Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

{"title":"The social cost of carbon in regions and industries from ESG perspective - a case study of eight economic regions in China","authors":"Zihao Tian,&nbsp;Lixin Tian,&nbsp;Yixiang Zhao","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00404-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00404-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a core metric for climate policy, the scientific estimation of carbon social costs is crucial for formulating mitigation strategies. However, traditional integrated assessment models predominantly focus on the global aggregate, failing to adequately account for regional heterogeneity, sectoral characteristics, and strategic interactions between regions. They also lack systematic integration of ESG principles. To address this, this paper examines regional and sectoral carbon social costs driven by ESG development. Through cooperative and non-cooperative games, we improve the integrated economic-environmental-climate development model, take the eight economic regions in China as an example, get the carbon social cost of each economic region and typical important industries, and obtain the key parameters and the evolution law of carbon social cost. The model categorizes the carbon emissions after the implementation of emission reduction policies under the ESG perspective into direct and indirect emissions. It studies the economic impacts of the two types of emissions before and after the implementation of emission reduction policies, and conducts research on the top four typical important industries (industry, construction, transportation, and power) that rank among the top four global CO₂ emitters, to obtain the analytical solution of the social cost of carbon in the region and the typical important industries. In addition, this paper numerically simulates the social cost of carbon for the four industries under the baseline scenario, cooperative game scenario, non-cooperative game scenario, and temperature limitation scenario. The study shows that the social cost of carbon in the northern, southern and eastern coastal economic regions is higher than that in other economic regions, the social cost of carbon in the industrial and electric power industries in each economic region is higher than that in the building and transportation industries, and the more stringent the temperature limit is, the higher the social cost of carbon is in the economic regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00404-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146130600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differentiated carbon reduction effects of clean heating policies: evidence from pilot projects in Northern China","authors":"Hongjie Ji,&nbsp;Handi Yang,&nbsp;Jintao Lu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00405-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00405-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a far-reaching initiative in China’s air pollution control and energy transition efforts, the clean heating policy has sparked considerable debate in both academia and practice regarding its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. This study uses panel data from 15 prefecture-level cities in northern China from 2013 to 2023 and constructs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of the clean heating policy on regional carbon emissions. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The policy effectively promotes the reduction of regional unit GDP and per capita carbon emission intensity in Northern China, but it has no evident effect on regional total carbon emissions. (2) The policy can exert the multiplier effect of the central government funds and structural effect to facilitate regional low-carbon transformation, but no significant Porter effect has been observed. (3) The carbon reduction effects exhibit significant regional heterogeneity. The policy has a more significant effect on carbon emissions of nonprovincial capital cities, coal-resource cities, and regions without coal power output, but it may significantly increase emissions in coal power-exporting regions. The clean heating policy should continue to be vigorously implemented, but its implementation strategy should be optimized by strengthening the transmission mechanism and addressing regional differences.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00405-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146130662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Remote sensing analysis of forest fire impacts on ecosystem productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and fire risk in Pakistan","authors":"Fahad Shahzad,&nbsp;Kaleem Mehmood,&nbsp;Shoaib Ahmad Anees,&nbsp;Muhammad Adnan,&nbsp;Ijlal Haidar,&nbsp;Umarbek Jabbarov,&nbsp;Murodjon Yaxshimuratov,&nbsp;Manuela Oliveira","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00410-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00410-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the spatial variability of forest fire intensity, burn indices, ecosystem productivity, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Pakistan from 2001 to 2023. Using satellite-derived burn indices such as SAVI, LST, NMDI, LSWI, NBR, and MSAVI2, the study examines the relationship between forest fires and net primary productivity (NPP) across diverse ecological regions. The analysis reveals that northern Pakistan, particularly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, experiences high fire intensity, resulting in significant reductions in NPP and increased emissions of COx, NOx, and CH₄. Central and southern Pakistan, including the arid regions of Balochistan and Sindh, exhibit lower fire intensity but remain vulnerable due to climate-driven dry conditions. The study also applies the ΔNPP/ΔBurn approach to evaluate how changes in burn indices correspond to shifts in NPP, revealing that small increases in fire intensity can lead to