Public Opinion Quarterly最新文献

The Global Crisis of Trust in Elections 全球选举信任危机

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae016

Nicholas Kerr, Bridgett A King, Michael Wahman

引用次数: 0

The Electoral Misinformation Nexus: How News Consumption, Platform Use, and Trust in News Influence Belief in Electoral Misinformation. 选举误导信息的联系：新闻消费、平台使用和对新闻的信任如何影响对选举误导信息的相信。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-22 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae019

Camila Mont'Alverne, Amy Ross Arguedas, Sayan Banerjee, Benjamin Toff, Richard Fletcher, Rasmus Kleis Nielsen

{"title":"The Electoral Misinformation Nexus: How News Consumption, Platform Use, and Trust in News Influence Belief in Electoral Misinformation.","authors":"Camila Mont'Alverne, Amy Ross Arguedas, Sayan Banerjee, Benjamin Toff, Richard Fletcher, Rasmus Kleis Nielsen","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae019","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae019","url":null,"abstract":"Electoral misinformation, where citizens believe false or misleading claims about the electoral process and electoral institutions-sometimes actively and strategically spread by political actors-is a challenge to public confidence in elections specifically and democracy more broadly. In this article, we analyze a combination of 42 million clicks in links and apps from behavioral tracking data of 2,200 internet users and a four-wave panel survey to investigate how different kinds of online news and media use relate to beliefs in electoral misinformation during a contentious political period-the 2022 Brazilian presidential elections. We find that, controlling for other factors, using news from legacy news media is associated with belief in fewer claims of electoral misinformation over time. We find null or inconsistent effects for using digital-born news media and various digital platforms, including Facebook and WhatsApp. Furthermore, we find that trust in news plays a significant role as a moderator. Belief in electoral misinformation, in turn, undermines trust in news. Overall, our findings document the important role of the news media as an institution in curbing electoral misinformation, even as they also underline the precarity of trust in news during contentious political periods.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"681-707"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300038/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Trump Effect? Right-Wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada. 特朗普效应？加拿大右翼民粹主义和对邮寄投票的不信任。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-16 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae020

Cary Wu, Andrew Dawson

{"title":"The Trump Effect? Right-Wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada.","authors":"Cary Wu, Andrew Dawson","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae020","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae020","url":null,"abstract":"Do Donald Trump's attacks on voting by mail influence how some Canadians view mail-in ballots? The Trump effect on views and behaviors surrounding voting by mail has been well documented in the United States. North of the border, more Canadians than ever voted by mail in the last general election. In this study, we consider how right-wing populism is associated with trust in voting by mail among Canadians. Specifically, we seek to test two main hypotheses. First, we consider whether Canadians holding populist views-and, in particular, those holding right-wing populist views (would-be Trump supporters)-are less trusting of voting by mail. Second, we consider whether political media exposure amplifies this association. We analyze data from both the 2021 Canadian Election Study and Democracy Checkup Survey. We find that those who hold populist views clearly have less trust in voting by mail. This is especially true among right-leaning individuals. Furthermore, as in the United States, this effect is moderated by one's level of political media exposure, with higher levels of political media exposure amplifying the effect of populist views on trust in voting by mail. Our findings, therefore, suggest that the politicization of mail-in voting by President Trump has important implications for the legitimacy of the electoral system not only in the United States, but also in Canada and potentially in other parts of the world.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"781-813"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300042/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Where Are the Sore Losers? Competitive Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia's 2021 Election. 失败者在哪里？赞比亚 2021 年大选中的竞争性独裁、现任者的失败和选举信任。

IF 2.9 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-16 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae030

Nicholas Kerr, Matthias Krönke, Michael Wahman

{"title":"Where Are the Sore Losers? Competitive Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia's 2021 Election.","authors":"Nicholas Kerr, Matthias Krönke, Michael Wahman","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae030","DOIUrl":"10.1093/poq/nfae030","url":null,"abstract":"How do electoral turnovers shape citizen perceptions of election quality in competitive authoritarian regimes? We argue that electoral outcomes are crucial for determining perceptions of electoral quality. While detailed evaluation of electoral trust is complex in competitive autocracies with institutional uncertainty and polarized electoral environments, turnovers send strong and unequivocal signals about election quality. Previous literature has noted a strong partisan divide in electoral trust in competitive authoritarian regimes, but turnovers can boost trust among both incumbent and opposition supporters. We test this argument in the case of Zambia's 2021 election, a case where a ruling party lost despite electoral manipulation and strong control over the Election Management Body (EMB). Empirically, we leverage the first-ever panel survey carried out during Zambian elections. Comparing trust in elections before and after the election, we find that perceived election quality increased after the 2021 electoral turnover among both losers and winners. We find that trust in elections increased the most among winning opposition supporters. Moreover, despite the outgoing president's attempt to portray the election as fraudulent, losing ruling-party supporters also increased their trust in elections after the turnover. The study has important implications for the literature on democratic consolidation and institutional trust.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"88 SI","pages":"608-631"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11300037/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Trust in the Count: Improving Voter Confidence with Post-election Audits 相信选举：通过选举后审计提高选民信心

