Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"The impact of phenological shifts on carbon uptake across major terrestrial biomes","authors":"Getachew Mehabie Mulualem,&nbsp;Jadunandan Dash","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00450-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00450-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Changes in climate are altering plant growth patterns and associated phenological events like the Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), and Length of the Growing Season (LGS). However, there is limited research quantifying the impact of these changes on key vegetation-atmospheric interaction processes such as the carbon and water cycles. This study uses 914 site years of data across 132 flux tower sites in the FLUXNET2015 dataset to explore the relationships between carbon sequestration, expressed by Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), and multiple phenological variables, including LGS, changes in SOS (ΔSOS), and changes in EOS (ΔEOS). LGS explains 23% of the variability in GPP across all sites. Significant correlations were found in deciduous broadleaf forests (R² = 0.5) and evergreen needleleaf forests (R² = 0.44), while ecosystems such as shrublands, savannas, and wetlands displayed weaker connections. Changes in the SOS also affected GPP, with an earlier SOS increasing the total annual GPP. Deciduous Broadleaf Forests (R² = 0.54), Evergreen Needleleaf Forests (R² = 0.5), Grasslands (R² = 0.47) showed a significant negative association between ΔSOS and ΔGPP, whereas Croplands showed weaker correlations. Conversely, EOS variations had little impact on GPP. Upscaled to global vegetated land area these relationships suggest that each additional day in the growing season could increase carbon uptake by 1.035 Gt C yr^− 1, while an earlier SOS by 0.93 Gt C yr^− 1 and a one-day delay in EOS by approximately 0.65 Gt C yr^− 1. These findings underscore the need to account for seasonal shifts and phenological changes in global carbon models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00450-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147831957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How factor digitalization shapes urban carbon TFP: mechanisms, thresholds, and spillovers in Chinese cities","authors":"Bao-jun Tang,&nbsp;Jun-yu Chen,&nbsp;Chang-Jing Ji","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00448-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00448-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Digitalization and decarbonization are reshaping urban production, yet the relationship between factor-level digitalization and cities’ carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) remains underexplored, particularly concerning its mechanisms, boundary conditions, and spatial reach. This study develops a Digitalization Index of Urban Elements (DIUE), encompassing labor, capital, and energy, to examine its association with CTFP in 213 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2023. CTFP is measured using an undesirable-output slacks-based measure, and the empirical analysis employs a two-step system GMM with Windmeijer correction, mediation analysis, spatial-lag models, and dynamic panel threshold tests. Robustness checks utilize an alternative productivity index and a difference-in-differences design based on early smart-city pilots. Three key findings emerge. First, factor-level digitalization is positively associated with urban CTFP; a one-standard-deviation increase in DIUE corresponds to a 1.5–1.7% increase in CTFP, which accumulates to approximately 4% in the long run. Second, this relationship is primarily mediated by green innovation, accounting for approximately 47% of the mediated effect, while industrial upgrading and agglomeration provide additional support, accounting for about 24% and 6%, respectively. Third, the benefits of digitalization exhibit both spatial spillovers and conditional effects: the indirect spillover effect constitutes roughly one-third of the direct effect, and positive gains are more pronounced in contexts with lower labor and capital misallocation and stronger local low-carbon commitment. By integrating a transparent and replicable measure of factor digitalization with evidence on its underlying mechanisms, spatial spillovers, and activation thresholds, this study clarifies the conditions under which digitalization can be effectively translated into enhanced carbon productivity. The policy implication is that cities should complement digital investment with measures to reduce factor misallocation, strengthen low-carbon commitment, and foster innovation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00448-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulation and control of regional construction land expansion incorporating carbon emissions","authors":"Zhiyuan Wang,&nbsp;Fan Wu,&nbsp;Zhengxuan Liu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00433-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00433-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a major contributor to carbon emissions among various land-use types, the expansion and spatial distribution of construction land are critical factors in regional carbon management strategies. Although considerable research has independently examined construction land growth control and regional carbon emission assessments, few studies have integrated these aspects to guide construction land expansion within the framework of carbon peaking strategies. This study proposes an innovative framework that integrates carbon emission considerations into the management of regional construction land expansion. Using Changsha City as a case study, this research analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of construction land expansion and associated carbon emissions from 1990 to 2020, exploring their interdependencies. To project future trends, three scenarios—natural growth, high-emission expansion, and low-emission