Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献

{"title":"A practical approach for grading cotton Verticillium wilt severity for remote sensing monitoring","authors":"Yaohui Gui ,&nbsp;Changping Huang ,&nbsp;Junru Zhou ,&nbsp;Mi Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Qiu ,&nbsp;Ze Zhang ,&nbsp;Yaokai Liu ,&nbsp;Yu Gao ,&nbsp;Weiling Shen ,&nbsp;Wenjiang Huang ,&nbsp;Bhaskar Shrestha ,&nbsp;Lifu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disease severity grading is a key prerequisite and major aspect of the integrated management of cotton <em>Verticillium</em> wilt (VW). However, the application of current VW severity grading methods requires an investigation into the disease status of all cotton leaves. It is time-consuming, unrelated to yield, and difficult to reflect the actual severity, especially when it comes to large-scale remote-sensing monitoring. We integrated the cotton VW progression mechanism exploring the potential of leaf VW severity in various leaf types at different layers of cotton to indicate yield loss. Based on all main stem leaves (MLs) in cotton leaf layers 1–3 and fruit branch leaves (FLs) in layers 1–5, we proposed a practical grading method for cotton VW associated with yield loss and suitable for remote sensing monitoring, termed the Eight-Position Grading method (EPG). The results indicated FL exhibited stronger correlation with yield compared to ML, and MLs in layers 1–3 and FLs in layers 1–5 effectively indicated yield loss due to VW. EPG was compared with the technical specifications for VW severity assessment in China (GB) and its associated grading methods, demonstrating performance with a 12 % yield loss gradient while correcting overestimation in GB grading. The remote sensing applicability of EPG was theoretically validated using PROSPECT_D and mSCOPE. Field remote sensing experiment confirmed that EPG achieved preferable accuracies in estimating VW severity (R² = 0.76, RPD = 2.06) and demonstrated a strong correlation with yield (R² = 0.53). This study offers a simple and practical method for scientifically assessing VW severity and estimating yield loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110559"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143833827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The perils of naïve use of open-source data: A comment on “Spatiotemporal distribution of sudden oak death in the US and Europe”","authors":"Susan J. Frankel ,&nbsp;Matteo Garbelotto ,&nbsp;Chris Jones ,&nbsp;Niklaus J. Grünwald ,&nbsp;Robert C. Venette","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Kang et al. (2024) present a spatiotemporal analysis of <em>Phytophthora ramorum</em> outbreaks from 2005 to 2021 in the United States and Europe. However, the analysis and conclusions are flawed because of a lack of understanding of the pathosystems analyzed which led the authors to select improper methods for their analysis. The open-source data analyzed does not include sampling over all seasons of the year. Sampling is primarily conducted in the spring which makes the data unbalanced and inappropriate for examination of seasonality without transformation. Differences in characteristics, and significant driving factors (e.g., relative humidity) between the locations where infection clusters occur, irrigated nurseries with complex sources of inoculum and modified environments versus natural forests subject to only ambient environmental conditions, were not considered when analyzing relationships between moisture conditions and pathogen spread. Additional occurrence records exist for <em>P. ramorum</em> in the United States and the United Kingdom, but they were not included in the analysis. Clear descriptive language and proper study design are required to understand how environmental conditions influence <em>P. ramorum</em> establishment and spread so they can inform forest management and regulations to protect the resources at risk. An understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of Sudden Oak Death, Sudden Larch Death, Ramorum Blight and other diseases caused <em>by P. ramorum</em> is critical to serve as the basis for management strategies to limit losses and pathogen spread. The use of publicly available data presents specific challenges that need to be considered in spatiotemporal analyses to obtain meaningful results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110553"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shifted vegetation resilience from loss to gain driven by changes in water availability and solar radiation over the last two decades in Southwest China","authors":"Hui Chen ,&nbsp;Jinxiu Liu ,&nbsp;Wei He ,&nbsp;Peipei Xu ,&nbsp;Ngoc Tu Nguyen ,&nbsp;Yiming Lv ,&nbsp;Chengcheng Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, Southwest China has experienced continuous climate extremes, which could bring substantial changes to the vegetation resilience of this region, yet little is known about the evolution of vegetation resilience and its key drivers. Here we investigated the vegetation resilience in Southwest China from 2000 to 2020 using a long-term satellite-observed proxy of vegetation productivity, i.e., kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI). Specifically, we quantified the trend of vegetation resilience based on “critical slowing down” theory, and explored the drivers of resilience changes. The results indicate that since 2000, although vegetation has continued to get greening, 72.6 % of the areas experienced both greening and a loss of resilience simultaneously. Additionally, the vegetation resilience in Southwest China exhibited a clear breakpoint that switched from a loss status in the period 2000–2011 to a gain status in the period 2012–2020, whereby the greening of vegetation was not necessarily