{"title":"The impact of mortgage rates on the housing market","authors":"Martin Časta","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the relationship between mortgage rates and housing activity in the US, focusing on house prices. Employing impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast variance ratios (FVRs), we address potential endogeneity concerns by instrumenting mortgage rates with changes in long-term yields. Our findings reveal a significant impact of mortgage rate changes on house prices, with the maximal implied long-run semi-elasticity being close to 10. The FVRs provide set-identified variance decomposition for the instrumented shock, suggesting that mortgage rate shocks explain 2%–25% of house price dynamics. The results also highlight substantial uncertainty, likely stemming from potential nonlinearities and regional factors influencing house price formation, which we further investigate. Additionally, we show that changes in mortgage rates significantly affect various dimensions of housing activity, including houses sold, construction, and building permits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102079"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Low-rise multifamily and housing supply: A case study of seattle","authors":"Tobias Peter , Edward Pinto , Joseph Tracy","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We provide an in-depth case study of land use reforms in Seattle to highlight how redevelopment of aging single-family housing to townhomes can lead to a significant increase in market-rate housing that promotes affordability. The key is to allow market forces to use by-right zoning to drive small-scale development, when also supported by clear and simplified regulatory frameworks. We have dubbed this the Housing Abundance Success Sequence, which is supported by this study along with over two dozen others. In Seattle, we document that such policies lead to a sustained 2.5 % per year increase in the housing stock, with a range of about 1–2.5 % in other case studies. Importantly, this approach requires no government subsidies and leads to higher local tax revenues. Our findings underscore the potential of thoughtful land use reforms to create more inclusive, affordable, and resilient housing markets, while also demonstrating that inclusionary zoning mandates do not work and can stop market-rate developers in their tracks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102082"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144517357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jing Xue , Zhenzhen Liu , Jian Tong , Chengxuan Li
{"title":"Equity of educational outcomes and families’ school choices preferences: Evidence from education reform in China","authors":"Jing Xue , Zhenzhen Liu , Jian Tong , Chengxuan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Integrating equity of outcomes into China’s basic education equalization reform marks a significant step toward addressing the shortage of high-quality educational resources and spatial disparities in educational access. This paper develops a school choice model incorporating the quota allocation policy, and analyzes its impact on school choices and school district housing prices. Using a generalized difference-in-difference framework, we assess the impact of equity-of-outcomes policy in Shanghai, China. The empirical findings reveal that school district housing prices in Shanghai decline by 0.0466 % on average following the implementation of the quota allocation policy. Furthermore, families prioritize the competitive advantages of allocated quotas and minimum scores when making school choices. Additionally, the policy impact varies across income groups, with middle- and low-income households exhibiting greater responsiveness due to increased flexibility in school selection. By shifting parental preferences away from exclusive competition for elite junior high schools, the equity-of-outcomes reform fosters a more balanced distribution of student composition, ultimately enhancing educational quality and equity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102080"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144329806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Noah J. Durst , Elise Breshears , Esther Sullivan , Danna Gutierrez Lanza
{"title":"Density zoning, neighborhood type, and exclusion by income and race","authors":"Noah J. Durst , Elise Breshears , Esther Sullivan , Danna Gutierrez Lanza","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, states and municipalities have taken steps to reform land use and zoning regulations. While prior research documents that density zoning contributes to residential segregation on the basis of income and race, the mechanisms remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we examine the relationship between density zoning, neighborhood type, and residential segregation. To do so, we use a national dataset of building footprints and machine learning to develop a neighborhood typology based on building characteristics. We then use land cover data to examine changes in building development in these neighborhoods between 2001 and 2019. Finally, we pair these data with demographics at the municipality level to examine changes in income and race between 2000 and 2020. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that density zoning is strongly associated with building characteristics and the presence of different neighborhood types. Although we find that density zoning is also associated with income and race, the effects are attenuated when accounting for neighborhood types. Our results provide new evidence into the ”chain of exclusion” between density zoning and residential segregation, as we find that density zoning is primarily associated with reductions in the supply of single-family housing along the urban fringe. Lastly, we find that maximum density restrictions and changes in maximum density cannot explain the changes in demographics that we observe during this time period. We do, however, find some evidence of a relationship between changes in building development and changes in demographics. These results demonstrate the potential effects of upzoning policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102065"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"AC replacement: Heat of the moment or cool-headed choice?","authors":"Paul A. Brehm , Alecia Cassidy","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the determinants of households’ central air conditioner (AC) replacements, one of the larger energy using durable goods that households purchase. We do not find evidence that hot weather or high humidity significantly affect AC replacement rates. However, higher electricity prices and bills increase the likelihood of AC replacement. These findings suggest that clear financial motivators like price incentives could be an effective tool in policymakers’ climate change arsenal going forward.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102068"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marc-André Luik , Max Friedrich Steinhardt , Simon Voss
