Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献

{"title":"Opposite effects of temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth onset in Africa","authors":"Siqi Shi , Peiqi Yang , Anton Vrieling , Christiaan van der Tol","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the responses of vegetation phenology to climate change is of great importance in predicting land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. Previous studies have revealed a delayed start of the growing season (SOS) in most African regions over the past three decades, contrasting with the advancing trend observed in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the climatic drivers of this SOS delay in Africa remain unclear. We investigated the responses of SOS to pre-season precipitation (<span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) and temperature (<span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) across Africa, and quantified the sensitivity of SOS to temporal variations in <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> from 1982 to 2022. The results reveal that temporal variations of SOS were strongly correlated with both <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, but with divergent effects in Africa. Specifically, SOS was negatively correlated with <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, while positively correlated with <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>. An increase in <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 10 mm corresponded to an average advancement of SOS by 1.5 days (i.e., -0.15 days/mm), while a 1 °C warming in <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> led to a delay of 4.7 days (i.e., 4.7 days/°C) in SOS for Africa. Under climate change, <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> over Africa significantly increased 0.03 °C/yr, while <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> slightly increased 0.10 mm/yr. The delay induced by the increasing <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> was more pronounced than the advance induced by the increasing <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, leading to widespread SOS delays across Africa. Furthermore, we observed that SOS was more sensitive to <span><math><msub><mi>P</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> in drier areas (relatively lower annual precipitation areas), while higher sensitivity to <span><math><msub><mi>T</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>s</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> in wetter areas (relatively higher annual precipitation areas). Similarly, along the gradients of spatial annual temperature, higher temperature sensitivity was found in lower annual temperature areas. Our study underscores the intricate re","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110604"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143946284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Higher warming rate in global arid regions driven by decreased ecosystem latent heat under rising vapor pressure deficit from 1981 to 2022","authors":"Jingping Wang ,&nbsp;Hanlin Niu ,&nbsp;Shupeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiuzhi Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaosheng Xia ,&nbsp;Yanwu Zhang ,&nbsp;Xingjie Lu ,&nbsp;Bin He ,&nbsp;Tongwen Wu ,&nbsp;Chaoqing Song ,&nbsp;Zheng Fu ,&nbsp;Jingyu Yao ,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an indicator of atmospheric dryness, is a critical environmental factor influencing terrestrial ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET), with the energy required for ET being supplied by latent heat flux (LE). VPD significantly affects regional and global climate systems by altering surface energy allocation. Under ongoing global warming, VPD is expected to increase continuously, amplifying its climatic impact. In this study, we systematically quantify the responses of ecosystem LE to VPD across different climatic zones using global eddy covariance observations and remote sensing-based modeling. The observational data reveal that LE decreases with rising VPD in arid regions, partly due to limited soil moisture, whereas LE increases in humid regions. Using an improved Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith (RS-PM) model, we estimate global LE from 1981 to 2022, and the modeled trends corroborate the observed spatial patterns: declining LE in arid regions and rising LE in humid zones. This finding corresponds with the divergent warming trends, with greater temperature increases in arid regions linked to a higher proportion of net radiation converted to sensible heat, thereby intensifying local warming. Our results comprehensively characterize the differential LE-VPD relationships under varying climatic conditions by integrating multi-source observations, advancing the understanding of local climate changes driven by LE. These findings are crucial for understanding the varying temperature trends between arid and humid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110622"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating the growth and yields of Brachiaria Brizantha using the CROPGRO-perennial forage model under present and future climate conditions in subhumid environments of Ethiopia","authors":"Fantahun Dereje ,&nbsp;Ashenafi Mengistu ,&nbsp;Diriba Geleti ,&nbsp;Diriba Diba ,&nbsp;Fekede Feyissa ,&nbsp;Diego Pequeno ,&nbsp;Buzunesh Tesfaye","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Brachiaria is a crucial forage crop in tropical and subtropical regions, but there is limited research on its response to climate change in Ethiopia. This study aimed to (1) calibrate and evaluate the performance of the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model and (2) assess the impact of climate change on future Brachiaria brizantha yield in the subhumid environments of Ethiopia. Field data from Debre Zeit (Bishoftu) and Bako Agricultural Research Centers were used to calibrate and evaluate