responsible for such an increase in resilience. The transition pattern from resilience loss to gain was observed across most biomes, with the exception of temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. We further found that reduced radiation pressure and increased water availability have led to a shift in resilience from loss to gain. Given that warming dominance is expected during a period of rapid climate change, we suggest that in the future more attention should be paid to the potential critical response of regional vegetation resilience to disturbance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110543"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of developmental and climate factors in driving autumn phenology across the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Shuping Ji ,&nbsp;Shilong Ren ,&nbsp;Xiaoyang Zhang ,&nbsp;Ruobing Liu ,&nbsp;Zhenyu Gao ,&nbsp;Changchao Li ,&nbsp;Lei Fang ,&nbsp;Jinyue Chen ,&nbsp;Xinfeng Wang ,&nbsp;Guoqiang Wang ,&nbsp;Qingzhu Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autumn phenology regulates the length of the growing season and carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems. Under climate change, delayed autumn phenology has been widely reported, but the driving factors are still unclear, especially the impact of developmental factors. In this study, based on satellite-derived end of the growing season (EOS) and photosynthesis data over the Northern Hemisphere (&gt;30° N) from 1982 to 2016, we comprehensively explored the potential factors influencing EOS, including developmental and preseason climate factors, and compared their effect sizes across different climate zones and vegetation types. We found the magnitude of the EOS shift was heterogeneous. The EOS delay was greater in humid regions than in arid regions, with the strongest delay in evergreen needle-leaved forest and the smallest delay in deciduous needle-leaved forest. Partial correlation analysis showed that EOS was significantly correlated with the start of the growing season (SOS) and growing season photosynthesis in only a very small proportion of pixels. A slightly prevalent positive correlation was detected between EOS and developmental factors in deciduous forests and non-warm-dry climate regions, suggesting opposing effects of earlier SOS and increased photosynthesis on autumn phenology. For climate factors, preseason warming may postpone EOS except in warm-dry areas, while increased preseason precipitation may prompt EOS to occur earlier in humid-region forests. For warm-dry regions and grasslands, water supply was also a key factor in delaying leaf senescence. Further analysis indicated that preseason temperature was the primary driver responsible for the EOS changes across all climate zones and vegetation types, while the effects of SOS and growing season photosynthesis were relatively minor. Our findings highlight the complexity of factors influencing EOS, and call for the investigation of the driving mechanisms of autumn phenology at different scales and under different climate backgrounds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143825466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Key role of ambient temperature in modulating leaf water isotopic enrichment seasonality in a humid subtropical climate","authors":"Wei Ren ,&nbsp;Lide Tian ,&nbsp;José Ignacio Querejeta","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is increasing evidence that plants enhance stomatal conductance and transpiration with rising temperatures to prevent leaf overheating especially in environments with ample water availability. We investigated the interplay among environmental parameters, plant water status and leaf physiology as drivers of monthly variations of leaf water oxygen and hydrogen isotopic enrichment above plant source water (Δ¹⁸O_L, Δ²H_L, respectively) over two years in four common tree species with contrasting leaf shapes and water-uptake patterns in a humid subtropical climate in Southwest China. We hypothesized that Δ¹⁸O_L and Δ²H_L variation throughout the year is primarily driven by air temperature seasonality through modulation of stomatal regulation of transpiration at seasonal timescale. We found tight coupling and inverse links of Δ¹⁸O_L and Δ²H_L with air temperature and leaf water content in each target species, which is consistent with the expected effect of enhanced stomatal conductance and transpiration on leaf water isotopic composition under warmer conditions. Leaf dry matter oxygen isotopic data provide further evidence of general increases in time-integrated stomatal conductance and transpiration with increasing ambient air temperature and leaf water content across species. These results support that trees can achieve effective transpirational leaf cooling under high ambient temperatures when soil water availability is also high, at both short and long timescales. Our analysis also shows that the correlations of Δ¹⁸O_L and Δ²H_L with meteorological parameters are largely unaffected by leaf morphology but can be slightly modified by water-uptake pattern among species. Finally, this study highlights the key influence of temperature-modulated seasonal changes in stomatal conductance on leaf water isotopic enrichment fluctuations through time, which sheds light on plant-environment interactions and ecosystem water fluxes in humid subtropical regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110561"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spring phenology and productivity alter vegetation vulnerability under summer droughts over Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Gengxi Zhang ,&nbsp;Huimin Wang ,&nbsp;Shuyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Thian Yew Gan ,&nbsp;Jin Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiaoling