Public Opinion Quarterly最新文献_第2页

Where Are the Sore Losers? Competitive Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia's 2021 Election. 失败者在哪里？赞比亚 2021 年大选中的竞争性独裁、现任者的失败和选举信任。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-16 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae030

Nicholas Kerr, Matthias Krönke, Michael Wahman

{"title":"Where Are the Sore Losers? Competitive Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia's 2021 Election.","authors":"Nicholas Kerr, Matthias Krönke, Michael Wahman","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae030","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae030","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>How do electoral turnovers shape citizen perceptions of election quality in competitive authoritarian regimes? We argue that electoral outcomes are crucial for determining perceptions of electoral quality. While detailed evaluation of electoral trust is complex in competitive autocracies with institutional uncertainty and polarized electoral environments, turnovers send strong and unequivocal signals about election quality. Previous literature has noted a strong partisan divide in electoral trust in competitive authoritarian regimes, but turnovers can boost trust among both incumbent and opposition supporters. We test this argument in the case of Zambia's 2021 election, a case where a ruling party lost despite electoral manipulation and strong control over the Election Management Body (EMB). Empirically, we leverage the first-ever panel survey carried out during Zambian elections. Comparing trust in elections before and after the election, we find that perceived election quality increased after the 2021 electoral turnover among both losers and winners. We find that trust in elections increased the most among winning opposition supporters. Moreover, despite the outgoing president's attempt to portray the election as fraudulent, losing ruling-party supporters also increased their trust in elections after the turnover. The study has important implications for the literature on democratic consolidation and institutional trust.</p>","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"608-631"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300037/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trust in the Count: Improving Voter Confidence with Post-election Audits 相信选举：通过选举后审计提高选民信心

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae029

Jacob Jaffe, Joseph R Loffredo, Samuel Baltz, Alejandro Flores, Charles Stewart

引用次数: 0

The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance 民主政体中选举操纵与制度信任的动态：选举时机、公然舞弊与治理的合法性

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae022

Masaaki Higashijima, Hisashi Kadoya, Yuki Yanai

{"title":"The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance","authors":"Masaaki Higashijima, Hisashi Kadoya, Yuki Yanai","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the dynamic relationship between electoral manipulation and popular trust in political institutions. Governments often manipulate election results by resorting to electoral fraud. They also tilt the electoral field by opportunistically deciding when to hold elections, in other words, election timing maneuvering. How do these two different types of electoral manipulation affect citizens’ trust in the government, legislature, and election management bodies (EMBs)? We suggest that although the short-term effects of election timing manipulation are unclear due to its ambiguous nature as an electioneering strategy, substantial electoral margins created by timing maneuvering facilitate smooth decision-making, leading to boosting trust in the government and legislature over the long run. In contrast, as electoral fraud is an unambiguous form of manipulation, it may undermine trust in the government and parliament, although such effects may not last. By combining an original dataset of election timing with existing survey data comprising 335,000 citizens from fifty-eight democratic countries, we find evidence in support of our theoretical expectations.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Your Typical Criminal: Why White Americans Hate Voter Fraud 你的典型罪犯为什么美国白人痛恨选民欺诈？

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae023

Adriano Udani, Anita Manion, David Kimball

{"title":"Your Typical Criminal: Why White Americans Hate Voter Fraud","authors":"Adriano Udani, Anita Manion, David Kimball","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae023","url":null,"abstract":"Public concerns about voter fraud are widespread and are frequently cited to justify new voting restrictions and harsh punishment for violators. But to what extent do beliefs about a perpetrator’s identity shape public support for efforts to prevent and punish voter fraud? Antipathy toward racial and ethnic groups is a strong predictor of public beliefs about voter fraud. Yet, prior studies have only been able to approximate beliefs about deviant behavior, and not specifically casting an illegal ballot. Drawing from sociology and criminology, we use a “typification” strategy that more directly measures which people are perceived as typical perpetrators of casting illegal ballots. We utilize nationally representative surveys of US voters in the 2017–2020 modules of the Cooperative Election Study to apply and empirically test the typification theory. Among white respondents, we find that the typification of racially minoritized groups such as Blacks, Latinos, Arabs, and immigrants as illegal voters is widespread and is strongly associated with beliefs about voter fraud, support for restrictive election policies, and harsh punishment of illegal voting. The pictures of likely criminals that white voters carry in their heads shape their preferences for crime policies, and this extends to the domain of voter fraud.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141510157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders 专制蔓延：当选举独裁者削弱跨国选举信任时