the model for accurately simulating rainfed growth and biomass yield. Weather data, including rainfall, temperature, and solar radiation, were obtained from Bishoftu and Bako weather stations. Historical and future climate scenarios for the near future, mid-century, and end of the 21st century were derived from the CORDEX Africa outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The calibration process involved refining parameters related to senescence and dormancy, vegetative partitioning, and N stress to improve the model's performance. Simulation results for future climate scenarios indicated an expected increase in biomass accumulation, with positive responses in the shoot, herbage biomass, and stem. However, leaf biomass and crude protein percentage of herbage are expected to decline. Overall, the production of B. brizantha is anticipated to increase in subhumid Ethiopian environments. Using simulations of CROPGRO-PFM can account for uncertainties about the impact of future climate change on Brachiaria grass. Further studies on Brachiaria forage responses under different management practices are advisable, to provide comprehensive information to policymakers and planners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110605"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143936402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing predictors for fuel moisture content in Central European forests","authors":"Johanna Kranz ,&nbsp;Konrad Bauer ,&nbsp;Valerio Pampanoni ,&nbsp;Li Zhao ,&nbsp;Christopher Marrs ,&nbsp;Matthias Mauder ,&nbsp;Markéta Poděbradská ,&nbsp;Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen ,&nbsp;Marta Yebra ,&nbsp;Matthias Forkel","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110590","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The moisture content of litter, woody debris and living vegetation controls the ignition and spread of fires and the composition of fire emissions. Since many forests in Central Europe were not considered fire-prone, very few observations and knowledge about fuel moisture content (FMC) are available. In this study, we aim to evaluate the representativeness of (i) continuous FMC measurements from <em>in situ</em> fuel sticks, (ii) a model of litter fuel moisture (Koba model) and (iii) a vapour pressure deficit based model for FMC of litter and woody debris across four temperate forest sites in Germany. Following this, we investigate fire weather indices from <em>in situ</em> meteorological or large-scale models and satellite products as potential predictors of live and dead FMC in a correlation analysis and using univariate generalised additive models (GAM). Our results suggest that continuous 10-hour fuel stick measurements are predominantly in agreement with litter FMC in coniferous and deciduous stands. The Koba model shows a very high correlation with dead-FMC. Among the components of the fire weather index, the fine fuel moisture code emerged as the best predictor of fuel stick measurements (GAM performance: R<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>=0.87, RMSE=4.1%), reflecting the expected relationship to destructively measured <em>in situ</em> FMC of litter and fine woody debris. FMC of live fuels is not or only weakly correlated with meteorological variables but moderate correlation was achieved with live-FMC retrievals from the Sentinel-1 radar satellite. The fire weather index from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) underestimates the variability of locally measured fire weather and FMC. In summary, our results demonstrate the potential of local fire weather, fuel moisture measurements and of the litter fuel moisture model to enhance an accurate assessment of forest fire danger in Central European forests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110590"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Site aridity has a stronger impact on nocturnal sap flow than species with contrasting stomatal behaviors on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Fang Wang ,&nbsp;Junzhou Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaohua Gou ,&nbsp;Zhaoyong Hu ,&nbsp;Fen Zhang ,&nbsp;Zihong Man ,&nbsp;Qipeng Sun ,&nbsp;Min Xu ,&nbsp;Patrick Fonti","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of drought episodes, altering regional aridity levels. Previous studies have focused on the temporary impacts of seasonal drought on nocturnal sap flow, but how long-term site aridity levels and species-specific stomatal behaviors influence nocturnal sap flow remains unclear. Here, we monitored sap flux density and relevant environmental factors for 16 isohydric Qinghai spruce (<em>Picea crassifolia</em>) trees on the north-facing slope and 14 anisohydric Qilian juniper (<em>Juniperus przewalskii</em>) trees on the south-facing slope at four arid to semi-arid sites on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We assessed their nocturnal sap flux density (<em>F</em>_n), nocturnal sap flow volume (<em>Q</em>_n), and the proportion of <em>Q</em>_n to daily sap flow volume (<em>Q</em>_n/<em>Q</em>) over the growing season (May through September) in 2019. Our results show that <em>Q</em>_n on non-rainy days accounted for about 83 % of total <em>Q</em>_n on all days in the arid region and about 78 % in the semi-arid region. The average <em>Q</em>_n/<em>Q</em> on the non-rainy days was 8 % for Qilian juniper and 5 % for Qinghai spruce at the arid sites, while it was 15 % and 14 %, respectively, at the semi-arid sites. Differences in <em>F</em>_n and <em>Q</em>_n/<em>Q</em> were more pronounced between aridity levels (2–4 times) than between species (&lt; 1.3 times). In the semi-arid region, atmospheric vapor pressure deficit dominated <em>F</em>_n for both species (<em>r</em> = 0.86 for juniper and 0.78 for spruce), while soil water potential had a more significant impact on <em>F</em>_n in the arid region (<em>r</em> = 0.26 for juniper and 0.57 for spruce). Our findings suggest that site aridity levels have a stronger impact on nocturnal sap flow and