{"title":"Language proficiency and homeownership: Evidence from U.S. immigrants","authors":"Marc-André Luik , Max Friedrich Steinhardt , Simon Voss","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we deliver the first causal evidence on the relationship between immigrant host-country language proficiency and homeownership. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find a substantial positive impact of language skills on the propensity to own a home and the quality of housing among immigrants in the United States. While this effect is mediated by household income, our estimates also speak in favor of a direct language effect. Suggestive evidence further indicates that part of this effect may be driven by discrimination. Our results highlight the importance of host-country-specific human capital and, in particular, language proficiency for socio-economic assimilation in housing markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102067"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Labor supply response to home value shocks: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Junya Hamaaki , Shinichiro Iwata","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the extent to which the labor supply of homeowners aged 40 years or over responds to unanticipated shocks to home values in Japan. Our findings suggest that only older homeowners respond to home value shocks. While older women strive to remain in the labor force, they tend to reduce their hours worked. Specifically, we find that an unanticipated one standard deviation increase in home value leads to a 5.2% reduction in hours worked per week relative to their average. Among older men, a small proportion choose to exit the labor force, while others reduce their hours worked without leaving their job. Specifically, an unanticipated one standard deviation increase in home value leads to a decrease in the likelihood of labor force participation by 4.8% and a reduction in hours worked per week of 9.2%, both relative to their average. We also find that women respond to home value shocks at a younger age than men. Women decrease their hours worked per week from the age of 55, while men start to reduce theirs from the age of 65. The small and late response to a home value shock among older homeowners may reflect the peculiarities of Japan’s housing and labor markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 102069"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Promoting social housing : Insights from redevelopment policies in Paris","authors":"Lauriane Belloy, Fabien Candau","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of income segregation plagues numerous cities, and in particular Paris which is studied here. To mitigate this problem, the local government has implemented redevelopment policies that increase incentives to convert offices and other commercial units into social housing in high-demand areas. We find that these policies have a negligible effect. Only the most restrictive legislation slightly stimulated the conversion of social housing in the city center; all subsequent policies had no effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102061"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Yang Ming , Xinyi Zhang
{"title":"The spatial spillover effect of the multi-school zoning policies","authors":"Tiantian Dai , Shenyi Jiang , Yang Ming , Xinyi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local governments in China have implemented a series of education and real estate policies to promote educational equity and mitigate the escalation of housing prices within school attendance zones. This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of changes in the probability of school enrollment, stemming from the implementation of the Multi-School Zoning Policies in Xicheng district, Beijing, on housing prices in neighboring districts. We first present a theoretical model and derive testable predictions. Subsequently, we utilize transaction-level data on previously owned homes to evaluate spillover effects in addition to direct treatment effects. A flexible event study model is employed to incorporate both the anticipatory effect induced by the early policy announcement and the post-treatment effect. Our findings highlight significant negative direct impacts on Xicheng’s average total home sale price (1.5 % to 2.8 %) and noteworthy positive spillover effects on home sale prices in neighboring districts (1.1 % to 1.6 %). Furthermore, the spillover effect operates as a general equilibrium effect, being more pronounced for housing units in better school attendance zones and that are smaller and closer to Xicheng district. Our findings suggest that in formulating regional policies to stabilize housing prices, policy makers should account for spillover effects to ensure that these policies align with the broader objectives of a larger region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102070"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143898995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Capital structure, the adjusted present value, and mortgage choice","authors":"Dogan Tirtiroglu , Ercan Tirtiroglu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhe.2025.102066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Choosing the right combination of mortgage interest rate and discount points is important for real estate investors to minimize their cost of capital. This paper subscribes to Myers’ (1974) Adjusted Present Value (APV) method to study the effect of capital structure on the mortgage choice. An important implication and advantage of subscribing to the APV method is that an investor’s risk aversion does not affect the investor’s mortgage choice. Our framework relies on the <em>daily observable</em>, and <em>objectively</em> and <em>market-determined interest rates</em> and, by avoiding the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate, offers a simpler and cleaner platform for empirical tests on the mortgage choice questions than those proposed in the extant literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51490,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Housing Economics","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 102066"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}