development—were developed to simulate the impacts of construction land changes on carbon emissions by 2030. The study evaluates the carbon emission consequences of urban expansion and proposes mitigation strategies within a low-carbon development framework. The findings indicate that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, construction land in Changsha City expanded by 660.24 km², primarily encroaching upon adjacent cultivated and forested lands. During the same period, carbon emissions increased by 1.3963 × 10⁸ t, showing a strong positive correlation with construction land expansion; (2) By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to reach 2.396 × 10⁸ t, 2.582 × 10⁸ t, and 1.639 × 10⁸ t under the natural growth, high-emission, and low-emission scenarios, respectively, reflecting increases of 53.21%, 65.11%, and 4.81% relative to 2020 levels; (3) Under both the natural growth and high-emission scenarios, construction land expansion is likely to intensify its adverse impact on the regional ecosystem, thereby reducing ecological stability. In contrast, the low-emission development scenario is projected to promote significant improvements in ecosystem health and resilience. This study offers critical insights for territorial spatial planning and construction land management within the context of the dual-carbon strategy, presenting a viable pathway for reconciling land expansion with ecological sustainability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00433-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inter-provincial water-energy-carbon transfer and its efficiency in China: the perspective of land use","authors":"Chen Cai,&nbsp;Rongqin Zhao,&nbsp;Hanbing Li,&nbsp;Liangang Xiao,&nbsp;Zhixiang Xie,&nbsp;Wei Wu,&nbsp;Jiayu Ji,&nbsp;Qianhu Xiao","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00444-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00444-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Revealing inter-regional water-energy-carbon transfer driven by land use has great significance for realizing multiple objectives of resource collaborative optimization and carbon mitigation, yet land-use WEC accounting at the provincial scale and the efficiency of inter-regional WEC transfer driven by embodied land flow remain insufficiently explored in China. Accordingly, a theoretical framework for water-energy-carbon accounting and inter-regional transfer based on land use was established. Then the water and energy use and carbon emissions of cropland, forest land, grassland, water area, and construction land in 30 Chinese provinces were estimated and their spatial-temporal patterns were analyzed. The efficiency and spatial characteristics of inter-provincial water-energy-carbon transfer driven by embodied land flow were discussed.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The results showed that the land-use water consumption was relatively stable from 2005 to 2020, while land-use energy consumption and carbon emissions exhibited an increasing trend. Embodied land mainly flowed from underdeveloped areas to developed areas, and there was regional variability in the related water-energy-carbon transfer. The energy-carbon transfer patterns driven by embodied land flow were similar. Embodied land consumption was concentrated in cropland, forest land, and grassland. Water consumption driven by embodied land flow was primarily concentrated in cropland. Energy consumption and carbon emissions driven by embodied land flow were mainly concentrated in construction land. Generally, the embodied land flow-related water-energy-carbon transfer efficiency has improved, with the proportion of efficient transfer increasing by 2.03%, 2.08%, and 2.82%, respectively. Water transfer between different land use types was more efficient than energy-carbon transfer, and water-energy-carbon transfer associated with construction land was inefficient.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Water-energy-carbon transfer driven by embodied land flow could alleviate resource and environmental pressures, while its efficiency could still be enhanced. Therefore, in the future, land resource allocation should be optimized based on regional coordination and integrated water-energy-carbon management to enhance the efficiency of cross-regional water-energy-carbon transfer, thereby achieving efficient resource utilization and environmental sustainability. Overall, this study provides quantitative evidence for the resource and environmental impacts of cross-regional land resource allocation and offers new insights for synergistic resource optimization from a remote coupling perspective.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00444-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147809425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the network structure characteristics and driving factors of carbon-emission spillovers in the greater bay area of China: a coupled multi-scenario analytical framework","authors":"Zhigang Li,&nbsp;Jiapei Tan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00445-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00445-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a critical region for coordinated low-carbon development in China, yet the structure and drivers of intercity carbon-emission spillovers remain poorly understood, especially under alternative development pathways. In addition, the carbon consequences of land-use change have received little attention. To fill these gaps, this study develops a coupled multi-scenario analytical framework to examine the spillover structure and drivers of land-use carbon emissions (LUCE), using observational data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, together with 2030 simulations under natural development (NDS), economic development (EDS), and ecological protection (EPS) scenarios. The results show that the northeastern and southwestern GBA function as relatively stable carbon sinks, whereas the central corridor exhibits