{"title":"Price dispersion and time-on-market in the housing market","authors":"Danny Ben-Shahar , Roni Golan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101875","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Imperfect and costly information generates price dispersion in the market. This study employs data on housing assets listed for sale on a leading online classified home service in Israel to assess the effect of quality-adjusted housing price dispersion on time-on-market. Using survival analysis estimation, we find evidence that the hazard rate of sale significantly decreases with quality-adjusted price dispersion: a 1% increase in the standard deviation of the quality-adjusted housing price is associated with a decrease of about 0.63% in the likelihood of a sale. Results are robust to a series of model and sample specifications. As information is associated with decreased price dispersion in the market, our study supports the call for increased availability of information in real estate markets that would decrease time-on-market and transaction costs associated with the time, search, and negotiation required for achieving a transaction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101875"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92010537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impact of a home purchase restrictions (HPR) policy on the distressed property market in Beijing","authors":"Song Shi , Hong Zhang , Jun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101877","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101877","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Distressed property sales, which are carried out under court order by online auction, have increased rapidly in China in recent years. We examine how the implementation of home purchase restrictions (HPR) by the Chinese government in 2017 has affected the market for distressed properties in Beijing. We first use a stylized second-price auction model to derive theoretical predictions for how HPR should impact the number of auction entrants, auction prices/premia, and auction bidders’ average willingness to pay. We then test those predictions using data on court sales from the Taobao online auction platform from 2015 to 2018. By comparing legal auctions of housing before and after April 2017, we obtain empirical results consistent with the model's predictions. Specifically, our analysis documents that auction entrants fell by approximately 70% and auction premia by 16%–27% after the HPR policy was implemented. Furthermore, the average bidder's willingness to pay relative to the seller's valuation fell from 80% to 40%, which suggests that bidders who were affected by HPR had higher valuations, on average, than bidders who weren't.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101877"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42941255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Urban land valuation with bundled good and land residual assumptions","authors":"John M. Clapp , Thies Lindenthal","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper develops a new approach to estimate the value of urban land. We extend AMM theory by adding the assumption of partial irreversibility. Bundled goods assumptions imply that land value with a structure can evolve differently than as-if vacant value, even in the first decades of structure life. We develop a hybrid model that nests bundled goods with land residual methods and we develop a new test of predictive accuracy. Granular house price indices produced by machine learning are used to estimate hybrid economic structure and land values.</p><p>We fit hybrid models to Maricopa County assessor data on houses up to 25 years old during a bust and recovery period (2007–2018). Results support structure value that evolves at some fraction (<1.0) of property value: i.e., partial bundling. The hybrid model achieves substantially lower Coefficients of Dispersion (CODs) than the land residual method, and both methods easily beat standard AVMs that do not separate land and structure values.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101872"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137722000444/pdfft?md5=2f32cb8601961d3b96db318ed075401d&pid=1-s2.0-S1051137722000444-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46885142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Note to special issue: Land values","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S1051-1377(22)00074-2","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S1051-1377(22)00074-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101902"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137722000742/pdfft?md5=1dde8f65c8752a5ff9dbc610a59b7128&pid=1-s2.0-S1051137722000742-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41539130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bowling alone, buying alone: The decline of co-borrowers in the US mortgage market","authors":"Eglė Jakučionytė , Swapnil Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper documents stylized and empirical facts associated with co-borrowers in the US mortgage market since the early 1990s. The share of mortgages with a co-borrower has declined dramatically across different income and demographic groups. We show that this decline, despite being a universal phenomenon across the US, evinces significant regional heterogeneity which contributes to the divergence in local mortgage markets outcomes. Regions with a lower co-borrower share have higher mortgage default rates. Further, in an event of an adverse shock, regions with a low share of mortgages with a co-borrower experience persistently lower </span>house price growth, and lower purchase and refinance mortgage growth.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101876"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137287552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating land values using residential sales data","authors":"Stanley D. Longhofer , Christian L. Redfearn","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Land prices are at the heart of urban economics but are generally not observed directly. Though they are central to household and firm location choices, land-only sales in urban areas are rare and often outliers. Indeed, urban areas are in part defined by a largely contiguous area of high land-use intensity – those places in which developable land is scarce. In this paper, we make use of more-common market data to infer land prices: house sales. Using locally weighted regressions, we estimate the value of a standardized structure across two urban counties: Maricopa, Arizona and Sedgwick, Kansas. Because the value of the standardized structure should be invariant across different locations in a metropolitan area, any remaining variation in the value surface should reflect differences in land values. By pinning down this surface using vacant lot sales at the periphery, we are able to extract land values throughout the metropolitan area, even in locations where vacant land sales are rare.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101869"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43333610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paul Bidanset, Aleksandrs Elkins, Ron Rakow, Jennifer Rearich, Carmela Quintos
{"title":"Practitioner's panel paper on land valuation guidance","authors":"Paul Bidanset, Aleksandrs Elkins, Ron Rakow, Jennifer Rearich, Carmela Quintos","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101880","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101880"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45917652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Adverse selection in the market for mortgage servicing rights","authors":"Tom Mayock , Lan Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Transfer activity in the U.S. market for mortgage servicing rights has increased in recent years. Incumbent servicers are at an informational advantage relative to potential buyers of these servicing rights, introducing the possibility of adverse selection. This paper marks the first investigation of adverse selection in the market for mortgage servicing rights. Using data from mortgage servicers, we find that loans with higher </span><em>ex ante</em> measures of prepayment and default risk were more likely to experience a servicing transfer. Results from an <em>ex post</em> analysis in which we condition on these risk measures reveals that loans that experienced a servicing transfer were more likely to prepay and default, a finding that suggests that the market for servicing rights is characterized by adverse selection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101858"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92127863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing evidence for inattention to the costs of homeownership","authors":"Leila Bengali","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Many goods and services have accompanying costs that are not salient at the moment of purchase. Existing research suggests that consumers are inattentive to such costs when making small purchases. There is less evidence about attention to costs associated with large purchases. This paper examines residential real estate transactions and studies the extent to which sale prices adjust to ownership costs. The results are inconclusive, neither ruling out full price adjustment nor lack of price adjustment. Despite the inconclusive result, the inability to decisively rule out incomplete price adjustment to predictable ownership costs (which is suggestive of inattention) is noteworthy, given the high financial stakes of buying a home.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101861"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44984842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Land valuation using public records and kriging: Implications for land versus property taxation in cities","authors":"William D. Larson, Jessica Shui","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2022.101871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We construct land values for each parcel in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona, from 2000 through 2018 using a novel public dataset containing the universe of land sales and parcel records in the county. We then compare residential land values constructed using two classes of source data, vacant land sales and land under existing structures. Between 2012 and 2018, estimated land values for developed parcels are, on average, 14% higher when estimated using vacant land due to plattage effects and other unobserved factors. Growth rates are similar, facilitating the use of vacant land price indices to trace valuations over time from an accurate base year valuation. Dynamics between prices of Maricopa County land and housing suggest hypothetical land value tax revenues are more pro-cyclical than property tax revenues, with elasticities of 3.3 and 2.3 with respect to national house prices, respectively. By 2018, houses had recovered 96% of pre-crisis (2007) values, but land had only recovered 66%. These findings demonstrate a source of risk of dependence on public revenues from land value taxes versus a base-period revenue-neutral property tax.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 101871"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137722000432/pdfft?md5=8e7c2e0ab31257fcbc1f938769c0ab09&pid=1-s2.0-S1051137722000432-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41876401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}