101953"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44764209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pay for elite private schools or pay for higher housing prices? Evidence from an exogenous policy shock","authors":"Jing Chen , Rui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study provides the first direct empirical evidence on whether private school lottery enrollment program affects school district house prices and residential sorting behaviors. Although the new lottery enrollment policy for private schools in China aims to promote equal and affordable education, it also introduces uncertainty. We assessed the policy impact using the panel data of residential housing transactions from the largest real estate agent in Chengdu during 2018–2020 and controlling for grid-level demographic and economic variables from mobile Internet data. We found that the lottery-based private school enrollment uncertainty leads to a substantial rise in the value of the key and elite school district house (SDH) prices. The house price premiums of the key SDH and elite SDH increased by 2.8% and 7.8% in the post-policy period, respectively. We also observed a significant intensification of residential sorting behavior within the elite public school districts afterwards. These results suggest that parents pay higher house prices when access to quality private schools becomes uncertain.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101934"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43049721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Redevelopment values in multi-family properties: Evidence from en bloc sales in Singapore","authors":"Liu Ee Chia , Tien Foo Sing","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>“Teardown” or redevelopment is an effective policy tool to increase supply elasticity in land-scarce cities. In Singapore, redevelopment of older multi-family properties requires the consent of majority owners to sell their units collectively in a process widely known as “<em>en bloc</em>” sales. Using the resale transaction data in Singapore from 1995 to 2018, we find that private multi-family properties with redevelopment potentials sell at significant premiums of at least 36.7% on average. The resale values of properties with redevelopment potentials increase by 5.5% to 8.3% after the consent of the majority owners to sell the redevelopment rights is obtained. The anticipative effects are observed in resale transactions as early as one year before the <em>en bloc</em> sale events. The price premiums increase from 8.4% to 13.64% when resale transactions occur in 7 to 12 months and within 6 months from the <em>en bloc</em> event. The results are robust and orthogonal to supply constraints in the markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101932"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50191272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Housing Affordability and School Quality in the United States","authors":"Richard W. DiSalvo, Jia H. Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In discussions of the barriers faced by the poor to accessing high-quality K-12 education, housing costs figure prominently. A common view is that housing costs more when it provides access to higher quality schools. But is this view accurate? We investigate this question by relating housing affordability with two test-based measures of school quality, test score levels and rates of student learning. Our work contributes the first nationwide estimate of this relationship for rates of student learning, and to date the most comprehensive nationwide examination for test score levels. We find that there are relatively few affordable housing options near high test score levels schools, but for a substantial range this is driven by the phasing from renter into owner-occupied housing, and the associated rise in down payments. By contrast, the association of housing affordability with learning rates is much weaker. We examine heterogeneity in these relationships, and discuss policy implications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101933"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46077713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The sharing economy and housing markets in selected European cities","authors":"Philipp Reichle , Jarko Fidrmuc , Fabian Reck","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2023.101914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A heated debate has emerged drawing a connection between housing affordability and home-sharing platforms such as <em>Airbnb</em>. Despite first regulatory efforts by municipalities, the impact on rents and house prices has been examined insufficiently in scientific literature, especially with regards to Europe. Therefore, this paper addresses this gap by analyzing data on <em>Airbnb</em> listings for 25 European cities between 2010 and 2019. Using fixed effects and dynamic panel regressions, we show that home-sharing has significantly contributed to a rise in rents and house prices in European cities. While these effects are mainly concentrated in city centers, we also document effects in other urban districts. Finally, recent home-sharing regulations are not associated significantly with housing affordability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 101914"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45652794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Intercity impacts of work-from-home with both remote and non-remote workers","authors":"Jan K. Brueckner , S. Sayantani","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper generalizes the simple two-city work-from-home model of Brueckner et al. (2022) by adding a group of non-remote workers, who must live in the city where they work. The results show that the main qualitative conclusions of BKL regarding the intercity effects of WFH are unaffected by this modification, with WFH yielding the same aggregate population and employment changes in the two cities and the same house-price and wage effects as in the simpler model. Even though the aggregate population effects are the same, the population relocation of non-remote workers is in the opposite direction to that of remote workers, which matches the direction in BKL. These conclusions are useful because they establish the robustness of BKL’s highly parsimonious model. The paper also contains material surveying other theoretical research on WFH as well as empirical work in the area, including BKL’s empirical findings in support of their model.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101910"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50171899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Landlords’ rental businesses before and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from a National Cross-Site Survey","authors":"Elijah A. de la Campa , Vincent J. Reina","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101904","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101904","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses a survey of over 2500 rental property owners in ten cities across the United States to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on landlords’ rent collection and business behavior. Our findings show that yearly rent collection was down significantly in 2020 relative to 2019—both within and across rental markets—and that an increasing number of owners have a large share of their portfolio behind on rent. Small owners and owners of color faced the highest exposure to deep tenant arrears in 2020, challenges they were also more likely to face prior to pandemic. Our findings show that owner business practices changed dramatically in 2020, with a higher share of landlords granting tenants rent extensions or forgiving back rent during the pandemic relative to prior. However, many owners also disinvested in their rental properties through deferred maintenance, missed mortgage payments, and property sale listings. Landlords of color pursued disinvestment strategies during the pandemic at an elevated rate compared to white landlords. Owners of properties in neighborhoods with more non-white residents were both more likely to experience decreased rent collection and more likely to pursue evictions and rental late fees holding constant rental payment rates, implying the pandemic has disproportionately affected renters in communities of color. Overall, our findings highlight the strain the pandemic has placed on the housing stock, which has implications for the long-term viability and affordability of many of these units. More concerningly, our results show that households of color—which have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic in other domains—were more likely to face punitive measures from landlords in both 2019 and 2020, suggesting the pandemic has exacerbated existing racial inequality in housing markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"59 ","pages":"Article 101904"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9749398/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10780289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}