{"title":"Court-packing and judicial manipulation","authors":"Justin T. Callais , Gor Mkrtchian","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Judicial independence is a fundamental pillar of a liberal democracy. In one of its most basic functions, judicial independence impedes the ability to engage in executive overreach. Judicial manipulation, particularly the infamous practice of court-packing, threatens this pillar. Court-packing and other forms of judicial manipulation can exacerbate executive corruption and worsen government accountability and the rule of law. Using synthetic control analyses, we examine three countries (Hungary, Poland, and Turkey) that recently implemented waves of judicial manipulation that included outright court-packing. Our results provide evidence that in every case, executive corruption worsens and scores on accountability and rule of law decrease relative to the counterfactual. Furthermore, the gap between the <em>de jure</em> constitutional provisions and the actual de facto practice of those provisions (constitutional compliance) widens. In each case, these results are large in magnitude and almost always statistically significant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140823063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the side effects of fiscal policy: Fiscal rules and income inequality","authors":"Jean-Louis Combes, Xavier Debrun, A. Minea, Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, Cezara Vinturis","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102534","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141034825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited","authors":"Annika Backes , Steffen Mueller","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102528","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000302/pdfft?md5=a082bc37088b477de8b6cb296ca3885d&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000302-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140816497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis","authors":"Daniel Joël Elanga Mendogo, Géraldine Bocquého","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although the large majority of Syrians fleeing the civil war remain in neighbouring or nearby countries, others embark on hazardous land or sea crossings in pursuit of the uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status in Europe. Understanding in what ways Syrian migrants who stay in nearby countries differ from those who seek asylum in Europe can help to better target European asylum policies. We address this issue by combining two experimental databases of refugees in Egypt and Luxembourg. First, we measure original risk preferences on the Egypt sample and show that Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is better suited for modelling refugee behaviour under risk than Expected Utility Theory (EUT). Second, we compare the risk preference parameters of the two samples under the CPT framework and find that, on average, refugees in Egypt are more loss averse and overweight low probabilities more than their counterparts who migrated to Luxembourg. These results suggest a possible self-selection process among refugees migrating to Europe based on their risk preferences, which challenges current policy schemes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140906199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Income, growth, and democracy looking for the main causal directions in the nexus","authors":"Martin Paldam","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The development of the political system of countries is noisy, but in the longer run a strong relation to the economy emerges in the cross-country data for income, growth, and the main democracy indices. Two main theories explain these relations: (α) starts from the strong correlation between income and democracy, seeing income as the causal variable. It is the democratic transition, which is the political part of the theory of the grand transition. (β) starts from the much weaker correlation between democracy and economic growth, seeing democracy as the causal variable. This is a part of the primacy-of-institutions theory, where the political system is a key institution. The discussion needs (λ) a link-relation between growth and income. It connects the (α) and (β) theories, so that one may explain the other. The analysis looks at all six possible univariate relations between the three variables using kernel regressions on a large, unified data set. This method gives a clear picture. The strong α-relation can indeed explain the weak β-relation as spurious, but the weak β-relation predicts that the α-relation is very weak. Thus, (α) encompasses (β), but not vice versa.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140762068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment","authors":"Martin Larch, Peter Claeys, Wouter van der Wielen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102509","url":null,"abstract":"Long shunned as slow and ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 26 OECD countries, including 14 EU member states, since 1970 and examines the role played by fiscal policy. We find that higher current expenditure – the favoured active response - does not mitigate the lasting impact of major economic downturns on real GDP. In contrast, more government investment can help but generally receives little attention. As a result, scarring effects are significant confronting governments with sustainability risks, which in turn weigh on the room for manoeuvre in subsequent downturns. In sum, fiscal policy makers face two difficulties in the event of a major economic downturn: (i) adopt the right type of fiscal expansion, and (ii) find the right time to pivot from short-term stabilisation to fiscal consolidation while protecting investment. Both challenges are fraught with political economy issues.","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140127886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic freedom and the greenhouse gas Kuznets curve","authors":"Christian Bjørnskov","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102530","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>If and how economic freedom is associated with environmental damage remains an open question. In this paper, I therefore combine data on greenhouse gas emissions and GDP per capita with the Economic Freedom of the World indices to test if economic freedom affects emissions. I do so in the context of estimating a standard Environmental Kuznets Curve in which economic freedom can both reduce overall levels as well as shift the shape of the curve. The results suggest that economic freedom reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also shifts the top point of the Kuznets Curve to the left.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000326/pdfft?md5=9ab0366bace1e9d0998497406996e255&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000326-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140328759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Contest and resource allocation: An experimental analysis of entitlement and self-selection effects","authors":"Katarína Čellárová , Rostislav Staněk","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Leaders who decide the allocation of resources are often chosen through contests. Due to imperfect monitoring, they often decide to allocate resources to themselves at the expense of others. This paper investigates how being selected in a contest affects such allocation through two channels: entitlement and self-selection effects. In our experiment, two players compete for the right to allocate resources between themself and a third, uninvolved player. We identify the entitlement effect by comparing the choices of participants who participated in the contest with those who were chosen randomly. Self-selection effect is identified by comparing the choices of winners and losers between treatments via a difference-in-difference approach. We find a significant effect of entitlement; people participating in the contest transfer fewer resources to the third player compared to those who did not participate. Further, we find no evidence that the people with specific distributional preferences self-select into the leaders’ role. Our findings suggest that the primary reason leaders allocate resources to themselves is their involvement in the contest rather than being a result of self-selection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140279878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review","authors":"Alena Bachleitner , Doris Prammer","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In view of the increased importance of debt developments in the EU governance framework, this paper investigates the accuracy and the main economic causes of forecast errors in (government) debt projections. We find a positive average debt forecast error for European Union member states, which increases with the projection horizon. Underestimation of debt growth is particularly relevant for countries with high government debt. The main drivers of the debt forecast errors seem to be partly outside direct government control: Wrongly projected overall GDP developments and stock flow adjustments - a factor which has not been considered in the literature so far. Moreover, the high uncertainty in debt forecasts is also inherent in the European Commission’s benchmark forecasts: only their now-cast remains unbiased.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140332765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patrick Hirsch , Lars P. Feld , Ekkehard A. Köhler , Tobias Thomas
{"title":"“Whatever It Takes!” How tonality of TV-news affected government bond yield spreads during the European debt crisis","authors":"Patrick Hirsch , Lars P. Feld , Ekkehard A. Köhler , Tobias Thomas","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Were government bond risk premia affected by the media in addition to the effects of major events? Revisiting the European debt crisis, we analyze the role of television news in the rise and re-convergence of GIIPS bond spreads vis-à-vis Germany from 2007 to 2016. We use a dataset of more than one million human-coded news items from leading newscasts worldwide to identify over 25,000 news on the Eurozone and country-specific economic topics. Our findings emphasize the relevance of the tonality of news, such that an increasing share of positive (negative) news correlates with a decrease (increase) in spreads. Content-based endogenous clustering of news highlights the importance of news about institutions providing stability and “international financial support” to distressed countries in reducing bond spreads. Moreover, weekend news enables us to establish a causal link between country-specific news coverage and changes in spreads on the subsequent trading day.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000132/pdfft?md5=591aca625c557fb398fd35762c78a402&pid=1-s2.0-S0176268024000132-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140095864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}