Public Opinion Quarterly最新文献

The Preference-Expectation Gap in Support for Female Candidates: Evidence from Japan. 女性候选人支持的偏好-期望差距：来自日本的证据。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-05-23 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfaf002

Gento Kato, Fan Lu, Masahisa Endo

引用次数: 0

Race in a Pandemic: Asian American Perceptions of Discrimination and Political Preferences in the 2020 Election. 大流行中的种族：亚裔美国人对2020年大选中的歧视和政治偏好的看法。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-05-21 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfaf004

Vivien Leung, Natalie Masuoka

{"title":"Race in a Pandemic: Asian American Perceptions of Discrimination and Political Preferences in the 2020 Election.","authors":"Vivien Leung, Natalie Masuoka","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfaf004","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfaf004","url":null,"abstract":"Are individual perceptions about racial discrimination relatively stable or are they influenced by external cues? Does belief stability on racial discrimination items offer some explanation for the inconsistent findings on the relationship between perceptions about discrimination and political behavior for racial minorities identified in the past literature? This study highlights the case of Asian Americans and the rise of anti-Asian hate during the COVID pandemic as an opportunity to understand how Asian Americans report discrimination against their group in response to surrounding events. Using an original three-wave study of Asian American respondents collected over 2020, we find that perceptions of discrimination were relatively stable over 2020. At the same time, we find that a respondent's preexisting attitudes about racial discrimination held prior to the pandemic informed their assessment of discrimination during the pandemic. We also find that a respondent's preexisting discrimination beliefs moderate the relationship between their assessment about discrimination during the pandemic and 2020 presidential candidate choice. This study offers new interventions into existing assumptions about the link between discrimination and political behavior.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"89 1","pages":"49-73"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12166976/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144303563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Different Standards: Observing Variation in Citizens' Respect-Based Norms for Mediated Political Communication. 不同的标准：观察公民基于尊重的政治沟通规范的差异。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-05-20 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfaf001

Emma Turkenburg, Ine Goovaerts, Sofie Marien

{"title":"Different Standards: Observing Variation in Citizens' Respect-Based Norms for Mediated Political Communication.","authors":"Emma Turkenburg, Ine Goovaerts, Sofie Marien","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfaf001","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfaf001","url":null,"abstract":"Incivility, oversimplification, lying, inaccessible language: there is widespread concern and controversy about the disrespectful ways politicians communicate. The reasoning underlying these worries is that such communication violates widely shared communicative norms, and that exposure to it may lead to adverse consequences in the wider public. However, widespread support for respect-based norms among citizens is generally presupposed, and little is known about the extent to which norm support matters in how people react when witnessing disrespectful politicians. Using Belgian survey data (N = 2,030), we investigate whether citizens differ in the degree to which they support different respect-based norms for mediated elite communication, and whether differing levels of norm support moderate the relationship between perceived norm violations and several political outcomes (affect toward politicians; political trust; talking about politics; political information seeking). The results reveal substantial variation in norm support across the population, with differences based on sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., education level) and political attitudes (cynical, populist, polarized attitudes). This variation, moreover, matters. While depending on the outcome and norms we study, several findings show that citizens supporting respect-based norms react more negatively when perceiving norm violations more frequently, as compared to citizens caring less about these norms. Yet, whether and in what way this moderating effect occurs can differ for different types of disrespect. As such, besides showing that respectful communication is not equally important to everyone and that not everyone reacts to norm breaking in the same way, this study also underlines that not all shades of disrespect should be tarred with the same brush.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"89 1","pages":"155-185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12166978/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144303562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

White or Woke Christian Nationalists? How Race Moderates the Link Between Christian Nationalism and Progressive Identities. 白人还是觉醒的基督教民族主义者？种族如何缓和基督教民族主义与进步身份之间的联系。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-05-13 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfaf009