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae018

Ka Ming Chan

{"title":"Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders","authors":"Ka Ming Chan","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae018","url":null,"abstract":"The rich literature on election trust predominantly uses domestic determinants as explanatory factors. But given the international nature of the autocratization wave, can an autocratization event across borders erode election trust? This article argues that an authoritarian’s electoral success in a neighboring country can shatter democratic norms and demonstrate the viability of authoritarians. This autocratization event abroad can thus reduce citizens’ principled support for democracy and its political system. Consequently, citizens across borders are less likely to see democratic elections as the “only game in town” and they have less trust in elections. To test this idea, I study the spillover effects of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, in which an authoritarian candidate won decisively. Using the AmericasBarometer in Colombia that was launched throughout this election, I find that the election trust of Colombian citizens erodes after Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral success. To probe into the mechanism, I uncover that his electoral victory leads Colombian citizens to be less supportive of the domestic political system and reduces their principled support for democracy. The causal mediation analysis demonstrates that these two variables mediate the effect of the authoritarian’s electoral success on election trust. These findings on autocratization spillover effects illustrate the importance of external autocratization events in the study of election trust.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"2017 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141510158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Misleading Polls in the Media: Does Survey Clickbait Have Social Consequences? 媒体中的误导性民意调查：调查点击诱饵会产生社会后果吗？

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae009

Matthew H Graham, D Sunshine Hillygus, Andrew Trexler

引用次数: 0

Validating the “Genuine Pipeline” to Limit Social Desirability Bias in Survey Estimates of Voter Turnout 验证 "真实管道 "以限制选民投票率调查估计中的社会期望偏差

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae007

Matthew DeBell, D Sunshine Hillygus, Daron R Shaw, Nicholas A Valentino

引用次数: 0

Fear and Loathing: How Demographic Change Affects Support for Christian Nationalism 恐惧与厌恶：人口变化如何影响对基督教民族主义的支持

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae005

Brooklyn Walker, Donald P Haider-Markel

{"title":"Fear and Loathing: How Demographic Change Affects Support for Christian Nationalism","authors":"Brooklyn Walker, Donald P Haider-Markel","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae005","url":null,"abstract":"Christian nationalism, the fusion of religious and national identities, has emerged as an important factor shaping public opinion on a range of issues. However, debates in the existing literature on the motivations behind support for Christian nationalism remain unresolved: Is Christian nationalism a response to secularization and/or a cover for discomfort with racial diversity and equality? Is Christian nationalism rooted in fear of social change, disgust about social change, or something else? We use an experiment embedded in a national survey of adults to isolate the effects of knowledge of both religious and racial demographic change among White Christians. Our analysis suggests that exposure to religious demographic change shifts support for Christian nationalism and perceptions of discrimination against Whites and Christians, but exposure to racial demographic change has limited impact. This effect is mediated by emotion—religious demographic change increases fear and disgust, which then influence support for Christian nationalism and perceptions of discrimination against Whites and Christians. Although our treatment suggesting exposure to racial demographic change had null effects, we note that racial attitudes do independently influence support for Christian nationalism and perceptions of discrimination against Whites and Christians.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring Attentiveness in Self-Administered Surveys 测量自填式调查的专注度

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae004

Adam J Berinsky, Alejandro Frydman, Michele F Margolis, Michael W Sances, Diana Camilla Valerio

引用次数: 0

Social Mobility through Immigrant Resentment: Explaining Latinx Support for Restrictive Immigration Policies and Anti-immigrant Candidates 通过移民怨恨实现社会流动：解释拉美裔支持限制性移民政策和反移民候选人的原因

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad066

Flavio Rogerio Hickel, Kassra A R Oskooii, Loren Collingwood

{"title":"Social Mobility through Immigrant Resentment: Explaining Latinx Support for Restrictive Immigration Policies and Anti-immigrant Candidates","authors":"Flavio Rogerio Hickel, Kassra A R Oskooii, Loren Collingwood","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfad066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfad066","url":null,"abstract":"Various polls suggest that Donald Trump has enjoyed the support of a sizable minority of the Latinx electorate despite his racially offensive rhetoric and support for some of the most restrictive immigration policies in recent memory. Building on Social Identity Theory and Self-Categorization Theory, we contend that some Latinxs harbor negative stereotypes about immigrants, blame them for the status devaluation of the Latinx community, and cognitively distinguish themselves from Latinx immigrants. Rather than viewing anti-immigrant policies, rhetoric, and politicians as a direct status threat, those exhibiting this “Latinx Immigrant Resentment (LIR)” may regard them as a means to enhance the status and interests of “prototypical” Latinxs by signaling their distinction from “atypical” Latinxs. To evaluate this theory, we use the 2020 American National Election Study (ANES) and 2016 Collaborative MultiRacial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) as a proof-of-concept to first confirm that negative immigrant stereotypes and cognitive intragroup distinctions are associated with increased support for Donald Trump and restrictive immigration policies. We then introduce a more refined measure of LIR by fielding online surveys of US Latinxs administered through Lucid in 2020–2021 (N = 1,164) and 2021/22 (N = 1,017). We demonstrate the validity of this measure and its predictive power for attitudes toward Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and restrictive immigration policies after accounting for a range of rival explanations.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"309 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140199965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0