its environmental response than species-specific stomatal behaviors in high-elevation dryland ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110611"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143933519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating generic agrivoltaic systems with ORCHIDEE: Model development and multi-case study insights","authors":"Lia Rapella ,&nbsp;Nicolas Viovy ,&nbsp;Jan Polcher ,&nbsp;Davide Faranda ,&nbsp;Jordi Badosa ,&nbsp;Philippe Drobinski","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agrivoltaics (AVs) has emerged as a promising solution to address the competing demands for land, energy, and food production within the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus. However, its effects depend on climate, crops and local conditions, requiring large-scale models capable of capturing these variations. For this purpose, our study introduces a new regional-scale AV model, at the interface with regional climate models and the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model, to explore the interactions between climate, AV systems and crops within the WEFE nexus. The model is applied to two AV configurations across three distinct climates (dry, wet, and climatological) over the Iberian Peninsula and The Netherlands , using two generic crop types. The results reveal that in arid regions with high solar radiation, such as in the southern Iberian Peninsula, AV systems offer many advantages, particularly in dry years: increased crop productivity, enhanced food security and better use of water and land, while producing renewable energy. In contrast, in The Netherlands , characterized by abundant rainfall and lower solar radiation, AV systems tend to reduce crop productivity, and the gains in terms of water and land use are less marked. These findings highlight the model ability to assess AV systems by capturing regional specificity and varying responses to different climatic contexts. They suggest that optimizing AV system designs involves a nuanced approach, carefully balancing the synergies across energy production, agricultural productivity, and resource use while managing the trade-offs inherent to different climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110589"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Role of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Wind and Turbulence on Surface Pollen Levels","authors":"Juana Andújar-Maqueda ,&nbsp;Pablo Ortiz-Amezcua ,&nbsp;Paloma Cariñanos ,&nbsp;Jesús Abril-Gago ,&nbsp;Concepción De Linares ,&nbsp;Gregori de Arruda Moreira ,&nbsp;Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda ,&nbsp;María José Granados-Muñoz ,&nbsp;Lucas Alados-Arboledas ,&nbsp;Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is the lowest layer of the atmosphere, where most of the interactions between the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface occur. Within this layer, the air movements and the turbulent processes facilitate the dispersion and transport of particles. This work quantifies the effect of ABL-dynamics related variables on the surface pollen concentrations in the city of Granada, southeastern Spain. The Main Pollen Season (MPS) of two pollen types (<em>Olea</em> and Cupressaceae) and Doppler lidar data for different height ranges and ABL regimes were used for the period 2017-2022 and statistically analyzed based on Spearman correlations and Generalized Linear Model (GLM). <em>Olea</em> pollen concentrations, mainly originating from sources in the outskirts of the city, were significantly influenced by daytime wind direction, transporting high concentrations into the urban area, explaining up to 28% of the variability of the <em>Olea</em> pollen concentrations in the ABL of the city. At night, surface <em>Olea</em> pollen concentrations were affected by vertical wind, which explain the 5% of the variability, leading to fluctuations associated with its vertical transport. For Cupressaceae pollen concentrations, however, the pollen sources are located within the city and surface concentrations of Cupressaceae pollen are predominantly influenced by the urban ABL. The variability in surface concentrations is partly determined by diverse phenomena and conditions occurring across different regimes of ABL dynamics. Katabatic flows significantly contributed to Cupressaceae pollen concentrations at night, while high turbulence produced by the convective boundary layer (CBL) played a key role in their dispersion during daytime, explaining up to 10% of the variability of the Cupressaceae pollen concentrations near to surface. The difference in the results between both pollen types can be attributed to several interrelated factors such as location of sources, local weather conditions, different ABL regimes, intrinsic characteristics of pollen, and the flowering phenology and interactions with other environmental factors. The overall results demonstrate the substantial influence of ABL dynamics on surface pollen concentrations (explain up to 29% of the variability for <em>Olea</em> pollen concentrations and 37% for Cupressaceae ones), highlighting its crucial role in the particle transport, dispersion and distribution in the atmosphere. These findings emphasize the need for a better understanding of the ABL to adequately address air quality and public health challenges in urban environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110584"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143928224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the combined effects of drought and drought-flood abrupt alternation on vegetation using interpretable machine learning model and r-vine copula function","authors":"Lulu Xie ,&nbsp;Yi Li ,&nbsp;Ziya Zhang ,&nbsp;Kadambot H.M. Siddique ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Song","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as drought and drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA). Vegetation, a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems, contributes greatly to