substantial ecosystem productivity loss. Additionally, a comparative analysis of Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost machine learning models for fire prediction found RF to be the more accurate model, achieving 88.0% accuracy and a 93.8% AUC score. These findings underscore the importance of developing region-specific fire management strategies to mitigate the ecological and environmental impacts of wildfires. The study highlights the critical need for improved fire prediction, early warning systems, and long-term monitoring of post-fire ecosystem recovery. By drawing comparisons with global research, this study contributes to understanding the broader implications of forest fires on carbon dynamics and ecosystem productivity, providing valuable insights for future fire management policies in Pakistan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12973728/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146130692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shaping consumer behavior with artificial intelligence and brand elements","authors":"Barış Armutcu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00406-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00406-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study is one of the few contextual and integrative empirical studies examining how artificial intelligence marketing efforts (AI MEs) can shape consumers’ green purchasing behavior (GPB), particularly among Generation Z consumers in developing countries, and thus contribute to green consumption and brand element relationships. This study investigates the direct and mediating effects of both AI MEs (information, customisation, interaction, and accessibility) and brand elements (brand preference, brand experience, and brand trust) on consumers’ GPBs based on the SOR model. An analysis based on surveys (<i>n</i> = 609; SEM-ANN) revealed that AI MEs significantly affected brand elements and GPB, and that brand experience and brand preference were significant mediators in the relationship between AI MEs and GPB. The study also found a significant relationship between brand elements and GPB in the present study. The ANN analysis showed that the most important variables in explaining GPB were brand preference, AI MEs, and brand experience. By integrating AI marketing and brand elements into the conceptualisation of GPB, this study contextually enriches and integrates the limited body of knowledge on sustainable consumer behaviour. The findings offer new theoretical insights and practical guidance for policymakers and businesses aiming to leverage AI to promote environmentally responsible consumption.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00406-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146123358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A global comparative study of low-carbon domestic transportation transition","authors":"Lichao Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00355-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00355-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The transportation sector, as a significant contributor to global CO₂ emissions, demands urgent attention to align its decarbonization with national carbon neutrality agendas. Existing research disproportionately focuses on quantifying TCE (transportation CO₂ emissions) and mapping their spatio-temporal distributions. However, the evolutionary trajectories and sequential peaking dynamics of TCE across different national contexts remain unclear. To address this question, this study was conducted.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>A global comparative analysis of 115 countries was conducted, establishing a four-stage TCE development typology through three metrics: TCE intensity (A), per capita TCE (B), and total TCE (C). The analysis revealed a universal A → B → C peaking sequence, with Stage II (A to B transition) exhibiting a significantly prolonged duration (mean = 8.37 years) compared to Stage III (B to C transition; mean = 2.12 years). Developed economies predominantly occupy Stage IV, while developing countries cluster in Stage II and Stage III. Regionally, North American countries demonstrated extended durations in both stages, exceeding global averages. Regression analysis indicated that socioeconomic indicators have limited explanatory power in predicting stage durations, underscoring the individualized nature of TCE progression across nations.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This study contributes by revealing the unified and diverse peak patterns of three core TCE indicators at national levels, while addressing a critical gap in global emission reduction strategies through cross-economy analysis. The findings confirm a predictable evolution in TCE across most nations but highlight significant variations between developed and developing economies. The prolonged duration of Stage II compared to Stage III suggests a more challenging transition phase for many countries. Moreover, the limited influence of standard socioeconomic metrics on stage durations emphasizes the need for nuanced, country-specific approaches to emissions transitions. The study proposes targeted TCE reduction measures differentiated by development stage and transportation sub-sector, providing scientific guidance for policy formulations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00355-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146117402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emissions and leachate profile of MSW disposal sites of metropolitan cities of Pakistan using LandGEM model","authors":"Bibi Ilmas,&nbsp;Sofia Khalid,&nbsp;M. Ijaz,&nbsp;Imtiaz Hussain","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00403-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00403-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rapid increase in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation across urban centers in Pakistan, combined with insufficient