American Naturalist最新文献

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Rethinking Tipping Points in Spatial Ecosystems. 重新思考空间生态系统的临界点。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1086/739177
Swarnendu Banerjee, Mara Baudena, Paul Carter, Robbin Bastiaansen, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk
{"title":"Rethinking Tipping Points in Spatial Ecosystems.","authors":"Swarnendu Banerjee, Mara Baudena, Paul Carter, Robbin Bastiaansen, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk","doi":"10.1086/739177","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739177","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractTipping point theory has garnered substantial attention over recent decades. It predicts abrupt and often irreversible transitions from one ecosystem state to an alternative state. However, ecosystem models that predict tipping typically neglect spatial dynamics. Recent studies reveal that incorporating spatial dynamics may enable ecosystems to evade tipping predicted by nonspatial models. Here, we use a dryland and a savanna-forest model to synthesize mechanisms by which spatial processes can alter the theory of tipping. We further propose that the underlying drivers of positive feedback leading to alternative stable states may provide insight into the tipping evasion mechanisms most relevant to a specific ecosystem. For instance, while positive feedbacks may arise in drylands from direct self-facilitation, such as enhancing the uptake of a limiting resource, at the savanna-forest boundary, it may arise from mutual inhibition between two ecosystem components. In the former case ecosystems can evade tipping by forming self-organized patterns, whereas in the latter the presence of environmental heterogeneity may be required. Our study highlights that deepening our understanding of how ecological feedbacks connect to tipping evasion mechanisms is crucial to formulate better strategies to increase ecosystem resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 4","pages":"483-502"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147488384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hot-Dry Weather Is Associated with Worse Reproductive Outcomes Regardless of Group Composition in a Long-Lived Cooperatively Breeding Bird. 在长期合作繁殖的鸟类中,无论群体组成如何,炎热干燥的天气都与较差的繁殖结果有关。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1086/739305
Kyle-Mark Middleton, Carrie Hickman, Claire N Spottiswoode, Fanny Rybak, Rita Covas
{"title":"Hot-Dry Weather Is Associated with Worse Reproductive Outcomes Regardless of Group Composition in a Long-Lived Cooperatively Breeding Bird.","authors":"Kyle-Mark Middleton, Carrie Hickman, Claire N Spottiswoode, Fanny Rybak, Rita Covas","doi":"10.1086/739305","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739305","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractAnthropogenic climate change is driving increases in temperature and droughts. Cooperative breeding, common in regions with greater environmental variation, has been proposed to buffer against such conditions, but findings across taxa are mixed. Life history strategies may partly explain these discrepancies, as long-lived species should invest less in reproduction. We examined how climatic, social, and life history factors affect reproduction in the long-lived cooperative southern ground-hornbill (<i>Bucorvus leadbeateri</i>). Using 17 years of data from 23 groups within the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa, we tested for associations between temperature, rainfall and group composition, and several reproductive parameters. Low winter rainfall decreased breeding probability, while higher temperatures delayed laying and reduced nestling mass, regardless of group composition. Nestlings had longer tarsi in groups with more adults, and groups with more juveniles bred earlier and were more likely to breed, likely reflecting territory quality rather than group composition. In conclusion, hot and dry conditions negatively impacted ground-hornbill breeding, and, as expected given their life history, group composition did not mitigate these effects. We suggest that life history strategies and nonreproductive benefits of collective behavior, such as resource defense and survival, should be considered when assessing cooperative breeders' responses to environmental fluctuations.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 4","pages":"519-532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147488369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evolution of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) Defensive Traits following the Stocking of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). 三刺棘鱼(Gasterosteus aculeatus)在布鲁克鳟鱼(Salvelinus fontinalis)放养后防御性状的进化。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1086/739174
Grant E Haines, Sarah Sanderson, Rosalie Morin-Nadeau, Andrew P Hendry
