Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans最新文献

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Sea surface temperature and marine heatwave variability in interconnected basins: The Black-Marmara-Aegean Seas 海表温度和海洋热浪变化在相互联系的盆地:黑-马尔马拉-爱琴海
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555
Şehriban Saçu , Olgay Şen , Tarkan Erdik , İzzet Öztürk
{"title":"Sea surface temperature and marine heatwave variability in interconnected basins: The Black-Marmara-Aegean Seas","authors":"Şehriban Saçu ,&nbsp;Olgay Şen ,&nbsp;Tarkan Erdik ,&nbsp;İzzet Öztürk","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea surface temperature (SST) is a crucial parameter affecting marine ecosystems and has risen dramatically in recent decades due to climate change. This warming has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwave (MHW) events, prolonged periods of extreme SSTs, which have severe ecological consequences. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of SST and MHW characteristics across the interconnected Black, Marmara, and Aegean Seas using satellite-derived daily SST data from 1982 to 2021. Our findings indicate a significant SST increase across all three basins, with the most pronounced warming observed in the Black Sea, followed by the Marmara Sea. SST trends reach 0.8 °C/decade in the eastern Black Sea and 0.3 °C/decade in the Aegean Sea. Since the 2000s, SST warming has accelerated, with the long-term spatial mean trend of 0.57 °C/decade increasing to 0.68 °C/decade. This warming trend has driven a sharp increase in MHW frequency and duration, particularly in the last decade. The highest trend in MHW frequency is observed in the Marmara Sea, with an increase of 1.56 events/decade which further intensified after the 2000s. Beyond long-term trends, MHWs exhibit interannual variability, which correlates with the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) climate indices. Given the rising frequency and duration of MHW events, we also examined mucilage outbreaks in the Marmara Sea during 2007 and 2021. Our analysis suggests that mucilage blooms correspond to years with intense and prolonged MHW events, highlighting MHWs as a potential driver of mucilage formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101555"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Formation mechanism of overshooting convection in the southwest vortex circulation under the influence of mesoscale gravity wave 中尺度重力波影响下西南涡旋环流中过冲对流的形成机制
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101559
Yizhou Xu , Guoping Li , Xiaoyu Zhang , Yuanchang Dong , Xin Xie
{"title":"Formation mechanism of overshooting convection in the southwest vortex circulation under the influence of mesoscale gravity wave","authors":"Yizhou Xu ,&nbsp;Guoping Li ,&nbsp;Xiaoyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuanchang Dong ,&nbsp;Xin Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using ERA5 reanalysis data, GPM satellite precipitation products, and radar mosaic combination reflectivity (RMCR) data, the formation mechanism of overshooting convection (OC) in the southwest vortex (SWV) circulation under the influence of mesoscale gravity wave (MGW) on 18 Jul 2022 was analyzed on synoptic dynamics to deepen the understanding of the correlation characteristics between the SWV and the MGW, and then to explore the formation mechanism of OC in the Sichuan Basin (SCB). Results showed that the undulating terrain and stable atmospheric stratification generated the MGW. The adjustment of the SWV circulation caused the strong water vapor flux convergence at 850 hPa in the early stage of OC. The change of divergence field caused by MGW promoted the eastward development of the updraft in the SWV circulation, and the SWV center tilted to the southeast. The ascending center separated by the SWV merged horizontally with the updraft phase of MGW, and the merged ascending airflow connected vertically to the ascending center in the upper troposphere. The water vapor convergence and heating center in the upper troposphere and the horizontal wind momentum transporting upward led to OC. The strengthening of the negative vertical vorticity phase of MGW and the movement of dry cold air mass led to the northwestward propagation of negative vertical vorticity, thus forming the difference in the vertical distribution of vertical vorticity, which was negative in the upper and positive in the lower. The stable updraft phase of the MGW and the dry cold air mass propagation cooled the lower atmosphere and increased the convective available potential energy (CAPE). The adjustment of the internal circulation of the SWV extended the range of convective instability from the ground to 600 hPa, which was also conducive to the formation of OC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101559"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144068184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting ionospheric VTEC in the Indian equatorial and low-latitude region amid geomagnetic storms using the VECM model 利用VECM模式预测地磁风暴期间印度赤道和低纬度地区电离层VTEC
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101541
Sumitra Padmanabhan , Daivik Padmanabhan , Yogesh Jadhav , Harsh Taneja