waste management infrastructure, presents a significant environmental and public health challenge. This study assesses methane emissions and leachate generation from major MSW dumpsites in Rawalpindi and Lahore, two of Punjab province’s largest cities. Emissions were estimated and projected over a 50-year active timespan using the U.S. EPA LandGEM model following IPCC 2006 guidelines. Cumulative emissions from Lahore’s solid waste disposal (SWD) systems were calculated at approximately 133,446 Gg, equivalent to 108 Mt CO₂-eq, with contributions comprising 26% methane, 73% carbon dioxide (CO₂), and 0.2% non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs). In contrast, Rawalpindi’s SWD systems generated 958 Gg (or 7.8 Mt CO₂-eq) over their operational life, exhibiting a similar emissions profile. Two unmanaged Lahore sites—LD2 (1643 Gg CH₄) and MB1 (1383.9 Gg CH₄)—emerged as the most significant methane emitters across both cities. These results underscore the urgent need for targeted waste management strategies, particularly the deployment of methane capture technologies and effective leachate treatment systems. The study highlights the substantial greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater contamination risks posed by unmanaged landfills. To mitigate these impacts and align with national climate goals, the adoption of site-specific policies and sustainable waste-to-energy solutions is imperative.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00403-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146111647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the measurement and driving mechanisms for coordinated development level of digital economy and low-carbon economy: evidence from China","authors":"Deliang Zhou,&nbsp;Yuhan Song","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00409-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00409-5","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The progress of the digital economy and low-carbon economy (hereinafter “both economies”) in China currently shows a digitalization trend and decarbonization urgency, and their intrinsic connections are becoming increasingly evident. Study on coordination of both economies is of crucial importance for China. In this study, an index system was constructed to measure the development level of both economies, and the entropy method was employed to calculate the index based on the data panel of China’s 282 prefecture-level cities during 2012–2021. Then, the coordinated development level of both economies (CDL) was assessed by the coupling coordination degree model. In addition, we conduct a sensitivity test on the weight setting of the composite index in the coupling coordination degree model to verify the robustness of CDL measurement to alternative weight specifications. Results indicate that CDL has steadily improved annually and is generally in the basic coordination stage. Cities in the basic maladjustment stage and the basic coordination stage still show considerable room for further improvement. The CDL across China’s four regions exhibits a pattern of “Eastern &gt; Northeastern &gt; Central &gt; Western”. Next, the regional differences of CDL were decomposed by the Dagum Gini coefficient, revealing a decreasing trend in overall differences. Within-regional differences is the primary source of regional differences. More specifically, within-regional disparities rank from high to low as Western, Eastern, Northeastern, and Central; and the between-regional disparities, from high to low, are Western–Northeastern, Eastern–Western, Central–Western, Eastern–Central, Eastern–Northeastern, and Central–Northeastern. Accordingly, further empirical analysis using the spatial Durbin model identified several driving mechanisms for CDL. In the spatial econometric setting, we further perform robustness checks with alternative spatial weight matrices, including a geographic adjacency matrix, an economic distance matrix, and a gravity-model nested matrix, and we also report the decomposition of spatial effects. Moreover, we introduce a one-period lag of the dependent variable to estimate a dynamic spatial Durbin model, capturing path dependence in CDL and testing the robustness of the conclusions. Results demonstrate that government guidance, market regulation, technological innovation, and structural optimization mechanisms all promote CDL significantly, while the openness mechanism has a significant inhibiting effect. The direct effects are consistent with the above results, while the indirect effects indicate positive spatial spillovers from government guidance and market regulation, and a significant negative spatial spillover from openness; these findings remain broadly stable after replacing spatial weight matrices and after introducing the dynamic term, suggesting strong robustness in identifying the driving mechanis","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00409-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146111795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic influence of financial structure, green innovation, urbanization, and trade on consumption-based CO2 emissions in Asian countries","authors":"Ilma Sharif,&nbsp;Faisal Sultan Qadri,&nbsp;Magdalena Radulescu,&nbsp;Bilal Hussain,&nbsp;Shahzad Mushtaq","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00395-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00395-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The world economies have environmental sustainability as one of their main concerns. Although numerous studies have been conducted to determine the factors contributing to ecological problems, little has been done to determine the consumption-based CO₂ emission as a sign. The current research focuses on analyzing the factors that define consumption-based CO₂ emissions based on financial growth, innovation of green technology, urbanization and trade openness of Asian nations between 1991 and 2020. We employed CS-ARDL to address the cross-section