Investigating the possibilities of temperature concentration distribution in Zayanderood based on climate change

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi , Rasoul Mirabbasi , Aliheidar Nasrolahi
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Abstract

In this study, temperature changes and its concentration distribution in the period of 1984–2015 and 2015–2100 were investigated under CanESM5 climate model and SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. By confirming the correlation (more than 0.96) and the efficiency coefficient of the model (more than 0.82), the trend of temperature values using modified Mann-Kendall test and temperature concentration index (TCI) values in the sub-basins of Zayanderood Dam, Iran was estimated. The results indicated a non-significant upward trend in the base period (1984–2015) and a significant increasing trend at the level of 5% in the future period (2015–2100) produced by the mentioned scenarios. According to the slope of the trend line, an increase of 1.45, 4 and 9.8 degrees Celsius is predicted during the period of 2015–2100 according to the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The evaluation of changes in TCI values in the studied area showed that in the future period, the distribution of rainfall patterns will be regular and the uniformity of temperature distribution in the SSP585 scenario is more than in the other two scenarios. The results of the temperature pattern distribution in the study area showed that according to the upcoming climate changes and under the studied scenarios, it is expected that while the study area is warming in the future, the uniformity of the temperature distribution will also appear in the months of the year. This shows the reduction of temperature fluctuations and the uniformity of the average temperature in the months of the year. The reduction of TCI values shows the equalization of average temperature changes in the seasons. The results of the investigations showed that the combination of climate change scenarios with the TCI can well show the concentration and distribution of the temperature in different periods.

Abstract Image

根据气候变化调查扎扬德鲁德温度浓度分布的可能性
本研究在 CanESM5 气候模式和 SSP126、SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下,研究了 1984-2015 年和 2015-2100 年期间的气温变化及其浓度分布。通过确认模型的相关性(大于 0.96)和效率系数(大于 0.82),利用修正的 Mann-Kendall 检验和温度浓度指数(TCI)值估算了伊朗 Zayanderood 大坝子流域的温度值趋势。结果表明,基期(1984-2015 年)的上升趋势并不明显,而在所述情景下,未来时期(2015-2100 年)的上升趋势明显(5%)。根据趋势线的斜率,按照 SSP126、SSP245 和 SSP585 预测,2015-2100 年期间的气温将分别上升 1.45、4 和 9.8 摄氏度。对研究区域 TCI 值变化的评估结果表明,在未来一段时间内,SSP585 情景下的降雨模式分布将是有规律的,温度分布的均匀性也高于其他两个情景。研究区域的气温模式分布结果表明,根据即将发生的气候变化和所研究的情景,预计未来研究区域在变暖的同时,全年各月的气温分布也将趋于均匀。这表明气温波动减小,全年各月平均气温趋于一致。TCI 值的降低表明四季平均温度变化趋于一致。研究结果表明,将气候变化情景与 TCI 相结合,可以很好地显示不同时期气温的浓度和分布。
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来源期刊
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
5.90%
发文量
43
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans is an international journal for research related to the dynamical and physical processes governing atmospheres, oceans and climate. Authors are invited to submit articles, short contributions or scholarly reviews in the following areas: •Dynamic meteorology •Physical oceanography •Geophysical fluid dynamics •Climate variability and climate change •Atmosphere-ocean-biosphere-cryosphere interactions •Prediction and predictability •Scale interactions Papers of theoretical, computational, experimental and observational investigations are invited, particularly those that explore the fundamental nature - or bring together the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary aspects - of dynamical and physical processes at all scales. Papers that explore air-sea interactions and the coupling between atmospheres, oceans, and other components of the climate system are particularly welcome.
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