persistent emission growth. Intercity LUCE disparities are largest under EDS and shrink markedly under EPS. The LUCE network is highly connected, multilevel, and transmission-efficient, indicating a robust yet centralized spillover system. Shenzhen remains the dominant hub, and the increasing number of intermediary cities further strengthens intercity carbon flows. Driver analysis reveals that historical network linkages are significantly associated with differences in per capita GDP and geographic proximity. Under the 2030 scenarios, however, industrial structure upgrading becomes increasingly influential, highlighting a scenario-dependent shift in the key drivers of intercity spillovers. Overall, this study offers a transferable multi-scenario framework for analyzing regional LUCE spillovers and provides management-relevant evidence for coordinated mitigation, cross-jurisdictional carbon governance, and policy design in the GBA.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00445-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing low-carbon economies in the Persian Gulf: the role of clean energy, industry 4.0, and fintech","authors":"Zilian Li,&nbsp;Guixian Tian,&nbsp;Bakhtawer Ayub,&nbsp;Shagufta Tariq Khan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00435-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00435-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The international move towards a low-carbon economy is an immediate necessity especially to the Persian Gulf region that is confronted with the dual role of disengaging its economies out of the reliance on fossil fuel and expanding the energy needs. Although technological innovation may facilitate this change, the region experiences intense challenges of scaling green solutions. This paper examines how the three variables of clean energy, Industry 4.0, and FinTech contributed to the process of substituting the economy of high carbon with the low-carbon economy of the Persian Gulf through a panel dataset of 1990 to 2024. With the help of generalized method of moments (GMM) regression, we discover that clean energy, Industry 4.0 and FinTech are important factors of abatement, but the implementation of green technology has a paradox: it is currently negatively correlated with carbon reduction, which is explained by low levels of adoption that are not enough to obtain economies of scale. We conclude that to make a low-carbon future a reality, there is a need to go beyond technology acquisition to policy-based large-scale investment, and regional integration.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00435-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate warming effect of disposal fates of harvested wood products","authors":"Michael T. Ter-Mikaelian,&nbsp;Sabrina M. Desjardins,&nbsp;Jiaxin Chen","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00442-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00442-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The objective of this research was to understand how the long-term climate warming effect of harvested wood products (HWP) changed as the proportional distribution of disposed products across three primary pathways (incineration, recycling, and landfilling) varied while accounting for the possibility of multiple recycling steps. The climate warming effect is defined as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the disposal of carbon content in HWP, not including emissions from processing the disposed HWP and substitution effects. Emissions were estimated over 100 years from the year of the original HWP disposal. For solid HWP, the climate warming effect decreased, for any given recycling fraction, as the landfill fraction decreased. The opposite, however, occurred for paper HWP. Recycling reduced the climate warming effect of solid HWP by “pushing” some of the emissions outside of the assessment period. For paper HWP, recycling did not change the climate warming effect unless the assessment period was relatively short. These findings can be used to assess the effect of a given combination of disposal fates of HWP, including the final disposal of non-recyclable HWP, and indicate whether it exceeds the effect of instantaneously releasing the HWP carbon content as CO₂.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00442-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147759061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The contribution of planted forests to regional carbon storage: evidence from western Hunan, China (1990–2020)","authors":"Ting Deng,&nbsp;Yulin Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00443-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00443-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The widespread expansion of planted forests, fueled by initiatives such as China’s Grain-for-Green Program, plays a critical role in climate mitigation, yet its carbon performance compared to natural forests remains contested. Using​ spatiotemporal analysis, this study systematically ​examines​ the dynamics of planted and natural forests in the western region of Hunan from 1990 to 2020, and ​assesses​ their impacts on regional carbon storage. The results reveal a marked forest transition: while natural forests declined, planted forests expanded considerably, creating a distinct spatial trade-off—planted forests proliferated mainly at mid-low elevations (300–700 m), whereas natural forests were largely confined to higher elevations (400–900 m). Although natural forests stored more carbon overall (55.1% of the regional total), planted forests exhibited superior carbon sequestration rates per unit area.​​ Notably, newly established planted forests on converted land accumulated almost equivalent carbon stocks (19.0 Tg C) to older, stable natural forests (19.5 Tg C), highlighting their rapid carbon uptake potential. Spatiotemporal analysis confirmed that ​conversion of cropland was the dominant pathway, driving both the expansion of planted forests and the associated carbon gains. These findings ​quantify the net carbon gain from restoration policies​ and underscore that future land-use strategies must ​manage their spatial trade-off​ to secure long-term climate and ecological benefits.