agricultural production and economic development. Assessing the impacts of droughts and DFAA on vegetation is essential for ecological environment protection, food security, and economic development. This study combines the random forest model with Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to create an interpretable machine learning model, which is then coupled with the R-Vine Copula function to explore the combined effects of drought (using nonstationary drought indexes) and DFAA (using the SDFAI: short-cycle drought flood abrupt alteration index) on vegetation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from 1981 to 2019. The key findings are as follows: (1) Drought events intensified, the risk of flood-to-drought decreased, the risk of drought-to-flood increased, and net primary productivity (NPP) showed an upward trend; (2) The relative contributions to NPP were NSPEI (21.0 %), SDFAI (31.4 %), and SSMI (47.6 %); (3) A strong upper tail dependence occurred between SSMI and NPP, and a strong lower tail dependence occurred between SDFAI and SSMI. When SSMI acted as an intermediary variable, the indirect correlation between SDFAI and NPP was strong; (4) In flood-to-drought events, the proportions of SHAP&lt;0 and SHAP&gt;0 were 24 % and 76 %, respectively, indicating an antagonistic role of flood-to-drought in promoting vegetation growth in the CPEC. In drought-to-flood events, the corresponding proportions were 73 % and 27 %, respectively, indicating a synergistic effect of drought-to-flood in inhibiting vegetation growth. This study enhances the understanding of the mechanisms by which DFAA impacts vegetation and provides a novel approach for exploring the combined effects of multiple extreme events on vegetation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"370 ","pages":"Article 110568"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warmer winter under climate change would reshape the winter subsurface drainage pattern in Eastern Canada","authors":"Ziwei Li ,&nbsp;Zhiming Qi ,&nbsp;Junzeng Xu ,&nbsp;Yuchen Liu ,&nbsp;Ward N. Smith ,&nbsp;Andrew VanderZaag ,&nbsp;Tiequan Zhang ,&nbsp;Birk Li ,&nbsp;Haomiao Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Subsurface drainage is a key loss pathway for water and nutrients from agricultural land in Eastern Canada. Winter is a dominant period of subsurface drainage and nutrient loss in cold climates. Under climate change, however, future winter drainage patterns may change significantly due to reductions in snow cover and soil freezing. This study evaluated the performance of four machine-learning (ML) models in simulating winter subsurface drainage for five sites in Eastern Canada. The calibrated/trained ML models were then applied to predicted future climate (high emission scenario: RCP8.5) from 1950 to 2100 to comprehend the potential alteration in winter drainage patterns under global warming. Among ML models, the Cubist and SVM-RBF models emerged as the most accurate, offering competing short-term simulation (≤7 years) capabilities compared to the RZ-SHAW model with lower computational demand. However, ML models’ long-term projections under climate change scenarios revealed inconsistencies from insufficient and unbalanced observed winter subsurface drainage data. Simulation by both the RZ-SHAW and ML models predict a significant increase in winter drainage volume by the end of the 21st century (1950–2005 vs. 2070–2100) (RZ-SHAW: 243 mm to 328 mm (+35 %); ML models: 250 mm to 425 mm (+70 %)). RZ-SHAW simulated a shift towards a more evenly spread drainage pattern throughout the winter months from baseline to the end of the century. This shift was driven by the simulated shorter snow coverage periods, advancement of snowmelt timing, and fewer days of freezing soil. Thus, the timing of peak and trough winter drainage is expected to reverse, with February becoming the peak month and April the lowest by the century's end.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"370 ","pages":"Article 110602"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The stand age governs forest root: Shoot ratios across northeast China","authors":"Han Wu ,&nbsp;Zhenggang Du ,&nbsp;Lingyan Zhou ,&nbsp;Guiyao Zhou ,&nbsp;Giovanni Coco ,&nbsp;Jing Gao ,&nbsp;Xuhui Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Root: shoot (RS) ratios are widely used to estimate global and regional forest carbon stocks and to model the forest carbon cycle. However, limited knowledge is available regarding factors that determine RS spatial patterns, particularly in high-latitude temperate regions. Therefore, in this study, we compiled 189 measurements of forest RSs across Northeast China to evaluate the main drivers of RS patterns. An optimal machine learning model was selected to upscale the RS data and estimate belowground biomass carbon in Northeast China. The results showed that the stand age had the greatest impact on RS variation (contribution of 17.6 %), exceeding the influence of other predictors and increasing the coefficient of determination of the RS by 41 % in a structural equation model. Regional RS values decreased from 0.22 ± 0.02 to 0.16 ± 0.01 as the stand age increased from less than 20 years to over 60 years. Higher estimated RS values were found in both forests with a stand age of 40–60 years (19.3 %) and over 60 years (22.6 %) when the stand age was not considered. We also found that our RS estimates were lower (mean value = 0.21 ± 0.05) than Earth system models (0.25 ± 0.03) and remote sensing-based estimates (0.5 ± 0.05), resulting in 33.2 % and 62.7 % lower estimates of belowground biomass carbon in Northeast China, respectively. The results of this study highlight the importance of the stand age in forest carbon allocation, representing a factor that should be incorporated when estimating current and future carbon sequestration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"370 ","pages":"Article 110595"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143916312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}