{"title":"Forecasting ionospheric VTEC in the Indian equatorial and low-latitude region amid geomagnetic storms using the VECM model","authors":"Sumitra Padmanabhan ,&nbsp;Daivik Padmanabhan ,&nbsp;Yogesh Jadhav ,&nbsp;Harsh Taneja","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geomagnetic storms are one of the major causes of irregular variations in the ionosphere. The effect of a geomagnetic storm on Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) variation, especially in the equatorial regions, is very complex and uncertain due to the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA). Thus, the VTEC exhibits large and complex spatio-temporal variations in the equatorial region. A deeper study of the relationship between the past values of geomagnetic storm variables and the present value of VTEC, and vice versa can help better understand the dynamics of the variables and processes’ long-term equilibrium between the variables. Causal dependence between the variables has been found helpful in determining the temporal dependencies in econometrics where parameters are uncertain, and variability patterns are complex. In this study, causality was used for investigating the impact of the highly complex geomagnetic processes on VTEC. Causality between the geomagnetic indices and deviation in VTEC was investigated to understand the interconnection between the dynamical variables, the nonlinear correlations between them, and the underlying physical processes to predict the deviation in VTEC. Based on causality, a Vector Error-Correction (VECM) forecast model was developed for a two-step ahead forecast of VTEC on geomagnetic storm days. The forecast results were compared with the actual values of GPS VTEC and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. Two metrics, namely RMSE and the correlation coefficient, were used to test the performance. The forecasted values were compared with the actual values, and the RMSE and correlation coefficients were calculated. The model’s performance was also compared with the reference model IRI 2016. For most of the days, the model could predict with low RMSE for two-step-ahead prediction (1 h).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101541"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future projections of climate variables and meteorological drought: Insight from CMIP6 models in Southeast Ethiopia 气候变量与气象干旱的未来预估:来自埃塞俄比亚东南部CMIP6模式的洞察
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101538
Amanuel Tsegaye Tadase , Andinet Kebede Tekile
{"title":"Future projections of climate variables and meteorological drought: Insight from CMIP6 models in Southeast Ethiopia","authors":"Amanuel Tsegaye Tadase ,&nbsp;Andinet Kebede Tekile","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has profound effects on precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought patterns. This study addressed the knowledge gap regarding the future impacts of climate change on these variables in the Arsi Zone, Southeast Ethiopia. By utilizing data simulation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase six (CMIP6) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), future climatic conditions were projected. The quantile mapping (QM) bias correction technique was implemented in R to improve reliability. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall method and the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) were employed for the climate variables trend analysis and to estimate drought characteristics, respectively. The findings of this study indicated an increasing trend in future precipitation and maximum temperature across both socioeconomic pathway scenarios from 2020 to 2100, with a more pronounced increase under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The drought duration, severity, and intensity were also projected to increase from 1985–2014–2020–2049 under both scenarios. The intensity increased by 0.26 and 0.15 under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively; however, these values exhibited different trends in the two scenarios from 2020 to 2049–2080–2100. The SSP2–4.5 scenario suggested more frequent drought events, requiring specific strategies for water resource management. However, the SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibited variability in drought projections. As conclusion, there is a need for specific strategies to address the more frequent drought events projected under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, whereas the SSP5–8.5 scenario requires adaptable strategies due to the variable frequencies and it underlines the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101538"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143350865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving significant wave height prediction via temporal data imputation 基于时间数据的有效波高预测改进
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101549
Jia Si , Jie Wang , Yingjun Deng
{"title":"Improving significant wave height prediction via temporal data imputation","authors":"Jia Si ,&nbsp;Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Yingjun Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of significant wave height (SWH) is crucial for a wide range of marine and coastal applications. However, achieving an accurate data-driven prediction of SWH requires effective multivariate time series modeling. Furthermore, missing values appear frequently in the raw data and influence the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we propose a novel diffusion-based approach for continuous-time modeling and temporal imputation of multivariate time series. By learning the temporal correlations and interdependencies among variables in the buoy’s data, the imputation of missing data is conducted to enhance the SWH prediction. Experiments are performed using buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center of USA to validate the effectiveness of temporal imputation and the use of multivariate data. The experimental results, compared with baseline methods and univariate predictions, highlight the advantage of Conditional Score-Based Diffusion Models (CSDI) in capturing temporal correlations and its effectiveness in improving short-term predictions of SWH. CSDI improves imputation by 7%–30% over existing imputation methods on popular performance metrics. Compared to univariate data, the better SWH prediction results on multivariate data confirm that temporal data imputation is beneficial for prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101549"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021 1949-2021年源自南海的热带气旋的趋势和驱动因素