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.0,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00443-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147728036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accounting of provincial horizontal carbon eco-compensation standard under multiple participation scenarios","authors":"Junyu Chen,&nbsp;Ke Wang,&nbsp;Chuanming Yang,&nbsp;Huimin Wang,&nbsp;Yang Bai","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00432-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00432-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>As the world’s largest energy consumer and CO₂ emitter, China faces severe sustainable development challenges and intense international pressures. The pronounced spatial heterogeneity of CO₂ emissions and sinks creates a dynamic pattern of carbon-deficient and carbon-surplus regions. Horizontal carbon eco-compensation activates the market value of carbon sinks, redistributes sink-related benefits, and internalizes both positive and negative environmental externalities, thereby facilitating the valuation of carbon-sink ecosystem services. In this research, CO₂ emission space is treated as a tradable ecological product. Within a government-led, market-coordinated accounting framework, carbon-deficient regions provide ecological compensation to carbon-surplus regions, while the latter are compensated for environmental stewardship and opportunity expenses. The CO₂ emission quotas of each province are first determined by the entropy method, and a horizontal carbon ecological compensation recipient and payer identification framework is constructed. Next, the compensation standard accounting models under three scenarios of active participation, passive participation and refusal to participate are constructed respectively. Finally, the empirical analysis is carried out with 30 provinces in China as the object set. The results show that: (1) Regions with high CO₂ emissions are mostly economically developed, energy-intensive or densely populated areas, while the regions with high CO₂ sequestration often have the characteristics of complete ecological patterns, superior hydrothermal conditions or remarkable ecological restoration results. (2) Among the 30 provinces studied, 18 provinces show the characteristics of carbon surplus, which are mainly distributed in the south, central and western regions and parts of the north; the remaining 12 are carbon-deficient regions, concentrated in the eastern coastal and northern regions of China. (3) Under the framework of the provincial horizontal carbon eco-compensation mechanism, this research identifies three behavioral scenarios: active participation, passive participation and refusal to participate. It is found that active participation compensation is the optimal strategy, which provides a basis for the formulation of differentiated horizontal eco-compensation standards and implementation plans.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00432-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147669638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"UAV-based mangrove biomass estimation and carbon potential valuation in North Sumatra, Indonesia","authors":"Mohammad Basyuni,&nbsp;Ida Liana Tanjung,&nbsp;Bejo Slamet,&nbsp;Faujiah Nurhasanah Ritonga,&nbsp;Shofiyah Sabilah Al Mustaniroh,&nbsp;Siti Halimah Larekekng,&nbsp;Virni Budi Arifanti,&nbsp;Sigit Bayhu Iryanthony,&nbsp;Elham Sumarga,&nbsp;Shigeyuki Baba,&nbsp;Severino G. Salmo III,&nbsp;Edina Ginting,&nbsp;Novita Kusumawardani,&nbsp;Reiko Omoto","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00440-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00440-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mangrove forests are among the most carbon-dense coastal ecosystems, yet ongoing conversion to agriculture and oil palm plantations significantly reduces landscape-scale carbon storage and climate mitigation potential. This study quantified aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon stocks across six land-use types within Karang Gading and Langkat Timur Laut Wildlife Reserve, North Sumatra, Indonesia, covering 928.42 ha. High-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)–derived canopy height models were integrated with field-calibrated allometric equations, using basal area–weighted Lorey’s height to improve biomass estimation in structurally heterogeneous stands. Bias correction was applied to log-transformed models to minimize systematic error. Mean AGB ranged from 0.97 Mg ha⁻¹ in oil palm plantations to 278.54 Mg ha⁻¹ in natural mangroves. Corresponding aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks ranged from 0.46 to 130.92 Mg C ha⁻¹. Natural mangroves (92.82 ha) stored 12,151.99 Mg C (44,597.11 Mg CO₂e), while community forests (98 ha) stored 10,541.86 Mg C. In contrast, mixed agriculture and oil palm systems together contributed less than 2% of total landscape-level aboveground carbon. Under a conservative avoided deforestation scenario, total CO₂-equivalent stocks correspond to an indicative economic value of approximately USD 0.63–6.35 million at voluntary carbon market prices of USD 5–50 Mg CO₂e⁻¹. Although these values represent biophysical carbon stocks rather than verified emission reductions, the integration of UAV-derived structural metrics with field validation provides a robust and scalable framework for spatially explicit carbon accounting. These findings strengthen the empirical basis for evaluating land-use impacts on coastal carbon balance and support mitigation-oriented conservation and restoration planning in tropical mangrove landscapes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00440-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147661936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}