Samuel L Perry, Allyson F Shortle, Eric L McDaniel, Joshua B Grubbs

{"title":"White or Woke Christian Nationalists? How Race Moderates the Link Between Christian Nationalism and Progressive Identities.","authors":"Samuel L Perry, Allyson F Shortle, Eric L McDaniel, Joshua B Grubbs","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfaf009","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfaf009","url":null,"abstract":"Scholarship on \"Christian nationalism\" often frames it as antithetical to progressive politics. Yet recent studies find that historically disadvantaged racial minorities often espouse more progressive political views as Christian nationalism increases. Building on an understanding that American religion and politics are fundamentally racialized and drawing on nationally representative data from a nonprobability sample with a Christian nationalism scale incorporating ideology and self-identification, we examine how racial identity moderates the link between Christian nationalism and how much Americans identify with the terms \"woke\" and \"progressive.\" Results reveal racial divergence. As Christian nationalism increases, White Americans are either no different or less likely to affirm progressive identities, while Black Americans become more likely to identify as \"woke,\" and both Black and Hispanic Americans become more likely to identify as \"progressive.\" Patterns are also consistent across partisan identity. Results further affirm how race moderates Christian nationalist views and demonstrate how endorsing progressive identities is differentially shaped by race and religion.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"89 1","pages":"98-124"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12166974/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144303566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations. 预测对预期准确性和精度的影响。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-05-09 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfaf003

Matthew Barnfield, Joseph Phillips, Florian Stoeckel, Benjamin Lyons, Paula Szewach, Jack Thompson, Vittorio Mérola, Sabrina Stöckli, Jason Reifler

引用次数: 0

Affective Polarization towards Parties and Leaders, and Electoral Participation in 13 Parliamentary Democracies, 1980-2019. 1980-2019年13个议会制民主国家对政党和领导人的情感两极分化以及选举参与。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2025-02-13 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae053

Frederico Ferreira da Silva, Diego Garzia

{"title":"Affective Polarization towards Parties and Leaders, and Electoral Participation in 13 Parliamentary Democracies, 1980-2019.","authors":"Frederico Ferreira da Silva, Diego Garzia","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae053","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae053","url":null,"abstract":"Comparative research on affective polarization provides evidence that this phenomenon is present also in parliamentary democracies. Although it has been typically understood as the difference in levels of affect toward in- and out-parties, more recent research has established the relevance of polarized feelings toward party leaders as objects of affective polarization also in parliamentary systems. While several studies have cross-sectionally examined the effect of affective polarization on turnout, recent research has taken an innovative approach by systematically comparing the impact of polarized feelings toward parties and candidates in the probability of turning out in US presidential elections, showing the primacy of the latter in predicting patterns of electoral participation. We expand the contribution of those studies by providing the first longitudinal account of the relationship between affective polarization and turnout in multi-party systems, as well as the first systematic comparison of the effects of party and leader affective polarization on turnout beyond the United States. Using post-electoral survey data covering 87 elections from 13 Western parliamentary democracies collected between 1980 and 2019, our results confirm that polarized feelings toward both parties and leaders are positively associated with turnout in parliamentary democracies. More importantly, our findings highlight the growing relevance of leader affective polarization in accounting for patterns of electoral participation. These results are robust to the use of self-reported and validated measures of turnout in selected countries, as well as different model specifications. Our conclusions contribute both theoretically and methodologically to the literature on affective polarization.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 4","pages":"1234-1248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11957244/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143765779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

It's Not Just Trump: Americans of Both Parties Support Liberal Democratic Norm Violations More Under Their Own President. 不只是特朗普：两党美国人在自己的总统领导下更支持违反自由民主党规范的行为。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-10-23 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae042