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae029

Jacob Jaffe, Joseph R Loffredo, Samuel Baltz, Alejandro Flores, Charles Stewart

引用次数: 0

The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance 民主政体中选举操纵与制度信任的动态：选举时机、公然舞弊与治理的合法性

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae022

Masaaki Higashijima, Hisashi Kadoya, Yuki Yanai

{"title":"The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance","authors":"Masaaki Higashijima, Hisashi Kadoya, Yuki Yanai","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the dynamic relationship between electoral manipulation and popular trust in political institutions. Governments often manipulate election results by resorting to electoral fraud. They also tilt the electoral field by opportunistically deciding when to hold elections, in other words, election timing maneuvering. How do these two different types of electoral manipulation affect citizens’ trust in the government, legislature, and election management bodies (EMBs)? We suggest that although the short-term effects of election timing manipulation are unclear due to its ambiguous nature as an electioneering strategy, substantial electoral margins created by timing maneuvering facilitate smooth decision-making, leading to boosting trust in the government and legislature over the long run. In contrast, as electoral fraud is an unambiguous form of manipulation, it may undermine trust in the government and parliament, although such effects may not last. By combining an original dataset of election timing with existing survey data comprising 335,000 citizens from fifty-eight democratic countries, we find evidence in support of our theoretical expectations.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Your Typical Criminal: Why White Americans Hate Voter Fraud 你的典型罪犯为什么美国白人痛恨选民欺诈？

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae023

Adriano Udani, Anita Manion, David Kimball

{"title":"Your Typical Criminal: Why White Americans Hate Voter Fraud","authors":"Adriano Udani, Anita Manion, David Kimball","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae023","url":null,"abstract":"Public concerns about voter fraud are widespread and are frequently cited to justify new voting restrictions and harsh punishment for violators. But to what extent do beliefs about a perpetrator’s identity shape public support for efforts to prevent and punish voter fraud? Antipathy toward racial and ethnic groups is a strong predictor of public beliefs about voter fraud. Yet, prior studies have only been able to approximate beliefs about deviant behavior, and not specifically casting an illegal ballot. Drawing from sociology and criminology, we use a “typification” strategy that more directly measures which people are perceived as typical perpetrators of casting illegal ballots. We utilize nationally representative surveys of US voters in the 2017–2020 modules of the Cooperative Election Study to apply and empirically test the typification theory. Among white respondents, we find that the typification of racially minoritized groups such as Blacks, Latinos, Arabs, and immigrants as illegal voters is widespread and is strongly associated with beliefs about voter fraud, support for restrictive election policies, and harsh punishment of illegal voting. The pictures of likely criminals that white voters carry in their heads shape their preferences for crime policies, and this extends to the domain of voter fraud.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141510157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders 专制蔓延：当选举独裁者削弱跨国选举信任时

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae018

Ka Ming Chan

{"title":"Autocratization Spillover: When Electing an Authoritarian Erodes Election Trust across Borders","authors":"Ka Ming Chan","doi":"10.1093/poq/nfae018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae018","url":null,"abstract":"The rich literature on election trust predominantly uses domestic determinants as explanatory factors. But given the international nature of the autocratization wave, can an autocratization event across borders erode election trust? This article argues that an authoritarian’s electoral success in a neighboring country can shatter democratic norms and demonstrate the viability of authoritarians. This autocratization event abroad can thus reduce citizens’ principled support for democracy and its political system. Consequently, citizens across borders are less likely to see democratic elections as the “only game in town” and they have less trust in elections. To test this idea, I study the spillover effects of the 2018 Brazilian presidential election, in which an authoritarian candidate won decisively. Using the AmericasBarometer in Colombia that was launched throughout this election, I find that the election trust of Colombian citizens erodes after Jair Bolsonaro’s electoral success. To probe into the mechanism, I uncover that his electoral victory leads Colombian citizens to be less supportive of the domestic political system and reduces their principled support for democracy. The causal mediation analysis demonstrates that these two variables mediate the effect of the authoritarian’s electoral success on election trust. These findings on autocratization spillover effects illustrate the importance of external autocratization events in the study of election trust.","PeriodicalId":51359,"journal":{"name":"Public Opinion Quarterly","volume":"2017 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141510158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Misleading Polls in the Media: Does Survey Clickbait Have Social Consequences? 媒体中的误导性民意调查：调查点击诱饵会产生社会后果吗？

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae009

Matthew H Graham, D Sunshine Hillygus, Andrew Trexler

引用次数: 0

Validating the “Genuine Pipeline” to Limit Social Desirability Bias in Survey Estimates of Voter Turnout 验证 "真实管道 "以限制选民投票率调查估计中的社会期望偏差

IF 3.4 1区社会学

Public Opinion Quarterly Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfae007

Matthew DeBell, D Sunshine Hillygus, Daron R Shaw, Nicholas A Valentino

引用次数: 0