dependency and heterogeneous slopes in a panel estimation. The outcomes indicate that the overall trend of financial development is that of the rise of carbon emissions, but the application of green technology considerably decreases it. Furthermore, the relationship between the financial development and green innovation assists in neutralizing some of the environmental effects of financial growth. Urbanization and openness to trade, on the other hand, have minimal effect on the CO₂ emissions. The Granger causality tests also point towards the interrelationships between financial structure, industrial activity, green technology and emissions dynamics. The general conclusions imply that the government comes up with effective financial policies that offer financial incentives in encouraging green innovation to mitigate carbon emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00395-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146103445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on the impact of green bond issuance on the green and low carbon development of Chinese thermal power enterprises","authors":"Mengqi Gong,&nbsp;Gege He,&nbsp;Yizi Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00396-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00396-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Thermal power generation is a sector of critical importance in global energy consumption, yet it also stands as a major source of environmental pollution. Against the backdrop of China’s diminishing resource and environmental carrying capacity and escalating global climate change, this study examines the impact of green bond issuance on the green and low-carbon development of thermal power enterprises, along with its underlying transmission mechanisms. Employing methodologies such as difference-in-differences (DID) and mediation effect analysis, we analyze data from A-share listed thermal power companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges spanning 2007 to 2021. Furthermore, we investigate the heterogeneous effects of green bonds on enterprises of varying scales and across different regions.The results demonstrate that green bond issuance significantly promotes the green and low-carbon development of thermal power enterprises, both directly and indirectly—a finding robust to a series of sensitivity tests. Moreover, the effects vary considerably depending on firm size and geographic location. This study provides valuable insights into the economic implications of green bonds in China and offers policy guidance for the green transformation of the thermal power industry.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00396-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146103506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon imbalance in agricultural cultivation and its driving factors: a study based on Hunan Province, China","authors":"Chenxi Dou,&nbsp;Xianzhao Liu,&nbsp;Jiaxi Liu,&nbsp;Yue Xing,&nbsp;Hai Xiao,&nbsp;Sixiang Quan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-026-00413-9","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-026-00413-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Against the backdrop of global warming, the imbalance in agricultural carbon budgets poses a dual threat to ecological security and food security. As a major grain-producing region in China, Hunan Province is confronted with substantial CH₄ emissions derived from rice cultivation, a problem further exacerbated by industrialization, urbanization, and shifts in farming practices. Consequently, investigating the carbon imbalance in Hunan’s agricultural cultivation is of great significance for advancing the sustainable development of agriculture in the province. This study constructs and quantifies the agricultural carbon imbalance index (CII), and employs exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis, the PLS-VIP method, and the GTWR model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of agricultural cultivation carbon imbalance of Hunan Province in China from 2001 to 2022.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>(1) The CII for agricultural cultivation in Hunan Province decreased from 0.41 in 2001 to 0.26 in 2022. Its spatiotemporal pattern shifted from “high in the north and low in the south” to “high in the west and low in the east,” with the gravity center of CII moving southwestward. (2) Over the study period, the spatial correlation characteristics of CII underwent three stages: significant positive correlation, random distribution, and weak positive correlation. LISA time path and spatiotemporal transition analyses showed that the spatiotemporal clustering pattern of CII remained relatively stable from 2001 to 2011; however, its stability weakened slightly from 2012 to 2022. (3) Key factors influencing the agricultural cultivation CII in Hunan Province include GPA, GST, IARDF, PAOV, FUI, and PUI. These factors exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in their effects. For example, the FUI and PUI had significant impacts on CII in the Xiangbei region, whereas their influence was relatively weaker in the Xiangxi region.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>To alleviate the persistent carbon imbalance in Hunan’s agricultural cultivation systems, differentiated carbon sequestration and emission reduction strategies should be formulated by integrating the significance hierarchy of CII drivers and their spatial heterogeneity patterns. Special emphasis ought to be placed on tackling the re-emergence of carbon imbalance in specific municipal regions, which stems from urban expansion encroaching on farmland and the persistence of traditional cultivation practices. This targeted optimization will effectively facilitate the sustainable and low-carbon development of Hunan’s agricultural sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s13021-026-00413-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146099732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}