{"title":"Evolution of Threespine Stickleback (<i>Gasterosteus aculeatus</i>) Defensive Traits following the Stocking of Brook Trout (<i>Salvelinus fontinalis</i>).","authors":"Grant E Haines, Sarah Sanderson, Rosalie Morin-Nadeau, Andrew P Hendry","doi":"10.1086/739174","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739174","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractIn recent decades, numerous observations have been made of evolution induced by anthropogenic change in natural populations. Evolution in response to harvest, climate change, pollution, landscape change, and introduced invasive species are common. Here, we provide evidence for evolution in a new context by documenting a large increase in the frequency of defensive pelvic spines in two unusual threespine stickleback (<i>Gasterosteus aculeatus</i>) populations previously shown to mostly lack such structures. These populations, in Parc national du Lac-Témiscouata, Québec, Canada, were historically free of predatory fish and consisted nearly entirely of pelvic-spineless stickleback. This phenotypic change coincided with the stocking of the lakes with brook trout (<i>Salvelinus fontinalis</i>), a stickleback predator, and the introductions of other species used by anglers as live bait. The rapid evolutionary change toward a more defensive morph in the populations should prompt increased caution regarding the effects of management practices on native species.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 4","pages":"590-597"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147488379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Morphological and Ecological Predictors of Migration in Shorebirds (A Phylogenetic Perspective). 滨鸟迁徙的形态学和生态学预测因子(系统发育的视角)。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1086/739317
M Alejandra Gutierrez-Zorrilla, Benjamin Halliwell, Eric J Woehler, Christopher P Burridge
{"title":"Morphological and Ecological Predictors of Migration in Shorebirds (A Phylogenetic Perspective).","authors":"M Alejandra Gutierrez-Zorrilla, Benjamin Halliwell, Eric J Woehler, Christopher P Burridge","doi":"10.1086/739317","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739317","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractMigration is the synchronized movement of a large part of a population from breeding grounds to nonbreeding grounds driven by seasonal variation of resources and avoidance of harsh winter conditions. Migration is a central component of many species' life histories, including birds, mammals, fishes, and invertebrates. However, the interplay of ecological and evolutionary drivers of migration has long intrigued biologists and remains contentious. Shorebirds represent a valuable group for testing multiple predictors of migration, as they demonstrate a range of morphological and ecological characteristics (e.g., wing shape and habitat breadth) and a large proportion of shorebird species migrate. Here we tested whether breeding site climate, wing shape, body mass, and number of habitats occupied can predict migration across 196 shorebird species using novel Bayesian regression modeling allowing explicit decomposition of trait correlations into both phylogenetic and nonphylogenetic components. Increasing climate seasonality and pointier wing shapes favoring dispersal appeared strongly associated with migration, matching our predictions and potentially reflecting resource availability optimization and the energetic costs of migration. Higher number of habitats occupied also appeared associated with migration, perhaps reflecting selection to decrease the specific habitat requirements of migration transits. The lack of a significant relationship for body mass may reflect conflicting selection pressures, as migration efficiency (energetics) increases with body size but migration duration (and time that can be spent at breeding sites) decreases.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 4","pages":"533-545"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147488343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating Genomic Offset Predictions in a Forest Tree with High Population Genetic Structure. 高种群遗传结构树种基因组偏移预测评价
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1086/739045
Juliette Archambeau, Marta Benito Garzón, Marina de Miguel, Alexandre Changenet, Francesca Bagnoli, Frédéric Barraquand, Maurizio Marchi, Giovanni G Vendramin, Stephen Cavers, Annika Perry, Santiago C González-Martínez
{"title":"Evaluating Genomic Offset Predictions in a Forest Tree with High Population Genetic Structure.","authors":"Juliette Archambeau, Marta Benito Garzón, Marina de Miguel, Alexandre Changenet, Francesca Bagnoli, Frédéric Barraquand, Maurizio Marchi, Giovanni G Vendramin, Stephen Cavers, Annika Perry, Santiago C González-Martínez","doi":"10.1086/739045","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739045","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractGenomic offset models are increasingly popular tools for identifying populations at risk of maladaptation under climate change. These models estimate the extent of genetic change required for populations to remain adapted under future climate change scenarios but face strong limitations and still lack broad empirical testing. Using 9,817 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped in 454 trees from 34 populations of maritime pine, a species with a marked population genetic structure, we found substantial variability across genomic offset predictions from different methods, SNP sets, and general circulation models. Using five common gardens, we mostly found positive associations between genomic offset predictions and mortality, as expected. However, contrary to our expectations, we observed very few negative monotonic associations between genomic offset predictions and height. Higher mortality rates were also observed in national forest inventory plots with high genomic offset, but only for some methods and SNP sets. The differing genomic offset patterns produced by the best-validated methods across the maritime pine range hindered drawing definitive conclusions for the species. Our study demonstrates the imperative of employing different methods and validating genomic offset predictions with independent data sources before using them as reliable metrics to inform conservation or management.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"389-414"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Linking Genomic Offset Statistics to the Shape of Selection Gradients. 链接基因组偏移统计与选择梯度的形状。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1086/739079