Su ,&nbsp;Xiaolei Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has intensified droughts, severely reducing vegetation productivity and even shifting the ecosystem from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Thus, understanding the spatial and temporal variations in vegetation responses to droughts is increasingly important. This study conducts coincidence analysis to examine the vulnerability and response time of vegetation to summer droughts from 1982 to 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and employs random forest and partial correlation methods to identify their underlying drivers. The results reveal that arid regions and grasslands exhibit higher coincidence rates and shorter response time. Grasslands have the highest coincidence rate (0.38) and shortest response time (23 days), followed by shrublands, savannas, deciduous forests, and evergreen forests. Trends indicate that vegetation coincidence rates increased significantly (0.1/decade from 1993 to 2013), while lagged days decreased (-7.8 days/decade from 1990 to 2005), showing greater vulnerability to droughts. Spring phenology and productivity influence coincidence rate variations in about 27 % of the study area. Higher latitudes and cold regions exhibit stronger correlations between the start of growing season dates (SOS) and coincidence rates, suggesting that earlier growing seasons may enhance resistance to summer droughts in boreal forests. Conversely, in grasslands, earlier SOS negatively correlates with coincidence rates, indicating that rapid vegetation growth increases drought-related losses. These findings highlight the need to consider vegetation phenology interactions in drought assessments to improve ecosystem resilience and predictability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110555"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The response of trees' radial growth to dry-season drought modified by neighborhood competition in humid Chinese subtropical forests","authors":"Shaowei Jiang ,&nbsp;Hanxue Liang ,&nbsp;Ping Zhao ,&nbsp;Jian Kang ,&nbsp;Qianqian Ma ,&nbsp;Shaokang Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's humid subtropical forests are subjected to increasing drought, especially drying dry seasons. However, how a tree's radial growth responds to drought (e.g., resistance and resilience) and the effect of individual competition and spatial patterns on the response relationship remain unclear. This study focuses on a widespread 2011 dry-season drought episode across China's subtropical area. Targeting dominant individuals of <em>Pinus massoniana</em>, we constructed a network of twenty-three tree ring width chronologies and tree-level competition datasets across ten latitudinal and longitudinal gradients (23.17° N ∼ 33.33° N, 108.92°E ∼ 119.27°E) and large elevation gradients (70 m-1280 m). This was done to determine tree drought resistance and resilience and their linear relationships with competition, elevation, latitude, and longitude using the dendrochronology method. We found that the 2011 dry-season drought caused a 15 % loss in trees’ radial growth. Additionally, competition from larger neighboring trees weakened drought resistance and resilience. We also found that drought resistance and resilience had a positive elevation pattern and a negative longitude pattern. Our results suggest that an appropriate thinning practice for large trees could enhance radial growth/wood production to cope with climate change. Given these findings, relevant research that considers more tree species is needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110552"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improved GPP upscaling from instantaneous measurements to daily sums using the light-use-efficiency-based model","authors":"Ruonan Chen ,&nbsp;Xinjie Liu ,&nbsp;Liangyun Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid development of satellite technology has greatly contributed to the estimation of global terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). However, most satellites only obtain instantaneous photosynthetic signals at overpass time. Given the demand for all-day GPP in application studies, this leads to the problem of gaps. Therefore, a temporal upscaling process is needed for daily GPP estimation. Most traditional methods consider the change in the total amount of incident light during a day while ignoring the impact of light use efficiency (LUE) on the diurnal trajectories of GPP, which produces uncertainties in the temporally upscaled results. In this study, using simulations from the SCOPE model and tower-based measurements, we find that the diurnal shape of GPP trajectories is dependent on the latitude of site, DOY, and LAI. By investigating how the canopy structure (LAI employed in this study) influences the light response of LUE and subsequently affects diurnal variations in GPP, we proposed a temporal upscaling method considering the diurnal variation in LUE at the canopy scale. To account for the impact of varying temperature and moisture throughout the day, an asymmetric correction factor was also included. Compared with previous upscaling schemes based on the cosine of SZA, PAR, PAR×NDVI, etc., our LUE-based method showed higher R² and lower RMSE values on both simulations (R² of 0.993, ∆ R² up to 0.008; RMSE of 0.274 gC m⁻² d⁻¹, ∆ RMSE up to 0.058 gC m⁻² d⁻¹,which is 1.763 % of the mean simulated GPP) and tower-based observations (average R² of 0.970, ∆ R² up to 0.09; average RMSE of 0.453 gC m⁻² d⁻¹, ∆ RMSE up to 0.410 gC m⁻² d⁻¹, which is 7.70 % of the mean observed GPP). Moreover, it outperforms traditional methods in low LAI conditions and at low-latitude sites where upscaling is more challenging. Therefore, the LUE-based method exhibits higher robustness, smaller