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546
Zhi Li , Zecheng Xu , Yue Fang
{"title":"Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021","authors":"Zhi Li ,&nbsp;Zecheng Xu ,&nbsp;Yue Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme meteorological phenomena, characterized by intense winds and torrential rainfall, which pose severe risks to coastal inhabitants and infrastructure. In the South China Sea (SCS), TCs predominantly form during the main season from May to October. A comprehensive analysis of TC genesis within the SCS during May–September from 1949 to 2021 reveals a significant upward trend in TC frequency. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving this trend, we conducted diagnostic analyses of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and examined variations in relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (SH). Our results demonstrate that anomalously elevated mid-level RH is the primary driver of the increasing frequency of locally generated SCS TCs, with this rise in RH attributed to changes in SH primarily influenced by vertical advection processes. These advection processes are largely facilitated by Ekman pumping, driven by the warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the SCS. This study establishes a robust linkage between the increasing TC frequency and the warming SST trend in the SCS, underscoring the profound influence of regional climate change on TC activity in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101546"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal and topographical dynamics of precipitable water vapor in Nepal: A GNSS-based assessment 尼泊尔可降水量的季节和地形动态:基于gnss的评估
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101548
Srijan Thapa , Riya Pokhrel , Bigyan Banjara , Bhijan Nyaupane , Aadarsha Dhakal
{"title":"Seasonal and topographical dynamics of precipitable water vapor in Nepal: A GNSS-based assessment","authors":"Srijan Thapa ,&nbsp;Riya Pokhrel ,&nbsp;Bigyan Banjara ,&nbsp;Bhijan Nyaupane ,&nbsp;Aadarsha Dhakal","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitable water vapor (PWV), a key indicator of atmospheric moisture, plays a vital role in weather forecasting, climate studies, and understanding atmospheric thermodynamics. This study utilizes ground-based GNSS technology to estimate PWV and Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) across three distinct topographical regions of Nepal: Terai, Hilly, and Himalayan, over four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The analysis reveals that the Terai region, characterized by lower elevations, consistently exhibits higher PWV and ZTD values compared to the high-altitude Himalayan region, with the Hilly region showing intermediate levels. Seasonal variations indicate the highest PWV and ZTD during the summer and the lowest during winter, reflecting the influence of monsoonal moisture. Diurnal variability analysis further shows significant fluctuations in PWV, with a minimum in the early morning (21:45–00:45 UTC) and at night (17:15–18:15 UTC) and a maximum during the warmest part of the day (6:15–9:15 UTC). These findings underscore the effectiveness of GNSS technology in monitoring atmospheric water vapor and highlight the significant impact of topography and seasonal cycles on PWV distribution in Nepal. Such research and insights are crucial for improving weather forecasting, advancing climate change research, and enhancing atmospheric monitoring in regions with diverse topographical features.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101548"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143767890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing coastal wind simulation in the WRF model: Updates in sea surface temperature and roughness length through dynamic boundary conditions 加强WRF模式的海岸风模拟:通过动态边界条件更新海面温度和粗糙度长度
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101542
Chunlei Wu , Nina Wang , Yan Zhao , Xue Dong , Wei Huang
{"title":"Enhancing coastal wind simulation in the WRF model: Updates in sea surface temperature and roughness length through dynamic boundary conditions","authors":"Chunlei Wu ,&nbsp;Nina Wang ,&nbsp;Yan Zhao ,&nbsp;Xue Dong ,&nbsp;Wei Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a dynamic lateral boundary condition for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by integrating updates to sea surface temperature (SST) and roughness length (Z₀). By incorporating an ocean model and roughness schemes, time-varying SST and Z₀ were employed to enhance wind simulations over coastal areas. The results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of wind speed and direction simulations, with consistent error reduction across observations. Statistical metrics, including correlation coefficients, mean bias, and root mean square error, highlight these improvements and underscore the need for continuous refinement of boundary conditions to ensure reliable meteorological forecasts. The impact of SST and Z₀ updates is particularly notable under stable atmospheric stratification, where they reduce wind speeds near the sea surface and exhibit spatial and temporal variability, with coastal regions responding more strongly than offshore areas. Additionally, the concurrent application of Z₀ updates mitigates anomalies that might arise from SST updates alone, emphasizing the importance of integrating both parameters for balanced and robust simulations. Overall, this work provides critical insights into the role of boundary condition updates in advancing offshore wind simulations, contributing to more informed decision-making and improved efficiency in wind energy generation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101542"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143465548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the connection between large-scale climate indices and rainfall variability in Iraq 伊拉克大尺度气候指数与降雨变率的关系