Thibaut Capblancq, Aurélien Tauzin, Yves Vigouroux, Philippe Cubry, Olivier François
{"title":"Linking Genomic Offset Statistics to the Shape of Selection Gradients.","authors":"Thibaut Capblancq, Aurélien Tauzin, Yves Vigouroux, Philippe Cubry, Olivier François","doi":"10.1086/739079","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739079","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractGenomic offset metrics are increasingly used to predict population maladaptation under changing climates, based on the assumption of a negative statistical relationship between offset measures and local relative fitness. Recent theoretical advances have confirmed this relationship by relating genomic offset to phenotypic trait distances along selection gradients. However, these metrics typically rely on the assumption that stabilizing selection, which maintains local adaptive optima, operates on fitness-related traits through Gaussian-shaped selection gradients. In this study, we extend the theory to accommodate more diverse forms of selection gradients and introduce more general genomic offset measures that preserve the fitness-offset relationship. We validate this generalization through simulations and demonstrate the utility of these new measures in predicting relative fitness in common garden experiments involving three plant species: pearl millet, a vital staple cereal grown in arid soils, and two emblematic North American tree species, balsam poplar and red spruce. Our findings indicate that assuming a local Gaussian-shaped selection gradient for climate adaptation is a robust approximation for these species. These results have important implications for validating genomic offset predictions using fitness proxies and for studies that aim to predict fitness loss based on genomic offset metrics.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"356-367"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Genomic Change with Time Series Sequence Data. 用时间序列数据预测基因组变化。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1086/739046
Danny Jackson, Henrey A Deese, Allyson Placko, Isabella L G Weiler, Sabrina M McNew
{"title":"Forecasting Genomic Change with Time Series Sequence Data.","authors":"Danny Jackson, Henrey A Deese, Allyson Placko, Isabella L G Weiler, Sabrina M McNew","doi":"10.1086/739046","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739046","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractHumans drive species evolution in numerous ways, ranging from the deliberate interventions of domestication to the indirect but far-reaching impacts of climate change. Anticipating how species will adapt to these pressures assumes that evolution is, to some extent, predictable. Evidence of parallel evolution from time series studies can inform such forecasts. In this article we review time series genomic studies, which directly quantify evolution by sampling populations over time. First, we evaluate the extent to which selection drives parallel adaptation in time series studies. We give specific attention to evolution in response to anthropogenic drivers of change and within host-parasite interactions, which represent major themes in the literature. Then we analyze the patterns seen in retrospective genomic time series studies to identify how distinct drivers of change influence evolutionary processes such as population structure, gene flow, and genetic diversity. Finally, we draw from current advancements in population genomics to anticipate how time series data will be analyzed in the near future to provide recommendations for both researchers and methods developers.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"448-465"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Comparison of Genomic Forecasts Based on Genotypes versus Allele Frequencies. 基于基因型和等位基因频率的基因组预测比较。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1086/739098
Brandon M Lind, Katie E Lotterhos
{"title":"A Comparison of Genomic Forecasts Based on Genotypes versus Allele Frequencies.","authors":"Brandon M Lind, Katie E Lotterhos","doi":"10.1086/739098","DOIUrl":"10.1086/739098","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractAccelerating land use and climate change threaten to disrupt relationships between adaptive variation and environmental optima of many species. Consequently, management must increasingly identify nonlocal genetic sources for restoration programs. Genomic offset methods, such as gradientForests, have shown promise in identifying these sources using genomic data, potentially bypassing the need for traditional, time-consuming transplant experiments. However, previous studies primarily used population-level allele frequencies (AFs) for training and population mean fitness for evaluation, ignoring individual variation within populations. Here, we used simulation data to compare the accuracy of genotype- and AF-based models, factorially evaluated using both individual and population mean fitness. With more than 810,000 evaluations of such models, we found that the number of loci had little impact on model performance. As expected, population-level evaluation provided an optimistic view of predictive performance for both genomic inputs. While genotype- and AF-based models showed similar qualitative and quantitative aspects, genotype-based models improved predictions in landscapes that differed from strict environmental clines by incorporating additional loci beyond those used by AF-based models. This suggests that genotype-based models may enhance offset predictions in environments that are discontinuous and have multiple populations in geographically distant yet similar environments. We close with recommendations for future use and evaluation of these tools.