disparities across sites, and less dependence on the time window, which is of great importance for the better estimation of daily GPP from instantaneous satellite observations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110529"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scaling dendroecological studies on oaks combining different sampling schemes along a regional climatic gradient","authors":"Balázs Garamszegi ,&nbsp;Michael Grabner ,&nbsp;Sonja Vospernik ,&nbsp;Josef Gadermaier ,&nbsp;Elisabeth Wächter ,&nbsp;Fabian Lehner ,&nbsp;Klaus Katzensteiner","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tree-rings provide the longest available quantitative records of tree and forest growth conditions at a high, annual temporal resolution. Sampling designs of dendroecological studies are typically planned for local representativity, without systematic data collection at a greater spatial scale. The integration of different sampling schemes may, however, facilitate the upscaling of findings conforming the information needs of forest planning.</div><div>In this study, we test the transferability of statistical models of the climate sensitivity of the radial growth of oaks between two complementing sampling designs and for two consecutive 30-year periods. Tree-ring width datasets are based on (i) single-core samples of 665 trees from the common oak species <em>Quercus petraea</em> and <em>Q. robur</em> collected at 520 stratified “extensive” sampling sites within a forest site classification project in Austria, and (ii) seven “intensive” sampling sites with 15 <em>Q. petraea</em> specimens sampled along two stem radii at each site. Both sampling designs span along a climatic gradient representing the entire climatic range of the species in Austria, approaching also the xeric edge of its distribution.</div><div>The climate sensitivity of the radial growth, defined as the strongest-on-average correlation with climatic variables, is found to be mainly driven by the climatic water balance both along the climatic gradient and during its change over two consecutive periods of analysis. The performance of the regression models on the complementing testing datasets indicates that the main patterns of climate sensitivity can be well-captured by both sampling schemes. Moreover, the intra-population variability of climate sensitivity at the “intensive” sites was comparable in its magnitude to the variability among the “extensive” sites under similar climatic conditions.</div><div>Our findings indicate that, in a regional context, the main spatiotemporal patterns of the relationships between the climatic drivers and radial growth allow for space-for-time projections under shifting climatic conditions. However, a better understanding of the intra-population variability and the temporal changes thereof can be decisive for the interpretation of dendroecological findings at different scales. Although linear estimations of the spatiotemporal variations of the climate sensitivity along the shifting climatic gradient are largely descriptive for the scope of this study, potential non-linear effects, especially in relation to the changing frequency and severity of extreme weather events may require special attention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110554"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global vegetation dynamics under decreased terrestrial water storage: Insights into water stress response","authors":"Yuanhang Yang ,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin ,&nbsp;Louise J. Slater ,&nbsp;Pan Liu ,&nbsp;Liqiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Yao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a critical role in regulating global water-energy budget, significantly influencing water availability and carbon sequestration dynamics. However, how decreased TWS affect terrestrial carbon assimilation under climate change remains poorly understood. This study explores the influence of TWS on vegetation productivity across diverse ecosystems by synthesizing satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, field measurements, and long-term TWS reconstructions. We apply a supervised machine learning model and path analysis to examine how dominant water-heat factors—such as soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, precipitation and temperature—regulate vegetation photosynthesis under varying levels of water stress. Moreover, we employ a large set of hydro-climate models to project future TWS scenarios, and quantify their impacts on vegetation productivity in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that intensifying drought conditions, indicated by decreased TWS, lead to increasingly severe reductions in vegetation productivity, particularly in water-limited regions. The integrated model framework projects that climate warming could significantly worsen drought impacts on vegetation productivity. As drought severity escalates from moderate drought to exceptional drought, the global average gross primary productivity decreases from -3.20 <span><math><mrow><mi>g</mi><msup><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mi>d</mi><mi>a</mi><msup><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>to -7.10<span><math><mrow><mi>g</mi><msup><mrow><mi>m</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mi>d</mi><mi>a</mi><msup><mrow><mi>y</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>under low carbon emission scenarios. These insights highlight the critical need to develop robust strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience against worsening drought conditions, underscoring a key aspect of climate adaptation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"368 ","pages":"Article 110549"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}