Levente Littvay, Jennifer L McCoy, Gabor Simonovits

{"title":"It's Not Just Trump: Americans of Both Parties Support Liberal Democratic Norm Violations More Under Their Own President.","authors":"Levente Littvay, Jennifer L McCoy, Gabor Simonovits","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae042","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae042","url":null,"abstract":"There is a growing worry about the health of American democracy, and political scientists and pundits alike are looking for possible explanations. Surveys conducted during the Trump presidency showed considerable citizen support for liberal democratic norm erosions, especially among Republicans. However, recent experimental research also shows that voters of both parties are more tolerant of norm erosion committed by politicians of the party they prefer. In this note, we aim to reconcile these contradictory findings by analyzing surveys spanning from 2006 to 2021 on the public's tolerance of executive concentration of power. We also collect original data under both the Trump and Biden administrations gauging support for a broad array of liberal democratic norm erosions. Support for such erosions, in fact, has been relatively similar across Democrats and Republicans once we account for the party of the president. Support for executive aggrandizement has been prevalent among supporters of the president's party at least since the second term of the Bush administration. Increased checks and balances on the executive, through divided government, amplifies this effect further. Taken together, these findings suggest that universal support for the liberal democratic status quo has been weaker among those who support the president's party, well before and since the Trump presidency.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 3","pages":"1044-1058"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11664217/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142886420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Global Crisis of Trust in Elections 全球选举信任危机

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae016

Nicholas Kerr, Bridgett A King, Michael Wahman

引用次数: 0

The Electoral Misinformation Nexus: How News Consumption, Platform Use, and Trust in News Influence Belief in Electoral Misinformation. 选举误导信息的联系：新闻消费、平台使用和对新闻的信任如何影响对选举误导信息的相信。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-22 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae019

Camila Mont'Alverne, Amy Ross Arguedas, Sayan Banerjee, Benjamin Toff, Richard Fletcher, Rasmus Kleis Nielsen

{"title":"The Electoral Misinformation Nexus: How News Consumption, Platform Use, and Trust in News Influence Belief in Electoral Misinformation.","authors":"Camila Mont'Alverne, Amy Ross Arguedas, Sayan Banerjee, Benjamin Toff, Richard Fletcher, Rasmus Kleis Nielsen","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae019","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae019","url":null,"abstract":"Electoral misinformation, where citizens believe false or misleading claims about the electoral process and electoral institutions-sometimes actively and strategically spread by political actors-is a challenge to public confidence in elections specifically and democracy more broadly. In this article, we analyze a combination of 42 million clicks in links and apps from behavioral tracking data of 2,200 internet users and a four-wave panel survey to investigate how different kinds of online news and media use relate to beliefs in electoral misinformation during a contentious political period-the 2022 Brazilian presidential elections. We find that, controlling for other factors, using news from legacy news media is associated with belief in fewer claims of electoral misinformation over time. We find null or inconsistent effects for using digital-born news media and various digital platforms, including Facebook and WhatsApp. Furthermore, we find that trust in news plays a significant role as a moderator. Belief in electoral misinformation, in turn, undermines trust in news. Overall, our findings document the important role of the news media as an institution in curbing electoral misinformation, even as they also underline the precarity of trust in news during contentious political periods.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"681-707"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300038/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Trump Effect? Right-Wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada. 特朗普效应？加拿大右翼民粹主义和对邮寄投票的不信任。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-16 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae020

Cary Wu, Andrew Dawson

{"title":"The Trump Effect? Right-Wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada.","authors":"Cary Wu, Andrew Dawson","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae020","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae020","url":null,"abstract":"Do Donald Trump's attacks on voting by mail influence how some Canadians view mail-in ballots? The Trump effect on views and behaviors surrounding voting by mail has been well documented in the United States. North of the border, more Canadians than ever voted by mail in the last general election. In this study, we consider how right-wing populism is associated with trust in voting by mail among Canadians. Specifically, we seek to test two main hypotheses. First, we consider whether Canadians holding populist views-and, in particular, those holding right-wing populist views (would-be Trump supporters)-are less trusting of voting by mail. Second, we consider whether political media exposure amplifies this association. We analyze data from both the 2021 Canadian Election Study and Democracy Checkup Survey. We find that those who hold populist views clearly have less trust in voting by mail. This is especially true among right-leaning individuals. Furthermore, as in the United States, this effect is moderated by one's level of political media exposure, with higher levels of political media exposure amplifying the effect of populist views on trust in voting by mail. Our findings, therefore, suggest that the politicization of mail-in voting by President Trump has important implications for the legitimacy of the electoral system not only in the United States, but also in Canada and potentially in other parts of the world.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"781-813"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300042/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0