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"368-388"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying Areas of Potential Risk Based on Future Genetic Adaptability in Three Arctic Whale Species. 基于三种北极鲸的未来遗传适应性确定潜在风险区域。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1086/738889
Evelien de Greef, Claudio Müller, Anthony A Snead, L Ruth Rivkin, Steven H Ferguson, Cortney A Watt, Marianne Marcoux, Stephen D Petersen, Colin J Garroway
{"title":"Identifying Areas of Potential Risk Based on Future Genetic Adaptability in Three Arctic Whale Species.","authors":"Evelien de Greef, Claudio Müller, Anthony A Snead, L Ruth Rivkin, Steven H Ferguson, Cortney A Watt, Marianne Marcoux, Stephen D Petersen, Colin J Garroway","doi":"10.1086/738889","DOIUrl":"10.1086/738889","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractAssessments of adaptive genetic diversity across multiple species are necessary for improving the efficacy of regional management in the context of climate change. Rapid loss of sea ice and rising water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean threaten marine species survival. Beluga whales (<i>Delphinapterus leucas</i>), narwhals (<i>Monodon monoceros</i>), and bowhead whales (<i>Balaena mysticetus</i>) are endemic Arctic whales adapted to cold-water conditions that depend on sea ice for foraging and protection from predators. We forecasted the degree of genetic mismatch these species may experience under future climate change scenarios by the next century using Canadian Arctic genomic samples in genotype-environment association models. When examining local adaptation to different environmental variables, we found that ice thickness was the strongest environmental predictor for bowhead whales, while temperature and chlorophyll concentration, an indicator of primary productivity, carried greater weight for beluga whales and narwhals. Notably, a higher degree of genetic mismatch for all three species was observed in the Canadian High Arctic and Hudson Bay, suggesting that whales in these areas may exhibit the greatest maladaptive risk to climate change. This multispecies assessment of Arctic-adapted whales provides insight into the spatial congruence between three genomic datasets and context for designing ecosystem-wide evolutionarily enlightened conservation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"433-447"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Challenge of Genomic Forecasting in an Era of Global Change. 基因组预测在全球变化时代的挑战。
IF 2.7 2区 环境科学与生态学
American Naturalist Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1086/738891
Matthew C Fitzpatrick, Stephen R Keller, Katie E Lotterhos
{"title":"The Challenge of Genomic Forecasting in an Era of Global Change.","authors":"Matthew C Fitzpatrick, Stephen R Keller, Katie E Lotterhos","doi":"10.1086/738891","DOIUrl":"10.1086/738891","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>AbstractGenomic forecasting is an emerging area of predictive ecology and evolution that leverages high-throughput sequencing to incorporate information on genomic variation into quantitative predictions of biological responses to environmental change. A central and increasingly applied concept in this field is genomic offset, a measure of the mismatch between current genomic composition and that predicted in new environments. This special issue brings together six studies spanning theoretical and methodological development, empirical evaluation, time series analysis, and conservation applications aimed at advancing the potential of genomic offset and related forecasting approaches for predicting population responses to environmental change. Contributions explore how genomic offset relates to stabilizing selection, compare individual- versus population-level offset models, and evaluate predictions using common garden experiments, long-term forest inventories, genomic time series, and conservation-relevant taxa. Collectively, the articles underscore both the promise and the current limitations of genomic forecasting while emphasizing that model predictive performance is often context dependent and influenced by statistical method, loci choice, and fitness proxies. Future progress will require rigorous validation, theory and methods development, and broader taxonomic coverage to ensure that genomic forecasting can realize its potential for informing biodiversity management in a rapidly changing world.</p>","PeriodicalId":50800,"journal":{"name":"American Naturalist","volume":"207 3","pages":"347-355"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147277554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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