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101540
Sherien Fadhel , Dawei Han
{"title":"On the connection between large-scale climate indices and rainfall variability in Iraq","authors":"Sherien Fadhel ,&nbsp;Dawei Han","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the teleconnection between climate indices and rainfall variability in Iraq to identify the factors influencing rainfall variability. The correlation between seven climate indices and rainfall variability across eight Iraqi cities was analyzed for the period 1951–2020, with a focus on January, the month with the highest amount of rainfall for most cities in the country. Bivariate wavelet coherence (WTC) and improved partial wavelet coherence (IPWC) methods were adopted for the analysis, and the significance of the correlations was quantified by the percentage of significant coherence (PoSC). The study aimed to determine whether specific climate indices have major connection with rainfall variability in Iraq, and whether this connection is identified through integration with other indices (i.e. using WTC), or by removing the mutual dependence of these climate indices (i.e. using IPWC). Results indicated that IPWC generally yielded a higher PoSC than WTC. The highest PoSC for the IPWC was achieved not by eliminating all climate indices but by selectively removing certain indices while retaining others. For instance, each of the three indices (PDO, AMO, DMI) produced the highest PoSC by removing four climate indices and keeping both the SOI and the NAO. In addition, the correlation between the reconstructed rainfall and the seven climate indices on different frequency bands explains and confirms the results of deleting some indices and keeping others to gain the greatest revelation on rainfall variability since no single dominant index can fully explain such rainfall variation. In addition, the combined NAO &amp; SOI indices found to be the main connection with rainfall variability over Iraq, especially when this combination is linked to any SST indices. However, the second driver of rainfall variability over Iraq was revealed by the combined WeMO &amp; SOI indices when they are linked to any climate indices. The above findings were found to be helpful and improved the accuracy of rainfall prediction. This study on searching for the drivers that affect the rainfall variation through multiple Large-Scale Climate Oscillation (LSCO) indices is the first in Iraq, and it has importance for other studies such as rainfall prediction, flooding analysis, and flooding mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101540"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143388418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Characteristics and potential drivers of extreme high-temperature event frequency in Eurasia 欧亚大陆极端高温事件频率特征及其潜在驱动因素
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101536
Xiangqin Xie , Run Liu , Ruyuan Xiao , Sijia Hu , Caixian Huang , Yongze Bi , Yifan Xu
{"title":"Characteristics and potential drivers of extreme high-temperature event frequency in Eurasia","authors":"Xiangqin Xie ,&nbsp;Run Liu ,&nbsp;Ruyuan Xiao ,&nbsp;Sijia Hu ,&nbsp;Caixian Huang ,&nbsp;Yongze Bi ,&nbsp;Yifan Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates decadal variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events (EHEs) during the summer months of July and August across the Northern Hemisphere from 1979 to 2023. Research results indicate that the frequency and intensity of EHEs on the Eurasian continent have increased more rapidly than in other Northern Hemisphere landmasses over time. By applying Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, two dominant modes of EHEs were identified: a spatial consistency pattern and a quadrupole anomaly pattern. The spatial consistency pattern shows significant anomalies centered around the Caspian Sea and East Asia, with a notable upward trend in intensity. This pattern is strongly associated with atmospheric warming and increased sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, which amplifies the North Atlantic-Eurasian wave train. The eastward propagation of wave activity flux, driven by the shifting positive geopotential height anomaly, further enhances the frequency and intensity of EHEs. The quadrupole anomaly pattern is characterized by four centers located in the mid-latitude region (30°N-50°N, 25°E-150°E), West Asia-South Asia-Southeast Asia, Central Europe-Northern Europe, and East Asia-Eastern West Asia. The EHEs in these regions exhibit anti-phase characteristics, meaning that while one region experiences higher-than-average frequency of EHEs, others simultaneously show lower-than-average frequency of EHEs. The formation of this quadrupole anomaly pattern is closely associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). NAO influences regional temperatures by modulating the jet stream and geopotential height, forming anticyclones or cyclones that, in turn, increase or decrease EHEs. Under NAO influence, a double jet state is formed, and a blocking anticyclone emerges in the weak wind zone between the two zonal wind maxima, thus increasing the EHEs in local areas. This study underscores the importance of understanding these distinct patterns and their underlying mechanisms to better predict and manage the regional impacts of extreme heat in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50563,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans","volume":"110 ","pages":"Article 101536"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143177317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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